行 30986 轻工制造 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 关轻注 工制造 纸企发布 3 月涨价函，上海购房政策优化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】①文化纸企发布 3 月涨价函、涨幅 200 元/吨，玖龙多基地宣布 箱板瓦楞纸提价 50 元/吨，浆价回升叠加招标旺季背景下，预计木浆系纸 价有支撑，看好纸企 Q1 盈利环比改善，持续推荐太阳纸业，关注玖龙纸 业、博汇纸业。②上海进一步优化购房政策，带动家居估值修复，关注后 续楼市小阳春销售情况。③家得宝、劳氏 26 年展望同店持平至+2%低于市 场预期，反映对当前美国疲软的住房市场和高利率环境的谨慎态度。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting potential improvements in domestic demand and the impact of tariff policy changes [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expected marginal improvement in domestic demand, driven by real estate policy stabilization and consumer confidence recovery [2][10]. - The AI glasses market is anticipated to see significant growth, with Meta's sales surging and Apple's upcoming product launch expected to enhance market penetration [2][12]. - The paper industry is experiencing price stability and potential profitability improvements due to strong overseas production control and rising prices [2][14]. Summary by Sections Export Sector - Changes in tariff policies are expected to boost export performance, with recommendations for companies like 嘉益股份, 匠心家居, and 永艺股份 due to their strong performance certainty [2][4]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against additional tariffs and the introduction of a 10% global tariff are pivotal developments [4][10]. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to catalyze upward valuation adjustments [2][10]. - The sector is witnessing accelerated consolidation, with mid-tier companies exiting and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [2][11]. - Companies like 顾家家居, 索菲亚, and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their potential valuation recovery [2][11]. AI Glasses Sector - Meta's smart glasses sales have seen explosive growth, with a reported increase of nearly threefold, while Apple's anticipated entry is expected to further drive market penetration [2][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like 康耐特光学 and 明月镜片, which are well-positioned in this emerging market [2][12]. Paper Industry - The report notes that overseas pulp mills are showing strong production control intentions, leading to price increases [2][14]. - Companies like 太阳纸业 and 玖龙纸业 are recommended due to their integrated operations and cost advantages [2][14]. Domestic Demand - There is an expectation of marginal improvement in domestic demand, with companies like 百亚股份 and 公牛集团 identified as potential beneficiaries [2][17]. - The report highlights the importance of consumer confidence and spending power recovery in driving demand [2][17].

Core Insights - The logistics and delivery industry is experiencing a recovery in order volume following the Spring Festival holiday, with various measures implemented to enhance workforce return rates and operational efficiency [1][5]. Group 1: Delivery Industry Recovery - After the Spring Festival, the express delivery sector is witnessing a peak in shipments, with some outlets using cash incentives to boost employee return rates and expedite the resumption of operations [1][2]. - Wu Qiang, a market leader at Jitu's Jinhua Yongkang outlet, reported a 100% return rate of staff post-holiday, ensuring operations returned to normal levels [2]. - The express delivery industry is increasingly focused on service quality, with measures in place to address issues such as staff shortages and slow packaging during the initial recovery phase [2][3]. Group 2: Order Volume Growth - Significant increases in order volume have been noted, with Jitu's Yinan logistics park reporting 22,000 incoming and 13,000 outgoing shipments on the first day back to work, achieving a delivery success rate of over 98% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a surge in daily business volume on the first day of nationwide resumption, with growth rates exceeding 20% in several provinces and over 70% in Hainan [5][6]. - The integration of AI technology has improved operational efficiency, with a reported 30% reduction in package damage and loss rates, and a 5% increase in service timeliness compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: Food Delivery Sector - The food delivery industry is also preparing for a surge in order volume post-holiday, with many outlets actively recruiting new riders to meet demand [7][8]. - Return rates for delivery personnel are around 80%, with expectations for further increases as businesses resume operations [7][8]. - Riders have reported significant income increases during the holiday period, with some earning an additional 5,000 to 10,000 yuan due to higher order volumes and incentives [10][11].

