↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government supports TikTok's business negotiations and seeks a fair operating environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced new measures for drug procurement, including optimizing price control mechanisms to prevent abnormal low pricing [3] - Domestic private equity firms have increased their average positions to 78.04%, the highest level this year, with a significant rise in firms holding over 80% [4] Group 2 - The World Manufacturing Conference in Hefei, China, resulted in 735 cooperation projects with an investment amount of 380.2 billion yuan [5] - A new 500 kV fully autonomous substation has been launched in Liaoning, enhancing the safety and capacity of the local power grid [5] - Major express delivery companies in Shanghai announced price increases starting September 22, addressing issues of unhealthy competition [5] Group 3 - KPMG reported that fossil fuels still dominate the global energy structure, accounting for 87%, while renewable energy is the fastest-growing sector [6] - A gold mine discovery in Jiangsu has revealed industrial-grade gold deposits, potentially adding over 5 tons of gold resources [6] - BitGo, a cryptocurrency custody startup, reported a revenue of $4.19 billion and a profit of $12.6 million for the first half of the year [7] Group 4 - Apple has requested its major supplier, Luxshare Precision, to increase the daily production of the iPhone 17 standard version by approximately 40% [8] - Huawei has launched the "Tian Gong Plan," committing 1 billion yuan to support the HarmonyOS AI ecosystem [8] - Xiaomi has introduced a "10-year free repair" service for its air conditioners, prompting a competitive response from rival Gree [9] Group 5 - The U.S. Congress is facing a deadlock over short-term spending bills, risking a government shutdown [10] - President Trump has signed an executive order reforming the H-1B visa program, imposing a $100,000 fee for applicants [10] - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. fell by 22% in August, significantly impacting its gold exports [11] Group 6 - A global bull market is emerging in stocks and credit bonds, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs [12] - Novartis is considering a price reduction proposal to be presented to President Trump by the end of the month [12] - Country Garden plans to restructure nine public market bonds, offering options including cash buybacks [13]

Domestic News - The "East Data West Computing" project has led to over 1 trillion yuan in social investment, forming 8 hub nodes and 10 data center clusters, covering 14 provinces and providing approximately 80% of the intelligent computing power for the nation, promoting the development of AI, smart manufacturing, and telemedicine [1] - In the first eight months of this year, Chongqing's automobile production reached 1.659 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with new energy vehicle production at 690,000 units, up over 31% [2] - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement allows medical institutions to report quantities either by generic name or specific brand, optimizing the procurement process [2] - Jiangsu Province's industrial added value increased by 6.8% year-on-year from January to August, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the growth [3] International News - The European Central Bank's council member suggested that a rate cut in December would be beneficial for achieving inflation targets and economic development [5] - Tesla has received approval to test autonomous vehicles equipped with safety monitors in Arizona, marking a significant step in expanding its autonomous taxi business [5] - The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization awarded the "Al-Fozan Prize" to a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Sciences for contributions to marine climate change, highlighting the importance of scientific evidence in assessing climate risks [4]

近日，长沙市自然资源和规划局发布了 "体育新城北片控规 G04-C28 地块规划修改" 的批前公示。 | | 批前公示详细信息表 | | --- | --- | | 项目名称 | 体育新城北片控规G04-C28地块规划修改 | | 公示时间 | 起始 2025-09-19 到 2025-10-18 | | 所属辖区 | 雨花区 | 目前查询结果显示，湖南江右仅剩下两个股东，其中湖南省中欣房地产开发集团有限公司持股 80%， 湖南森茂置业有限公司持股 20%，湖南碧桂园和长沙卓烁均已从公司退出。 该地块坐落于雨花区体育新城板块，处于长沙大道与京港澳高速的交汇处，与嘉宇盛世华章小区相邻， 并且距离地铁 2 号线长沙大道站的直线距离仅为 350 米，地理位置十分优越。 据悉，此地块正是长沙中欣时代广场项目所在地。 从原先的效果图来看，该项目规划包含 A 座（公寓式酒店及办公）、B 座（办公）以及商业裙楼，其 中两座商业建筑的高度分别达到了 220 米和 203 米。 中欣时代广场项目地上建筑面积约 17 万平方米，在调整为商住用地后，按照商住比例推算，该项目将 新增约 7.3 万平方米的住宅面积。 长沙中欣时代广场 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Country Garden (碧桂园) plans to restructure nine public market bonds, adjusting the repayment arrangements for principal and interest, and offering various options for bondholders [2] - As of the end of June, the total outstanding balance of the nine bonds is 13.85828 billion yuan, including several specific bond series [2] - The proposed adjustments extend the principal repayment deadline to September 2, 2035, with a structured repayment plan starting from September 2, 2031, involving gradual payments over nine periods [2] Group 2 - Bondholders accepting the adjusted repayment arrangements must also agree to changes in credit enhancement measures, including the removal of certain guarantees and the non-consideration of asset value fluctuations due to market or policy reasons as defaults [3] - Country Garden offers three additional restructuring options for bondholders, including a cash buyback option, a stock-for-debt option, and a conversion to general debt [4] - The cash buyback option allows for a maximum of 450 million yuan to be used for repurchasing bonds at 12% of their face value, with different allocation ratios for various bonds [4] Group 3 - The stock-for-debt option involves issuing up to 1.46 billion new shares at a price of 2.6 HKD per share, with bondholders waiving all interest accrued on the relevant bonds [5][6] - The newly issued shares can be sold within 24 months, with any unsold shares being forcibly sold in the 25th month [6] - The general debt conversion option allows bondholders to convert their bond holdings into non-bond general debt, with a repayment date extended to 2033 and an interest rate of 1% per year [6]

