证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 01 05 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点——20260104 【宏观】2026"国补"4 大看点—兼评 12 月 PMI 超季节性回升—— 20251231 【策略】1 月策略观点与金股推荐：配置趋势共识，博弈产业催化—— 20260104 【策略】人民币升值下的投资线索——20260101 【金融工程】上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨——20260104 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标弱化——20260104 【固定收益】一月债市的风险和机会——20260104 【固定收益】资金平稳跨年，新年政府债发行开启——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260103 【固定收益】缓和的落地，节后债市修复——20260101 【通信】无光不 AI，硅基光电子引爆新一轮算力革命——20260104 【化工】2026 年度策略：—迎接破晓时刻——20260101 【电新】光伏：反内卷带来行业拐点，新技术引领突围——20260104 【有色金属】2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - HLA is seeking new transformation opportunities through a partnership with Adidas, launching a commemorative sweatshirt and upgrading its running community, "Lan Run Study Society" [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy - HLA has been actively sponsoring various sports events, indicating its interest in the sports sector [1] - The men's clothing business has been HLA's main focus, but it faces challenges and potential market saturation [1][2] - The collaboration with Adidas is seen as a strategic move to explore new growth areas, particularly in the sports market [2] Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - HLA's traditional strengths include efficient supply chain management and cost-effective product positioning, but it faces challenges from declining offline traffic and rising online costs [2] - The brand is experiencing pressure from both high-end market competition and low-cost alternatives, leading to a strategic transformation [2] - HLA operates 5,631 stores across 31 provincial-level regions in China, with plans to expand its Adidas stores to over 700 by the end of 2025 [3] Group 3: Collaboration Insights - The partnership with Adidas is expected to enhance HLA's capabilities in reaching lower-tier cities, which is crucial for Adidas's local market development [3] - Experts suggest that HLA needs to build a professional sports brand operation team to effectively compete in the sports apparel market [4]

Core Viewpoint - HLA (海澜之家) is seeking new transformation opportunities through a partnership with Adidas, aiming to build a "Sports+" ecosystem to enhance its market presence and adapt to the competitive sports market [1][3][4] Group 1: Partnership Details - The collaboration aims to create an open, complementary, and sustainable "Sports+" ecosystem, focusing on event operations, product co-creation, public welfare actions, and cultural dissemination [3] - HLA and Adidas have launched a commemorative hoodie and plan to upgrade the "Lan Run Study Society," providing sports support to children in remote areas [3][9] - The partnership will enhance runner service experiences in road and trail running events, transitioning the "Lan Run Study Society" into a comprehensive running service ecosystem [3][8] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - HLA is the second-largest men's apparel brand globally by revenue as of 2024 and has maintained the top position in the Asian men's apparel market for 11 consecutive years since 2014 [6] - HLA's revenue from 2019 to 2024 showed fluctuations, with figures of 21.97 billion, 17.96 billion, 20.19 billion, 18.56 billion, 21.53 billion, and 20.96 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 15.09%, -18.26%, 12.41%, -8.06%, 15.98%, and -2.65% respectively [6] - The net profit during the same period was 3.21 billion, 1.79 billion, 2.49 billion, 2.16 billion, 2.95 billion, and 2.16 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.07%, -44.42%, 39.6%, -13.49%, 36.96%, and -26.88% [6] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - HLA is facing challenges in its casual men's apparel business, with potential risks of reaching a growth ceiling, prompting the need for strategic transformation [7][8] - Under the leadership of the new chairman, HLA has expanded its brand matrix to include trendy men's wear, luxury women's wear, and children's brands, while also seeking overseas market development [7] - HLA's overseas revenue reached 206 million CNY in the first half of 2025, marking a 27.42% increase, with plans for further expansion into Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The partnership is seen as a way for HLA to leverage Adidas's sports expertise while allowing Adidas to penetrate lower-tier markets through HLA's extensive distribution network [4][10][11] - HLA operates 5,631 stores across 31 provincial-level regions in China, providing a significant channel for Adidas to reach a broader consumer base [10] - The collaboration is viewed as a critical step for both companies to adapt to the increasingly competitive sports market in China, where multiple brands are vying for market share [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9][18]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported strong performance for the first three quarters of FY2025, with revenue growth of 2.7% year-on-year to €28.2 billion, and a net profit increase of 3.9% to €4.6 billion [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector amidst a fluctuating consumer environment, predicting that it will outperform the broader apparel market [3][17]. - The report highlights the importance of inventory management, noting that Inditex's inventory quality remains healthy, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% to €4.499 billion [1][15]. Summary by Sections Inditex Performance - Inditex's revenue for FY2025's first three quarters reached €28.2 billion, with a currency-neutral growth of 6.2%. Q3 revenue alone grew by 4.9% to €9.8 billion [1][13]. - Gross margin improved by 0.27 percentage points to 59.7% for the first three quarters, with Q3 gross margin rising by 0.79 percentage points to 62.2% [1][13]. - The company aims for a 5% increase in total sales area from 2025 to 2026, while maintaining stable gross margins [2][15]. Sportswear Sector Outlook - The sportswear segment is expected to show strong long-term growth, with recommended stocks including Anta Sports and Li Ning, which have projected PE ratios of 14 and 17 for FY2026, respectively [3][17]. - The report also suggests that Nike's retail operations in Greater China are undergoing a turnaround, with a current PE ratio of 13 for the recommended stock, Tmall [3][17]. Apparel Manufacturing and Brand Recommendations - The apparel manufacturing sector is anticipated to see improved orders in 2026, with recommendations for companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have attractive valuations [3][18]. - The report highlights the potential for steady growth in the down jacket segment, recommending Bosideng, with a projected PE of 12 for FY2026 [18]. Market Performance - The brand apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.13%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59% [21][22]. - Key stocks such as Red Dragonfly and Luolai Life saw significant weekly gains, while others like Jiuwu Wang faced declines [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between HLA (海澜之家) and Adidas is evolving into a deeper partnership aimed at creating a "Sports+" ecosystem, with HLA focusing on internationalization and Adidas emphasizing local market penetration [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership Development - HLA and Adidas have been collaborating for over two years, with hundreds of Adidas FCC stores established, marking a significant growth in their partnership [6]. - The partnership is characterized by HLA's control over product procurement through its subsidiary, Spobz, which allows for local marketing and pricing strategies [7]. - The "Sports+" ecosystem aims to integrate various dimensions such as event operations, product co-creation, public welfare actions, and cultural dissemination, with sports as the core value [9]. Group 2: Market Insights - The running sports segment is rapidly growing, with a projected annual consumer spending of 16.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 26% increase from 2023 [10]. - In the direct spending of runners, apparel and wearable professional gear account for nearly 60% of expenditures, indicating a strong market for sports apparel [11]. - Adidas has identified running shoes as a key growth driver in its revenue from the Chinese market, while HLA has been strategically positioning itself in the running segment [11]. Group 3: Community Engagement and Events - HLA is launching the "Lan Running Study Society" to provide a platform for runners, with its flagship event, the HLA POW "King of Challenge" competition, attracting over 10,000 participants from 22 provinces [12][14]. - HLA has sponsored various marathons and sports events, contributing to the development of community sports and promoting a culture of fitness [14]. - The partnership with Adidas will enhance the "Lan Running Study Society" and expand collaboration in popular running events, aiming to provide professional support to Chinese runners [14]. Group 4: Product Innovation and Social Responsibility - HLA and Adidas have introduced a commemorative sweatshirt that blends Eastern aesthetics with sports design, symbolizing cultural confidence and vitality [17]. - The collaboration also focuses on social responsibility, with initiatives aimed at supporting sports in underprivileged areas, building on HLA's long-standing public welfare project [17]. - The partnership reflects a shared commitment to "commercial benevolence," aiming to create a more vibrant sports ecosystem for consumers [17].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between HLA (海澜之家) and Adidas is evolving into a deeper partnership, focusing on building a "Sports +" ecosystem that integrates sports with various dimensions such as event operations, product co-creation, public welfare actions, and cultural dissemination [4][15][21]. Group 1: Collaboration and Strategy - HLA has been an agent for Adidas for over two years, and the recent announcement marks the first offline public declaration of their partnership [5][9]. - HLA's chairman, Zhou Licheng, noted that the partnership has transitioned from initial exploration to a significant collaboration, with hundreds of Adidas FCC stores established [9]. - The partnership aims to leverage the strengths of both brands, with HLA focusing on internationalization and Adidas emphasizing local market penetration [6][9]. Group 2: Market Insights and Trends - The running sports segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected annual consumer spending of 16.