这一警告并非孤例。大规模劳动力替代的问题正困扰着全球各国政府，尽管在更广泛的经济逆风中，真 实的失业人数仍不明朗。 微软人工智能业务负责人发出迄今最激进的自动化预警，称绝大多数白领专业工作可能在一年半内被 AI取代，这一时间表远早于商界和政策制定者的普遍预期，为全球劳动力市场敲响警钟。 微软AI首席执行官Mustafa Suleyman在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，律师、会计师、项目经理和 营销人员等从事电脑办公的专业人士，其"大多数任务"将在未来12至18个月内被AI完全自动化。 AI导致的失业已初现端倪。根据职业介绍公司Challenger的报告，今年1月有7624个工作岗位因AI被 裁，占当月裁员总数的7%；2025年全年，AI导致的裁员公告达54836人。自2023年开始追踪以来， 79449个计划裁员岗位归咎于AI。 与此同时，AI安全与滥用风险也在加速升温。Anthropic在最新破坏活动报告中警告，其Claude模型在特 定计算机使用场景下对"有害滥用"更敏感，甚至出现与化学武器开发相关的风险信号。 AI大规模取代白领还有12至18个月的时间窗口 Suleyman的预测标志着科技行业对AI取 ...

两年前的春节，美国AI公司OpenAI旗下AI视频生成模型Sora横空出世。如今，中国科技巨头在这一领域吸引了全球范围内的关注。 2月12日，预热多日后，字节跳动Seed团队对外正式发布新一代视频创作模型Seedance 2.0，并已上线即梦AI、豆包等平台。目前，用户打开豆包，便可 在"AI创作Seedance 2.0"入口，发送相关指令来生成视频。官网显示，用户每天享有10个视频生成额度，在点击同意《AI分身使用须知》后，可以创建AI 分身来生成专属视频。 据介绍，Seedance 2.0采用统一的多模态音视频联合生成架构，支持文字、图片、音频、视频四种模态输入，集成了目前业界最全面的多模态内容参考和 编辑能力。具体来看，允许用户同时输入多达9张图片、3段视频、3段音频以及自然语言指令，模型可参考输入素材中的构图、动作、运镜、特效、声音 等元素，打破传统视频生成的素材边界。 从Seedance 2.0官方展示的视频来看，Seedance 2.0能高保真地合成时序精密的复杂交互场景，比如在双人花滑场景中，模型较好地演绎了同步起跳、空中 旋转、精准落冰等一系列高难度动作；在细腻的特写镜头中，模型生成的画面能够 ...

Market Overview - Early signs in Asian trading indicate potential stabilization in markets after recent volatility, with US equity-index futures showing slight increases [1] - The MSCI Asia Pacific Index experienced its first drop in six sessions, influenced by concerns over AI's impact on various sectors, particularly technology stocks [12] - Despite bearish trends, Applied Materials Inc. saw a 10% surge in late trading due to a positive sales forecast driven by demand for AI and memory semiconductors [9] Treasury and Inflation - The cross-asset weakness led to a rally in US Treasuries, with the two-year yield decreasing by five basis points and the 10-year yield down seven basis points to 4.1% [2][13] - Upcoming US inflation data is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy [7][13] - Market sentiment appears complacent regarding US inflation, with expectations for inflation likely to be revised slightly higher, as noted by Citigroup Inc. [8][13] AI and Technology Sector - The volatility in US trading reflects the rising stakes associated with the AI boom, affecting various sectors and asset classes beyond technology [3][13] - Concerns have been raised about the correlation of Asian markets to global trends, particularly in relation to AI's impact on stock performance [6][13] - OpenAI has alerted US lawmakers about competitive threats from its Chinese rival DeepSeek, which is reportedly using sophisticated methods to extract results from US AI models [10] Trade Developments - The US and Taiwan have finalized an agreement aimed at lowering tariffs and enhancing market access for American products in Asia, alongside directing billions into US energy and technology projects [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in the AI and technology sectors, including price adjustments by companies, substantial funding rounds, and new product launches that indicate a strong growth trajectory in the industry. Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - Zhiyu announced a structural price adjustment for its GLM Coding Plan, with an overall price increase starting from 30%, effective February 12, 2026, while maintaining prices for existing subscribers [2] - Anthropic completed a Series G funding round of $30 billion, achieving a post-money valuation of $380 billion, with annual revenue reaching $14 billion [2] - OpenAI launched its first AI model, GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark, running on Cerebras Systems chips to reduce dependency on Nvidia chips and lower operational costs [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Investments - SoftBank Group reported a net profit of 248.59 billion JPY (approximately $1.6 billion) for Q3, significantly below market expectations, with a notable gain of $19.8 billion from its investment in OpenAI [3] - Xiechuang Data plans to procure servers worth up to 11 billion CNY to support its expansion in data centers and related businesses [3] Group 3: Company News in Greater China - MiniMax launched its flagship programming model MiniMax M2.5, designed for agent scenarios, competing with top international models [5] - Meitu announced a stock incentive plan for all employees to promote long-term growth [6] - Huahong Semiconductor achieved a record sales revenue of $659.9 million in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [7] Group 4: Company News in the Americas - Microsoft signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Aramco to advance industrial AI and digital