Equity – Asia Research 2025 年全球新能源展望 --哪些可行，哪些不可行 Scott Darling, scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine Li, catherine.dy.li@htisec.com 2025 年 6 月 23 日 （本报告为 2025 年 6 月 19 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International (Japan) K.K.("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), a ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The mechanical industry has seen significant growth in the first half of 2025, with a nearly 14% increase, ranking sixth among all A-share sectors [2] - The industry is influenced by themes such as robotics, reducers, and hard technology, with a focus on undervalued assets [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: The mechanical sector's investment opportunities are concentrated in hard technology (e.g., giant wheel intelligence, controllable nuclear fusion) and undervalued assets [1][5] - **Domestic Demand**: The recovery in domestic demand for engineering machinery is moderate, primarily driven by equipment upgrades. Excavator sales slowed in Q2, but large excavators continue to perform well [1][6][7] - **External Demand**: The external demand for engineering machinery is strong, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with potential growth in the European and American markets [1][9] - **Industrial Control Sector**: The industrial control sector reversed its downward trend in Q1 2025, showing a 2.35% year-on-year growth, with rapid growth in HVAC and industrial robots [1][10] Important but Overlooked Content - **Overseas Expansion**: China's manufacturing direct investment abroad has grown from $19.108 billion in 2018 to $27.342 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.43%. ASEAN's share in this investment is increasing [4] - **Market Dynamics**: The mechanical industry is closely tied to the performance of the manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, which are currently showing signs of weakness [3] - **Future Outlook**: The second half of 2025 is expected to see a focus on hard technology and high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market due to ample supply and global capital inflow [5][52] Recommendations - **Key Companies**: Recommended companies in the mechanical sector include Haitan International, Sany International, and Jerry Holdings, among others, with a focus on hard technology firms like Aobi Zhongguang and Sikang Technology [53] - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors are advised to pay attention to the controllable nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to see significant investment opportunities in the latter half of 2025 [50][51]

Group 1 - International oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 2.48% and WTI by 2.7%, both showing over 20% gains since June, primarily driven by the Israel-Iran conflict [3][5] - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with over 7 million shares net subscribed and a total of over 64 million yuan raised in the past 10 days [1][3] - Major stocks within the oil and gas ETF have experienced significant price increases, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 10% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) showing a slight increase of 0.90% [3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have escalated risks in the region, with potential implications for oil supply and prices [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that while they do not foresee major supply disruptions, the risks of supply decline and price increases have risen, predicting Brent crude could reach around 90 USD per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [6][7] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through it, including significant percentages of oil and gas exports [8]

Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF (159697.SZ) increased by 1.85%, with the associated index, Guozheng Oil and Gas (399439.SZ), rising by 1.82% [1] - Major constituent stocks saw significant gains, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) up 1.61%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) up 0.87%, and China Merchants Energy (招商南油) up 10.16% [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense following the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential retaliatory actions from Iran, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [1] Group 2 - Since the onset of the conflict, the oil and gas ETF has experienced a net inflow of 108 million, with a net inflow rate of 127% [2] - The report indicates that historical data suggests such conflicts typically lead to short-term reactions in oil prices, while long-term prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.51% to close at 3359.9 points [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only a few sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and electronics saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, and medical biology faced significant declines [2] - Notably, sub-sectors like stablecoins, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and solid-state batteries showed active performance [2] Company Highlights - A total of 208 listed companies released investor research summaries, with around 50 institutions reporting positive returns. Companies like Yishijingmi and Yuanhang Precision saw weekly gains exceeding 20%, while Lin Tai New Materials and others achieved gains over 10% [2] - The electronics sector garnered the highest attention, with companies like Lexin Technology receiving over 250 institutional inquiries, and Nanjiguang hosting more than 60 [2] Nanjiguang's Performance - Nanjiguang's stock surged due to its status as the only certified backlight module supplier for Nintendo, coinciding with the impressive sales of the newly launched Switch 2, which sold over 3.5 million units within four days of release [2][4] - The successful mass production of the Switch 2 project validates Nanjiguang's core technological capabilities and quality control systems, potentially driving further orders in various sectors including gaming and automotive displays [4] PCB Market Insights - The PCB sector has shown strong performance, with CITIC PCB reporting a cumulative increase of 6% in stock prices. The market is expected to enter a new phase of capacity expansion driven by demand from emerging markets and AI technology [4] - Companies like Huidian and Shennan Circuit confirmed high capacity utilization rates, with expectations of increased demand for high-performance PCB products due to the accelerating evolution of AI technology [5] Energy Market Impact - The Middle East situation has influenced global energy market trends, with companies like Jereh and Huarong focusing on strategic market expansions in the region. Jereh plans to explore more collaboration opportunities while Huarong emphasizes the long-term nature of oil investments despite short-term price fluctuations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment sector [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with equipment manufacturers being the primary beneficiaries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish a standard system for solid-state batteries by 2025, with significant investments already made in R&D [2] - The forklift industry shows strong growth, with May sales reaching 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a robust outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with May excavator sales at 18,202 units, a 2.12% increase year-on-year. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment - Solid-state battery commercialization is accelerating, benefiting equipment suppliers. Key players include: - **Xian Dao Intelligent**: Offers a complete solution for solid-state battery manufacturing [2] - **Yinghe Technology**: Recently delivered core solid-state battery equipment to a leading domestic battery company [2] - **Huaya Intelligent**: Signed an agreement for a 200MWh solid-state battery production line project [2] - Investment recommendations focus on solid-state battery equipment suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and laser welding equipment manufacturers [2] Forklift Industry - May forklift sales reached 123,000 units, with domestic sales at 79,000 units (up 9%) and exports at 44,000 units (up 17%). The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - Key players include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group, which are actively pursuing smart logistics solutions [3] Engineering Machinery - May excavator sales were 18,202 units, with a slight year-on-year increase. The sector is seeing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with a 9% increase in export value for engineering machinery in the first five months of 2025 [4] - Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, as the sector is currently undervalued [4] General Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong growth potential in the solid-state battery and engineering machinery sectors, highlighting the importance of technological advancements and market demand [2][4]

