地铁客流量之后，快递业务量也成为观测城市活力的晴雨表。 那么，2025年，谁才是中国快递第一城？先说结论：如果从快递处理量来看，广州是中国快递第一城，金华（义乌）排名第二，深圳排名 第三。 2025年，广州的快递处理量达到了218.98亿件，相当于深圳的1.82倍、上海的1.9倍、北京的2.6倍，堪称"全国最忙"的城市。 如果从快递业务收入来看，上海是中国快递第一城，广州排名第二，深圳排名第三。2025年，上海快递业务收入达到2713.3亿元，断层式 领先，比广州、深圳、北京三城的总和还多854亿元。 01 快递处理量排名： 广州第一、金华第二、深圳第三 所谓快递处理量=快递业务量+快递投递量。简言之，就是指某地区在一定时间内寄出去的快递（快递业务量）和收到的快递（快递投递 量）的总和。 近日，国家邮政局公布2025年邮政行业运行情况，揭晓了各大城市的快递业务量排名，这个排名是很权威的。 以下就是2025年中国内地快递处理量排名前50位城市： | 排名 | | 快递处理量 | 排名 | 切尔司 | 快递处理量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万件) ...

Macro Research - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to previous irrational surges, high leverage, and crowded trading conditions, which does not alter the long-term bullish trend for gold. Mid to long-term investment opportunities in gold should still be considered [2][3] Social Services Industry Research - The optimization of vacation systems, improvement in cultural tourism supply, and acceleration of local asset securitization are expected to create investment opportunities in the scenic area sector. Three main lines for investment are suggested: focus on transportation improvements, resource integration expectations, and new project launches [3][4] Cosmetics Industry Research - The cosmetics market is expected to continue steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands. It is recommended to selectively invest in high-growth companies and those with recovery potential due to product and channel changes. Specific companies to consider include 若羽臣, 倍加洁, 毛戈平, 林清轩, and 上美股份 for strong fundamentals, and 贝泰妮, 珀莱雅, and others for recovery potential [6][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The competition in the instant retail sector is intensifying, shifting from simple subsidy wars to a comprehensive competition for traffic entry and fulfillment capabilities [2][5] - Major e-commerce players are actively engaging in the instant retail space, with initiatives such as Taobao's "30 billion free order" campaign and Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing supply chain infrastructure [5][32] - The reliance on third-party logistics platforms is increasing, with SF Express being highlighted as the largest third-party instant delivery platform, showcasing superior service efficiency and coverage [5][37] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Competition - E-commerce giants are ramping up efforts in instant retail, with Taobao's initiatives driving significant increases in order volumes, particularly in beverage categories [5][27] - AI technology is being leveraged to optimize user decision-making and enhance fulfillment efficiency, with notable increases in order volumes driven by AI capabilities [27][28] Supply Chain Integration - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for $717 million aims to strengthen its supply chain capabilities in the fresh produce sector, addressing infrastructure gaps in its existing operations [5][32] - Dingdong Maicai has established a robust supply chain with over 1,000 front warehouses and a significant user base, positioning it as a key player in the market [32][33] Third-Party Delivery Platforms - The strategic value of third-party delivery platforms is becoming more pronounced, with SF Express leading the market in terms of service quality and operational scale [5][37] - SF Express is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expectations of a 33% year-on-year increase in revenue for the second half of 2025 [41][44] Transportation Trends - The report tracks spring transportation data, indicating stable growth in domestic passenger volumes despite slight fluctuations in ticket prices and capacity [48][49] - The logistics sector is experiencing a surge in express delivery volumes, particularly during the holiday season, with a year-on-year growth of 687% in express collection volumes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights concerns regarding the potential suspension of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, which has led to increased consumer anxiety and purchasing behavior. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are reacting to the news of potential delivery suspension by making last-minute purchases, with one individual stating they placed 20 orders overnight due to the announcement [2] - The fear of not receiving goods in time for the holiday has prompted consumers to buy items they were previously hesitant about [5] Group 2: Delivery Service Responses - Multiple express delivery companies have announced their service arrangements for the Spring Festival, confirming that they will continue to provide delivery services to meet holiday demand [9] - Major companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express have stated that they will not suspend operations during the holiday and have not received any notifications regarding price increases [11] - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that they operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, while JD Logistics indicated that some stations might experience scheduling changes and potential resource adjustment fees [12] - Other companies like SF Express and Debon Express also confirmed they will not suspend operations, although transportation costs may be adjusted due to various factors [12][14]

由江苏省总工会与江苏省文联联合主办的2026年"万福迎春 送万福 进万家 祝福一线劳动者"书法公益活 动启动以来，江苏13个城市积极响应，为一线劳动者传递组织温暖、送上新春祝福。 本报记者 刘金梦 摄 （来源：工人日报） 2月8日，在南京市江宁区江苏圆通速递公司举办的专场活动上，书法家们为新就业形态劳动者手 写"福"字和春联。 ...

春节临近,与筹备年货的喜悦一同到来的,是关于快递停运的广泛讨论。春节快递何时停,怎么寄,是大家关 心的话题。2月6日,"快递停运"话题冲上热搜。还有一份被广泛转发的"快递停运时间表"显示,多家快递 公司将在春节前几天陆续停止收派件。 圆通表示,春节期间国内寄递除西藏、甘肃、云南、内蒙古、吉林、广西、湖南、辽宁等部分因第三方 物流停运或天气原因无法到达的区域外,其余地区服务正常。 申通表示春节期间不打烊,会正常提供收派服务,具体安排可能根据各地网点实际情况略有调整,其间可能 根据实际情况调整运费。 韵达客服表示,春节期间全网正常营运,除部分地区(西藏、新疆、四川部分县级城市、云南、青海部分县 市)无法收寄,其他地区均正常营运。但春节期间会有省内2-3天、跨省4-5天的延时。 网传的那些"停运时间表"到底靠不靠谱?记者打听了一圈,目前没有一家快递公司明确表示会在春节期间 全面停运,"停运时间表"的信息并不准确。为了让大家过个安心年,记者梳理了2026年春节期间国内主要 快递公司和电商平台的发货政策。一句话总结:春节快递不打烊,但时效和服务费可能会有小变动。 春节期间,中国邮政继续提供寄递服务,可以通过EMS微信公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

转自：武汉发布 近日 "快递停运"冲上微博热搜 引发网友热议 不少人表示有点"焦虑" 圆通速递、申通快递、韵达快递客服均表示，春节期间快递不停，且未收到加价通知。 中国邮政速递物流客服表示，快递运送全年无休，但有可能会出现上门取件加价情况，具体规定需看后续通知。 中通快递客服称，目前暂未接到停运通知。另外，正常情况下，春节期间不会收取资源调节费。 京东物流则回应，根据春节期间快递流量情况，部分站点可能会出现排班情况，且会产生资源调度费，具体需以站点为准。 此外，顺丰速运、德邦快递客服均回复春节期间不停运，但运输费用会有调整。 同时，快递企业提醒：因节日期间资源调配受限、极端天气变化等多重因素，快件时效或将受到不同程度影响。 对此，多家快递企业 相继发布春节期间服务安排 宣布将继续提供收派服务 全力满足节日期间的寄递需求 ...