"这意味着市场应该做好准备，迎接一个既更加难以预测，但同时又更加正统的美联储。" 美债市场正在密切关注将于当地时间周三（2月4日）公布的季度再融资拍卖计划声明。 市场预计财政部短期内仍将维持发债政策稳定，但在财政赤字压力、全球超长期债券需求减弱以及政府政策目标变化的背景下，任何细微措辞调整都可能成 为债市波动的重要触发点。 同时，市场也关注美联储在美债市场中的角色。美联储此前通过购买短期美国国债再次扩大其资产负债表，以缓解隔夜拆解市场压力。而最新被美国总统特 朗普任命为美联储主席继任者的沃什（Kevin Warsh）又主张缩表。美债市场仍在试图对沃什的任命进行计价。 美债投资者目前仍普遍预计，美国财政部将在周三的关键声明中避免对债务发行计划做出任何重大调整。不过，鉴于特朗普政府近期在金融领域采取了一系 列更具进攻性的政策操作，市场仍高度警惕财政部是否会意外出手，以压低长期收益率。 具体而言，市场预计下周的季度再融资拍卖预计规模为1250亿美元，与2024年5月以来的规模持平，具体包括：2月10日，拍卖580亿美元3年期国债；2月11 日，拍卖420亿美元10年期国债；2月12日，拍卖250亿美元30年期国债。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The notion of "selling off America" is prevalent in Europe, but data from the ETF market indicates that a complete exit from U.S. assets is challenging. While there is a noticeable decline in inflows into U.S.-focused equity ETFs, investors are not fully divesting from U.S. assets but rather increasing their global ETF investments, with U.S. assets still holding a significant weight of 65%-70% in these ETFs [2][5]. Group 1 - The inflow of funds into U.S.-focused equity ETFs has significantly slowed, accounting for only about 10% of total inflows, marking one of the lowest levels in recent years [5]. - Approximately 40% of funds have flowed into global equity ETFs, which still maintain an average allocation of 65%-70% to U.S. stocks, indicating that investors are not entirely shifting away from U.S. equities [5][7]. - The European ETF market has a substantial exposure to U.S. assets, with nearly $1 trillion in assets directly linked to the U.S., making a complete exit difficult [7]. Group 2 - U.S. issuers dominate the European ETF market, controlling about 63% of the total ETF assets, which surpasses the total of European issuers, highlighting the deep involvement of U.S. asset management firms in European investment infrastructure [7]. - If funds were to genuinely withdraw from U.S. assets, European issuers like Amundi, DWS, UBS, and BNP Paribas would theoretically benefit, as their products have a higher allocation to local and regional markets. However, U.S. issuers continue to lead in the issuance of global and U.S. equity ETFs in Europe [7][8].

周二(2月3日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格开始修复，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4814.42美元/盎司，上涨 3.33%，最高触及4855.15美元/盎司，最低下探4664.74美元/盎司。基本面上美联储主席人选偏向鹰派、 美元走强预期升温，以及交易所提高保证金要求，共同对黄金形成压制，且地缘局势缓和，不利金价走 强。 另外，机构的观点并未转向悲观。德意志银行分析师明确表示，"当前环境尚未形成金价持续反转的条 件"，并指出投资者"仍高度看好上行空间"。法国巴黎银行更是将年底金价预测上调，认为达到每盎司 6000美元是"保守估计"。这些观点核心在于，驱动本轮黄金牛市的基本面——全球地缘政治不确定性、 对法定货币信用的长期担忧、央行持续购金以及潜在的全球宏观经济风险——均未发生根本性逆转。 与此同时，由于政府部分部门处于停摆状态，美国劳工统计局将不会像原计划那样在周五发布一月份的 就业报告。美国劳工统计局副局长Emily Liddel在一份声明中表示："一旦政府拨款恢复，发布计划将重 新安排。由于联邦政府部分停摆，劳工统计局将暂停数据的收集、处理和发布工作。"此外，原定于周 二发布的"12月职位空缺与劳动力流动情况调查" ...