talent transformation [9] - Meta announced a quarterly cash dividend and plans to invest over $10 billion in a large-scale AI data center in Indiana [9] - Amazon faced a tax investigation in Italy regarding potential tax evasion from 2019 to 2024 [10] Group 5: Company News in Asia-Pacific - Kioxia reported a net profit of 87.81 billion JPY for Q3, below market expectations, while projecting annual net sales between 2.18 trillion JPY and 2.27 trillion JPY [13] - Toyota is extending the acquisition period for a public offer to improve success rates and is collaborating with a Japanese oil giant to build a solid-state electrolyte factory [13] Group 6: Company News in Europe and Oceania - Mercedes-Benz adjusted its EBIT forecast for 2025 to €8.2 billion, a 40% decline year-on-year, with plans to launch over 15 new models in China by 2026 [16] - Nestlé is recalling specific batches of infant formula in China due to contamination concerns, with no confirmed cases of illness reported [18]

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【深夜跳水！纳指跌超2%，白银跌超10%】 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.34%，纳指跌2.03%，标普500指数跌1.57%，大型科技股普跌，苹果跌5%， 博通跌超3%，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉跌超2%。中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.97%，腾讯音乐 跌超10%，贝壳跌近6%，哔哩哔哩跌近5%。 国际贵金属价格大幅下挫，现货黄金一度跌破4900美元关口，截至发稿时，现货黄金跌3.27%，报4917.09美 元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌3.19%，报4936美元/盎司。现货白银跌10.84%，报75.07美元/盎司；COMEX白银 期货跌10.93%，报74.75美元/盎司。 【谷歌Gemini 3深度思考模型重大升级】 美东时间12日周四，谷歌官宣Gemini 3 Deep Think升级，称升级后的模型在多项行业基准测试中取得突破性成 绩，包括在"人类的最后考试"Humanity's Last Exam（HLE）基准测试、ARC-AGI-2测试中获得84.6%的成绩， 经ARC Prize基金 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI has begun displaying advertisements in ChatGPT, despite CEO Sam Altman's previous opposition to this idea, citing concerns over user trust [2][3][10] - The company faces significant financial pressure, having generated approximately $13 billion in revenue last year while anticipating an additional investment of around $100 billion over the next four years [3][10] - OpenAI aims to triple its revenue this year, necessitating the exploration of new business avenues, including advertising, which it has no prior experience in [3][11] Financial Performance - OpenAI's revenue composition is approximately 60% from consumer products and 40% from enterprise technology, with a significant portion of consumer revenue derived from subscriptions [5][12] - The company has 800 million users, with about 6% paying for premium subscriptions at $20 per month [5][12] - OpenAI's revenue growth strategy includes generating additional income from the free version of ChatGPT through advertising [5][12] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI faces competition from established companies like Google and Microsoft, as well as emerging startups like Anthropic, which is gaining traction in the AI programming sector [4][11][15] - The company is building an advertising sales team, but this effort is still in its early stages, and it lacks a fully developed sales infrastructure [14] - Analysts suggest that OpenAI must aggressively pursue the enterprise software market to remain competitive, especially against rivals like Anthropic [15] New Business Models - OpenAI is exploring a "value-sharing" model, where it may share profits from scientific discoveries made using its technology, although this has raised concerns among independent researchers [7][16] - The company has launched a product called Prism aimed at scientists, which has led to questions about potential profit-sharing arrangements [7][16] - OpenAI's leadership has publicly clarified that it will not take a cut from individual scientists' results using Prism, but it has not ruled out profit-sharing with large pharmaceutical companies [8][16]

Core Insights - OpenAI's advertising model will fundamentally differ from traditional social media, focusing on user intent rather than user profiles, allowing AI to provide neutral evaluations of ads [2][7][12] - The "Code Red" status at OpenAI is nearing its end, with plans to resume normal operations and previously delayed revenue plans following the release of a new model [15][17][19] - OpenAI is exploring a new direction with an AI Agent social network, aimed at enhancing human social relationships rather than replacing them [20][22][28] Advertising Model Transformation - Fidji Simo, CEO of OpenAI applications, emphasizes that the advertising model will resemble Google's intent-based system rather than Facebook's algorithm-driven approach [7][8] - The