Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 26.00 and a fair value of HKD 31.92 [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 37.985 billion for 2025, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.371 billion, down 28.9% year-on-year. However, after adjusting for goodwill impairment and other factors, the adjusted EBITDA increased by 9.9% to RMB 9.879 billion, and the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 19.6% to RMB 5.724 billion [7]. - The beer business showed stable performance, with a volume increase of 1.4% and a cost per ton decrease of 1.4% in 2025. The gross margin for the beer business improved by 1.4 percentage points to 42.5% [7]. - The white liquor business faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 30.4% due to industry adjustments, leading to a goodwill impairment of RMB 2.88 billion [7]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing by 1.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost management [7]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of RMB 3.32 billion, representing 58% of the adjusted net profit, sharing operational benefits with shareholders [7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see net profit attributable to shareholders grow by 80.3%, 9.3%, and 9.0% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, reaching RMB 6.077 billion, RMB 6.639 billion, and RMB 7.236 billion, respectively [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are RMB 1.87, RMB 2.05, and RMB 2.23, respectively [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 12, 11, and 10 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has maintained steady growth in its third-party business, with a notable improvement in profit margins. For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported total revenue of 6.613 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.12%, and a net profit of 854 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [11][12]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.5968 HKD per share, totaling 510 million RMB [11]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 will be 0.98, 1.09, and 1.22 RMB, respectively, and assigns a target price of 27.84 HKD based on a 25x PE for 2026 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 6.613 billion RMB for 2025, 7.139 billion RMB for 2026, 7.786 billion RMB for 2027, and 8.580 billion RMB for 2028, with respective growth rates of 1.1%, 8.0%, 9.1%, and 10.2% [5]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.165 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 32.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 854 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 12.91% [12]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's gross margin, which reached 35.24% in the second half of 2025, up 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Business Performance - The company's third-party business revenue for the second half of 2025 was 2.718 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.42%, while related party revenue was 967 million RMB, a decrease of 1.77% [11]. - The report notes that the company experienced growth in overseas and compound seasoning businesses, with overseas revenue increasing by 31.02% year-on-year [11]. - The report also highlights that the company has implemented channel reforms that may have contributed to the improvement in profit margins [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight decline in revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% to 37.985 billion RMB in 2025. However, the gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 43.1%. EBITDA decreased by 13.7% to 7.701 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 28.9% to 3.371 billion RMB. Excluding special items, EBITDA increased by 9.9% to 9.879 billion RMB, and net profit rose by 19.6% to 5.724 billion RMB [3][4]. - Beer sales showed steady growth, with revenue from beer reaching 36.490 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year. Beer sales volume increased by 1.4% to 11.03 million kiloliters. The high-end beer segment continued to perform well, with premium and above beer sales growing by nearly 10%, and the overall high-end beer products accounting for nearly 25% of total sales [3][4]. - The company is focusing on innovation in its beer product line, launching new products such as health-oriented beers and expanding its production capacity by optimizing its brewery layout [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported total revenue of 37.99 billion RMB, with a projected revenue increase to 39.21 billion RMB in 2026, 40.86 billion RMB in 2027, and 42.58 billion RMB in 2028. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound significantly to 5.92 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 75.6% [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.04 RMB, projected to rise to 1.82 RMB in 2026, 1.96 RMB in 2027, and 2.07 RMB in 2028 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth and is actively acquiring land, indicating that its performance has reached a bottom [1] - In 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 113.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, making it the only company among the top 10 to show positive growth [6] - The company’s financing costs have continued to decline, with an average new financing cost of 2.75% in 2025, down 64 basis points from the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 59,053 million RMB - 2025: 59,371 million RMB - 2026E: 54,525 million RMB - 2027E: 51,099 million RMB - 2028E: 49,190 million RMB - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 701 million RMB - 2025: 592 million RMB - 2026E: 737 million RMB - 2027E: 822 million RMB - 2028E: 998 million RMB - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.99% in 2024 to 2.87% in 2028 [5][7] Sales and Land Acquisition - In 2025, the company’s sales area was 4.79 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, while the average sales price increased by 40.1% to 23,700 RMB per square meter [6] - The land acquisition amount in 2025 was 57.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 73%, with a land acquisition/sales amount ratio of 51% [6] Market Position - The company ranks 8th in the industry, improving its position by 4 places year-on-year, and has a significant unsold inventory valued at approximately 278.6 billion RMB, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of HK$185.00 based on a current price of HK$165.00 [1][2]. Core Insights - The fiber super-cycle is just beginning, driven by a structural change in supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases for optical fibers expected to continue until at least 2027 [5][7]. - The company has maintained its position as the global leader in market share for nine consecutive years, with a unique vertical integration in optical preform production that enhances profit elasticity [2][14]. - The next-generation optical fiber technology positions the company favorably, with potential upside in valuation not fully reflected in current estimates [2][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a significant increase from Rmb 12.2 billion in FY24 to Rmb 27.2 billion in FY26, representing a 100% year-over-year growth [1][37]. - Net profit is expected to surge from Rmb 676 million in FY24 to Rmb 5.4 billion in FY26, indicating a 534% increase [1][37]. - The gross profit margin is projected to rise from 27.3% in FY24 to 41.1% in FY26, reflecting improved pricing power and operational efficiency [1][37]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for optical fibers is driven by three concurrent forces: AI