证券研究报告 能源/工业 葡西法大范围停电，强化电网升级、 直流电网、黑启动机组必要性 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 动态点评 南欧部分区域突发大范围停电，波及多个国家 根据 BBC 等媒体报道，2025 年 4 月 28 日当地中午时间，西班牙、葡萄牙 以及法国南部部分地区突发大范围停电，对当地电力、通信、交通产生大面 积影响。停电事故发生原因仍在调查中，业内推测的可能原因包括极端气温、 网络袭击等。此次大停电事故或进一步强化欧洲电网升级投资需求，看好我 国电力设备出海企业投资机会：思源电气，三星医疗等；直流电网故障阻隔 优势或提升，看好国电南瑞，中国西电。其他产业链公司：许继电气，西门 子能源等。 停电后续影响或超预期，关注事态演变 截止 2025 年 4 月 28 日当地时间下午 14：30，法国电网运营商 RTE 表示 受影响地区已恢复供电，而西班牙输电网运营商 Red Electrica 表示恢复供 电需要 6~10 个小时，葡萄牙电力公司 REN 则表示完全恢复供电正常预计 需要一周。根据国网能源研究院复盘，历史上全球的数十次大停电事故中， 由天灾引发的不到 20%，而其他原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.4% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 440 million yuan, increasing by 28% [1] - Gross margin stood at 30.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin was 13.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic ultra-high voltage market has seen breakthroughs, with significant growth in grid investment; Q1 grid infrastructure completion reached 95.6 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year [2] - The company successfully won bids for 750kV equipment, marking a breakthrough in the high-end product market, which is expected to enhance gross margins in domestic operations [2] - International demand for power grid construction remains high, with transformer and high-voltage switch exports increasing by 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 3: Cost Management and Financial Health - Q1 2025 operating expenses were 480 million yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 14.8%, down 1.5 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [3] - Inventory at the end of Q1 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, while contract liabilities rose to 2.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, showing solid growth foundations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 2.73 billion, 3.54 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 33%, 30%, and 29%, respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 21x, 16x, and 12x, with a "buy" rating maintained [4]

业绩同比高速增长，费用管理能力优异 公司25 年Q1 实现营收32.27 亿元（yoy+21.41%），归母净利4.46 亿元（yoy+22.91%），实现扣非归母 净利4.37 亿元（yoy+28.10%）。公司25年Q1 实现毛、净利率30.31%、14.36%，同比-0.39、+0.76pct。 公司25年Q1 期间费用率14.79%，同比-1.49pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为5.03%、 2.77%、-0.90%、7.90%，同比持平、-0.22、-1.14、-0.14pct，费用管理能力优异。 海外需求保持强劲，海外营收占比持续提升 国内24 年变压器出口额67.0 亿美元，同增26.6%；25 年Q1 出口额18.2亿美元，同增38.5%，海外需求保 持强劲，公司的高电压等级产品出海或具备更强持续性。公司2024 年国内/海外业务分别实现收入 123.36、31.22亿元，同比增长19.74%、44.67%；海外占比达20.2%，同比+2.88pct。2024年公司在英 国、意大利、沙特、科威特等多个高端市场实现突破，我们认为后续盈利能力将伴随海外营收占比进一 步提升。 公司25 ...

Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 440 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.1%, meeting expectations [1] Operational Analysis - Domestic investment in the power grid reached a record high, with the State Grid completing fixed asset investments exceeding 90 billion yuan, a nearly 30% year-on-year increase [2] - The first batch of bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment by the State Grid amounted to 15.2 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, marking a four-year high [2] - The company secured contracts worth 1.05 billion yuan, including an unexpected 350 million yuan for 750kV GIS, enhancing its market share [2] - Transformer exports in Q1 2025 reached 1.82 billion USD, a 39% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained high growth [2] - The company made breakthroughs in markets such as the UK, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, benefiting from overseas demand for power equipment [2] Order Backlog and Targets - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 2.84 billion yuan, a 19.91% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a robust order backlog [3] - The company aims to secure new orders of 26.8 billion yuan (excluding tax) in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [3] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 18.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth expectation [3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's overall gross margin in Q1 2025 was 30.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D were 5.0%, 2.8%, and 7.9% respectively, showing stable management of expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has a clear development strategy and business plan, with expectations for continued revenue growth in various product lines [5] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.6 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.97 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 23% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 22, 18, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the inverter, photovoltaic, and electrical equipment industries, with specific emphasis on the performance of companies like Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Sungrow Power's Performance - Sungrow Power's Q1 revenue reached 3.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 800 million RMB, driven by strong exports to the U.S. and Middle Eastern markets [2][4] - Despite the strong performance, a decline in year-on-year comparisons is expected in Q2 and Q3 due to high export ratios to the U.S. in the previous year, leading to potential short-term stock price volatility [1][4] Market Dynamics - The European inverter market is recovering after a destocking phase, with demand expected to increase starting in March [1][5] - Asian and African markets are showing stable growth, with March figures indicating a year-on-year increase of over 10% in Asia and 80% in Africa [2][5] - Southeast Asia and South Asia are experiencing worsening electricity shortages, which is likely to drive demand for solar storage systems [1][2] Export Data - In March, the export value of photovoltaic modules was approximately 2.4-2.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline due to delays caused by the Spring Festival [1][6] - The transformer export total for January to March was 12.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, with large power grid transformers seeing a growth rate of 54.4% [3][10] - High-voltage switchgear exports in the same period reached 8.487 billion RMB, growing by 30% year-on-year [12] Future Outlook - Q2 is identified as a favorable investment window for the inverter and energy storage sectors, with many companies reporting good order conditions [1][8] - The export of electrical equipment is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity through March 2025, with transformers showing particularly strong performance in North America and Asia [9][14] Impact of Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have a limited impact on the profitability of electrical equipment like meters and high-voltage switches, but they affect market sentiment for export-oriented companies [15][16] - Companies with established global supply chains, such as Jinpan Technology and Igor, are less affected by U.S. tariffs due to their production facilities in Mexico and the U.S. [15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on non-U.S. export-oriented electrical equipment companies, such as Sifang Co., Ltd., Samsung Medical, and Huaming Equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trade dynamics [17] - Companies linked to IDEC, particularly in the Southeast Asian data center sector, are also recommended for investment consideration [17] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the inverter and electrical equipment markets remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by both domestic and international demand [1][2][5] - Monitoring future export data, particularly for photovoltaic components, is crucial for assessing market potential [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.458 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.06%, with net profit increasing by 31.42% to 2.049 billion yuan [8] - The company reported a strong order growth of 21.41% in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.227 billion yuan [8] - The overseas business showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 44.7% to 3.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 20.2% of total revenue [8] - Domestic business revenue grew by 20.7% to 12.34 billion yuan in 2024, with an improved gross margin [8] - The company added new orders worth 21.457 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% [8] - The company has a strong cash position with approximately 2.7 billion yuan in net cash and a debt ratio of 46.09% [8] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12.46 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.637 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 21% [3] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.578 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 26% [3] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 36.3 in 2023 to 22.0 in 2025, indicating improving valuation [3] - The company’s ROE is expected to rise from 15.9% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [3] Business Performance - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings, moving from a single business model to a comprehensive product system that includes various electrical equipment [8] - The management has demonstrated strong capabilities in navigating through industry cycles and expanding overseas markets [8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global trend of increasing investments in power grid construction [8]