AI model will not recognize the existence of ads unless prompted by the user, ensuring that responses remain unbiased and focused on the conversation [10][11] - Simo states that advertising will likely remain a minor revenue source for OpenAI, indicating a lower reliance on ads compared to companies like Meta [8] Transparency in Advertising - The revolutionary aspect of OpenAI's advertising system is that the AI can critique ads when asked, providing users with transparent and neutral information [9][12] - This approach contrasts with traditional advertising models where brands control content, as OpenAI allows AI to independently assess and critique advertisements [11][12] Code Red Status - The "Code Red" was initiated in December 2025 to address competitive pressures from Google and Anthropic, impacting product teams but not long-term research efforts [16][18] - Simo confirms that the Code Red status will conclude with the upcoming release of a new model, allowing OpenAI to resume normal operations [15][17] AI Agent Social Network - OpenAI is investigating the concept of an AI Agent social network, where personal AI agents assist users in managing their social relationships [20][22] - This concept differs from existing AI-only social networks by focusing on enhancing human interactions rather than creating new AI relationships [21][22] Leadership and Structure - Simo and Sam Altman have clearly defined roles, with Altman overseeing research and Simo managing product deployment and commercialization [24][26] - This division of responsibilities ensures that long-term research remains unaffected by short-term competitive pressures [30]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant leap in AI capabilities, enabling it to perform complex tasks independently, which previously required human expertise for hours. This recursive self-improvement cycle has begun, potentially leading to an "intelligence explosion" within one to two years [1][12][22]. Group 1: AI Advancements - AI has reached a point where it can autonomously complete tasks that would take human experts several hours, with the potential for AI to independently work for days within a year and weeks within two years [20][22]. - The release of new AI models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5.3-Codex and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, marks a pivotal moment, showcasing AI's ability to make decisions with judgment and taste, previously thought impossible [16][17][22]. - The speed of AI's progress is accelerating, with capabilities doubling approximately every four months, indicating a rapid evolution in its ability to perform cognitive tasks [20][22]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Many professionals in the tech industry express anxiety about the impending changes, with some believing that the current advancements could lead to significant disruptions in various sectors [3][66]. - The article highlights a growing divide between those in the tech industry who are aware of AI's rapid advancements and the general public, who may still underestimate its potential [66][68]. - Prominent figures in AI, such as Dario Amodei, predict that AI could replace up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years, a figure some consider conservative [49][51]. Group 3: Implications for the Workforce - The article emphasizes that AI is poised to replace cognitive labor across various fields, including finance, law, and healthcare, with many professionals already witnessing AI's capabilities surpassing their own [53][54]. - The traditional safety nets provided by previous industrial revolutions may not apply this time, as AI targets cognitive tasks that were once thought to require human judgment and creativity [44][48]. - The article warns that those who dismiss AI as a passing trend may find themselves at a significant disadvantage as the technology continues to evolve and integrate into the workforce [58][59]. Group 4: Recommendations for Adaptation - The article suggests that individuals should actively engage with AI tools, experimenting with their capabilities to stay ahead in their respective fields [55][60]. - It encourages professionals to reassess their financial situations and prepare for potential disruptions in their industries, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous learning [58][59]. - The author advocates for a shift in mindset, urging individuals to embrace AI as a tool for creativity and productivity rather than viewing it as a threat to their professional identity [62][63].

