观点：我们认为随着本周美联储"鹰派"降息落地后，铝价短暂走弱，但从基 本面看，本周全球铝库存总体小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存总计维持 120-125 万吨，安全库存维持低位，同时海外项目因电力问题减产+印尼增量释放缓慢 未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，未来库存或维持低位，对铝价形成支撑。 从金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比创年内新高，铜铝在电力等需求有替代作用， 历史铜铝比多 3.3-3.7，意味铝仍有补涨空间，考虑美国当前铝升水接近 70%， 如果未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区减产，铝上涨弹性可能会更强。 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251208-20251212） 美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或 推荐（维持） 震荡运行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点 1：美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或震荡运行 事件：根据中新社数据，美国联邦储备委员会 10 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调 25 个基点到 3.5%至 3.75%之间的水平，这是美联储今年以来第三 次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。降息会议后，市场对美联储未来降 息情况仍有分歧，根据 CME"美联储观察"，截至 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on industrial and precious metals, particularly gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a potential decline in the US dollar index [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4302.7 and $61.1 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and plans for further easing are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold due to their potential in the rising gold market [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper closing at $11552.5 per ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.63% to 94020 yuan per ton. Supply constraints and fluctuating demand are expected to maintain price elasticity [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper for investment opportunities in the copper sector [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $2875.0 per ton, down 0.40%. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but highlights ongoing demand resilience in sectors like automotive and electricity [3][11] - Suggested companies for investment include Nanshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao due to their positioning in the aluminum market [3] Tin - Tin prices have surged, with SHFE tin contracts reaching 332720 yuan per ton, up 5.09%. Supply disruptions from conflict-affected regions are contributing to tight raw material availability [3][8] - Companies such as Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings are recommended for their potential in the tin market [8] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with significant regulatory adjustments expected to impact supply. The report anticipates a potential new price increase cycle for rare earths due to supply shortages and policy changes [9] - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as key players in this sector [9][10] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are currently around 409,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further due to export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The report maintains a positive outlook on cobalt prices [10] - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium for their strategic positioning in the cobalt market [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

潮起海南，金耀未来。12月11日，由中国黄金协会与世界黄金协会联合主办的2025中国（三亚）国际黄 金市场年会，在海南省三亚市成功举办。本届年会旨在贯彻落实党中央关于高质量建设海南自由贸易港 的决策部署，以政策为桥、以产业为脉、以合作为魂，为海南自由贸易港打造国际黄金产业高地注入强 劲动能。 中国黄金协会党委书记严弟勇在主持开幕式时指出，本届年会恰逢海南自由贸易港即将封关运作的战略 节点择址三亚召开，绝非行业单一活动的简单落地，而是立足"国之大者"、贯彻党中央决策部署、服 务"两个毫不动摇"，以产业之力赋能海南自由贸易港高质量建设的重大实践，意义深远而非凡。 他强调，建设海南自由贸易港是习近平总书记亲自谋划、亲自部署、亲自推动的重大国家战略，是党中 央在新时代全面深化改革开放的重大决策，更是我国坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放、推动建设开放型世 界经济的标志性举措。当前，三亚市凭借独特的政策优势和区位潜力，全力推进工业提质增效，重点布 局黄金珠宝产业园等核心平台，加速产业链供应链集聚融合和能级跃升，成为投资兴业的新前沿和黄金 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行业国际化的重要门户。本 ...

中金黄金股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会 会议资料 2025 年 12 月 中金黄金股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会会议议程 一、会议时间 （四）议案审议： 现场会议召开时间：2025 年 12 月 22 日（星期一）14:30。 网络投票时间：采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通 过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为 2025 年 12 月 22 日（星期 一）的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25，9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00； 通过互联网投票平台的投票时间为 2025 年 12 月 22 日（星期 一）的 9:15-15:00。 二、现场会议地点 北京市东城区安外大街 9 号中国黄金大厦。 三、会议召集人 中金黄金股份有限公司（以下简称公司）董事会。 四、现场会议议程 （一）会议主持人宣布会议开始； （二）会议主持人宣布到会股东及股东授权代表人数和 持有股份数，说明授权委托情况，介绍到会人员； （三）宣读公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会会议须知； 1.审议《关于修订<中金黄金股份有限公司章程>的议案》 1 2.审议《关于修订<中金黄金股份有限公司股东大会议事 规则>的议 ...

