Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities of Central and Western China, particularly Wuhan and Chengdu, is experiencing a notable increase in new property launches and varying levels of sales performance [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Overview - From September 8 to October 5, 2025, Wuhan and Chengdu saw a total of 41 new property launches, with 4,406 units released, marking an 82% increase month-over-month [1]. - In Wuhan, 18 launches introduced 2,692 units with an overall absorption rate of approximately 41%, a decrease of about 6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Chengdu had 25 launches with 2,302 units, maintaining a similar absorption rate of 41%, with a focus on upgrading and newly renovated properties [7]. Group 2: Performance by City - In Wuhan, the Jiang'an District had the highest number of launches at 998 units, while only Jiang'an and Donghu High-tech Zone had absorption rates below 30% [2]. - The Wuhan Chengjian Jiangnan An project achieved a remarkable absorption rate of 89% with a launch of 142 units at an average price of 26,100 yuan per square meter [3][6]. - In Chengdu, the project "Zhaoshang Jinchengxu" sold all 92 units on the first day, achieving a 100% absorption rate, with an average price of 34,429 yuan per square meter [9]. Group 3: Product Types and Pricing - The majority of new launches in both cities are focused on upgrading and improvement-type products, with 85.4% of the offerings in Wuhan falling into these categories [1]. - In Wuhan, the price range for newly launched properties varies, with some projects offering units priced between 16,346 and 26,100 yuan per square meter [10]. - Chengdu's newly launched properties feature a price range of 22,000 to 60,000 yuan per square meter, with a significant portion being newly renovated [7][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Projects - Several notable projects are scheduled for launch in October 2025 in both cities, including "Wuhan Ideal Land" and "Chengdu Fudi Kunyu," with details on pricing and unit counts yet to be determined [12].

Group 1: Government Initiatives and Policies - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed five key areas to promote the implementation of "good housing," focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and management [1] - The "Guidelines for Optimizing Planning of Urban Stock Space" and 13 other industry standards were approved to provide tailored planning guidance for revitalizing old spaces [2] - Chongqing introduced innovative measures to support improved housing consumption, including increased use of housing vouchers and incentives for developers [3] Group 2: Financial and Market Developments - Nanjing raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limit from 500,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan per person, effective until December 31, 2027 [4] - Chengdu implemented new regulations allowing the area of auxiliary spaces like balconies to account for up to 30% of the residential building's total area [5] - The National Development Bank reported issuing 97.81 billion yuan in special loans for urban village renovations since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions and Performance - Guangzhou's Haizhu and Baiyun districts sold three residential land parcels for approximately 2.81 billion yuan, with notable transactions by China Overseas Land and Investment [7] - In Wuhan, three land parcels generated 737 million yuan, with China Merchants Shekou acquiring two of them [8] - The top 100 real estate companies in China saw a 12.2% year-on-year decline in sales for the first nine months of the year, with the average sales of the top 10 companies dropping by 11.2% [9] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Poly Developments announced a change in its controlling shareholder from Poly Southern to Poly Group, with the latter acquiring 4.512 billion shares [10] - Several real estate companies reported their sales performance for the first nine months, with Poly Developments seeing a 16.53% decrease in contract sales [11]

Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a revival due to a combination of supportive policies and promotional activities from real estate companies during the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][3] - Various local governments have implemented over 470 policies across approximately 200 provinces and cities to stimulate housing consumption, including easing purchase restrictions, canceling sales limits, and providing home purchase subsidies [1][3] Group 2: Market Response - Data indicates a positive response in the real estate market, with Beijing's new home transactions from September 1 to 29 reaching 3,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6% [4] - In Shenzhen, since the new policies were introduced on September 5, the number of second-hand residential transactions reached 3,699 units by October 6, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.63% [4] - The top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 252.78 billion yuan in September, marking a month-on-month increase of 22.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [4] Group 3: Promotional Activities - Real estate companies are actively organizing marketing campaigns and accelerating the pace of new project launches, with significant promotional activities observed during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [6][7] - In major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, various promotional events and activities have been organized to attract potential buyers, including extended viewing hours and themed events [7][8] Group 4: Second-Hand Market Dynamics - Recent policy changes have lowered the barriers for homebuyers, leading to a noticeable increase in the speed of second-hand home transactions [10] - In cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the second-hand market has seen a surge in inquiries and transactions, with many buyers arriving with clear purchase intentions [10] - The cancellation of sales restrictions in cities like Nanjing and Suzhou has further enhanced the liquidity of the second-hand housing market [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook amidst current market conditions [9]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by policy support and a focus on internal demand as a core driver [14]. - The report highlights the defensive characteristics of quality state-owned