Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.13%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.81%, primarily due to unexpected declines in photovoltaic electricity prices and increased asset and credit impairments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.111 billion yuan, which was below expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.067 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 31.37% and a dividend yield of 1.56% based on the stock price on May 9 [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.628 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47%, while the net profit was 2.447 billion yuan, an increase of 1.16% [1] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The company completed a power generation of 71.952 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.40%, with wind power generation at 45.173 billion kWh (up 15.96%) and photovoltaic generation at 25.401 billion kWh (up 65.43%) [2] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity for wind and solar reached 22.432 million kW and 24.266 million kW, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases [2] - In Q1 2025, the company sold its hydropower assets to focus on the renewable energy sector, resulting in an investment income of 736 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 572 million yuan [2] Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - The decline in net profit was attributed to increased depreciation and operating costs from new projects, a decrease in average on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar by 7.95% and 25.61%, respectively, and increased impairment provisions totaling 789 million yuan and 661 million yuan [3] - Despite the profit decline, the company's operating cash flow increased by 30.97% to 18.897 billion yuan in 2024, driven by improved electricity fee collections from new projects [4] - The company anticipates a recovery in profit growth as the impact of declining electricity prices diminishes, supported by ongoing capacity expansion [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.048 billion yuan and 7.688 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 8.305 billion yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, 16, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating that the valuation is near historical lows [5] - The company is expected to return to a historical average valuation of 21 times, suggesting a reasonable stock price of 5.25 yuan per share, representing a potential upside of 22% from the current price [5]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 首个省级 136 号实施细则出台，存量项目执 行国家上限 0.3949 元/千瓦时 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐亚辉 执业证书：S0600520070005 tangyh@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：山东省国家发改委首个 136 号文实施细则发布，存量新 能源电价收益保障：（1）存量项目全电量入市，实行国家上限机制电 价 0.3949 元/千瓦时，优化电量上限并衔接现有保障利用小时数（70%- 85%）；（2）增量项目竞价导向，按"低价优先"原则遴选项目，电价 不高于竞价上限（参考上年度结算均价），申报充足率下限设为 125%， 引导充分竞争。（3）电力辅助服务，充分提升系统灵活性。在现有调 频、爬坡辅助服务基础上，新增备用辅助服务交易，实现与现货市场的 联合出清，增强电网调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the public utility industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong Development and Reform Commission has released detailed rules for the market entry of new energy, categorizing incremental projects for bidding and setting bidding limits [4] - The implementation of the 136 document promotes the market formation of new energy grid connection prices, marking a new development phase for new energy [4] - The certainty of project pricing policies and project revenue has increased, suggesting a focus on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant shift in the pricing mechanism for new energy, with all wind and solar power generation entering the electricity market, and prices determined through market transactions [4] - Existing projects that were put into operation before May 31, 2025, will participate in market trading with a mechanism price set at a maximum of 0.3949 yuan per kilowatt-hour [4] Incremental Projects - Starting from June 1, 2025, new incremental projects will have their mechanism price determined through competitive bidding, with a bidding capacity of no less than 125% for 2025 [4] - The bidding limits will be based on reasonable cost returns, green value, market supply and demand, and user affordability [4] Market Transaction System - The report emphasizes the need to establish a robust market transaction system to support high-quality development of new energy [4] - It outlines the need for improved long-term market trading and pricing mechanisms, as well as enhancements to the spot market trading and pricing mechanisms [4]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for public utilities (000995) increased by 0.62% as of May 9, 2025, with notable gains from companies such as Datang Power (3.44%) and Sheneng Co. (3.04%) [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to launch high-quality projects with a total investment scale of approximately 3 trillion yuan in key sectors including transportation, energy, water conservancy, and new infrastructure [1] - Dongguan Securities highlights the importance of focusing on quality opportunities in the electricity and gas sectors, particularly in hydropower, where installed capacity is steadily increasing [1] Group 2 - The public utility ETF (560190) closely tracks the China Securities Index for public utilities and has seen a 0.82% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for public utilities account for 58.58% of the index, with major companies including Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company's revenue increased by 12.13% year-on-year to 29.717 billion yuan in 2024, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.81% to 6.111 billion yuan due to factors such as declining electricity prices and increased operational costs [1][8]. - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, with a planned installed capacity of 16.4385 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, including 4.8684 million kilowatts of wind power and 7.4501 million kilowatts of solar power [3][20]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward due to the impact of falling electricity prices, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion yuan in 2025, 7.