Core Viewpoint - The transportation industry has shown weak performance compared to the broader market, with heavy asset sectors like highways and railways lagging behind, while cyclical sectors such as shipping and aviation have performed better due to the implementation of anti-involution policies in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, as the emphasis on anti-involution is expected to have a long-term impact on industry performance [2] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high dividend and low debt ratio stocks will be favored in weak cyclical areas [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability due to rising single-ticket prices and a reduction in low-price competition, with major companies opting to abandon unprofitable business lines [3] - The sector is currently in the early stages of an upward cycle, with lower price competition expected to persist, favoring companies that provide differentiated services [3] - Key companies to focus on include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, which are showing improved profitability [3] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced significant performance improvements since Q2, driven by lower oil prices and effective supply management by airlines [4] - Airlines are expected to maintain a cautious approach to aircraft procurement through 2026, with improvements in passenger load factors and revenue per seat kilometer indicating a strengthening supply-demand relationship [4] - The focus should be on the three major airlines, which are expected to show greater revenue and profit elasticity compared to smaller carriers [4] Group 4: Highway Sector - The highway sector has underperformed the market due to declining bond yields and rising market risk appetite, although the sector's price-to-earnings ratio has become more attractive after recent adjustments [5] - There is a growing preference for high dividend and low debt ratio companies, as investors exhibit risk-averse behavior following the sector's adjustments [5] - Recommended stocks include Wantong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, and China Merchants Highway, with a focus on stable dividend payouts from Ninghu Expressway [5]

东兴证券近日发布交通运输行业2026年投资策略：回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交 运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资 产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内 卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为积极的影响。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 行业回顾：反内卷带动强周期板块基本面回暖 回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显 弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航 空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为 积极的影响。 2026年展望：重视反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股 我们认为与今年下半年类似的，26年行业需要重点关注的依旧是反内卷和高确定性两条主线。今年国家 层面对反内卷的重视程度明显提升，反内卷对于行业的影响大概率会长期化，并对26年相关行业的股价 走势造成重要影响。因此我们建议持续关注受益于反内卷的相关板块，包括航空 ...

