该行偏好核心业务稳定或正在复苏，同时能受惠于新兴推动力的企业，首选股份为恒立液压、三一重 工、三一国际及极兔速递，当中恒立液压获"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，其余股份获"跑赢大市"评级。 里昂发表研报指，中国工业板块正出现三大关键推动力，包括矿业设备需求上升、人形机器人供应链成 熟，以及快递行业整合。就核心业务而言，该行预期设备更换周期将持续，加上电网及可再生能源投资 创新高，将推动挖掘机销售增长约10%。一线供应商的海外工厂已准备就绪，将于下半年启动人形机器 人量产；而受锂相关领域强劲及价格上升带动，自动化需求预计按年复苏约5%。 ...

上市企业：三一重工（600031）,徐工机械（000425）,中联重科（000157）,山推股份（000680）,柳工 （000528）,厦工股份（600815）,山河智能（002097）,安徽合力（600761）,恒立液压（601100）,建设 机械（600984） 2020-2025年中国挖掘机产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国挖掘机行业市场调查及未来前景预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国挖掘机产量为3.7万台，同比增长20.8%；2025年1-12月中国 挖掘机累计产量为38万台，累计增长16.6%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Upstream Cycle Products**: Benefiting from loose monetary conditions and a bottoming capacity cycle, supply-demand tight balance is driving price increases in sectors like chemicals, black chain, and real estate chain, presenting investment opportunities. Short-term market remains strong with long-term logic supporting this trend, but structural rotation and cost-effectiveness need to be monitored [1][2] Chemical Industry - **Current Situation**: The chemical industry is experiencing a hot market, with public fund holdings in large chemical sectors still underweight. Policies limiting new capacity and negative growth in capital expenditure are restricting supply, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: 1. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Focus on companies with good resource endowments benefiting from high oil prices and potential value assessments [4] 2. **Basic Chemicals**: After a long bottoming process, current price differentials and valuations have safety margins. Key assets benefiting from unexpected demand and marginal changes in dual carbon policies should be monitored [4] 3. **Cyclical Leaders**: Attention should be given to tire companies with overseas expansion potential [4] Coal Sector - **Current Situation**: The coal sector has seen supply contraction and increased overseas demand, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating potential price increases. Many companies are undervalued from a price-to-book (PB) perspective, especially those with high spot market ratios [5][7] - **Investment Logic**: Companies with high spot ratios are expected to benefit significantly from rising coal prices. Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International [6] Precious Metals - **Market Dynamics**: In the context of global turmoil, physical assets like gold are rising, with ongoing central bank purchases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining International and Shandong Gold [10] - **Industrial Metals**: Favorable outlook for aluminum and copper, with specific recommendations for China Aluminum and Zijin Mining [10][11] Logistics and Delivery - **SF Holding**: The company shows potential for absolute returns and valuation recovery, with a projected absolute return rate of 3.8% for 2025 and 2026. The company is at a ten-year low in valuation, with significant room for EPS upgrades and PE recovery [12] - **Third-party Delivery**: SF's leading position in the third-party delivery sector is expected to enhance performance through partnerships with major internet companies [12] Insurance Sector - **2026 Outlook**: The insurance sector is expected to perform strongly due to resonance in both asset and liability sides. The demand for dividend insurance is increasing, and the long-term interest rates are stabilizing, enhancing profit elasticity for insurance companies [23][24] Construction Materials - **Investment Opportunities**: Traditional undervalued construction materials like renovation materials, glass, and cement still hold investment value. Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and China Liansu [25] Real Estate Sector - **Recent Trends**: The real estate sector has rebounded due to bullish market sentiment and policy expectations. Anticipated easing measures in core cities may lead to a short-term market recovery [26][27] Engineering Machinery - **2026 Prospects**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to see synchronized domestic and international demand growth. Key recommendations include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [29][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry, indicating a projected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the breakthrough of Figure Helix 02, which achieves full-body autonomous control in humanoid robots, enabling them to perform complex tasks in various scenarios. This advancement opens new commercial opportunities for humanoid robots [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robotics sector is undergoing significant technological transformations and exploring practical applications, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for commercialization [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing rapid advancements, particularly with the introduction of Figure Helix 02, which marks a significant leap in autonomous control capabilities [2][4]. Key Developments - Figure Helix 02 can autonomously perform 61 coordinated actions without human intervention, showcasing its potential in household and restaurant environments. It can execute tasks such as walking, picking, stacking, and precise operations like opening bottle caps and sorting items in cluttered environments [4]. Technical Breakthroughs - The Helix 02 model introduces a "three-level collaborative" control architecture, utilizing a single neural network to replace millions of lines of code, thus achieving human-like natural movements. It integrates high-sensitivity tactile sensors and multi-dimensional cameras for precise control [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core component suppliers in the robotics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Changying Precision, Hengli Hydraulic, and others for their growth potential [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Humanoid Robot and EV Supply Chain - The conference focused on the China humanoid robot and EV supply chain sector, with meetings held from January 19-22, 2026, involving various companies in the robotics and automotive sectors [1] - Major component suppliers are preparing for the debut of Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 in the first half of 2026, with batch shipments expected in the second half of 2026 [1] - Suppliers for Unitree's humanoid robot anticipate significant year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, leading to over 100% growth in humanoid robot-related sales [1] - Key component manufacturers are increasing production capacity and expect cost reductions through mass production and product standardization [1] Auto/EV OEMs & Supply Chain Sales Trends and Cost Pressures - Weak auto and EV sales trends are continuing into January 2026, attributed to cuts in EV purchase tax subsidies and incomplete trade-in subsidies [2] - Chery plans to launch new models post-Lunar New Year in February 2026 [2] - BOM (bill of materials) costs for EV models are estimated to increase by approximately RMB4,500-5,000 due to rising prices of lithium carbonate, memory, copper, and aluminum [2] - Seyond expects price reductions in LiDAR, which may alleviate some cost pressures for OEMs [2] Battery Sector Growth and Cost Management - CALB and Gotion are targeting over 50% year-over-year shipment growth, aiming for 180 GWh and 150 GWh respectively in 2026, driven by ESS demand and electrification of commercial vehicles [3] - Both companies plan to expand their effective capacities to 200 GWh by 2026 [3] - Upstream cost pressures from lithium carbonate and LiPF6 are expected to be partially passed through to customers, with ESS customers more likely to accept price hikes than EV customers [3] Company-Specific Insights Wolong Electric - Anticipates humanoid robot-related revenue to double year-over-year in 2026, with a projected revenue of around RMB100 million from humanoid robots in 2025 [8] - The company is investing in a data collection center for humanoid robots, focusing on motion capture [8] ZD Leader - Expects humanoid robot-related revenue to increase from RMB50 million in 2025 to over RMB100 million in 2026, driven by orders from a leading local robot maker [9] - The average selling price of its planetary reducers is expected to decline in the long term [9] Changsheng Bearing - Currently, humanoid robot-related revenue accounts for less than 1% of total revenue, but significant growth is expected [10] - Management anticipates a 20% CAGR in the auto industry, supported by rising content value and market share gains [10] Precision Tsugami China - Achieved over 15,000 unit shipments of machine tools in 2025, with a revenue of over RMB5 billion [11] - Management expects over 10% year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, driven by demand from various sectors [11] Seyond - Projects over 1 million units of LiDAR shipments in 2026, with a focus on ADAS products [13] - Expects average selling prices to drop but gross profit margins to improve due to economies of scale [13] Inovance - Expects continued recovery in the factory automation sector, with strong demand from the battery and 3C sectors [14] - New businesses in robotics and industrial software are anticipated to drive long-term growth [15][16] Hengli Hydraulic - Aims for 20-30% revenue growth in 2026, with significant contributions from its partnership with Caterpillar [17] - Targets RMB300-500 million in sales from screw and linear guide business in 2026 [18] CALB - Targets over 180 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with a focus on mid-to-high-end EV models [19] - Plans to increase production capacity to 200 GWh by 2026 and expects to pass through lithium carbonate price hikes to customers [20][21] JAC - Expects a net loss of RMB1.68 billion in 2025 but aims for 50,000 units shipment for its Maextro brand in 2026 [23] - The Maextro brand is expected to improve profitability in 2026 due to rising capacity utilization [23] Gotion Hi-Tech - Targets 150 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with significant expansion in production capacity planned [27][28] Chery - Aims for 3 million units in volume sales for 2026, with a 50% penetration rate for EV sales [30] - Expects stable net profit per vehicle despite BOM cost increases [31] Bethel - Projects over 20% revenue growth in 2026, with a focus on new product introductions [32] - Anticipates relatively weak customer orders in the first quarter of 2026 [32] Conclusion - The conference highlighted significant growth opportunities in the humanoid robot and EV sectors, with various companies preparing for increased demand and addressing cost pressures through strategic planning and partnerships.

