证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-10 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20260208：1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险——海外 宏观与交易复盘 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大宗 商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流动性冲 击更多来自交易层面，而海外宏观基本面和广义流动性环境并未有显著 变化，这意味着部分资产存在被流动性冲击"错杀"的可能。关注下周公 布的 1 月美国非农就业和 CPI 数据，我们预期二者均存在上行风险，令 本周略有升温的美联储降息预期再度面临回调。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208：预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社 融小幅同比多增 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 [Table_Tag] 节前经济供需两端基本符合季节性特征 ...

Group 1: Financing Optimization - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, highlighting a policy direction that favors high-quality and technology-driven companies [1] - The optimization is expected to shorten the refinancing cycle for quality listed companies, allowing them to seize market opportunities and enhance their competitiveness [1] - Enhanced supervision throughout the refinancing process aims to create a healthy market ecosystem, encouraging companies to focus on core businesses and improve profitability [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting to discuss automotive consumption, planning to implement policies to support the automotive industry, including a vehicle trade-in program by 2026 [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities noted that while the automotive sector is currently in a weak seasonal performance, there are signs of improving market sentiment and potential for growth in commercial vehicles [2] - A list of undervalued automotive stocks with significant profit growth forecasts was compiled, identifying three stocks with projected net profit increases of over 100% [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has been reducing its stakes in several semiconductor companies, which is viewed as a normal investment exit rather than a shift in strategy [7] - The fund's actions have raised market attention, but industry insiders believe the long-term goal of supporting domestic semiconductor growth remains unchanged [7] Group 4: Technology Sector Investments - Major tech companies, including Microsoft and Amazon, are projected to invest over $600 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, primarily in AI infrastructure [4] - NVIDIA's CEO expressed confidence in the sustainability of this investment trend, citing strong future demand for AI infrastructure [4] Group 5: Tax Policies for E-commerce - The Ministry of Finance announced tax exemptions for goods returned due to unsold inventory in cross-border e-commerce, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [6] Group 6: Labor Rights and Regulations - Several government departments are conducting administrative guidance for major platform and delivery companies to ensure the protection of labor rights for new employment forms [8][9] - Companies are required to improve labor management practices to safeguard the rights of workers in the gig economy [9]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月9日，福田汽车在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司近几年由于未分配利润为 负，不具备分红条件，详见临2025-028号公告。后续随着公司业绩增长，在达到分红条件时，公司将按 《公司章程》等相关规定并结合公司实际情况进行分红。 ...

中国经济网2月9日讯(记者 姜智文)2月6日，北汽集团与北京绿色交易所携手举办"低碳共筑 绿色新 程"极狐用户碳护照发布仪式，一场汇聚企业力量、行业资源与用户参与的绿色行动正式启幕。 "双碳背景下，绿色消费与碳普惠机制成为汽车行业的重要课题，"北京绿色交易所董事长王乃祥表 示，绿色消费碳减行为，可以通过科学方法形成可交易的碳减排量，进而构建从绿色产品供应商到个 人、再到碳市场消纳端的减排量流动路线。极狐碳护照作为搭建绿色消费行为和碳普惠平台的桥梁，未 来将成为新能源车主获得碳市场激励的重要途径。 活动现场，北京绿色交易所向北汽新能源颁发企业碳减排荣誉证书，同时为10位北汽极狐用户代表 颁发首批个人"碳护照"，标志着汽车行业在用户碳普惠领域的创新突破，让普通车主的每一次出行都成 为可量化、有温度的减碳实践。 北汽集团董事长张建勇表示，北汽集团主动融入国家绿色低碳转型大局，以推动高质量发展为核 心，将"低碳化"纳入集团"一主五化"核心战略，并以此为导向，成功实现了碳排放总量与强度的连续降 低。北汽积极推动绿色出行社会共建，联合北京绿色交易所，创新打造北汽极狐用户专属"碳护照"，同 步围绕用户碳普惠持续构建碳护照权 ...