Group 1 - The deep-sea economy is emerging as a new economic form that encompasses the entire chain of resource extraction, circulation, and consumption, becoming a blue engine driving national economic growth and a key component of global sustainable development [2][3] - The Chinese government has set a grand goal of establishing a national marine economy development demonstration zone, with local governments implementing targeted plans to promote deep-sea technology and blue economy development [2][3] - Companies like Yantai Jereh Petroleum Service Group and Beijing Hailanxin Data Technology are focusing on high-end marine engineering equipment manufacturing and key system R&D, respectively, to align with national strategies in deep-sea technology [3][5] Group 2 - The deep-sea exploration journey is challenged by complex marine environments, monopolized core technologies, and high R&D costs, testing the resilience and intelligence of companies [4][5] - Companies are transforming challenges into opportunities by increasing R&D investment, strengthening core technologies, and accelerating industrialization and international standard recognition [5][6] - The development of green clean energy, particularly in offshore areas, is still in the exploratory phase, indicating a need for time to cultivate the market [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 1.41%, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index closed at 1804.41 points with a trading volume of 20.451 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 4.76%, while it has risen by 2.10% over the last three months. Year-to-date, it has decreased by 1.12% [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in oil and gas exploration, equipment manufacturing, transportation, sales, refining, and primary petrochemical production [1]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China National Petroleum (10.35%), China National Offshore Oil (9.82%), Sinopec (9.79%), Guanghui Energy (6.14%), and others [1]. - The index is primarily composed of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (75.99%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (24.01%) [1]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index shows that energy constitutes 65.60%, materials 15.64%, industrials 15.15%, utilities 1.77%, consumer discretionary 1.04%, and financials 0.80% [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the oil and gas market is experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing concerns about Iranian oil restrictions and potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to rising oil prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [2][1]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) has reached a new high in scale at 185 million yuan and a new high in shares at 178 million, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) account for 66.48% of the index, with major companies including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [2]. Group 2 - Recent data shows that Iran's oil and condensate production is approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, with average exports of about 1.7 million barrels per day this year [1]. - The oil and gas ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 41.26 million yuan, totaling 112 million yuan [1]. - The National Oil and Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2].

Company Overview - Guangdong Huicheng Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, production, sales, and technical services of vacuum coating equipment [2] - The main products include medium-frequency magnetron sputtering coating equipment, high-precision electron beam evaporation optical coating equipment, and various other specialized coating devices [2] - The company has participated in the formulation of industry standards and has received multiple certifications in management systems [2] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 97.39 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.82% [3] - The net profit for the same period was 8.32 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 17.76% [3] - The gross profit margin stood at 25.89% [3] Market Position - As of June 19, the company's stock closed at 103.8 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio of 156.58, marking a new low in 11 days [1] - The average PE ratio for the specialized equipment industry is 59.32, with a median of 47.87, placing the company at the 240th position in the industry ranking [1] - The total market capitalization of the company is 10.38 billion yuan [1] Institutional Holdings - As of Q1 2025, 23 institutions hold shares in the company, all of which are funds, with a total holding of 7.25 million shares valued at 599 million yuan [1]