Market Overview - On December 12, the market rebounded with all three major indices closing in the green, over 2,600 stocks rising, and a total trading volume of 2.1 trillion, an increase of 235.9 billion from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.97% [1] Key Sectors Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector continued to show strength, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Huazhong Cable and Zhongchao Holdings [4] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's vice president mentioned that the company has over 600 suppliers covering more than 90 cities, with nearly 70% being private enterprises [4] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Xue Ren Group and Guoji Heavy Industry hitting the daily limit [5] - The International Energy Agency predicts that the global nuclear fusion market could approach 500 billion by 2030 [5] Precious Metals - Precious metals showed repeated strength, led by Xiaocheng Technology, with other stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold also rising [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and new short-term Treasury purchase plan have bolstered market liquidity and increased demand for precious metals [3] Institutional Insights Central Economic Work Conference - According to China Merchants Securities, the Central Economic Work Conference has historically led to a favorable market style in the following week, particularly benefiting sectors like oil, telecommunications, and electronics [6] - The conference's focus on key industries is expected to receive increased policy support [7] Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - Guotai Junan anticipates that macroeconomic policies in 2026 will maintain a positive tone without excessive stimulus, focusing on counter-cyclical adjustments [8] - The emphasis will be on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local protectionism and competition issues [8] Cross-Cycle Policy Characteristics - GF Securities notes that the new "musts" from the conference will significantly influence macroeconomic policy, focusing on effective demand, structural reforms, and enhancing market vitality [9] - The 2026 policy framework is expected to exhibit more pronounced cross-cycle characteristics, emphasizing investment in both physical and human capital [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced slight declines in the morning but rebounded in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.97% to 3194.36 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, with the number of advancing and declining stocks nearly balanced [1] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector continued to show strength, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, including companies like Hualing Cable and Zhongchao Holdings [1][3] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept gained traction, with stocks such as Xue Ren Group and Guo Ji Heavy Industry hitting the daily limit, driven by predictions of a global nuclear fusion market size approaching 500 billion USD by 2030 [1][4] - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with companies like Zhao Jin Gold rising nearly 8%, supported by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and low silver futures inventory [1][2] - The semiconductor equipment sector remained active, with stocks like Yaxiang Integration hitting historical highs [1] Institutional Insights - According to招商证券, the market tends to favor large-cap stocks following the Central Economic Work Conference, with historical data showing that sectors like oil, telecommunications, and electronics have higher probabilities of rising in the week after the conference [5] - 国泰海通 anticipates that macroeconomic policies in 2026 will maintain a positive tone, focusing on counter-cyclical adjustments without excessive stimulus, with a projected fiscal deficit rate around 4% [6][7] - 广发证券 highlights that the new policy framework introduced in the recent conference emphasizes balancing supply and demand, enhancing quality while expanding total output, and investing in human capital alongside physical investments [8]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year [1] - The Fed's dovish signals and the announcement of a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan have weakened the US dollar and lowered US Treasury yields, reducing the holding costs for gold assets and creating upward potential for gold prices [1] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for 13 consecutive months, indicating a strong long-term support for gold assets [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index has risen by 2.17%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 7.28%) and Western Gold (up 6.23%) [2] - The gold stock ETF has seen an active trading volume with a turnover rate of 11.96% and a transaction value of 12.96 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [2] - The gold stock ETF has experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 6.22 million yuan over the past week [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.26% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [3] - The index is composed of 50 large-cap stocks involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2][3]

12月11日，早盘指数走势分化，逾股3200飘红，半日成交1.2万亿，较昨日放量799.6亿。截至午间收 盘，上证指数跌0.04%，深证成指涨0.57%，创业板指涨0.6%。 盘面上，贵金属反复走强，晓程科技领涨，中金黄金、西部黄金、山金国际等跟涨；电网设备走高，风 范股份、长城电工涨停；商业航天概念活跃，华菱线缆、中超控股2连板，东方通信、长城电工涨停； 可控核聚变概念拉升，雪人集团2连板，国机重装、中国一重此前涨停。 值得注意的是，摩尔线程出现回调，股价一度回落至800元下方。 消息面上，公司昨日发布股票交易风险提示公告，公告列明了业绩亏损风险：2025年1-9月，公司营业 收入为7.85亿元，归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-7.24亿元。公司预计2025年归属于母公司股东的净利 润为-11.68亿元至-7.30亿元。 下跌方面，零售、海南自贸区等板块回调。 展望后市，招商证券认为，中央经济工作会议整体延续相对积极的表态。从过往市场表现经验来看，会 后7天大盘风格往往相对占优。 热门板块 1、贵金属反复走强 贵金属反复走强，晓程科技领涨，中金黄金、西部黄金、山金国际等跟涨。 点评：消息面上，美联储12月10 ...