Market Overview - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 1.06% on January 29, with Zhigao Machinery leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the engineering machinery sector included: - Construction Machinery (600984) with a closing price of 4.08, up 4.08% on a trading volume of 605,000 shares and a transaction value of 245 million [1] - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 43.28, up 1.81% with a trading volume of 113,000 shares and a transaction value of 487 million [1] - Tietuo Machinery (920706) closed at 28.45, up 1.72% with a trading volume of 39,300 shares and a transaction value of 111 million [1] - Decliners included: - Zhigao Machinery (920101) closed at 45.72, down 3.75% with a trading volume of 45,200 shares and a transaction value of 211 million [2] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100) closed at 108.90, down 3.03% with a trading volume of 106,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.17 billion [2] - Tuoshan Heavy Industry (001226) closed at 48.78, down 3.02% with a trading volume of 13,300 shares and a transaction value of 66.05 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 322 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 162 million [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Xugong Machinery (000425) with a net inflow of 60.78 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 32.23 million from retail investors [3] - Hailunzhe (300201) had a net inflow of 35.86 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 45.19 million [3] - Construction Machinery (600984) saw a net inflow of 31.44 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 27.89 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, several actively managed equity products under foreign public funds achieved significant excess returns, with clear positioning in technology growth and resource sectors, reflecting strong stock selection and allocation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Many foreign public fund products recorded impressive gains throughout 2025, with standout performances in their categories. For instance, BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing A rose by 63.34%, Fidelity Low Carbon Growth A increased by 44.27%, Schroders China Power A gained 47.94%, Allianz China Select A surged by 65.83%, and Robeco Resource Select A achieved a remarkable 97.28% increase, showcasing the strong grasp of foreign institutions in structural market conditions [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Structure - The portfolio structure of these foreign public funds remains centered on manufacturing, while maintaining a high focus on technology growth and resource opportunities. Specifically, BlackRock's holdings are heavily concentrated in manufacturing, with significant investments in technology stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian, and Luxshare Precision in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - Fidelity Low Carbon Growth also prioritizes manufacturing, with key holdings including Xinyi Semiconductor, Information Development, and Shanghai Fudan, balancing low-carbon transformation and technology growth [3]. - Robeco Resource Select has a more diversified portfolio, including significant allocations to materials and mining sectors, with major investments in Zijin Mining, Chipbond Technology, and China Aluminum, indicating a clear focus on commodities and related industry chains [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The latest quarterly reports from various foreign public funds indicate a dual approach in investment strategy: a sustained optimism towards cyclical resource sectors and a selective approach within the technology sector. The ongoing economic transformation, technological advancements, and supportive policies in China continue to underpin the value reassessment of Chinese stocks [5][6]. - Robeco Resource Select has optimized its portfolio structure by shifting towards cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to black metals and early-cycle segments, and increasing chemical sector allocations, while also maintaining and slightly increasing investments in upstream industries related to the current technology innovation cycle [6]. - Schroders China Power maintains a high equity position while rebalancing its structure, transitioning from previously favored technology sectors to undervalued non-bank financials and chemicals [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a strong belief in the continued value reassessment of Chinese stocks, with high-quality technology assets expected to remain core to this process, potentially yielding significant excess returns [7].