data centers, military applications, and telecommunications, creating a unique supply-demand mismatch [6][7]. - The supply side is constrained, with global optical preform capacity operating at full load and an expansion cycle of 1.5 to 2 years, limiting new capacity release [8][9]. - The report anticipates that the price of G.652D optical fibers will remain elevated, with projections of Rmb 60 per kilometer in the base case scenario for FY26 [12][24]. Valuation - The target price of HK$185 is based on a 25x forward P/E ratio for FY26, reflecting the current pricing cycle's magnitude and sustainability [2][24]. - The valuation is supported by a comparison with global peers, indicating that the company's current valuation is attractive relative to its growth prospects and market position [31][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.737 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.692 billion yuan, up 16.08% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue is significantly driven by the battery box segment, which saw a 41.06% increase in revenue to 7.529 billion yuan [7] - The company is expanding its liquid cooling business and has made strides in AI, robotics, and low-altitude economy sectors, indicating a focus on diversifying its growth avenues [7] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 23.147 billion yuan - 2025: 25.737 billion yuan - 2026: 31.104 billion yuan - 2027: 36.312 billion yuan - 2028: 42.398 billion yuan - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 2.319 billion yuan - 2025: 2.692 billion yuan - 2026: 3.257 billion yuan - 2027: 3.878 billion yuan - 2028: 4.660 billion yuan - EPS Forecast: - 2024: 1.96 yuan - 2025: 2.28 yuan - 2026: 2.75 yuan - 2027: 3.28 yuan - 2028: 3.94 yuan - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.553 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.868 billion RMB, up 30.89% year-on-year [1] - The packaging water segment showed steady growth with a revenue of 18.709 billion RMB in 2025, a 17.28% increase year-on-year, and a profit of 7.001 billion RMB, reflecting a 40.86% increase year-on-year [1] - The tea beverage segment experienced rapid growth, achieving a revenue of 21.596 billion RMB in 2025, up 28.97% year-on-year, with a profit of 10.374 billion RMB, a 37.18% increase year-on-year [1] - The company benefits from cost advantages, with a gross margin of 60.53% in 2025, up 2.44 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 30.19%, up 1.93 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to continue its long-term growth strategy, with projected net profits of 18.3 billion RMB, 21.1 billion RMB, and 24 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, indicating growth rates of 15.3% for 2026 and 2027, and 13.6% for 2028 [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 52.553 billion RMB and a net profit of 15.868 billion RMB, with projected revenues of 59.917 billion RMB, 67.856 billion RMB, and 76.384 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is reported at 1.41 RMB, with projections of 1.63 RMB, 1.88 RMB, and 2.13 RMB for the following years [5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.5 for 2025, expected to decrease to 23.0 in 2026 and further to 19.9 in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total vehicle delivery of 116,249 units in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.9% for the entire year, with revenue reaching 76.71 billion yuan, up 87.7% year-on-year [7] - The Q4 gross margin was 21.3%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan [7] - The company expects Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries to be between 61,000 and 66,000 units, with projected revenue of 12.2 to 13.28 billion yuan [7] - The main growth driver for 2026 is anticipated to be the new MONA series SUV, while other business segments are expected to continue steady growth [7] - The company is focusing on integrating valuation for its frontier technology business and exploring opportunities in robotaxi services [7] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are 96.03 billion yuan, 119.15 billion yuan, and 144.15 billion yuan, with net profits of 477 million yuan, 4.03 billion yuan, and 7.51 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 40.87 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -18.51% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 477 million yuan in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 260.71 [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 18.95% by 2028 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 162.44 billion yuan by 2028, with total liabilities of 120.06 billion yuan [8]

证券研究报告 海底捞 (6862 HK) 港股通 期待战略聚焦下的新成长周期 2026 年 3 月 25 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 3 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 20.92 | | 海底捞公布 | 2025 年全年业绩：2025 | 年公司实现营业收入 | 432.25 亿元 | 樊俊豪 SAC No. S0570524050001 | 研究员 fanjunhao@htsc.com | | /yoy+1.1%；核心经营利润 | | 54.03 亿元/yoy-13.3%，对应核心经营利润率 | | SFC No. BDO986 | +(852) 3658 6000 | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 zengjun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S05 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4Q25 at 4.84 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.2%, which is in line with market expectations [1][2]. - Operating profit for the quarter was 350 million RMB, down 26.7% year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment and adjustments in the tourism segment [3]. - Adjusted net profit reached 780 million RMB, exceeding expectations by 3.3% and showing an 18.1% year-over-year increase [3][5]. - The company is optimistic about the resilience of domestic tourism demand and the long-term growth potential in international business and hotel management [1]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 4Q25 was 4.84 billion RMB, with the core OTA business generating 1.31 billion RMB from accommodation bookings, up 15.4% year-over-year [2]. - The transportation ticketing segment showed steady performance with revenue of 1.84 billion RMB, a 6.5% increase year-over-year, driven by increased user demand and enriched value-added products [2]. - Other business revenue, benefiting from strong hotel management performance and the strategic acquisition of Wanda Hotels and Resorts, reached 917 million RMB, up 53.0% year-over-year [2]. Profitability Analysis - The core OTA operating profit was 1.15 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%, aligning with expectations [3]. - The vacation business reported an operating loss of 430 million RMB, attributed to strategic reductions in the buyout business scale and weak tourism demand in Southeast Asia and Japan [3]. - The company confirmed a goodwill impairment of 453 million RMB in the vacation business, which significantly impacted overall operating profit [3]. Growth Potential - The international ticket booking volume saw significant year-over-year growth, contributing 7% to total transportation ticketing revenue [4]. - The company aims to increase the contribution of international business revenue to 10%-15% over the next 2-3 years, positioning it as a key growth driver [4]. - The proprietary app has shown strong user engagement, with daily active users increasing by over 30% year-over-year, supported by the AI travel planning tool DeepTrip [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 21.6 billion RMB, 24 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 3.9 billion RMB, 4.4 billion RMB, and 4.5 billion RMB [5][11]. - The target price for the company is set at 29.9 HKD, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a slight discount compared to comparable global OTA platforms [5][12].