Group 1 - Shanghai Shifeng Asset Management recently conducted research on three listed companies, including Xinqianglian, Tiensun Wind Power, and Siyuan Electric [1][2] - Xinqianglian is developing a green energy system through its subsidiary, Xinsaint New Energy, focusing on solar photovoltaic power generation and selling excess electricity for economic benefits [1] - Tiensun Wind Power reported a main revenue of 926 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35.6456 million yuan, down 75.98% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Siyuan Electric holds a 4.4% stake in Shanghai Luxin Electronic Technology Co., which focuses on power semiconductor design and applications [2] - Shanghai Shifeng Asset Management was established in 2015 with a paid-in capital of 10 million yuan and has received multiple awards for its stock strategy [3] - The company aims to create long-term stable compound returns for clients through its focus on secondary market stock investments [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 450 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [8] - The domestic ultra-high voltage market has seen breakthroughs, while the external market is poised for expansion with new products [8] - The overseas demand for power grid construction remains high, with exports of transformers and high-voltage switches increasing by 40% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Cost control measures are ongoing, with significant increases in inventory and contract liabilities [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.73 billion yuan, 3.54 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21x, 16x, and 12x [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 12.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.25% [1] - The projected net profit for 2023A is 1.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.75% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is expected to be 2.00 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 27.04 billion yuan by 2025E [9] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to be 11.74 billion yuan by 2025E [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in exports of electric power equipment, with specific categories such as inverters, transformers, and high-voltage switches showing positive growth trends. However, components and batteries experienced a decline in year-over-year exports [6][2][3][5]. Summary by Category Inverters - In March 2025, inverter exports amounted to $630 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% and a month-over-month increase of 39%. Notably, exports to Africa surged by 81% year-over-year [2]. Transformers - From January to March 2025, total transformer exports reached 12.5 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 40%. In March alone, exports were 4.18 billion yuan, up 27% year-over-year [3]. Electric Meters - Total electric meter exports for the first three months of 2025 were 2.55 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 9%. March exports were 770 million yuan, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year [4]. High-Voltage Switches - High-voltage switch exports totaled 8.49 billion yuan from January to March 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 30%. March exports were 3.27 billion yuan, up 50% year-over-year [5]. Components and Batteries - In March 2025, exports of components and batteries totaled $2.5 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 24%, although there was a month-over-month increase of 48% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.23 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, up 22.9% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2]. - Domestic investment in the power grid reached a historical high, with the State Grid completing fixed asset investments exceeding 90 billion RMB, a nearly 30% year-on-year increase [3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities reaching 2.84 billion RMB, a 19.91% increase from the beginning of the year, and aims for new orders of 26.8 billion RMB in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase [4]. - The company's gross margin stood at 30.3%, with a net margin of 14.4%, indicating stable profitability and effective cost control [5]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.97 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 27%, 24%, and 23% [6]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, up 22.9% [2]. Operational Analysis - Domestic power grid investment reached over 90 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a nearly 30% increase year-on-year, with the company winning contracts worth 1.05 billion RMB [3]. - Transformer exports amounted to 1.82 billion USD in Q1 2025, a 39% year-on-year increase, benefiting from strong demand in international markets [3]. Order Backlog and Targets - The company reported contract liabilities of 2.84 billion RMB, a 19.91% increase from the start of the year, with a target of 26.8 billion RMB in new orders for 2025 [4]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company maintained a gross margin of 30.3% and a net margin of 14.4%, with stable expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.97 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 18, and 14 [6].