Core Viewpoint - Public funds predict that 2026 is likely to be a significant turning point for oil prices in the medium to long term, and gold is expected to break through $6,000 [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Predictions - The geopolitical fluctuations are expected to have a major impact on resource asset prices, particularly oil, with a focus on supply and strategic positioning [3]. - The global capital expenditure cycle for oil is at a critical juncture, with demand and supply curves set to intersect, indicating a potential mismatch in the medium to long term [4]. - Historical data shows that military conflicts have varying impacts on energy prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Public funds believe that gold prices will benefit from geopolitical tensions and are expected to rise significantly, with major financial institutions forecasting a potential breakthrough of $6,000 [5][6]. - Factors supporting gold prices include ongoing central bank purchases, the erosion of the dollar's long-term credibility, and systemic risks arising from geopolitical fragmentation [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "HALO" strategy emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on industry cycles, suggesting that the revival in 2026 will be driven by new demand and barriers [7]. - Traditional safe-haven assets such as energy stocks, government bonds, and gold are recommended for hedging against current risks, while a diversified portfolio remains crucial for long-term investment success [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a fund manager ranking list that not only reflects past performance but also provides guidance for future investment opportunities, aiming to identify managers who can outperform the market [1][11]. Group 1: Purpose of the Ranking List - The increasing number of funds (over 20,000) has made it difficult for investors to select the right ones, and many existing rankings do not provide future performance guidance [2][3]. - Many funds have managers whose performance may not be sustainable due to factors like increased fund size, managerial distractions, or even departures [3][7]. - The article argues that simply selecting past winners does not guarantee future success, and a more systematic approach is needed to identify potential outperformers [9][11]. Group 2: Methodology for Identifying Future Alpha - The methodology consists of four steps: scientific classification, establishing a fund pool, quantitative validation, and qualitative assessment [12][13]. - The first step involves categorizing funds into distinct styles to allow for meaningful comparisons, using a proprietary classification system that includes eight styles and four industries [14][15]. - The second step involves populating these categories with researched fund managers, ensuring a comprehensive pool for analysis [19][20]. - The third step focuses on quantitative metrics to filter out underperformers, while the fourth step involves qualitative assessments to finalize the rankings [23][24]. Group 3: Performance Verification - The performance of the funds listed in the rankings is evaluated against market indices, with the rankings showing a consistent ability to outperform benchmarks over time [26][28]. - From 2022 to 2024, the funds in the equity ranking outperformed the Wind Mixed Equity Index by 9.31% cumulatively [28]. - The rankings also demonstrated that selected funds maintained their performance over multiple years, indicating their sustainability [31]. Group 4: Recognition of Potential Managers - The rankings have successfully identified lesser-known but capable fund managers, leading to significant growth in their fund sizes post-inclusion in the rankings [35][38]. - For instance, a manager from Huazhong Fund saw a size increase of 56.9 billion after being included in the rankings, highlighting the recognition and validation from the market [36][39]. Group 5: Continuous Recognition - The rankings have received consistent support from investors and industry peers over the past five years, reinforcing the value of the lists [42]. - A list of fund managers who have been recognized for five consecutive years is provided, showcasing their sustained performance [44].

Market Performance - In February 2026, the Shanghai gold price experienced a "deep correction followed by stabilization and a V-shaped recovery," with a monthly decline of -4.10%[11] - The price initially dropped sharply at the beginning of the month, then gradually stabilized and rebounded, returning to early-month levels by month-end[12] - As of February 28, 2026, the risk level of Shanghai gold reached 63.62, indicating a moderately positive market sentiment[16] Volatility and ETF Analysis - Historical volatility of Shanghai gold increased significantly, with implied volatility dropping from a high of 99% to around 90%[17] - Global gold ETF holdings showed a short-term "high followed by a pullback, then a month-end restart" pattern, indicating a long-term growth trend[24] - As of February 27, 2026, the total market value of Huaan Gold ETF reached 123.82 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 24.74 billion yuan on that day[5] Asset and Currency Value - Actual interest rates remain the core anchor for gold prices, influenced by mixed U.S. economic data and geopolitical risks, leading to adjustments in market expectations for monetary easing[24] - The U.S. dollar exhibited fluctuations due to repeated interest rate cut expectations and mixed economic data, impacting gold's currency value[32] Risk and Commodity Value - Geopolitical tensions and global policy uncertainties have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant risk premiums supporting gold prices[34] - Central bank gold purchases continue to provide mid-term support, with stable demand from official sectors offsetting short-term investment sentiment fluctuations[41] Future Outlook - The pricing logic for gold will continue to be driven by inflation and employment data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high volatility and resilience in prices[44] - Key upcoming events include the U.S. non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which will significantly influence market expectations and gold pricing[46]