Group 1 - DeepSeek's R1 model is the first major language model to be published in a peer-reviewed version in the journal Nature, addressing initial criticisms and providing detailed training information [2] - A new type of hydrogen negative ion prototype battery has been developed by a team from the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, which has significant scientific and application potential [3] - BMW is restructuring its product development strategy to include both fuel engines and electric vehicles, responding to the slowing transition to electrification [4] Group 2 - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China have surpassed 40 million, maintaining the world's leading position for ten consecutive years [5] - The number of high-tech enterprises in China has exceeded 500,000, marking an increase of 83% since 2020 [6] - Predictions indicate that by August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the automotive market will reach 30% [8] Group 3 - Silicon-based Flow has launched an enterprise-level MaaS platform, providing a comprehensive solution for model training and deployment [9] - Keling AI has introduced a new digital human feature that can generate a 1-minute video from a character image and audio [10] - Xiaohongshu has announced its largest-ever recruitment drive for 2026, with a significant increase in demand for technical positions [11] Group 4 - Huawei has released the industry's first anti-spy AP, achieving a 99% success rate in detecting hidden cameras in hotels [12] - JD.com has received approval from German regulators for its acquisition of CECONOMY, with no competition concerns raised [12] - Hyundai has revised its 2025 operating profit margin target down to 6-7% due to U.S. tariff policies [13] Group 5 - Microsoft has entered a $6.2 billion agreement to build next-generation AI infrastructure in Norway [17] - Meta has launched the second generation of Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses, starting at $379 [18] - Several companies, including Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology and Mindray Medical, are preparing for IPOs in Hong Kong [19]

Core Viewpoint - Wantong Development has completed an investment of 854 million yuan to acquire a 62.98% stake in Beijing Shudu Information Technology Co., indicating a strategic shift towards technology amid ongoing financial struggles in the real estate sector [1][10]. Group 1: Company Background - Wantong Development was founded in 1991 by a group known as the "Six Gentlemen of Wantong," including Feng Lun and Pan Shiyi, and has a history rooted in real estate development [2][5]. - The company has faced significant challenges since Feng Lun's exit in 2016, struggling to find profitable returns from its technology investments [1][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Over the past three and a half years, Wantong has incurred losses totaling nearly 1.2 billion yuan, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [1][12]. - The company's revenue has stagnated between 2 to 5 billion yuan annually, with a notable drop to below 1 billion yuan in 2021 [6][12]. Group 3: Strategic Shift and Acquisitions - Wantong's acquisition of Beijing Shudu is seen as a critical move to pivot towards technology, following a series of unsuccessful attempts to enter the tech sector [1][10]. - The financial health of Beijing Shudu raises concerns, as it reported a revenue of 16.28 million yuan and a net loss of 35.98 million yuan in the first half of the year [10][11]. Group 4: Industry Context - Many real estate developers, including Evergrande and Country Garden, have attempted to diversify into technology sectors, but most have faced operational challenges and project failures [1][12]. - The trend of real estate companies entering technology has been marked by high investment but low returns, with many projects failing to materialize [12][17].

里昂证券报告指出，碧桂园服务上半年盈利下滑，表明行业基本面仍面临挑战。尽管如此，公司宣布将 全年派息率提高至60%，并进行股份回购，此举旨在提升股东回报。里昂证券将碧桂园服务今明两年的 盈利预测分别上调3.2%和下调5.8%，以反映减值调整，并将目标价从5.2港元上调至7.1港元，维持"持 有"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Citic Securities has raised the target price for Country Garden Services (06098) by 36.5%, from HKD 5.2 to HKD 7.1, while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] - The report indicates that the profit decline in the first half of 2025 reflects ongoing challenges in the overall industry fundamentals [1] - The board announced an increase in the basic dividend payout ratio from 32.6% for the fiscal year 2024 to 60% for the fiscal year 2025, along with a share buyback of RMB 500 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities has adjusted its earnings forecast for the company, increasing the 2025 profit estimate by 3.2% and decreasing the 2026 profit estimate by 6.8% to reflect changes in impairment loss predictions [1] - The valuation method has been reverted to the traditional price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [1]

Group 1 - Citic Lyon has raised the target price for Country Garden Services (06098) by 36.5%, from HKD 5.2 to HKD 7.1, while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] - The profit decline in the first half of 2025 reflects ongoing challenges in the overall industry fundamentals [1] - The board announced an increase in the basic dividend payout ratio from 32.6% for the fiscal year 2024 to 60% for the fiscal year 2025, along with a share buyback of RMB 500 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Lyon has adjusted its earnings forecast for the company, increasing the 2025 profit estimate by 3.2% and decreasing the 2026 profit estimate by 6.8% to reflect changes in impairment loss predictions [1] - The valuation method has been reverted to the traditional price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [1]