Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the coking coal industry, highlighting its strategic importance due to scarcity and irreplaceability [3][4]. Core Insights - Coking coal is recognized as a strategic resource, with its global value underscored by the U.S. Department of Energy listing metallurgical coal as a critical material. Despite recent price declines due to increased imports from Mongolia and reduced domestic steel demand, the report anticipates a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a potential price increase in the future [4][5]. - The report forecasts a significant improvement in the performance of coking coal companies as supply tightens and demand rises, particularly from developing countries. It suggests that the price of coking coal could stabilize around 2000 RMB/ton, with a range of 1500-2500 RMB/ton expected [4][5]. Global Supply - Global coking coal supply is projected to decline, with key producing countries experiencing reduced output. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.7% for coking coal production from 2025 to 2030 [4][5]. - In China, coking coal production is expected to decrease due to resource depletion and potential capacity exits, with a forecasted production of 59.47 million tons in 2025 [13][22]. - Russia's coking coal supply is also anticipated to decline, with production expected to drop due to severe losses in coal companies and limited domestic transport capacity [27][29]. - Australia is facing a reduction in coking coal supply as high-cost mines exit the market due to low prices and increased operational costs [34][39]. Global Demand - Global demand for coking coal is expected to rise, particularly driven by developing countries. The report predicts a CAGR of 0.9% for crude steel production from 2025 to 2030, with significant contributions from India and ASEAN countries [4][5][58]. - India's crude steel production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2025 to 2030, leading to increased consumption and imports of metallurgical coal [58][59]. - The report highlights that while China's steel demand is expected to decline slightly, the overall global steel demand is anticipated to stabilize and rebound, particularly in emerging markets [55][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coking coal companies with low market capitalization per ton of coal, such as Pingmei Shenma Energy, Hengyuan Coal Power, Shanxi Coking Coal, Jizhong Energy, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to see a recovery in performance in Q4 2025, driven by rising coal prices and a favorable supply-demand balance, with potential for a spring rally in Q1 2026 [1][7]. Price Trends - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 CNY/ton in Q3 2025 to 765 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, marking a 13.8% increase [3]. - In Q4 2025, the price fluctuated significantly, peaking at 834 CNY/ton before dropping to a low of 670 CNY/ton, yet still achieving a notable average increase [2]. Profitability Outlook - The profitability of coal companies is expected to improve, with thermal coal prices rising and coking coal prices also showing significant increases, particularly in long-term contracts [4]. - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port rose to 1726 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, a 10.5% increase from Q3 [4]. Production Dynamics - The "overproduction check" policy has led to a mixed production performance among listed coal companies, with some reporting declines while others saw increases in output [5]. - Major coal producers like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reported production decreases of 5.0% and 2.1% respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Energy reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [5]. Cost Management - Cost control remains a priority for coal companies, with strategies shifting from volume-driven to cost-focused approaches due to previous low coal prices [6]. - Despite a slight increase in costs expected in Q4 due to rising coal prices and year-end expense settlements, companies have managed to maintain a focus on cost efficiency [6]. Future Supply and Demand - The exit of certain coal supply capacities is anticipated to significantly improve the coal supply-demand balance, with a potential reduction of around 100 million tons if implemented nationwide [8]. - This policy aligns with previous market predictions and is expected to lead to a notable reduction in coal inventories, enhancing price elasticity in 2026 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-cap thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as high-elasticity coal firms like Yanzhou Coal Energy and Jin Coal Industry [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the factors on the news front, the prices of black - series commodity futures have turned from weak to strong recently, and the changes in the fundamentals tend to show a basic balance between supply and demand. It is expected that there is a high possibility of a moderately strong oscillation in the future market. It is advisable to arrange medium - to long - term buy - hedging or investment positions on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On January 26, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rose. The rebar price in Shenyang market increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the rebar prices in Hangzhou, Wuhan, Beijing, Baotou, and Chongqing markets rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Nanchang, Baotou, Shenyang, Harbin, and Guangzhou markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to decline, showing a trend of a golden cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News front: Europe and the United States will not impose additional tariffs on each other due to the Greenland issue for the time being, and the risk appetite of the global financial market has turned to recovery again. The US military is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has become the focus of geopolitical attention again. The international crude oil and energy prices have been significantly boosted by the tense situation in the Middle East and the low - temperature weather in Eurasia, and the strong energy prices have partially spilled over to the metal commodity market [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks, while the demand has declined, approaching the lowest level since mid - October last year and the second - lowest level since late February last year. Due to the weekly oversupply, the total inventory has started to increase. On the cost side, the spot price of iron ore has risen after significantly giving back the gains since December 25 last year, while the spot price of coke has been relatively stable after the fourth round of price cuts. However, urged by coke enterprises, more and more steel enterprises are considering accepting a new round of price increases for coke [10]. - Raw materials: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has decreased by 4.7% on a four - week basis compared to the previous period, but the arrival volume has increased by 3.6%. The port iron ore inventory has reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons, and steel mills have replenished their iron ore stocks to a 23 - day available level. Independent coking enterprises have slightly reduced production after following the increase in production of steel enterprises in the past four weeks. