Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price of HKD 82.24 [7][12] Core Insights - The demand for ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) continues to grow, with the company experiencing significant order increases and steady capacity expansion [1][2] - WuXi AppTec is reaffirmed as a leader in the global ADC/XDC CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) sector, with strong upward momentum in performance [1][7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.701 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 733 million, up nearly 70% [2] - The overseas revenue contribution reached 82%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The company's market share in the global ADC CRDMO market rose from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [2] Industry Dynamics - The ADC/XDC sector shows strong long-term growth potential, with four ADC products approved for market from Q4 2024 to H1 2025, and many more expected in the next 3-5 years [2] - There are approximately 2,200 candidate conjugated drugs globally, with 21% being new ADCs, indicating a robust pipeline for future development [2] Client Expansion and Orders - In H1 2025, the company signed 37 new iCMC contracts, a historical high for the period, with expectations for the total number of new projects in 2025 to exceed the previous two years [3] - The backlog of orders reached USD 1.329 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, with North America leading in new contracts [3] - The company added 64 new clients in H1 2025, maintaining active collaborations with 13 of the top 20 multinational corporations, contributing approximately 33% of revenue [3] Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency - WuXi AppTec is set to launch new production facilities in Wuxi and Singapore, with a planned capital expenditure exceeding RMB 7 billion by 2029 [4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.1%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement in 2025 [4] - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 27.1%, reflecting a positive trend amid company growth [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.72 billion, RMB 2.37 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 34% [5] - The target price is based on a PEG ratio of 1.59x, consistent with comparable company expectations [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) to "Buy" [1][9]. Core Views - The company achieved impressive performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 25.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.622 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year [4][9]. - The strong recovery in bottled water sales and double-digit growth in ready-to-drink tea revenue were highlighted, driven by improved public sentiment and increased domestic tourism [5][7]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in 2025, with a projected revenue increase of double digits and improved profit margins due to cost advantages and product structure optimization [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Nongfu Spring's gross margin reached 60.3%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and improved revenue scale [6]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 19.6%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, due to reduced advertising and promotional expenses [6]. Product Categories - Bottled Water: Revenue of 9.443 billion yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year, supported by improved public sentiment and increased consumer awareness of natural water [5][7]. - Ready-to-Drink Tea: Revenue of 10.089 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, driven by the brand's strong market position and successful promotional activities [5][8]. - Functional Beverages: Revenue of 2.898 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year, due to enhanced brand exposure [5]. - Juice Beverages: Revenue of 2.564 billion yuan, a 21.3% increase year-on-year, supported by new product launches and channel expansion [5]. - Other Products: Revenue of 629 million yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year, reflecting the company's adaptation to health trends [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 14.838 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.4% [10]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the ready-to-drink tea segment and a recovery in bottled water sales, with a focus on new product development and market expansion [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and HK stocks [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight fluctuation in risk during 2Q25, with loan volume decreasing by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter to 84.6 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 3.7% to 1.73 billion RMB [1][2]. - The implementation of the "New Regulations on Internet Lending" on October 1 is expected to be the biggest uncertainty for the industry, potentially affecting business models and profitability, but may lead to a more optimized competitive environment in the long term as non-compliant small platforms are phased out [1][3]. - The company aims to provide stable shareholder returns, having utilized 277 million USD of its 450 million USD buyback plan as of August 14 [3]. Loan Quality - In 2Q25, the risk slightly increased, with C-M2 rising to 0.64% (from 0.60% in 1Q25), and the first-day overdue rate increasing to 5.1% (from 5.0% in 1Q25) [2]. - The 30-day repayment rate decreased to 87.3% (from 88.1% in 1Q25), indicating potential short-term volatility in risk due to liquidity tightening from the new regulations [2]. Loan Volume - The new loan volume in 2Q25 was 84.6 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [2]. - The company has reduced its light capital loan volume ratio to 41% (from 49% in 1Q25), indicating a more cautious approach from funding sources [2]. Funding Costs - Current funding costs are at a relatively low level, with limited potential for significant further reductions in the future [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, 7.49 billion RMB, and 7.93 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The target prices are set at 53.7 USD for US stocks and 210.5 HKD for HK stocks, based on a PE of 6.5x for 2025 [4][10].