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.74 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 7.4%, and 7.1% respectively [4][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan, a 12.13% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.111 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.81% [1][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.628 billion yuan, down 3.47%, and a net profit of 2.447 billion yuan, up 1.16% [2][9]. Project Development - The company is focusing on offshore wind power development in regions such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangsu, while also expanding into other areas like Shandong and Liaoning [3][20]. - By the end of 2024, the company plans to have 16.4385 million kilowatts of projects under construction, with significant contributions from wind and solar energy [3][20]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion yuan, 7.23 billion yuan, and 7.74 billion yuan respectively [4][21]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.2 for 2025, 16.9 for 2026, and 15.8 for 2027 [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The green power sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy and supportive government policies, with the National Green Power Index showing positive performance and the Green Power ETF gaining traction in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 9, 2025, the National Green Power Index increased by 0.49%, with key stocks such as Jingyuntong up by 4.58% and Jiazhe New Energy up by 4.55% [1]. - The Green Power ETF (159625) has seen a 0.44% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise [1]. - The trading volume for the Green Power ETF was 3.5%, with a total transaction value of 13.7257 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Growth - Over the past two weeks, the Green Power ETF's scale has grown by 6.029 million yuan, leading among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's shares increased by 6.8 million units in the same period, also ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - In the last 19 trading days, the Green Power ETF attracted a total of 22.647 million yuan in inflows [3]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Green Power ETF is 18.55, which is in the 13.64% percentile over the past three years, indicating a valuation lower than 86.36% of the time in the same period [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index accounted for 58.04% of the index, including major players like Changjiang Electric and China Nuclear Power [3]. - With the summer peak electricity demand approaching, the power industry is entering a traditional high season, coupled with an accelerated energy revolution and strong demand for green electricity [3]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in China reached 1.482 billion kilowatts, surpassing traditional thermal power capacity of 1.451 billion kilowatts for the first time [3]. Group 5: Government Policy - The 2025 government work report maintains a strong commitment to "green transformation," with a focus on the power sector and expectations for increased green electricity demand due to improved supply pressures and policy direction [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth and favorable valuation of the New Energy ETF, which has seen a notable increase in trading volume and fund size, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The New Energy ETF has a turnover rate of 2.42% during trading, with a transaction volume of 22.09 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 36.57 million yuan over the past year, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3] - The fund's size has increased by 42.11 million yuan in the past month, and its shares have grown by 51 million in the last six months, demonstrating substantial growth [3] Group 2 - The underlying index tracked by the New Energy ETF, the CSI New Energy Index, is currently valued at a historical low with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.99, which is below 87.04% of the time over the past three years, indicating attractive valuation [3] - In the first quarter, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 59.71 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with March alone seeing an installation of 20.24 GW, a remarkable increase of 124.39% year-on-year [3] - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector is poised for a recovery in fundamentals, driven by a gradual rebound in demand and supply-side constraints, alongside potential benefits from upcoming reform policies [3] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Index include CATL, LONGi Green Energy, Sungrow Power Supply, China National Nuclear Power, Three Gorges Energy, TBEA, Eve Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Tongwei Co., and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 44.26% of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction in China, aiming for full coverage by 2025, which is expected to enhance the flexibility of coal power generation and improve resource allocation in peak regulation and frequency modulation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) increased by 0.15%, with notable gains from Huadian Heavy Industries (2.07%), Dingsheng Technology (1.77%), and Guodian NARI Technology (1.42%) [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.38%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.05 yuan [3]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth of 515.49 million yuan in scale over the past six months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count increased by 9 million shares in the same period, also placing it in the top third of comparable funds [4]. - As of May 7, 2025, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 84.32% [4]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5]. - The index tracked by the ETF is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.4, below 98.08% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [5]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Yangtze Power (10.48%), Guodian NARI Technology (7.31%), and China Nuclear Power (6.30%), collectively accounting for 51.18% of the index [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 公用环保 2025 年 5 月投资策略 优于大市 国常会核准 10 台核电机组，广州中心城区自来水价 6 月 1 日上调 风险提示：环保政策不及预期；用电量增速下滑；电价下调；竞争加剧 核心观点 行业研究·行业月报 公用事业 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：黄秀杰 证券分析师：郑汉林 huangxiujie@guosen.com.cn zhenghanlin@guosen.com.cn 专题研究：近期自来水调价城市梳理。随着我国经济不断发展，水资源需 求激增，而供水成本亦因设施老化与水质提升工程而大幅攀升。据不完 全统计，除近期宣布调整的广州和深圳外，全国亦有 20 余个城市地区 自 2024 年起相继对水价进行了调整，旨在平衡资源稀缺性、供水成本 与企业运营压力，推动水务行业健康发展，在本周的专题研究中，我们 对这部分城市的调价情况进行了梳理。 投资策略：公用事业：1.煤价电价同步下行，火电盈利有望维持合理水 平，推荐全国大型火电企业华电国际以及区域电价较为坚挺的上海电 力；2.国家持续出台政策支持新能源发展，新能源发电盈利有望逐步趋 于稳健，推荐全国性新能源发电龙头企 ...

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...