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国运输设备行业市场竞争态势及发展前景研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据可知：2025年10月全国铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业出口货值为 391.1亿元，同比增长20.4%；2025年1-10月全国铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业累计出口 货值为4124亿元，累计同比增长24.2%。 2019年-2025年1-10月全国铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业出口货值统计图 上市公司：山西路桥（000755），东莞控股（000828），现代投资（000900），中铁特货（001213）， 招商公路（001965），富临运业（002357），铁龙物流（600125），赣粤高速（600269），山东高速 （600350），五洲交通（600368），宁沪高速（6003 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) was reported at 2321.90 points on December 4, down 7.9% from November 27. The VLCC market has seen transactions at major loading ports, with shipowners trying to maintain price levels despite a cooling market [3][14] - China Eastern Airlines has launched the world's longest one-way flight route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, reducing travel time by over 4 hours. Additionally, a ton-class eVTOL was included in urban firefighting drills for the first time [3][16] - In November, China's express delivery volume exceeded 180 billion items for the first time, marking a new record. The first full schedule China-Europe freight train departed from Shijiazhuang [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the Middle East route showing a 9.76% drop. The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have also seen declines of 0.3%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [14][15] - The launch of the longest flight route by China Eastern Airlines connects Shanghai to Buenos Aires, significantly shortening travel time [16][17] - The express delivery volume in China reached a record high of 180 billion items in November, reflecting strong economic vitality [24][26] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5721.00 points, up 2.4% year-on-year [28] - Domestic freight flight numbers decreased by 2.03% year-on-year in November, while international flights increased by 14.88% [30] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1397.63 points, down 0.39% week-on-week and down 38.06% year-on-year [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by hydropower station construction in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5] - Opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others in the shipping sector [6][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in shipping rates, particularly for VLCCs, which have seen a rise in one-year charter rates to $58,000 per day. It suggests that investors should capitalize on seasonal fluctuations in freight rates [6][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the road freight sector, which has shown a significant increase of 6.90% in the latest week, outperforming other sub-sectors [7][8]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a golden era due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, with recommendations for several airlines including China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [6][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - VLCC average rates reached $115,290 per day, despite a 6% week-on-week decline. The market remains tight, with expectations of increased cargo volumes leading to potential rate increases [6][4]. - The report notes a 2% increase in second-hand bulk carrier prices and a slight uptick in new ship prices, indicating a potential turning point in the market [6][4]. Road Freight - The road freight sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase in freight volume of 0.74% week-on-week, indicating steady growth [7][8]. - The report identifies Dragon Boat Holdings as a standout performer in the road freight sector, with a significant weekly gain of 40.2% [13]. Aviation - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to increased international travel and a historical high in passenger load factors [6][4]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific, which are expected to benefit from these trends [6][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations of price stabilization and profit recovery. Companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players [6][4]. Rail and Highway - Rail freight and highway truck traffic are projected to maintain steady growth, with the report noting a slight decrease in highway truck traffic of 0.24% week-on-week [6][4]. - The report suggests that high-dividend investment strategies in the highway sector remain attractive [6][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in shipping and logistics sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery and growth potential in the shipping market, with specific attention to the rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates and the overall shipping market dynamics [6]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others, while also suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector [6][22]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC one-year charter rates have increased to $58,000 per day, indicating a strong market demand [6]. - The report notes a 6% week-on-week decline in VLCC rates, averaging $115,290 per day, but anticipates potential increases in the coming weeks due to expected cargo volume growth [6]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 6.5% to 2,727 points, with Capesize rates reaching a two-year high [6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant opportunity for airlines due to the aging aircraft fleet and increasing passenger demand, predicting a "golden era" for the airline industry [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage operational efficiencies and rising demand [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [6]. - Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]. Road and Rail Transportation - The report indicates resilience in railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with a slight increase in railway cargo to 82.12 million tons, up 0.74% week-on-week [6]. - The highway sector is expected to benefit from high dividend yields and potential market value management catalysts [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong high dividend index has a dividend yield of 5.63%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.96% from 10-year Chinese and U.S. government bonds, indicating strong investment value[11] - The Hong Kong dividend sector is approximately 5-6% cheaper than the overall A-share market after considering a 20% dividend tax[12] - From October 2 to December 1, the high dividend index outperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central Enterprise Dividend Index rising by 7.62%[3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The banking sector is expected to enter a stable profit cycle, with a potential reversal of the downward trend in interest margins by 2026[4] - In the transportation sector, the road freight volume growth improved quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with key companies like Sichuan Chengyu H, Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo, and Ninghu Expressway showing promise[3] - Coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are projected to have dividend yields of 4.7% and 4.44%, respectively, with Yancoal Australia potentially improving its yield to 7.65%[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The utility sector is benefiting from cost reductions and expected capacity price increases in 2026, with Huaneng International Power and China Resources Power forecasted to have dividend yields of 6.65% and 5.73%[4] - Real estate companies such as Hang Lung Properties, Swire Properties, and Kerry Properties are projected to yield 7.20%, 5.99%, and 6.53%, respectively, due to the recovery of the Hong Kong economy[4] - Environmental companies like China Everbright Water are expected to have a dividend yield of 8.14%, highlighting opportunities in the sector[4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Transportation Sector**: Focus on supply-demand improvement and growth stocks for 2026, with a historical high in airline passenger load factor in 2025 but a decline in ticket prices due to weak demand and competition among airlines [1][6] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: Expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, long-distance crude oil exports, and geopolitical factors, leading to an anticipated rise in freight rates [1][4] - **Express Delivery Industry**: Slowing internal growth with price pressures and competition from instant delivery services, with a projected price decline of around 2% in 2026 [1][22] Core Insights and Arguments - **Airline Industry**: - Supply growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 due to fewer aircraft introductions and high utilization rates. Demand growth is projected at 5.3%, slightly above GDP growth, driven by business recovery and increased inbound tourism [2][6] - Airlines are expected to focus on ticket pricing management due to historical high load factors, with significant profit elasticity anticipated [2][6] - **Oil Market**: - Global crude oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, primarily from the U.S. and Brazil, leading to a decline in oil prices [1][10][11] - Geopolitical factors will add marginal volatility, with freight rates expected to stabilize around $50,000 to $60,000 [12][13] - **Port and Shipping Industry**: - The port sector is experiencing low single-digit growth in export volumes, with a recovery in import bulk cargo throughput expected in 2026 [3][15] - The shipping sector is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for a second wave of price increases post-Spring Festival [1][8] - **Express Delivery Companies**: - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, SF Express, and Jitu Express, focusing on cost optimization through automation and potential growth in Southeast Asia [1][24] Additional Important Insights - **Railway Logistics**: - Container penetration in the railway logistics sector is expected to increase significantly, with recommendations for leading companies in this niche [3][20] - **Airport Sector**: - A neutral outlook due to slow recovery in non-aeronautical revenue streams, with a need for more effective monetization strategies [3][7] - **Market Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to hold current positions or increase holdings during seasonal lows in December and January, particularly in the oil shipping sector [13] - **Growth Stocks**: - Focus on industry leaders with attractive valuations, companies in expanding niches, and high-dividend stocks for stable returns [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the transportation sector's outlook for 2026, including specific recommendations and insights into various sub-sectors.

Group 1 - The company,招商公路, announced that it will disclose the number of shareholders in its periodic reports [2]