本报告导读： 股 票 研 财务费用大幅节省，业绩超预期 粤海投资(0270) 2025 年中报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 邵潇(分析师) | 0755-23976520 | shaoxiao@gtht.com | S0880517070004 | | 52 周内股价区间(港元) | 4.06-7.22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 6,538 | | 当前市值(百万港元) | 47,203 | 2025H1 公司归母净利润 26.82 亿港元，同比增长 11%。利润增加主要由于财务费用 减少，以及持续经营业务投资物业公允值调整产生的净亏损减少所贡献。 投资要点： 风险提示：分红低于预期、东江水项目续约低于预期等。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 4.0, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 2.8 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has released historical impairment pressures and is positioned for future growth, with a total supply chain asset volume of CNY 203.6 billion expected by H1 2025, driven by strong performance in its multi-level circulation cloud segment [2]. - Despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 9.3% to CNY 375 million, the company is optimizing its business structure and maintaining a cautious impairment provision strategy, resulting in an adjusted net loss of CNY 372 million [2][3]. - The company has committed to a share buyback of no less than USD 8 million in the next 12 months, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of CNY 867.76 million, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous year, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.03 billion for 2024 [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 was a loss of CNY 286.27 million, with forecasts indicating a continued loss of CNY 748.18 million in 2024, but a return to profitability is expected by 2026 with a net profit of CNY 171.95 million [6][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 80.3% by 2026, up from 60.7% in 2023 [10]. Business Segments - The core business, particularly the multi-level circulation cloud, is expected to handle supply chain assets totaling CNY 1.332 trillion by H1 2025, marking a year-over-year growth of 54.4% [3]. - The AMS cloud segment is currently under pressure, with a 20.2% decline in supply chain asset handling to CNY 29.9 billion, primarily due to market conditions [3]. - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with cross-border cloud assets and revenues growing by 20.3% to CNY 26 million, driven by increased financing and service fees [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue growth of 14.3% despite a relatively weak domestic consumption environment [9]. - The operating profit margin has improved by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to refined operations and increased contributions from high-margin brands [9]. - The main brands, Anta and Fila, are expected to maintain steady growth, while other brands like Descente and Kolon are projected to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to overall revenue [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.80, 5.54, and 6.21 RMB respectively, with a target price of 135.86 HKD based on a 26x PE valuation for 2025 [4][10]. - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 62,356 million RMB in 2023, growing to 97,528 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 10,236 million RMB in 2023, with a forecasted increase to 17,427 million RMB by 2027 [4][12]. Company Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 62.6% in 2023, with projections indicating a slight decline to 62.5% by 2027 [4][12]. - The net profit margin is expected to fluctuate from 16.4% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2027, reflecting stable profitability [4][12]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 18.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, indicating a slight reduction in efficiency over the forecast period [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 25.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.62 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The growth in revenue is driven by the recovery in packaged water sales, continued high growth in tea beverages, and strong performance in functional drinks and juices [2][8] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 60.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material prices and increased production capacity utilization [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from water, tea, functional drinks, juices, and other beverages grew by 10.7%, 19.7%, 13.6%, 21.3%, and 14.8% respectively, with total revenues reaching 9.44 billion, 10.09 billion, 2.90 billion, 2.56 billion, and 0.63 billion yuan [2][8] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [1][7] Cost and Efficiency - The company experienced a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2.8 percentage points due to lower advertising and promotional expenses, as well as reduced logistics costs [3][9] - The management expense ratio remained stable year-on-year, while other income as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.5 percentage points due to lower interest income from deposits [3][9] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 50.53 billion, 57.28 billion, and 63.70 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 13.3%, and 11.2% respectively [4][16] - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.16 billion, 17.45 billion, and 19.60 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.0%, 15.1%, and 12.3% [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21, while the current price is HKD 16.20 [4][7]. Core Views - The revenue performance is under pressure, but operating profit margin (OPM) has improved, indicating a focus on quality and returns despite external demand challenges [4][7]. - The company is expected to face continued revenue pressure in the second half of the year, but profitability is anticipated to recover due to cost benefits and improved operational efficiency [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Total revenue is projected to decline from HKD 88.675 billion in 2024 to HKD 81.210 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [4][13]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from HKD 105 million in 2024 to HKD 4.511 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4216.4% [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from HKD 0.03 in 2024 to HKD 1.16 in 2025, with further growth to HKD 1.36 and HKD 1.56 in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][13]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 554 in 2024 to 13 in 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [4][13]. Segment Performance - **Product Categories**: Liquid milk revenue decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, while infant formula and ice cream showed positive growth of 2.5% and 15% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across product lines [7][8]. - **Cost Management**: The company benefited from lower raw milk prices, leading to a gross margin increase to 41.75% in the first half of 2025, up by 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that while external demand remains weak, the company’s inventory management is healthy, and operational improvements are expected to support profitability recovery in the second half of the year [7][8].

纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 28 日 安踏体育 (02020) —— 中报表现超预期，多品牌发力再现高成长性 上 市 公 司 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 101.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9020.26 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 107.50/68.35 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,852.13 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,807.21 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0953 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -5% 15% 35% 55% HSCEI 安踏体育 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23297818× liupei@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位：人民币 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) [2] Core Views - The underwriting performance is strong, with a significant increase in underwriting profit by 44.6% year-on-year [5] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 32.3% year-on-year to CNY 24.455 billion, with a second quarter net profit growth of 4.1% year-on-year to CNY 13.143 billion [5] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 94.8%, aligning with expectations [5] - The company has increased its stock allocation by 2 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating a positive shift in investment strategy [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total investment assets reached CNY 711.48 billion, a 5.2% increase from the end of 2024 [5] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 36.852 billion, CNY 40.899 billion, and CNY 47.124 billion respectively, up from previous forecasts [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is CNY 1.66, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.25 [7] Business Segments - In the auto insurance segment, premium income increased by 3.4% year-on-year to CNY 144.065 billion, with underwriting profit rising by 67.7% year-on-year to CNY 8.726 billion [8] - The non-auto insurance segment also saw growth, with premium income up by 3.8% year-on-year to CNY 179.217 billion, and underwriting profit increasing by 13.0% year-on-year to CNY 4.289 billion [8]