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 26% increase from 2023 [17]. - In the direct spending of runners, clothing and wearable professional gear account for nearly 60% of expenditures [18]. - E-commerce platforms like JD, Taobao, and Tmall reported a 17.5% increase in sports goods retail sales in the first half of 2025, reaching 218.17 billion yuan, significantly outpacing the overall online retail growth of 6% [18]. Group 3: Community Engagement and Social Responsibility - HLA is committed to fostering a running community through initiatives like the "Lan Run Study Society," which aims to empower runners and has attracted over 10,000 participants in its flagship event [19][21]. - The partnership will enhance the "Lan Run Study Society" and expand collaboration in various running events, contributing to the development of a more inclusive sports culture in China [21][22]. - HLA and Adidas are also focusing on social responsibility, with initiatives aimed at supporting sports in remote areas and upgrading HLA's long-standing public welfare project, "One More Gram of Warmth," which has benefited over 300,000 students since its inception [27].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural bull market, with significant performance disparities among active equity funds, highlighted by the top-performing fund achieving a record annual return of 233.29% while others faced substantial losses, including the worst performer with a -19.65% return [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 18.41%, 29.87%, 49.57%, and 35.92% respectively in 2025 [1]. - A total of 4888 active equity products from 160 public fund institutions reported positive returns, while 144 products from 68 institutions experienced losses [1][9]. Group 2: Fund Performance Disparities - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection, achieved a record annual return of 233.29%, surpassing the previous record set by Wang Yawei in 2007 [1]. - The worst-performing fund, Xinyuan Consumption Selection, recorded a -19.65% return, marking a significant gap of 252.94% from the top performer [2][4]. Group 3: Xinyuan Consumption Selection Analysis - Xinyuan Consumption Selection's poor performance is attributed to aggressive trading strategies, frequent personnel changes, and scale challenges, leading to a lack of coherent investment logic [3][5]. - The fund's industry allocation showed erratic shifts, moving from heavy investments in pharmaceuticals to technology and later to media, missing key market trends [5][6]. Group 4: Fund Manager Insights - Notable fund managers, including Wang Mingxu and Han Weijun, saw their products listed among the worst performers, with their total managed assets shrinking by over 70% compared to previous peaks [3][9][12]. - Xinyuan Consumption Selection faced a critical challenge to meet its scale assessment, needing to grow from 0.29 billion to 2 billion within three months [7][8]. Group 5: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional ownership in Xinyuan Consumption Selection dropped from over 95% to 42.94% by mid-2025, indicating a significant withdrawal of institutional funds [7]. - The trend of multiple products from the same fund manager appearing on the loss list highlights a broader issue within the industry, affecting even previously successful managers [9][10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the domestic consumption sector, with policies aimed at boosting consumer spending through increased household income, including minimum wage hikes and corporate salary increases [1][4][5] - The service consumption sector is expected to benefit from reforms in pricing mechanisms, particularly in healthcare, transportation, and public utilities [1][6] - The retail sector, especially offline retail, is seen as a crucial driver for domestic demand, supported by policies for updating commercial facilities [1][12] Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Policy Effectiveness**: The effectiveness of consumer promotion policies is anticipated to exceed market expectations, with significant increases in minimum wage across provinces, averaging over 8% [4][5] - **Service Sector Reforms**: Reforms in service pricing, particularly in healthcare, are expected to enhance the income of service providers while controlling costs for consumers [6] - **Product Innovation**: In the goods consumption sector, companies that excel in innovation and new supply offerings are likely to thrive, moving away from traditional consumer upgrade logic [7] - **Tourism and Local Policies**: Local government competition is expected to stimulate tourism, benefiting cultural and agricultural sectors [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - **Retail Performance**: The first quarter of 2026 is projected to be crucial for leading regional retail companies, with expectations of strong performance during the extended Spring Festival [12] - **Cross-Border E-commerce**: Currency fluctuations have a limited impact on leading cross-border e-commerce companies, with exchange rate losses being a minor portion of profits [13] - **Household Appliances and Smart Hardware**: The government has initiated a subsidy plan for