最新行情显示，国际原油价格持续拉升，WTI原油涨5.02%，报74.803美元/桶；布伦特原油涨5.03%，报81.653 美元/桶。 油价行情依然亢奋！ 今日（3月3日），资源主线交易依然火热，多只油气类主题基金依然延续涨停态势。具体来看，标普油气ETF嘉 实、油气ETF银华、石油ETF富国、油气ETF博时、油气ETF汇添富等多只产品涨停。 | 名称 | | 涨跌 | 现价 | 日回报 年初至今 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油LOF易方达 | 0.153 | 10.02% | 1.680 c | 0.69% 13.76% | | | 石油基金LOF | | 0.263 10.01% | 2.890 c | 0.97% | 15.90% | | 车TLOF | | 0.204 10.01% | 2.241 c | 2.20% | 15.09% | | 石油LOF | 0.276 | 10.00% | 3.035 c | 1.99% | 16.17% | | 嘉实原油LOF | 0.172 | 10.00% | 1.892 c | 0.77% | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South China Oil Securities Investment Fund (code: 501018) will be suspended from trading on March 3, 2026, as per the announcement from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The South China Oil LOF fund has a latest net value of 1.2657, with a discount rate of -37.55% and a total share of 740 million [2]. - The fund experienced a near one-year return of 1.29% [2]. - On March 2, multiple oil-themed funds, including the South China Oil LOF, saw significant price increases, with some funds reaching the daily limit up [4]. Group 2: Market Activity - The trading volume for the South China Oil LOF was 916,800, with a total transaction amount of 159 million [2]. - The fund's price opened at 1.741, reaching a high of 1.741 and a low of 1.647 during the trading session [2]. - The fund's price increased by 9.98% during the trading session [2]. Group 3: Risk Alerts - Several oil-themed funds, including the South China Oil LOF, issued premium risk warning announcements due to significant price premiums in the secondary market, cautioning investors against blind investments that could lead to substantial losses [4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月03日 基金周报 公募基金规模连续 10 个月创历史新高，中欧基金发布《FOF 多元资 产配置洞察报告》 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，中证 1000、中证 500、中小板指指数收益靠前，收益分别为 4.34%、4.32%、2.87%，创 业板指、沪深 300、科创 50 指数收益靠后，收益分别为 1.05%、1.08%、 1.20%。 从成交额来看，除中小板指外，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。 行业方面，上周钢铁、有色金属、基础化工收益靠前，收益分别为 11.80%、 9.74%、6.21%，传媒、消费者服务、食品饮料收益靠后，收益分别为 -4.44%、-4.02%、-1.50%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 7274 亿元，逆回购到期 22524 亿 元，净公开市场投放 15250 亿元。除 10 年期外，不同期限的国债利率 均有所上行，利差缩窄 0.99BP。 上周共上报 63 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 7 只 FOF，19 只 ETF，华宝国证石油天然气 ETF、广发国证石油天然气 ETF ...

当国家队退场，ETF进入市 场化能力的淘汰赛 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 公募基金的最强增长赛道ETF，突然遭遇逆春寒。 2026年前，市场还沉浸在规模狂飙的热度之中。不仅沪深300ETF稳步增长，中证A500ETF更是在竞争 "期 权标的资格"的驱使下，规模在十多天里大涨上千亿，科创债ETF也整体大涨数百亿元。在2025年末，ETF 规模达到6.02万亿元，同比增长61.4%。 但年后，画风突变。 增持中证A500ETF的"帮忙资金"陆续撤退，汇金等国家队大资金更是巨量减持沪深300ETF、中证500ETF 等宽基。 ETF整体规模突然哑火，截至2月25日，全市场总规模为5.43万亿元，较2025年底减少了6000亿 元，降幅10%。 年前年后，可谓冰火两重天。 近十年以来，ETF规模一直呈现震荡上行态势，近一个月以来的规模大幅调整非常罕见。当然这不意味着 ETF的偃旗息鼓，更多是非常规资金的流出。 此次资金退出也属正常，毕竟现在股市表现较好，市场情绪较高，是救市资金退出的好时机，资金不可能 一直待在股市里，需要为下一次救市积蓄粮草，退出是早晚的事。现在退出还 ...

Group 1: Fund Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 13,817 existing funds in the market, an increase of 95 from the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 37.23 trillion yuan, up by 9.7 billion yuan [3][8] - In February 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.00%, 1.40%, and 0.72% respectively, indicating a performance difference among various fund styles [3][13] - The proportion of mixed, bond, and stock funds is the highest in terms of quantity, while money market, bond, and stock funds dominate in terms of asset scale [8][10] Group 2: ETF Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 1,446 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 16 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 5.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.79 billion yuan [4][18] - The median return for stock ETFs in February was 0.70%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.30% [4][23] - The internal deviation of cross-border ETFs was the highest at 3.18%, while bond ETFs had the lowest internal deviation at 0.11% [4][23] Group 3: ETF Strategy Tracking - The industry ETF rotation strategy based on main capital focused on steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals in February 2026, achieving a cumulative return of 6.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 0.09% [5][40] - The PB-ROE framework strategy focused on non-ferrous metals, transportation, and utilities in February 2026, with a cumulative return of 4.25%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index [5][47] - Since the beginning of 2023, the main capital industry ETF rotation strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 71.82%, compared to 21.67% for the CSI 300 index, resulting in an excess return of 50.15% [5][43]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260224-20260227） 短期模型以中性为主，后市或维持中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.98%，创业板指单周上涨 1.05%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型中性。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型绝大部分宽基指数看多。月历效应 模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益差相似模 型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：钢铁、有色金属、基础化工、煤 炭、电力及公用事业，跌幅前五的行业为：传媒、消费者服务、食品饮料、非 银行金融、银行。从资金流向角度来说，有色金属、石油石化、银行、农林牧 渔主力资金净流入居前，传媒、电力设备及新能源、计算机、机械、基础化工 主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 95.75%，相较于上周增加了 24 个 bps，混合型基 ...

《润泽数据中心 REIT 宣布扩募— —公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.02.09-2026.02.20）》 2026/02/23 《中核水电 REIT 上市——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.02.02- 2026.02.06）》 2026/02/07 《首批 8 单商业不动产 REITs 正式 申报！——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.26-2026.01.30）》 2026/01/31 2026 年 02 月 28 日 6 单商业不动产 REITs 进入问询 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.02.23-2026.02.27） 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(resea ...