计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -17% -11% -4% 2% 8% 15% 21% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 《计算机行业年度策略：AI 应用加快，全球格 局重塑中》 2025-12-01 《计算机行业分析报告：十五五规划建议的信 息科技领域内容解读》 2025-10-31 《计算机行业月报：鸿蒙迎来重要升级，AI 算 力需求多元化趋势明显》 2025-10-23 联系人：李智 预训练规模 ——计算机行业月报 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 风险提示：国际局势的不确定性；海外 AI 产业竞争格局变化带来市 场调整风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共50页 手机端 AI 应用加速，DeepSeek 将加大 投资要点： 电话： 0371-65585629 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, with a recommendation to outperform the market for key targets including Hand Enterprise, Wuxi Unicomp Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Newland Digital Technology, and Dawning Information Industry [3][4]. Core Insights - Domestic AI foundational models are making significant breakthroughs, with DeepSeek-V3.2 enhancing reasoning capabilities and ByteDance launching the "Doubao Phone Assistant," indicating rapid penetration of foundational models into terminal applications [3][9]. - Overseas giants like AWS and NVIDIA are leading the next-generation AI infrastructure competition through full-stack capabilities and strategic investments, with AWS announcing a comprehensive AI strategy and NVIDIA investing $2 billion in Synopsys [3][10]. - China's commercial space sector is advancing in satellite internet and rocket technology, with significant developments in ecosystem construction and successful rocket launches, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][11]. Summary by Sections AI Development - The report highlights the rapid commercialization of edge AI, driven by breakthroughs in foundational models and significant product launches in the domestic market [3][9]. Infrastructure Competition - AWS and NVIDIA are enhancing their control over AI infrastructure through comprehensive strategies and investments, marking a shift from mere computational power competition to a focus on full-stack solutions and ecosystem control [3][10]. Commercial Space Industry - The report details advancements in China's commercial space sector, including partnerships for satellite internet services and successful rocket launches, showcasing a dual focus on application and research development [3][11].

算力：1)超节点趋势明确，国产算力通过超节点实现整体性能提升，工程上具备差异化优势；2)AI Infra 重要性提升，核心关注市场规模、渗透率快速提升的软件层；3)量 wind数据显示，2025 年初至今，计算机板块涨幅为 18%，全行业排名第 12。基本面驱动与主题投资兼 具，主线主要包括 AI 算力、具身智能、AI 应用三大方向。 申万宏源黄忠煌团队发布计算机2026年策略，总体认为，算力聚沙成塔，应用乘风而起。 研报观点称： 行情复盘来看，基本面筑基、AI行催化，随着年初DeepSeek发布，AI产业链催化上涨。DeepSeek 代表 模型平权、性能与成本的平衡， 国内 AI 软硬件景气度高涨。3 月-9 月上旬，AI 应用拐点尚未到来，整 体表现平淡。国内 AI 应用进展低于预期，叠加关税影响，回归基本面估值；5 月后，年报验证行业整 体基本面企稳，部分头部公司业绩稳健、亮眼，估值随大盘上升。9 月后，板块内行情分化，市场更青 睐绩优股，板块整体出现滞涨。 业绩复盘来看，：基本面拐点，净利润率先反弹。2025年前三季度，计算机板块营收、净利润均呈现反 弹趋势，行业基本面拐点确认，其中净利润反弹幅度超过 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of leading optical module companies, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure investments, with significant revenue growth and profit margin expansion expected through 2026 [3][6]. - The cloud computing ETF (159890) has seen a notable increase, driven by the strong performance of its top-weighted stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which together account for over 30% of the ETF [4][8]. - Major cloud service providers are projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with an expected $367 billion in 2025, representing a 59% year-on-year growth, and a further increase to $495 billion in 2026 [5]. Group 2 - Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are expected to achieve remarkable revenue growth rates of 120% and 175% respectively in 2024, with continued strong performance anticipated in 2025 [6]. - The gross margins of these companies are expected to improve due to the upgrade to 800G and 1.6T optical modules, with projected increases of 9.2 and 5.4 percentage points from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 [6]. - The global shipment volumes for 800G and 1.6T optical modules are forecasted to reach 49 million and 22 million units respectively by 2026, indicating a significant supply-demand gap, particularly for 1.6T modules [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of leading optical module companies, with significant stock price increases for NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang, driven by AI infrastructure investments and demand for high-value solutions [1][3][5] - The expected capital expenditure for major overseas cloud providers in 2025 is projected to reach $367 billion, a 59% year-on-year increase, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [4] - The revenue growth rates for Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase are forecasted at 120% and 175% for 2024, respectively, with substantial increases in gross margins driven by the upgrade to 800G/1.6T optical modules [5][6] Group 2 - The cloud computing ETF (159890) has a significant weight in leading optical module companies, with Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase accounting for over 31% of the index [6][7] - The index has shown a 44.06% increase over the past six months, outperforming the CS cloud computing index by approximately 29 percentage points [8]

