Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US fiscal concerns have intensified due to the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which is projected to increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, coinciding with already high levels of debt and deficit as a share of GDP [26][29] - Experts like Ray Dalio, Kenneth Rogoff, and Niall Ferguson express heightened concern about the US fiscal trajectory, indicating that the current situation is different from past fiscal worries due to higher real interest rates and unsustainable debt levels [27][28][31] - The report suggests that while tariff revenues may offset some deficit impacts, the overall fiscal position remains unsustainable in the long term [29][71] Summary by Sections US Fiscal Concerns - The US deficit and debt are at their highest levels outside of crisis periods, with interest expenses also reaching record highs [46][49] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is expected to worsen the fiscal outlook, increasing the primary deficit by approximately $2.4 trillion through 2034 [72][73] Expert Opinions - Ray Dalio warns of an impending crisis due to a "big debt cycle" where the cost of servicing debt becomes unsustainable [27] - Kenneth Rogoff highlights the rise in real interest rates as a critical factor that exacerbates the fiscal burden, predicting a potential crisis within four to five years [55][57] - Niall Ferguson notes that the US is violating "Ferguson's Law," where debt service costs now exceed defense spending, marking a significant shift in fiscal dynamics [28] Market Implications - The report anticipates that US long-end rates will likely remain high, and the Dollar is expected to weaken further as US exceptionalism diminishes [34][36] - Experts recommend diversifying investments across asset classes and countries with strong fiscal positions while underweighting debt assets [34][44]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Snowflake Inc. with a target price of $208.61 [18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the central role of platforms like Databricks and Snowflake in enterprise AI transformation, highlighting their rapid innovation and the shift of value from infrastructure to platforms and applications [1][5]. - Databricks' product innovations, including Lakebase, Agent Bricks, and Databricks Apps, are designed to enhance AI adoption and streamline the development of AI-driven applications [1][4]. - The demand for data and analytics solutions remains strong, with enterprises increasingly moving AI workloads into production, indicating a higher maturity in enterprise AI compared to the previous year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Databricks Innovations - Databricks introduced Lakebase, a serverless database designed for AI applications, which offers low-latency performance and autoscaling capabilities [4]. - The company reported that Databricks Apps has become its fastest-growing product, with over 2,500 customers and more than 20,000 applications created since its launch [5][9]. - Agent Bricks provides a framework for building enterprise-grade AI agents, reflecting the growing trend of deploying Agentic AI in enterprises [5][6]. Market Dynamics - Partner feedback indicates a healthy demand environment for data solutions, with enterprises willing to invest in AI technologies [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Snowflake narrowing the gap with Databricks in AI services and features [8]. - Enterprises like JPMorgan are deploying numerous AI use cases, with significant annual spending on AI, reinforcing the sustainability of AI growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - Databricks reported over $2.6 billion in revenue for FY25, representing more than 60% growth, and is targeting a revenue run-rate of $3.7 billion for the upcoming quarter [9]. - The company reached free cash flow breakeven in FY25 and emphasized its commitment to innovation and R&D, with R&D spending at 32% of revenue [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is Neutral with a 12-month target price of Rmb30.6, reflecting a cautious view on the saturated surveillance market and macro uncertainties [1][13][15]. Core Insights - Hikvision is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenues, projecting a 5% year-over-year growth in 2Q25, reaching Rmb24.7 billion, driven by better seasonality and expansion in overseas and innovative business [1]. - The company is focusing on higher-margin business segments and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including the launch of the Guanlan AI Model for complex scenario analysis [2][15]. - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 26%, 19%, and 18% respectively, primarily due to lower revenue expectations from the China Public Sector Business (PBG) and Small-medium Enterprise Business (SMBG) [3][7]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - Revenue projections for Hikvision are as follows: - 2025E: Rmb106.4 billion (down 8% from previous estimates) - 2026E: Rmb120.3 billion (down 7%) - 2027E: Rmb130.5 billion (down 7%) [7][17]. - Gross margin (GM) is expected to be 44.1% in 2025, with slight fluctuations in subsequent years [7][11]. Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Hikvision are revised to Rmb1.55 for 2025, Rmb1.85 for 2026, and Rmb2.06 for 2027, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [7][17]. - Operating profit (OP) is expected to decline significantly, with a projected Rmb15.3 billion for 2025, down 28% from earlier estimates [7]. Market Position and Strategy - Hikvision is positioned as a global leader in the surveillance industry, benefiting from potential industry consolidation and expanding into AI surveillance and innovative business areas for long-term growth [15]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its solutions to include emergency response, safe production, and cost-saving measures, while also enhancing its AI capabilities to improve operational efficiency [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently positioned to wait for more clarity before making adjustments to monetary policy, with a high bar for cutting rates due to uncertainty and above-target inflation [3][6]. - There are mixed views among FOMC participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent, while others express concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored [3][7]. - The economic implications of tariffs are significant, with potential for both upward pressure on prices and negative effects on employment, particularly in sectors reliant on imported materials [7][8]. Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to push up prices, but the extent of the increase and its impact on growth and employment remains uncertain [7]. - Three channels through which tariffs could have a persistent influence on inflation include increased short-run inflation expectations, opportunistic pricing by firms, and lower productivity leading to upward price pressure [7]. - The FOMC acknowledges that tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, with potential long-term effects depending on how trade policy evolves [7][8]. Balance of Risks - Current data suggests that the Fed is close to meeting its inflation mandate, with inflation at 2.1 percent in April [8]. - There are greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth in the future [8]. - The balance of risks is closely tied to the evolution of trade policy, with uncertainty remaining about the ultimate levels of tariffs and their economic impact [8]. Inflation and Inflation Expectations - Recent inflation data has been subdued, but expectations are that tariffs will soon reflect in prices [11]. - Estimates indicate that tariffs have raised overall core PCE prices by 0.2% through April, suggesting a quick pass-through of tariffs into prices [11]. - While short-term inflation expectations have risen sharply, longer-term expectations remain stable [11]. Growth and Labor Market Outlook - The labor market is currently near maximum employment, but trade and policy changes could raise the unemployment rate [12]. - There are indications that economic activity may be starting to slow, with expectations of slower growth compared to the previous year [12][14]. - Businesses are preparing for potential workforce reductions if uncertainty persists, indicating a cautious outlook on economic activity [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates a positive adjustment in GDP growth forecasts and a reduction in recession probability, suggesting a more favorable outlook for economic conditions [3][15][18]. Core Insights - Recent developments indicate a smaller impact of tariffs on the economy, leading to an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1% to 1.25% [3][15]. - The peak unemployment rate forecast has been adjusted downwards by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [3][15]. - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has been reduced from 35% to 30% due to a higher growth baseline and reduced downside risks [3][17]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact of Tariffs - The report estimates a roughly 0.25 percentage point smaller peak hit to GDP growth from tariffs than previously anticipated, influenced by limited evidence of tariff impacts on consumer prices and easing financial conditions [3][12][15]. - Inflation forecasts for core PCE have been lowered, now expected to peak at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.6% [5][15]. Financial Conditions - Broad financial conditions have returned to levels similar to those before the imposition of tariffs, indicating a more stable economic environment [6][11]. - Measures of trade policy uncertainty have moderated, which is expected to positively influence business investment [7][11]. Federal Reserve Forecast - The report maintains the expectation of the first of three normalization cuts in the Fed funds rate occurring in December, with two additional cuts in 2026, targeting a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% [20][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) with a price target raised to $195 from $145, reflecting a potential upside of 10.6% from the current price of $176.38 [1]. Core Insights - Oracle's strong F4Q results exceeded consensus expectations in revenue (+2%) and gross profit (+1%), although free cash flow (FCF) was significantly below expectations due to a 140% increase in capital expenditures [1]. - The company anticipates a 100 basis points increase in FY26 revenue guidance, with a solid performance in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which grew 41% year-over-year [1]. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure (IaaS) is expected to grow over 70% in FY26, driven by a 62% increase in OCI consumption, indicating strong demand [1]. - The company aims to double its RPO in FY26, excluding Stargate contributions, reflecting a robust OCI pipeline [1]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the ambitious growth targets for both IaaS and SaaS, which may be challenging to achieve given the current macroeconomic constraints [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for Oracle are updated to $57.4 billion for FY25, $67.1 billion for FY26, $80.6 billion for FY27, and $92.8 billion for FY28 [3]. - EBITDA is projected to grow from $31.2 billion in FY25 to $54.5 billion in FY28, indicating a strong upward trend [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures, projected at approximately $25 billion for FY26, raising questions about its impact on future earnings [1][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Oracle is positioned as a strong player in the IaaS market, gaining traction with major customers like Uber and TikTok, despite being a distant fourth compared to hyperscalers [15]. - The company is also focusing on its strategic back-office applications, which are experiencing steady growth, particularly through its NetSuite and Fusion ERP offerings [15]. - Long-term targets include achieving over $104 billion in revenue by FY29, with a commitment to AI investments underpinning this growth [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 26.0 for FY25, decreasing to 17.9 by FY28, indicating a potential for improved valuation as earnings grow [9]. - Free cash flow yield is projected to improve from negative in FY25 to 0.9% by FY28, reflecting a recovery in cash generation capabilities [9]. - The report notes that Oracle's valuation at 22x FY27 P/E reflects a balanced risk-reward scenario until further evidence of growth materializes [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but provides insights into market conditions and forecasts for the S&P 500 [2][4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 6,500 by 2026, with adjusted EPS expected to be $280 [7]. - The report highlights a projected 12-month total return of 9% for the S&P 500, compared to a historical median of 13% [11]. - Economic growth forecasts indicate a rise in the US effective tariff rate by 13 percentage points, impacting market dynamics [30]. - The report notes that the US real GDP growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 [34]. - The equity market is currently positioned lightly at -1.3 standard deviations, indicating potential for upward movement [20]. Summary by Sections Economy and Earnings - The report discusses the correlation between macroeconomic factors and individual stock returns, with macro factors explaining 42% of median S&P 500 stock returns [13]. - It also mentions that actual 1Q EPS growth was 12%, significantly above the consensus of 6% [45]. Valuation - Investors are currently assigning a valuation premium for quality factors, with various metrics indicating a preference for companies with strong fundamentals [17]. Money Flow and Demand for Stocks - The report indicates that market breadth has narrowed, which could signal momentum risk for the S&P 500 [23][27]. Corporate Uses of Cash - Companies are increasingly focused on passing through increased input costs to maintain profit margins, with a significant percentage indicating plans to adjust prices accordingly [61]. AI Adoption - The report does not provide specific insights on AI adoption within the industry but emphasizes the importance of companies with pricing power in the current economic environment [65].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in global equity fund flows, with net outflows of $10 billion for the week ending June 11, contrasting with inflows of $5 billion in the previous week [3] Core Insights - There were significant net outflows from equity funds, particularly in G10 markets, while fixed income funds experienced robust inflows, particularly in emerging markets [3][9] - Emerging market local currency bond funds saw strong inflows, indicating a preference for these assets amidst the broader market trends [3][9] - The report highlights a shift in investor preference towards short-duration bond funds over long-duration options [3][9] Summary by Sections Global Fund Flows - Total equity experienced net outflows of $18.2 billion over the past four weeks, with a weekly outflow of $10 billion [9] - Fixed income funds saw inflows of $77.1 billion, with $15.1 billion in the latest week, driven by demand for credit products [9] - Money market funds had a decline of $9.1 billion in assets [9] Equity Flows - Developed markets saw significant outflows, particularly from US equities, which had outflows of $24.2 billion [9] - Emerging markets showed mixed results, with mainland China experiencing outflows of $7.2 billion, while Taiwan and Brazil saw inflows of $4.7 billion and $0.8 billion respectively [9] Fixed Income Flows - Total fixed income inflows were $77.1 billion, with $64.2 billion from developed markets [9] - Emerging market fixed income funds had inflows of $10.8 billion, with local currency bonds being particularly favored [9] FX Flows - Cross-border FX flows remained elevated at $56.4 billion, with G10 currencies attracting strong inflows [11] - The report notes that the South Korean won (KRW) saw the strongest net inflows among Asian currencies [11] Sector Flows - Consumer goods funds saw the largest net inflows, while technology funds experienced the greatest net outflows [3][9] - The report indicates a notable preference for sectors such as consumer goods and utilities, contrasting with the outflows from technology and financial sectors [9]

13 June 2025 | 7:27PM BST Global Rates Trader Inflation Offers Relief, Oil Offers Risks Inflation relief for global bond markets was short-lived as geopolitical tensions saw oil prices move sharply higher into the weekend. Even with some improvement in the underlying growth versus inflation trade-off and signs of duration risk appetite finding better footing, the macro impediments to a sharp move lower in US yields remain largely in place. Heading into the June FOMC decision, we continue to think any sustai ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing monetization of AI applications, with software vendors beginning to charge for AI software while balancing commercialization and user expansion [2][6] - The monthly active users (MAU) of single ToC AI applications have surpassed 10 million, with a paying ratio ranging from 3% to 13% [6][13] - AI pricing strategies vary, with ToC AI tools priced between US$20 and US$200 per user annually, while ToB applications range from US$80 to US$1,000 per user per year [7][28] - The emergence of multiple AI models in China has reduced training and inferencing costs, making AI more accessible to users [2][17] Summary by Sections Monetization Progress - AI software vendors are starting to charge for their products, with the revenue contribution from AI software still low, ranging from single digits to high teens [6][19] - The number of enterprise clients for single AI software is targeted to exceed 1,000 units this year [16] Pricing Strategy - ToC AI tools are generally priced between US$20 and US$200 per user annually, while ToB applications charge between US$3,000 and US$20,000 per enterprise per year [7][28] - Vendors often provide trial periods of 7 to 30 days to attract users [7] User Cases - The report categorizes AI applications into four segments: AI creation, AI productivity, AI industry tools, and AI enterprise services [10][34] - Key user cases include AI search, video creativity, productivity tools for consumers, and enterprise applications in finance, HR, and procurement [2][10] Competitive Landscape - Companies like Kingsoft Office, Meitu, Wondershare, and iFlytek are identified as early beneficiaries of AI monetization [3][6] - The competition is intensifying as platform vendors offer general AI assistants with multiple features, challenging specialized AI application vendors [19] Future Outlook - The report suggests that software vendors view AI as a key growth driver in the coming years, with expectations for further reductions in API token fees and increased user adoption [6][19] - The focus for ToB vendors is on generating higher ROI through AI tools that can perform complex tasks independently [18]