同时响应"乐购新春"特别活动，车企纷纷推出"0首付""0利息"等各种促销活动引流揽客。 一手促消费，一手抓保障。"十五五"第一个春节，汽车行业攒足士气，赚了人气，为"全年红"博得好彩 头。 海外市场同样频传捷报，比亚迪1月出口增长5成，北汽增长16％；在新年新规下，二手车"出海"迈向价 值提升新阶段。 中国汽车报从第3970期开始，"2026新春走基层"专题报道将以最前沿的视角，记录汽车行业全力备战春 节档。 2026年，多家车企迎来"开门红"，1月市场数据表现亮眼。为延续好势头，抢抓春节增换购需求， 后勤保障方面，相关企业更是毫不松懈，上汽、长安等以贴心服务温暖车主回家路；京东物流、德邦等 企业调足运力，宣布"不打烊"…… ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's support for the rural modernization and consumption upgrade through the promotion of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials as key components for rural revitalization [5]. Economic Policy - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 explicitly supports the introduction of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials into rural areas as part of consumption upgrades [5]. - The National Energy Administration plans to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027 to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [6][7]. Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the commercial vehicle market saw a total sales volume of 33,035 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.0%, with significant contributions from new energy vehicles and exports [9]. - Major companies like Dongfeng, SAIC, and Beiqi achieved double-digit growth, while Yutong Bus experienced a decline of 32.24% [9]. Product Launches - SAIC Maxus announced its 2026 new vehicle plan, which includes multiple models such as the T60 tool pickup and L4 autonomous vehicles, focusing on the commercial market and new energy technologies [15]. - CATL is expanding its capacity and forming strategic partnerships to create a zero-carbon industrial ecosystem, including projects in Yunnan and Quanzhou [16][17]. Personnel Changes - The article notes significant personnel changes in major commercial vehicle companies, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to the industry's transition to new energy and global competition [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a significant shift with new energy vehicle brands showing varied sales performance, highlighting the advantages of brand recognition [1][22] - Over twenty provinces and cities in China have introduced subsidy policies to stabilize the automotive market amid downward pressure [2][26] - Internationally, Canada is opening up to cooperation with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, indicating a trend towards collaborative ventures in the automotive sector [3][42] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In January 2026, several new energy vehicle brands reported their delivery volumes, with significant year-on-year growth for some, such as Hongmeng Zhixing, which delivered 57,915 vehicles, a 65.6% increase [1][20] - The overall market is characterized by a "year-on-year increase, month-on-month decrease" trend, with many companies launching attractive financing options to stimulate demand [22][23] Policy Developments - The Chinese government has rolled out various consumer incentives, including trade-in and purchase subsidies, to support automotive consumption [2][26] - The Canadian government is set to announce new fuel efficiency standards and reintroduce purchase subsidies for electric vehicles, reflecting a shift in policy towards supporting the automotive industry [3][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and systematic capabilities, as they are likely to present long-term investment opportunities [4] - The anticipated positive impact of government policies on the automotive market is highlighted, along with the potential for Chinese automotive companies to expand internationally [4]

格隆汇2月9日丨福田汽车(600166.SH)在互动平台表示，2018年4月，公司自动驾驶轻卡车型获得的国内 首张商用车自动驾驶路试牌照，一次性通过重庆自动驾驶道路测试的全部6个项目，并在重庆智能网联 示范区公开道路进行了自动驾驶道路测试。2023 年12 月，公司获得国内首张商用车有条件自动驾驶高 速公路道路测试牌照，已于北京市高级别自动驾驶示范区规定的道路区域内开展重卡自动驾驶常态化测 试，目前已顺利完成各项测试及示范任务。2024年5月，公司的L4级氢燃料自动驾驶重卡率先应用于京 津塘高速自动驾驶示范场景，在京津塘高速围绕实际物流需求，实现了高速干线点对点自动驾驶。2025 年，基于城市微循环场景，公司自主研发的L4级无人小巴获批北京市高级别自动驾驶示范区公交测试 牌照，目前正在亦庄公开道路开展实际测试。作为商用车行业引领者，公司基于商用车多场景物流需 求，全面布局智能化战略，为行业提供绿色、智慧的物流解决方案，促进产业智能化转型升级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luxury brands are facing unprecedented transformation challenges, including intensified price competition, pressure for electrification, and a restructured joint venture model. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has proposed its own strategies to navigate these challenges and maintain brand value while exploring sustainable development paths [1]. Group 1: Market Positioning and Strategy - JLR is focusing on the high-end market amidst a homogenized price competition in the luxury car sector, aiming to leverage its clear brand positioning and product advantages for steady growth [2]. - JLR has maintained a leading position in the domestic luxury SUV market priced above 700,000 yuan, with the Range Rover brand achieving a market share of 38% in the luxury SUV segment priced above 1.5 million yuan, marking three consecutive years as the sales champion [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive local presence in China over 16 years, contributing approximately 22% to the UK's total exports to China, highlighting the critical role of the Chinese market in its global strategy [2]. Group 2: Brand Value and Customer Experience - JLR is committed to enhancing its core brand value by focusing on high-end product quality and avoiding low-end price competition, which has led to its recognition as the champion among luxury brands in six key areas of J.D. Power's 2025 research [3]. - The company emphasizes the importance of long-term value and resilience in uncertain environments, as articulated by its executives [4]. Group 3: Local Innovation and Collaboration - JLR is deepening its commitment to the Chinese market with a strategy of "more China in China," which includes high-level interactions to reinforce its dedication to local growth [4]. - The collaboration with its joint venture partner, Chery Automobile, is progressing with the development of the "Freelander" model, set to launch in 2026 to meet the diverse high-end demands of the Chinese new energy market [4]. Group 4: Technological Advancement through Motorsport - JLR leverages its motorsport heritage to build a technological moat, with participation in events like the Dakar Rally and Formula E driving technical advancements and product upgrades [6][7]. - The Dakar Rally serves as a rigorous testing ground for vehicle durability and performance, while the Formula E involvement reflects JLR's long-term commitment to electric vehicle technology development [7]. - The success of the Jaguar TCS team in Formula E, including record-breaking achievements, underscores the brand's competitive edge in electric vehicle technology [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - JLR's development path in 2025 serves as a valuable reference for other joint venture luxury brands, emphasizing resilience, value preservation, and deep market integration [8]. - The company aims to continue its local innovation and strategic clarity to drive long-term value in the evolving landscape of luxury automotive brands [8].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between BAIC Group and Beijing Green Exchange to launch the "Carbon Passport" for users of the Arcfox brand represents a significant step towards promoting low-carbon travel and integrating carbon reduction into everyday driving practices [1][3]. Group 1: Carbon Passport Initiative - The Arcfox Carbon Passport quantifies each user's travel as a meaningful carbon reduction action, facilitating their participation in the "dual carbon" initiative [3][4]. - The Carbon Passport is based on a unique carbon reduction accounting model, which is the first of its kind in the industry, contributing to China's carbon benefit mechanism [3][4]. - The initiative aims to create a carbon benefit rights system for users, encouraging them to engage in green travel collectively [3][4]. Group 2: Corporate Commitment to Sustainability - BAIC Group is committed to integrating low-carbon strategies into its core development framework, achieving continuous reductions in total carbon emissions and intensity [3][5]. - The company has launched the "BLUE Health Plan" to promote a responsible and perceptible green lifestyle, emphasizing the importance of user engagement in achieving carbon reduction goals [4][5]. - BAIC's efforts have led to recognition as a "five-star enterprise" in carbon management by 2025, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices across the entire value chain [5]. Group 3: User Engagement and Community Building - The Carbon Passport encourages users to adopt energy-saving driving habits, with a reported cumulative carbon reduction of over 450,000 tons by 2025, equivalent to planting over 25 million tamarisk trees [7]. - The initiative includes social features that allow users to participate in challenges and earn rewards, fostering a community of environmentally conscious individuals [7][10]. - The collaboration with environmental advocates highlights the brand's commitment to social responsibility and community engagement in ecological preservation [8][10]. Group 4: Future Vision - BAIC Group envisions a collaborative approach where enterprises lead, users participate, and society benefits, aligning with national dual carbon strategies and new development concepts [10]. - The company aims to build a sustainable future through partnerships with users and stakeholders, reinforcing its role as a responsible corporate citizen [10].