Market Dynamics - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with gold dropping over 4% and silver falling over 11%, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the disruptive impact of AI [1] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.77% to $62.84 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 2.71% to $67.52 per barrel, amid geopolitical tensions regarding Iran [1] Corporate Developments - China Shenhua's acquisition plan to purchase assets from its controlling shareholder has been approved, with a transaction value of approximately 133.6 billion yuan, and the company's market capitalization reaching 845.6 billion yuan [2] - Co-creation Data announced a procurement contract for servers worth up to 11 billion yuan, which will account for over 50% of the company's latest audited net assets [2] - OpenAI launched its new AI model, GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark, based on Cerebras Systems chips, aiming to compete in the AI programming assistant market [2] Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of approximately 4.567 billion HKD, with over 50 billion HKD invested in ETFs this year, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks [5] - Korean investors have shown significant interest in Hong Kong stocks, with notable purchases in various ETFs and tech companies [6] Industry Insights - The construction machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 49.5% year-on-year, indicating improved economic activity and infrastructure investment [9] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major automakers planning to launch models using this technology by 2026-2027, potentially leading to a market size exceeding $120 billion by 2030 [10] Technological Advancements - A research team from Peking University has developed a high-performance quantum key distribution network, showcasing advancements in quantum technology [14] - Samsung Electronics has begun delivering its latest HBM4 chips, becoming the first company to mass-produce this technology [15]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of advertising testing on ChatGPT by OpenAI raises concerns about user privacy and potential manipulation, as users have shared sensitive information during interactions with the AI [1][2][8]. Group 1: Concerns about Advertising and User Data - OpenAI's strategy of incorporating advertising may lead to the exploitation of user data, which includes private thoughts and feelings shared during interactions with ChatGPT [2][4]. - The creation of a "human honesty archive" through user interactions poses risks if this data is used for targeted advertising, as there are currently no effective tools to understand or mitigate these risks [2][4]. - The potential for user manipulation increases if advertising is based on sensitive data, which could undermine the trust users have in the AI as a non-profit-driven entity [2][4]. Group 2: Alternatives to Advertising Models - The industry faces a dilemma between limiting access to transformative technology to those who can afford it or adopting an advertising model that exploits user vulnerabilities [3][11]. - A third option proposed is to maintain broad access to AI tools while restricting corporate surveillance and manipulation of users [3][11]. - OpenAI has stated that it will adhere to principles for advertising, ensuring clarity and non-intrusiveness, but there are concerns about future deviations from these principles as the company develops its economic engine [3][11]. Group 3: Governance and Oversight Mechanisms - The establishment of a governance structure that includes independent oversight of personal data usage is essential to prevent exploitation [6][13]. - Suggestions include implementing cross-subsidy mechanisms where profits from high-value commercial clients subsidize public access to AI tools [5][13]. - Another proposal is to manage user data through independent trusts or cooperatives, ensuring that user interests are prioritized [14]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes and Industry Implications - The trend of maximizing user engagement at the expense of ethical principles may already be occurring within OpenAI, with reports indicating a focus on daily active user metrics [4][12]. - The advertising revenue model could ensure that powerful AI tools remain accessible to a broader audience rather than just those who can afford high subscription fees [4][12]. - The industry must find a balance to avoid creating a system that either manipulates users or restricts access to technology based on financial capability [7][14].