市场各方对"新契约"与沃什缩表主张的分歧显著，中立呈现多元博弈态势。乐观派以摩根大通首席执行 官杰米·戴蒙为代表，公开为沃什背书，认为其政策主张能带来货币政策确定性，"降息与缩表并行"的 组合可兼顾通胀与经济增长，而"新契约"的签订能厘清美联储与财政部的权责，维护央行独立性，为市 场稳定奠定基础。部分机构认为，若缩表节奏温和，可逐步化解流动性压力，实现政策平稳过渡。 随着凯文·沃什被提名出任下一届美联储主席，市场目光聚焦于美联储与美国财政部的关系重构，"新契 约"的猜测持续升温。沃什在公开表态中明确主张重新定义双方关系，推动签订新的财政部-美联储协 议，同时力主加快缩表进程，以回归美联储核心职责、控制通胀。但这一构想与激进的缩表主张，正面 临当前市场流动性现实的严峻考验，美国国债高企、金融市场对流动性敏感等问题，成为阻碍"新契 约"落地与缩表推进的最大绊脚石，市场多空博弈持续升温。 谨慎派则发出明确警示，法国巴黎银行经济学家指出，若沃什坚持激进缩表，可能导致通胀预期上升， 长期利率不降反升，对财政部和市场形成双重打击。PGIM固定收益公司相关人士表示，若美联储拒绝 通过扩表压低收益率，财政部将被迫承担更多市场 ...

Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of approximately 4403 before rebounding to over 4812, indicating a volatile trading session [1] - The support zone identified between 4410-4400 was validated, allowing for profitable long positions to be established [2] - The 60-day moving average at the 4410-4400 range served as a significant technical support level, reinforcing the decision to enter long positions [3] Fundamental Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity [6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for gold futures exacerbated selling pressure, leading to a cycle of forced liquidations [6] - A strengthening U.S. dollar and heightened market volatility contributed to reduced demand for gold, as it became more expensive for holders of other currencies [7] Market Sentiment - Despite the short-term drop in gold prices, there are still indicators supporting a bullish market, such as the quick rebound after the decline and continued positive outlooks from major financial institutions [8] - The market structure is adjusting, with the exit of high-leverage speculative traders potentially setting a healthier foundation for future price increases [9] Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The actual policy stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve chair will be crucial in determining gold's trajectory, particularly regarding interest rates and liquidity [9] - The resilience of macroeconomic data, especially in light of uncertainties surrounding trade policies and government shutdowns, will impact gold's appeal as a safe haven [9] - Market confidence and the flow of funds into gold ETFs will be critical in assessing whether the current volatility is a short-term phenomenon or indicative of a longer-term trend [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to purchase $40 billion of T-bills monthly until April may provide the Treasury with the opportunity to increase its issuance of these securities, reducing the need for private-sector sales [1] Group 1: Treasury Issuance Strategy - The Treasury is expected to maintain its auction sizes for the upcoming quarter, but there is speculation about potentially lowering coupon sizes due to high demand for bills [2] - Diminished global demand for long-term bonds has led other countries to reduce their issuance, raising questions about whether the US will follow suit [3] - The Treasury is anticipated to increase auctions of securities beyond short-term bills due to federal budget deficits, with discussions ongoing about the timing and scale of such increases [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The upcoming quarterly refunding auctions are projected at $125 billion, remaining unchanged since May 2024, indicating a stable issuance strategy [6] - Market participants expect no major shifts in the Treasury's debt-issuance plans, despite the Trump administration's financial maneuvers that may influence investor sentiment [6] - There is speculation about a potential shift in the Treasury's debt management strategy to align with the administration's goals of lowering long-term yields [9] Group 3: TIPS and Other Securities - The Treasury may consider increasing the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in response to market demand, with predictions of at least one TIPS auction being increased [14] - The Treasury's share of TIPS in the overall debt market is declining, but there may be enough demand to justify one more increase in TIPS issuance [16]

据Wind数据统计，截至1月31日，共有3057家上市公司披露业绩预告。预喜的上市公司共有1638家，占比53.6%；预盈 的上市公司共有1518家。分行业看，有色金属、非银金融等行业紧抓周期性机会业绩优异，硬件设备、半导体、汽车 与零配件等新动能产业表现亮眼，以钢铁为代表的传统产业利润结构持续优化。 彭博社近日发文称，根据法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas SA)的一项年度调查，有14%的投资者计划在2026年向中国基金注 入更多资金；越来越多的全球投资者计划向专注于中国的对冲基金增加投资，与三年前的撤资潮形成了鲜明对比。 与此同时，2月券商金股名单也陆续出炉，主要集中在电子、机械设备、有色金属等行业。个股方面，海光信息、腾 讯控股、中国太保、紫金矿业的人气最高。展望2月，券商普遍认为，春季行情趋势仍将延续，科技成长、顺周期板 块受到青睐。 BNP全球资本引入伦敦负责人Marlin Naidoo在接受采访时表示："中国市场的转折点故事确实从去年开始出现，而且今 年似乎还会更加强烈。" 部分基金经理认为，当前半导体行业仍处于本轮景气度的上行加速期，在结构性供需失衡的背景下，算力、存储、光 模块与全球半导体设 ...

