Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Wei Xing New Materials [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a significant increase of 7.50% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.17% [12]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old urban communities, complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in local government bond issuance, indicating a potential easing of fiscal pressure and a chance for municipal engineering projects to accelerate [1]. - The glass industry is approaching a supply-demand balance, with a focus on the photovoltaic glass sector amid production cuts to alleviate supply tensions [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a demand downturn, with prices fluctuating around the breakeven point, while supply-side improvements are anticipated [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the national cement price index was 345.33 CNY/ton, down 0.5% week-on-week, with a significant drop in cement output and supply [18]. - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 42.42%, reflecting a 1.72 percentage point increase from the previous week [18]. - The report notes a complex market situation influenced by weather, funding constraints, and environmental regulations, leading to a projected weakening in demand as the Spring Festival approaches [18]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of January 22, 2026, was 1138.82 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [35]. - Inventory levels for float glass showed a decrease of 9 million weight boxes compared to the previous week, but a year-on-year increase of 1188 million weight boxes [35]. - The report anticipates stable pricing in the short term, with potential policy changes affecting supply dynamics [35]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass remains stable, with no significant changes in production capacity or pricing observed [6]. - Demand for high-end electronic yarns is expected to remain strong, while ordinary products may see moderate price increases [6]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with rising prices for upstream raw materials such as aluminum and natural gas [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term market share growth in consumer building materials due to ongoing renovation demand [1]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is stable, with production rates and costs remaining consistent, although profit margins are under pressure [6]. - Import and export data indicate a net import of carbon fiber products, with significant price differentials between imports and exports [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][66] Core Insights - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is experiencing a downturn in investment and construction starts, necessitating proactive policy measures to stabilize the market [3][5] - National real estate development investment is projected to be 8.3 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with new housing starts and completions also showing significant declines [3][12] - The report highlights that the easing of monetary policy in Europe and the U.S. may provide more room for China's monetary and fiscal policies, which could positively impact the real estate market [3][5] - The report emphasizes that the construction materials sector may benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand, leading to a stabilization of the real estate market [5][20] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes that the construction materials sector is expected to see a turning point in capacity cycles due to accelerating supply-side reforms and a recovery in purchasing intentions driven by lower interest rates [5][20] - It suggests that the fundamental conditions of the real estate market are likely to stabilize, which may also lead to a recovery in post-cycle demand for construction materials [5][20] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 333.4 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.1% [4][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is reported at 1097.1 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% [4][21] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 2.21%. The construction materials index saw a significant rise of 9.23% [4][54] - Sub-sectors such as glass manufacturing and fiberglass manufacturing experienced notable gains, with increases of 11.13% and 8.97%, respectively [4][54]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国家具行业市场调查分析及投资发展潜力报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据可知：2025年12月全国家具制造业出口货值为133.9亿元，同比下降12.1%；2025年 全国家具制造业累计出口货值为1354亿元，累计同比下降9.5%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市公司：方大集团（000055），海螺新材（000619），北新建材（000786），中旗新材（001212）， 兔宝宝（002043），宝鹰股份（002047），亚厦股份（002375），北京利尔（002392），垒知集团 （002398），青龙管业（002457），名雕股份（002830），美芝股份（002856），豪尔赛（002963）， 中天精装（002989） 2019年-2025年全国家具制造业出口货值统计图 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Building Materials Sector Industry Overview - The building materials sector has recently experienced price increases driven by multiple factors, including seasonal construction expectations, a narrowing decline in new construction area, and supportive real estate policies in cities like Beijing, leading to market anticipation for further relaxation of purchase restrictions [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Increases**: The price hikes in the building materials sector are primarily driven by pre-Spring Festival expectations, macroeconomic changes, and real estate policy anticipations. For instance, new construction area in December decreased by 19% year-on-year, but the decline was 8 percentage points less than in November, indicating signs of market stabilization [3]. - **Strong Performance in Sub-sectors**: Waterproof materials and fiberglass have shown particularly strong performance. China Jushi has excelled in the fiberglass sector, while Oriental Yuhong, a leader in waterproof materials, reported positive revenue growth in Q3 [1][4]. - **Future Predictions**: It is anticipated that new construction area and housing prices may stabilize in the second half of 2026 or 2027, suggesting a focus on new construction-related sectors. The completion of local government debts before 2027 may limit the contribution of special bond funds to project growth [6][7]. - **Cost-Push Pricing**: Recent price increases in waterproof