developers during market disruptions, particularly in response to tariff impacts [15]. - Commercial real estate is identified as having strong recovery potential, with specific companies like New Town Holdings and China Resources Mixc showing significant alpha during market sentiment recovery [16][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 0.82%, underperforming the broader market by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [21]. - The Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed the market with a gain of 1.25%, exceeding the Hang Seng Index by 4.39 percentage points, ranking 4th among 12 sectors [36]. Credit Market - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 940 million yuan this week, with a net financing amount of 939 million yuan. Cumulative issuance reached 337.01 billion yuan, with a net financing deficit of 38.57 billion yuan year-on-year [20][42]. Housing Market - New housing transaction volumes decreased by 11.69% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions increased by 4.33% year-on-year, indicating a mixed recovery in the housing market [6]. Land Market - The supply and transaction area of land in 100 cities increased by 7.07% and 18.60% respectively, with a rise in premium rates by 4.83% [5]. REITs Market - The REITs index saw a slight decline of 0.31%, with the property-type REITs index down by 0.51% and the franchise-type REITs index down by 0.07% [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a historic transformation in supply and demand dynamics, necessitating a new development model that balances stability, growth, and transition [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes that the stable and healthy development of the real estate market fundamentally depends on the effective allocation of four resource factors: people, housing, land, and finance [2]. - The traditional policy approach to stimulate the market needs to be adjusted, moving away from short-term solutions to a more nuanced understanding of supply-demand relationships and resident needs [3][7]. Group 2: "Guarantee Delivery" Initiatives - The "Guarantee Delivery" initiative remains a key focus in constructing the new real estate development model, with significant progress reported during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - Over 7 trillion yuan in loan approvals have been granted for projects on the "white list," aimed at ensuring normal construction funding and timely project delivery [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sales Data - From January to September 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 26,065.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2% [5]. - The market is transitioning to a "stock era," where the volume of second-hand housing transactions is surpassing that of new homes in 15 provinces, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6]. Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The new model emphasizes a shift from incremental to stock thinking, focusing on matching supply with actual demand rather than forcing supply based on government land purchases [7]. - The establishment of a mechanism for the interconnection of the four resource factors is underway, with local governments actively planning and assessing housing development strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产下跌、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周（10.4-10.10）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为-0.8%，在 各板块中位列第 23；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.3%，在各板块中位列第 4。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌 幅为+0.7%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为-3.1%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-0.5%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为+3.8%和+1.2%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周（10.4-10.10）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 333 万㎡，单周环比-56%，单周同比- 82%，平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 30756 万㎡，累计同比-9.9%；年初至今，中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.4-10.10)47 个城市商品房销售 151 万方，成交量环比-57%，同比-33%，整体处于季节性低位；8 月新房 售价环比-0.3%，环比跌幅持平，同比-3.0%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看：一 线城市周环比-72%，周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzhenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 住建部明确"好房子"五项工作，高质量 地开展好城市更新 ―地产及物管行业周报（2025/10/04-2025/10/10） 地产行业数据：一二手房成交跌幅扩大，成交推盘比回升。上周(10.4-10.10)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 98 万平米，环比-61.3%，其中，一二线环比-63.1%，三四线环比- 18.7%。10 月(10.1-10.10)34 城一手房成交同比-33.5%，较 9 月同期环比-56%。其 中，一二线同比-32.2%，三四线同比-45.3%，分别较 9 月同期环比-56.6%和-48.8%。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 48.7 万平米，环比-32%; 10 月累计成交同比-18.8%, 较 9 月同期环比-62.9%。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 20 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][27]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for growth, leading to a rebound in core cities and introducing new products, pricing, and business models [2][27]. - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 61.3% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality urban renewal and effective city governance as outlined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [2][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 980,000 square meters, down 61.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 63.1% decline [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 33.5% compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities stands at 90.27 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][19]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined five key areas for the "Good House" initiative, focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and operation [2][27]. - Local policies include Guangzhou's measures to optimize land use and Longchun's reduction of down payment ratios for housing loans [2][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a 25.1% decrease in sales volume for the first nine months of the year, totaling 10.104 million square meters [2][33]. - New City Holdings issued offshore bonds worth $160 million at a rate of 11.9% [2][33]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.82%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 0.51% [2][38]. - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hefei Urban Construction and Zhongrun Resources, while noting significant declines in others like Shenzhen Deep Housing [2][40].