"越来越多的人发现，南京不是一座普通的城市。"法国巴黎银行中国副董事长魏海诺难掩兴奋——外界 对南京的认可就是对法巴银行选择南京的肯定。 布局中国，南京分量凸显。在南京设区域总部、职能中心以及研发中心成为很多跨国公司深耕中国新趋 势。 "十五五"开局之年首月，南京不断出牌。以对外开放和国际交往倒逼高质量发展成为"南京方案"关键主 线。 1月28日，南京市市长率各区区长和多个职能部门在沪召开"智汇南京 共筑全球投资合作新生态"重点企 业新春座谈会。一批知名跨国企业总裁级别高管热情表态深耕中国，加码南京。南京的回应可浓缩为三 个词：自信、真诚、务实。 城市和企业的互动共同释放强烈信号，投资和发展的逻辑已从追求规模转向构筑生态，聚焦创新。新格 局新气象，南京进入城运勃发黄金时代。 南京王牌释放磁石效应 《毕马威2025年跨国企业中国展望》显示，94%的受访企业仍继续投资和押注中国市场，这在南京的这 场跨城座谈中得到充分彰显。 "结合德国技术的深度，利用中国的创新速度，拓展我们全球市场的广度。"马勒投资中国区总裁沈梁玉 介绍，面向"十五五"，马勒倚重南京成为链接全球创新的重要节点，原因在于南京手握三张王牌。第一 是产 ...

Group 1 - The Chief Investment Officer of Asset Management One, Shigeki Muramatsu, indicated that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in April, the yen could strengthen to 150 yen per dollar [1] - Asset Management One manages approximately $512 billion in assets and is inclined to purchase ultra-long Japanese government bonds due to their relatively high yields compared to Japan's growth prospects [1] - Concerns about the slow pace of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan have led to a weaker yen, although Muramatsu believes the situation is not as dire as perceived [1] Group 2 - The weak yen is expected to be a significant factor necessitating interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the government, with a 69% probability of a rate increase before April, up from 40% at the end of last year [2] - Muramatsu noted that the coordination between the U.S. and Japan increases the likelihood of an earlier rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially with U.S. Treasury Secretary urging Japan to allow further rate increases [2] - A drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate below 150 could pressure the Japanese stock market, but Asset Management One remains optimistic about long-term investments in risk assets by Japanese households [2] Group 3 - Following the Bank of Japan's January policy meeting, institutions like BNP Paribas and SMBC Nikko Securities have brought forward their expectations for the next policy adjustment to April [3] - The minutes from the January meeting indicated an increasing recognition among decision-makers of the necessity for timely interest rate hikes due to the impact of a weak yen on inflation [3] - Muramatsu highlighted the attractiveness of 30-year Japanese government bonds, which stabilized at around 3.64% after a previous surge, despite concerns over fiscal sustainability due to proposed tax cuts [3]

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行1月政策会议的会议纪要显示，在当局密切关注日元疲软对通胀的影响之 际，决策层对及时加息必要性的认识正在增强。根据会议纪要，日本央行九名政策委员会成员之一表 示："鉴于应对物价上涨是日本的当务之急，央行不应在评估上调政策利率影响方面耗费过多时间，而 应把握适当时机，推进下一步行动——加息。" 这份会议纪要暗示，日本央行行长植田和男领导的政策委员会可能以快于市场共识的节奏上调基准利 率。市场普遍预期，自去年12月上一次行动之后，日本央行大约每六个月才会加息一次。日元显然是一 个关键因素——与上一次政策会议纪要相比，本次会议纪要中提及"日元疲软"和"外汇"的次数翻了一 倍。 一名委员表示："日元贬值以及长期收益率上升在很大程度上反映了通胀预期等基本面因素。在这种情 况下，从货币政策角度来看，唯一的处方就是以及时且适当的方式上调政策利率。" 在1月政策会议上，日本央行释放出偏鹰派的信号，对通胀前景的上调幅度超过经济学家的预期，同时 还出现了一个出人意料的、主张连续第二次加息的反对票。在会后的新闻发布会上，植田和男指出，有 必要更加仔细地审视日元贬值对潜在通胀的影响。 一名委员表示："如果日 ...