12月7日晚间，国产GPU厂商沐曦股份发布网上发行申购情况及中签率公告。 （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） AI人工智能ETF(512930)，场外联接(平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接A：023384；平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接C：023385；平安中证人工智 能主题ETF发起式联接E：024610)。 规模方面，AI人工智能ETF最新规模达27.92亿元。（数据来源：Wind） AI人工智能ETF紧密跟踪中证人工智能主题指数，中证人工智能主题指数选取50只业务涉及为人工智能提供基础资源、技术以及应用支持的上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映人工智能主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)前十大权重股分别为中际旭创(300308)、新易盛(300502)、寒武纪(688256)、中科曙光 (603019)、澜起科技(688008)、科大讯飞(002230)、海康威视(002415)、豪威集团(603501)、金山办公(688111)、浪潮信息(000977)，前十大权重股合计占比 63.92%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成 ...

AI人工智能ETF(512930)，场外联接(平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接A：023384；平安中证人工 智能主题ETF发起式联接C：023385；平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接E：024610)。 数据来源：wind AI人工智能ETF紧密跟踪中证人工智能主题指数，中证人工智能主题指数选取50只业务涉及为人工智能 提供基础资源、技术以及应用支持的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映人工智能主题上市公司证券的 整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)前十大权重股分别为中际旭创 (300308)、新易盛(300502)、寒武纪(688256)、中科曙光(603019)、澜起科技(688008)、科大讯飞 (002230)、海康威视(002415)、豪威集团(603501)、金山办公(688111)、浪潮信息(000977)，前十大权重 股合计占比63.92%。 截至2025年12月8日 10:40，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)强势上涨2.65%，成分股中际旭创(300308)上 涨5.83%，新易盛(300502)上涨5.43%，光迅科技(0022 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index has seen a strong increase of 1.58%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Zhongke Xingtou (3.14%), Lanke Technology (2.96%), and Haiguang Information (2.87%) [1] - The Digital Economy ETF (560800) also rose by 1.55%, reflecting the overall positive trend in the digital economy sector [1] - According to Wind data, the Digital Economy ETF experienced a significant increase of 4 million shares in the past month, indicating strong investor interest [1] Industry Overview - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $975 billion by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of over 25%, driven primarily by demand from AI and data centers [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that the domestic AI chip localization process is an inevitable long-term trend, suggesting that the current period is optimal for the development of domestic chips [1] - The Digital Economy ETF closely tracks the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index, selecting companies involved in digital economy infrastructure and high digitalization applications to reflect the overall performance of the digital economy theme [1] Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index account for 54.6% of the index, with notable companies including Dongfang Caifu (8.64%), Zhongxin International (7.17%), and Hanwei Technology (6.98%) [2][3] - The performance of these stocks varies, with Dongfang Caifu increasing by 2.75% and Zhongxin International by 2.41%, while Zhongwei Company saw a decline of 1.06% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the AI sector, with the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index rising by 1.33% and individual stocks like Fudan Microelectronics and Zhongke Star Map showing significant gains [1] - OpenAI is set to release the GPT-5.2 update soon, aiming to close the performance gap with Google's Gemini 3, which has received high praise from industry leaders [1] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF has shown a consistent upward trend, marking a 1.15% increase and achieving three consecutive days of gains [1] Group 2 - Major cloud service providers are increasing investments in AI chip development, with Amazon AWS launching the next-generation Trainium3 chip and previewing Trainium4, which is expected to enhance training efficiency and reduce costs [2] - The Zhongzheng AI Theme Index comprises 50 listed companies involved in providing resources, technology, and application support for AI, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related securities [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index account for 63.92% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players within the AI sector [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [32]. Core Insights - Quantum computing is anticipated to become mainstream within two years, with predictions that GPUs will be replaced by quantum technology before 2030. This shift is expected to significantly impact the AI landscape [11][12]. - The U.S. government is considering incorporating robotics into its national technology strategy, reflecting a growing interest in advancing the robotics sector [14][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the quantum computing and embodied intelligence sectors include Guandun Quantum, Keda Guokai, China Great Wall, Shenzhou Information, Guangxun Technology, Zhongke Shuguang, Keda Xunfei, Ubtech, Softcom Power, and Suochen Technology [4]. Industry News - Intel's former CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts that quantum computing will accelerate the obsolescence of current GPU technology, emphasizing the importance of foundational computing power and infrastructure held by major tech companies [11][12]. - The U.S. is planning to issue an executive order on robotics, aiming to enhance the country's competitiveness in this field, as evidenced by the deployment of nearly 2 million industrial robots in China compared to only a quarter of that in the U.S. [14][15]. Company Developments - Yonyou Network's major shareholder has pledged a significant portion of its shares, indicating a high level of financial commitment [3]. - Suochen Technology is set to acquire a 60% stake in Likong Technology, which will become a secondary subsidiary of the listed company following the completion of the transaction [3][24].