2月25日，晨光股份涨0.22%，成交额1.07亿元。两融数据显示，当日晨光股份获融资买入额898.69万 元，融资偿还579.58万元，融资净买入319.11万元。截至2月25日，晨光股份融资融券余额合计1.64亿 元。 资料显示，上海晨光文具股份有限公司位于上海市松江区新桥镇千帆路288弄5号，成立日期2008年7月 18日，上市日期2015年1月27日，公司主营业务涉及晨光品牌书写工具、学生文具、办公文具等产品的 设计、研发、制造和销售。主营业务收入构成为：办公直销56.70%，办公文具14.86%，学生文具 13.27%，书写工具10.51%，其他产品4.41%，其他(补充)0.23%，加盟管理费0.00%。 截至9月30日，晨光股份股东户数4.00万，较上期增加2.23%；人均流通股23002股，较上期减少2.19%。 2025年1月-9月，晨光股份实现营业收入173.28亿元，同比增长1.25%；归母净利润9.48亿元，同比减少 7.18%。 融资方面，晨光股份当日融资买入898.69万元。当前融资余额1.63亿元，占流通市值的0.66%，融资余 额低于近一年40%分位水平，处于较低位。 融券方面 ...

| 盒马牌悬挂式多功能厨房 | / | 180抽 | 2025-01- | 生产企业：江阴云智医疗无纺布 | 上海盒马网络科技有限公 | 上海市长宁区长宁路1123号 | / | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纸巾 | | | 09// | 制品有限公司 | 司长宁第三分公司 | (E)B1层10号 / / | | | 护舒宝®未来感极护液体 | 护舒宝 | 10片 | 2025-07- | 生产企业名称（产品责任单 | 上海盒马网络科技有限公 | 上海市长宁区长宁路1123号 | / | | 卫生巾 | | | 23// | 位）：广州宝洁有限公司 | 司长宁第三分公司 | (E)B1层10号 / / | | | 舒洁®牛乳系列乳霜纸面 巾口袋包 | 舒洁 | 7抽×10包 | 2025-05- 09// | 责任单位名称（委托方）：金佰 利（中国）有限公司 | 上海盒马网络科技有限公 司长宁第三分公司 | 上海市长宁区长宁路1123号 (E)B1层10号 / / | / | | | | | 2025-07- | | | | | | ...

| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | 上证指数 4082 -1.26 -1.37 0.41 | | 深证综指 2680 -1.05 0.16 1.16 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 11.32 | | 中盘指数 1.78 | 26.74 | | 小盘指数 | 19.55 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 摩托车及其 114 | 3.01 | -2.59 | 2.47 | | 影视院线 | 2.7 | 15.61 | 28.26 | | 海小 | 2.5 | 1.64 | 11.89 | | 综合II | 2.06 | 11.75 | 55.72 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 1.87 | 3.91 | -0.69 | | 跌幅居卸 行业(%) | | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 玻璃玻纤 | -4.69 | 30.4 | 65.53 | | 工业金属 | -3.82 | 0.19 | ୧୦ ବଟ | | 小尖属工 | -3.8 | 12.8 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pulp and Paper, Real Estate, Metal Cans, New Consumption, Tobacco, Personal Care, AI Applications, Pet Industry - **Key Trends**: Positive cyclical expectations, price increases in pulp, recovery in real estate transactions, and growth in various consumer sectors Key Points Pulp and Paper Industry - **Price Increases**: March pulp prices continue to rise strongly, with Suzano reporting an increase of $20 per ton in China [1] - **Supply Chain Issues**: Indonesia's revocation of forestry licenses affects the supply of hardwood pulp chips, compounded by APP's announcement of delays in the second phase of OKI production [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Continued recommendations for companies such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Xianhe, with a focus on potential growth in the sector [1] Real Estate Sector - **Market Recovery**: Improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a narrowing decline in housing prices across 70 cities [1] - **Top Picks**: Recommended companies include Kuka, Hanhai, with expectations for recovery in brands like Gongniu, Oppein, and others [1] Metal Can Industry - **Aluminum Price Adjustment**: Recent pullback in aluminum prices is beneficial for profit release, with a bottom recommendation for Aorikin and attention on Baosteel and Shengxing [1] New Consumption Sector - **Core Products**: Many core products have entered the layout phase, with various brands launching new items and maintaining high store traffic during the Spring Festival [2] - **Tobacco Market**: British American Tobacco reports rapid market share growth in Poland, with a recommendation for Smoore as a core stock [2] - **Personal Care Growth**: Brands like Leshushi and Baia are experiencing significant growth, with new product launches and marketing strategies enhancing their market positions [2] AI Applications - **Smart Glasses Sales**: Kangnait's smart glasses are projected to exceed 7 million units in sales for the year, with ongoing attention to order progress [2] - **Acquisition Plans**: Yudong plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology, extending its reach into precision components and AI glasses [2] Pet Industry - **Market Recovery**: The pet industry saw a recovery in January with an overall growth of 18%, with specific brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant increases [3] Cross-Border Trade - **Tariff Changes**: Recent tariff adjustments are favorable, with a 5% reduction in the overall tax rate benefiting cross-border enterprises, particularly focusing on companies like Zhiou and Henglin [3]