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded again since January 12. Except on January 16, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has exceeded 190,000 tons again, and the supply of imported coal has rebounded again. Considering the cold weather in most of the north, the supply and demand are still relatively balanced [10]. 3.2 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: The industry should promote the application of energy - saving technologies based on the three - year summary of extreme energy efficiency to promote the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry [11]. - Production data of key steel enterprises in mid - January 2026: The average daily output of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel products increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 7.3% compared with the previous ten - day period [11]. - Corporate performance: Shagang Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to increase by 50.69% - 78.37% year - on - year; Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 1.85 - 2.05 billion yuan in 2025; Huaibei Mining Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to decrease by about 69.21% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Coal and Electric Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of about 916 million yuan in 2025 [11][12]. - Market demand: China's demand for thermal coal decreased by 0.4% in 2025, and the proportion of the power industry further declined to 62.8% [12]. - International trade: Australia launched a safeguard measure investigation on imported pre - fabricated steel structures on January 23, 2026; Thailand decided to maintain the original anti - dumping tax rates on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan region, and Vietnam for another five years on January 22, 2026 [12]. - International situation: The US Treasury Department imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems on January 23; the world's crude steel output in December 2025 decreased by 3.7% year - on - year [12]. - Market expectation: The market believes that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the January monetary policy meeting has reached 95% [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The "overproduction check" effect continues to push up the coal price center, with demand fluctuations causing rapid price changes. From July to December 2025, domestic raw coal production fell for six consecutive months year-on-year, significantly improving the coal supply-demand balance. The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal rose from 621 RMB/ton on June 30, 2025, to 689 RMB/ton on January 20, 2026. In Q4 2025, despite significant monthly fluctuations in coal demand, the average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 RMB/ton in Q3 to 765 RMB/ton in Q4, a rise of 13.8% [4][5] - The profitability of the sector is expected to rebound, with coking coal enterprises likely to see significant improvements. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q4 2025 is reported at 765 RMB/ton, up 13.8% quarter-on-quarter. The long-term contract price for thermal coal also increased, with the average price for Q4 reported at 685 RMB/ton, up 2.3% [4][5] - Production levels are stable, with fluctuations among listed coal companies. The "overproduction check" policy strictly requires that annual production does not exceed announced capacity, impacting production levels in the second half of 2025. Major listed coal companies showed mixed production results in Q4, with China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reporting decreases of 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [4][5] - Cost control remains a key focus, although rising coal prices and year-end cost settlements may increase costs. In H1 2025, coal prices declined, prompting companies to shift from volume-based strategies to cost control. As coal prices rebound, costs are expected to rise slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 [4][5] - The sector's performance is expected to continue its positive trend into Q4 2025, with anticipated earnings growth. The coal price has shown a quarterly step-down trend, but Q4 2025 is expected to see a rebound in performance due to rising coal prices [4][5] Summary by Sections - **Performance of the Sector**: The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased significantly in Q4 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector's profitability [4][5] - **Production and Supply**: The "overproduction check" policy has led to a decrease in production, stabilizing the supply-demand balance [4][5] - **Cost Management**: Companies are focusing on cost control, with expectations of slight increases in costs due to rising coal prices [4][5] - **Future Outlook**: The coal sector is expected to see continued performance improvement into 2026, driven by supply-side policy changes and price rebounds [4][5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.12% with a trading volume of 1,312.82 million shares and a transaction value of 22,631.30 billion yuan, representing an 18.63% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 4.43% with a transaction value of 2,125.42 billion yuan, up 53.12% from the previous day, led by Xinweiling with a rise of 18.77% [1] - Oil and petrochemicals: increased by 4.34% with a transaction value of 249.22 billion yuan, up 31.70%, led by Tongyuan Petroleum with a rise of 13.42% [1] - Coal: increased by 2.37% with a transaction value of 111.32 billion yuan, up 60.37%, led by Huaibei Mining with a rise of 4.23% [1] Declining Industries - The worst-performing industries included: - National defense and military industry: decreased by 3.68% with a transaction value of 1,230.16 billion yuan, down 7.63%, led by Yaguang Technology with a decline of 12.24% [2] - Media: decreased by 2.21% with a transaction value of 751.18 billion yuan, down 9.68%, led by Giant Network with a decline of 8.63% [2] - Automotive: decreased by 2.11% with a transaction value of 937.05 billion yuan, down 17.57%, led by Kaizhong Co. with a decline of 10.02% [2]

1.皖能电力：以15.83亿元股权及17.27亿元现金向新能公司增资 5.淮北矿业：2025年净利同比预降69.21%左右 淮北矿业1月23日晚间发布业绩预告，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为14.95亿 元左右，与上年同期48.55亿元相比，将减少33.6亿元左右，同比减少69.21%左右。公司2025年年度业 绩大幅下降的主要原因为：公司2025年商品煤产量销量同比有所下降，叠加国内煤炭供需格局呈现宽松 态势，煤炭价格弱势运行，公司煤炭产品价格较同期下降明显，导致公司主营业务利润较同期大幅下 降。 6.科大国创：合肥国创质押股份数量为230万股 1月23日，皖能电力公告，公司拟以持有的全资子公司安徽省皖能能源交易有限公司100%股权（评估值 158348.00万元）及现金172738.49万元，向控股股东安徽省能源集团有限公司的全资子公司安徽省新能 创业投资有限责任公司增资；本次增资完成后，公司将持有新能公司51%股权。 2.中公教育：股东王振东拟被司法强制卖出837.39万股股份 中公教育公告称，公司股东王振东因借款合同纠纷，其持有的837.39万股无限售流通股股份将被司法强 制卖 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动，有望支撑煤价 反弹 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资提示： | 1．近期行业政策及动态 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2．产地动力煤价环比下跌、焦煤价环比持平 | 5 | | 3．国际油价上涨 | 6 | | 4．环渤海港口库存环比下降 | 7 | | 5．国内沿海运费环比上涨 | 8 | | 6．重点公司估值表 | 9 | | 7．风险提示 | 9 | ⚫ 动力煤 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - **Coke**: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].