这种分化不仅体现在出货量上，更关键的是谁能完成从实际部署到迭代改进的闭环——包括模型优化、任务能力提升和成本控制。尽管单位出货量快速增 长，但机器人操作能力的改进速度仍然缓慢，受限于模型、数据和算力。 摩根士丹利警告，中国人形机器人行业已从PPT演示阶段进入真刀真枪的量产竞争期。 据追风交易台信息，摩根士丹利调研团队于1月26-28日密集走访了多家整机厂商（傅利叶、开普勒、MagicBot）和核心零部件供应商（绿的谐波、恒立液 压、双林股份、振宇协能、福莱特、卧龙电驱、思灵科技），分析师观察到一个关键变化：领先者与落后者之间的差距正在迅速扩大，首轮行业洗牌即将到 来。 大摩分析师认为，具备技术实力和量产能力的核心零部件供应商将在这轮产业化浪潮中占据主导地位。随着2026年行业出货量实现数倍增长，具备先发优势 的供应商将获得显著的市场份额和定价权。 2026年出货量将实现数倍跃升 大摩调研显示，所有整机厂商都对2026年出货量持乐观预期。一家领先的国内整机厂商2025年出货量已超过5000台，2026年预计将实现数倍增长。其他厂商 的具体目标包括：傅利叶目标2000台（2025年为400-500台）；Magic ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that the humanoid robot industry in China has transitioned from the PPT presentation stage to a competitive mass production phase [1] - The gap between industry leaders and laggards is rapidly widening, indicating an impending first round of industry reshuffling [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - All surveyed manufacturers are optimistic about shipment volumes for 2026, with one leading domestic manufacturer expecting over 5,000 units in 2025 and several times that in 2026 [2] - Specific targets include: Fourier aiming for 2,000 units (up from 400-500 in 2025), MagicBot over 1,000 units, and Kepler 300 units (up from 70-80 in 2025) [2] - Component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic and Slin Technology are preparing capacity based on North American manufacturers' production plans, aiming for 1,000 units per week by July 2026, increasing to 2,500 units by year-end [2] Group 2: Differentiation in Capabilities - A decisive difference in task capabilities and execution efficiency has emerged among manufacturers, with the industry expected to move beyond video demonstrations by 2025 [3] - The ability to complete the feedback loop from deployment to iterative improvement is critical, including model optimization and cost control [3] - Lagging startups may struggle to catch up during the industry's acceleration phase, with a first round of reshuffling likely to occur soon [3] Group 3: Component Supplier Dynamics - The market for component suppliers shows a clear advantage for leaders with stronger technical capabilities and mass production abilities [4] - Suppliers are shifting from single component competition to module-level product offerings, which helps clients reduce integration complexity and improve quality control [4] - Overseas expansion is becoming a key focus, with leading domestic manufacturers only contributing a single-digit percentage to overseas sales last year [4] Group 4: Application Scenarios - Manufacturers are exploring repeatable and scalable application cases across various sectors, including industrial, retail, medical, and logistics [5] - A gradual development trajectory is anticipated, driven by human-machine collaboration rather than rapid universal breakthroughs [5] - Leading manufacturers expect one-third of 2026 shipments to come from entertainment/commercial services, another third from industrial/data collection, and the remainder from R&D [5]

特斯拉称，这款新版Optimus将包含"相比2.5版本的重大升级，包括我们最新的手部设计"。公司正在为 第一条生产线做准备，该产线将于"2026年底前启动"。马斯克还预测，Optimus不仅将用于特斯拉工 厂，还将作为家庭助手甚至外科医生使用。 今天上午，人形机器人板块探底后，盘中迎来直线拉升，科大讯飞（002230）涨停，三维天地 （301159）等个股大涨。 当地时间周三盘后，特斯拉公布了好于预期的第四季度财报业绩，股价盘后上涨。值得一提的是，在财 报中，特斯拉表示，其面向量产的第三代Optimus人形机器人将于2026年第一季度亮相。 国内人形机器人行业最近也是催化不断，"我要上春晚"成为行业内近期的热词，魔法原子、银河通用、 宇树科技三家机器人公司接连官宣，与中央广播电视总台2026年春节联欢晚会达成合作。去年宇树机器 人在春晚扭秧歌出圈，引发市场极大关注，人形机器人板块走出一波大行情。 国信证券表示，马斯克对机器人产业进展的预期，表明行业的安全性和功能范围将在两年内实现极大程 度提升，机器人能力的提升也将带来需求端的爆发。持续看好人形机器人的长期投资机会，建议从价值 量和卡位上把握空间和确定性，从股 ...