2026年01月29日，晨光股份股价上涨2.07%，报28.07元/股，成交额1.08亿元；主力资金净流出123.54万 元，近5日累计下跌0.88%，但今年以来股价累计上涨3.73%。 业绩经营情况 2025年1-9月，公司营业收入为173.28亿元，同比增长1.25%；归母净利润9.48亿元，同比减少7.18%；每 股收益1.04元，市盈率(TTM)为19.21倍。 经济观察网晨光股份（603899）近期股价上涨，前三季度营收微增但净利润同比下滑。 股票近期走势 截至2025年9月30日，股东户数4.00万，景顺长城等机构位列前十大流通股东。 当前公开资料中未明确提及晨光股份在2026年02月14日后有特定重大事件(如财报发布或股东大会)的公 告。未来事件可能包括年度报告披露等常规事项。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 机构持仓分析 ...

资本市场，现在是冰火两重天。 买科技股的公募，最高年盈利233%，另一方面，持有老登股的基金经理们，逐渐被基民抛弃。 基金行业正在经历一轮大洗牌。本来嘛，基民的钱亏了，基金经理却还拿着高薪和奖金，管理费一分不 少，这事被吐槽很久了。 就在上个月，新规出来，一切都要改变。 文丨金融八卦女特约作者：兴华 · · · 除了医药女神，其他明星基金经理也有翻车的。 四季度，医药女神们纷纷扑街。还有基金持仓紧握老登股的基金经理，被爆出来自己偷偷买了很多科技 股赚了大钱，成了众矢之的。 业绩轮流翻车，去年的基金经理离职人数创下新高，已经达到453人。而基金经理总人数却在持续扩 大，很多年轻的基金经理，83%连上一轮牛市都没经历过。 整个基金行业，正在经历一轮大洗牌。 知名基金经理刘彦春的四季报，普遍亏损在5.8%-7.5%之间，最近五年基本上是腰斩。 尤其是基金的四季报一披露，不少医药女神都扑街了。张韡、赵蓓等管理的医药基都在四季度陷入了亏 损，把上半年的利润吐回去不少。 赵蓓管理的工银前沿医疗A第四季度跌了13.7%，年度回报17%。 张韡管理的添富创新医药A 第四季度跌了15.5%，年度回报为36%。 金笑非的鹏华医药 ...

上市公司：鹏欣资源（600490），华峰铝业（601702），永茂泰（605208），首华燃气（300483），上 海能源（600508），上海石化（600688），翔港科技（603499），晨光股份（603899），康达新材 （002669），复星医药（600196）华峰超纤（300180），永利股份（300230），惠柏新材（301555）， 威尔泰（002058），汉钟精机（002158） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国工业云行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2025年1-12月，上海市工业企业数（以下数据涉及的工业企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为9819 个，和上年同期相比，减少了23个 ...