key household appliance categories, with a total subsidy of approximately 250 billion for 2026, focusing on six core categories [19][20] - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The food and beverage sector is expected to hit a performance bottom in Q1 2026, with a gradual recovery anticipated in Q2 [22] Future Outlook - **Economic Rebalancing**: The macroeconomic narrative is shifting towards economic rebalancing, with a cautious optimism for 2026 as supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve [8][9] - **Investment Opportunities**: Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from government support, particularly in smart home and wearable technology, with a focus on companies like Midea, Haier, and TCL [20][21] - **Pork Market Expectations**: The pork market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to stabilize and improve, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the industry [16] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the key themes and potential investment opportunities across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between HLA and Adidas has evolved from traditional commercial cooperation to a comprehensive "Sports +" ecosystem, aiming to enhance both brands' market reach and social impact [2][16]. Group 1: Partnership Overview - HLA and Adidas announced a two-year partnership upgrade to co-create the "HLA × Adidas Sports +" ecosystem, focusing on resource complementarity and broader consumer engagement [2][4]. - The partnership will leverage HLA's extensive retail channels and Adidas's advanced sports technology to enhance competitiveness in the sports and leisure market [6]. Group 2: Ecosystem Development - The collaboration will focus on three main pillars: systematic upgrades to the "Lan Run Study Club," enhancement of the "One More Gram of Warmth" charity initiative, and the launch of a commemorative sweatshirt for the Year of the Horse [4][6]. - The "Lan Run Study Club" aims to provide a platform for runners, with its flagship event, the HLA POW "King Challenge," attracting over 10,000 participants and achieving over a million views in live broadcasts [8][9]. Group 3: Social Responsibility - The "One More Gram of Warmth" initiative has reached over 30,000 students across 1,700 schools since its inception in 2014, focusing on providing sports support to children in remote areas [12]. - This initiative reflects the "business for good" philosophy, integrating social responsibility into the ecosystem and promoting equitable access to sports education [12]. Group 4: Product Launch - The HLA x Adidas Year of the Horse commemorative sweatshirt combines Chinese zodiac culture with international sports design, catering to year-end consumer demand and marking the first product of the "Sports +" ecosystem [13][14]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The partnership signifies a shift from mere channel and product integration to a holistic approach encompassing brand value, user engagement, and social responsibility [16]. - This collaboration serves as a benchmark for the apparel and sports industry, demonstrating that breaking traditional boundaries can create new opportunities for sustainable growth and social value [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.26 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company is maintaining its leading position in the men's apparel sector while expanding its new business formats, which may take time to reflect in performance. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 0.46, 0.48, and 0.51 CNY respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025, which is above the industry average [7][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,528 million CNY, with a slight decline to 20,957 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 21,610 million CNY in 2025, representing a 3.1% increase [8][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,952 million CNY in 2023 to 2,159 million CNY in 2024, before gradually increasing to 2,470 million CNY by 2027 [8][11]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 18.4% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 13.9% by 2027 [8][11]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 6.13 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 6.09 to 8.78 CNY [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 29,441 million CNY and a net asset value per share of 3.75 CNY, resulting in a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.6 [3][2]. Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its partnership with Adidas, aiming to create a "sports+" ecosystem and has opened over 500 Adidas stores, with expectations to exceed 700 by the end of the year [10]. - The overseas revenue is projected to reach 360 million CNY in 2024, marking a 30.8% year-on-year growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.3% from 2022 to 2024 [10]. Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue for Q3 2025 is reported at 2.46 billion CNY, showing a 3.0% year-on-year growth, with a gradual improvement in revenue growth rates over the quarters [10]. - The gross margin for the main brand is 45.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of direct sales [10].