products are primarily cost-driven, with companies like Keshun implementing price hikes of 5% to 10%. Although these increases have limited impact on fundamentals during the off-season, they are aimed at maintaining higher price points post-Spring Festival [9]. - **Credit Risk Management**: The credit impairment risk in the consumer building materials sector is manageable, with adequate provisions for individual collective impairments. Companies like Vanke are gradually improving their debt extension plans, and the impact of supply chain debts on the building materials sector is limited [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The waterproof industry has seen a reduction in scale, with market size decreasing from 3.5 billion square meters to around 2.5 billion square meters, and revenue dropping from 120 billion to 80-90 billion yuan. Leading companies have increased their market share due to faster supply reductions compared to demand [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The building materials sector, particularly in new construction chains, waterproof materials, and aluminum formwork, continues to attract attention. Infrastructure projects are expected to benefit from positive investment forecasts due to government support [6][21]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: The sector faces asset impairment risks related to a large number of properties held as collateral. However, if the decline in second-hand housing prices stabilizes, the impairment risks may significantly decrease [13]. - **Trends in Fiberglass and Glass Industries**: The fiberglass sector is expected to perform well due to stable downstream demand, particularly in the electronic cloth market. The glass industry may experience price increases driven by favorable real estate policies [19]. Conclusion The building materials sector is poised for potential growth, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and supportive policies. Key sub-sectors like waterproof materials and fiberglass are expected to continue performing well, while credit risks appear manageable. Investors should focus on new construction-related sectors and monitor the evolving market dynamics for opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate sector is showing positive signals with recognition of its financial attributes and adjustments to past policies, indicating potential for stronger future policy measures and broader scope [1][4] - Basic data in the real estate sector continues to decline, with investment, new starts, and completions all down year-on-year, while first-tier city housing prices are accelerating downward [1][5] - The construction materials sector is responding to industry downturns by adjusting revenue structures, controlling costs, and exploring overseas markets [1][6] Key Points on Real Estate Policies - Recent policy changes include recognition of real estate as a significant financial market asset, benefiting housing prices, and a shift towards more decisive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments [4] - Rumors of lifting purchase restrictions in cities like Shanghai and promoting new home purchase subsidies are also noteworthy [4] Construction Materials Sector Performance - The construction materials sector is expected to perform strongly in 2026, driven by policy expectations and a high baseline from previous years [3][11] - Despite declining basic data, the marginal negative impact on the construction materials sector is diminishing as new starts decline at a slower rate [5] Specific Industry Developments Waterproof Coatings - The waterproof coatings sector is experiencing increased concentration, with the top three companies holding over 40% market share, and price increases are being observed [7][8] Rainhong Company - Rainhong's future outlook is optimistic, with expected price increases, improved cash flow, and reduced financing costs contributing to a positive trend in gross margin and expense ratio [9] Tile Industry - The tile industry, exemplified by Dongpeng, is expanding during the downturn by enhancing service response through a nationwide warehouse layout, preparing for market stabilization [10][15] Paint Industry - The leading paint company, Sankeshu, is achieving counter-cyclical growth through strategic adjustments and focusing on the C-end retail market, benefiting from policy incentives and a significant renovation market [2][12] Board Industry - The board industry, led by Tubaobao, is seeing price recovery after a decline, with a focus on channel and product service adjustments, and is expected to see growth in ecological board sales [13][14] Recommendations - The construction materials sector, particularly companies in the paint, board, and tile industries, should be closely monitored, with specific attention to leading firms like Sankeshu, Tubaobao, and Dongpeng [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2414.85 points, reflecting a 1.24% increase with a trading volume of 48.884 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.97% on January 23 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the same day, 29 constituent stocks of the index rose, with the solar energy sector leading the gains at a 10.06% increase [1] - Conversely, 21 stocks declined, with Beixin Building Materials experiencing the largest drop at 1.96% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index constituents totaled 1.237 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 1.266 billion yuan [2] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 28.8692 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase of 0.24% on January 23, with Luoyang Energy leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks in the renovation and building materials sector included: - Luoyang Energy (002088) with a closing price of 12.87, up 10.00% and a trading volume of 198,000 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [1]. - Youbang Ceiling (002718) closed at 67.38, up 6.99% with a trading volume of 30,700 shares, totaling 200 million yuan [1]. - Zhonggang Luonai (611889) closed at 7.52, up 6.67% with a trading volume of 755,000 shares, totaling 562 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall market saw a net outflow of 48.64 million yuan from the renovation and building materials sector, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 233 million yuan [2]. - The main funds showed a mixed trend, with significant outflows from several stocks, including: - Zhonggang Luonai (611889) with a net inflow of 73.53 million yuan from main funds but a net outflow of 15.64 million yuan from speculative funds [3]. - Luoyang Energy (002088) had a net inflow of 52.05 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 20.99 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Europe Pension Mixed A (001955), reported a profit of 25.1653 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0497 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 1.61%, and its total size reached 1.364 billion yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - As of January 21, the unit net value was 3.163 yuan. The fund manager, Xu Wenxing, has managed five funds that have all yielded positive returns over the past year. The highest growth rate among these funds was 34.78% for China Europe Growth Enterprise Board Two-Year Mixed A, while the lowest was 19.56% for China Europe Pension Mixed A [3][4]. - The fund's net value growth rates over various periods are as follows: 9.28% over the last three months (ranked 82/185), 8.43% over the last six months (ranked 159/185), 19.55% over the last year (ranked 164/183), and -2.46% over the last three years (ranked 143/176) [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund's management plans to continue focusing on investments with a safety margin in valuation, emphasizing fundamentally sound assets with strong industry positions and potential for profit recovery related to domestic demand. The strategy includes avoiding overly optimistic sectors with unclear business models [3][4]. Sector Focus - Key areas of focus include: - Professional technical services benefiting from domestic industrial upgrades and standards enhancement - Modern service industries with increasing concentration and strong cash flow generation capabilities - Consumer goods sectors that, while related to real estate, are experiencing counter-cyclical growth and possess brand and channel advantages - Cyclical sub-industries that have undergone industry clearing, are at extreme low valuations, and are showing signs of fundamental improvement [4]. Fund Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio is 0.3, ranking 141 out of 176 comparable funds. The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 41.7%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 19.7% [9][11]. - The average stock position over the last three years was 87.6%, closely aligned with the industry average of 87.64%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 93.4% at the end of Q3 2025, with a low of 73.76% at the end of 2021 [14]. Concentration of Holdings - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks consistently representing over 60% of the portfolio for nearly two years. As of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings included China Automotive Research, Morning Light Co., China Merchants Jinling, Songcheng Performance, Anjuke Food, Beijing Human Resources, Beixin Building Materials, Gujia Home, Yili Group, and ShouLai Hotel [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both the construction and building materials sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of balanced allocation between traditional cyclical building materials and emerging technology growth opportunities, driven by supportive real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1]. - The path for resolving real estate debt is becoming clearer, with significant credit impairment already reflected in the consumption building materials sector, suggesting a narrowing of credit impairment risk exposure [2]. - The decline in real estate construction is expected to slow, with price increases for construction materials continuing, particularly benefiting leading companies in the sector [3]. - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of stabilization, with "stock renovation" expected to be a key theme in 2026, potentially boosting demand for decorative and functional building materials [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the sector [1]. - Data indicates that the real estate market is beginning to stabilize, with some companies showing signs of revenue improvement due to increased market share and expansion into overseas markets [1]. Credit Impairment and Debt Resolution - Vanke's recent bondholder meeting approved a significant extension plan, indicating a rational approach to debt resolution within the industry [2]. - Most building materials companies have already accounted for substantial credit impairments, with many reporting over 50% impairment on specific items [2]. Construction Activity and Material Pricing - Real estate sales, new construction, and completion areas have shown declines of 8.7%, 20.4%, and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively, but the rate of decline is expected to slow [3]. - Leading companies in the sector have begun to implement price increases for construction materials, indicating a potential turning point in the market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market and Renovation Demand - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached 167.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.7% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from previous quarters [4]. - The report notes a decrease in the listing volume of second-hand homes, suggesting a tightening supply that could lead to price improvements [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China Liansu (2128 HK) with a target price of 6.35 yuan - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) with a target price of 14.34 yuan - Rabbit Baby (002043 CH) with a target price of 16.01 yuan - Beixin Building Materials (000786 CH) with a target price of 29.64 yuan - Dongfang Yuhong (002271 CH) with a target price of 17.19 yuan [7][9].

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 23 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 固定收益：三个角度尝试增厚收益 随着基金销售新规落地，近期二永债明显修复。往后看，需求端超调压力缓 解，但股市、通胀、利率供给扰动仍存，一季度债市或延续震荡，但也不乏 交易机会。机构行为存在分化，保险开门红分红险销售亮眼，中小保险有拉 久期需求，银行配置摊余成本法信用债专户或带来中长久期信用债配置需 求。理财面临净值化挑战和分红险分流，春节前谨防取现需求规模回落。债 基短期压力缓解，中期仍面临"收益增厚和持有体验"等挑战。信用债 ETF 是机构发展重点，但年前冲量后近期明显回落，成分券超跌。综上，近期建 议继续票息打底，通过波段、品种、杠杆等增厚收益。基金、理财可继续下 沉挖掘 2 年期以内城投债，关注 5 年期二永债波段机会、4 年中高等级骑乘 机会，保险等可逢调整增配 5 年及以上中高等级信用债。 风险提示：股市走强超预期，刺激经济政策超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-22 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC: ...