↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：只买消费垄断 来源：雪球 逆向思维，就是，反过来想。总是反过来想。芒格认为，研究失败比研究成功更有价值。因为失败往往揭示了根本问题和风险所在。通过逆向思 考，人们可以更好的识别和规避陷阱，避免犯同样的错误。在股市投资中，芒格通过研究失败的公司的共同规律，来规避风险，他认为避免愚蠢比 追求智慧更容易成功，芒格在书中把失败的公司的原因归为四大类。 第一类失败，能力圈之外的无知型失败：不懂的公司坚决不买。 投资者买股票踩雷，本质是公司的失败。公司失败，本质是投资者和管理者，对业务的底层逻辑毫无认知。导致决策脱离现实。比如盲目跨界，盲 目多元化，比如传统制造业去做互联网，消费品公司去投资芯片，缺乏技术积累也不懂新行业规则，最终投入打水漂。比如箭牌口香糖，主业做的 很好，但是为了多元化盲目收购软件公司，因为完全不懂软件的研发，迭代逻辑，最终软件业务持续亏损，拖累了主业。再比如阿里巴巴投资饿了 吗，苏宁易购，大润发，高德地图，基本都是亏损累累。伯克希尔1989年收购美国航空优先股，到1994年亏损75%。芒格后来承认他和巴菲特低估 了航空业密集的资本投入和同质化竞争；再比如贵州 ...

Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

Core Insights - Huawei's Global Hybrid Cloud Integration Summit highlighted the theme of "Data + AI Dual Engine Driving Accelerated Digital Transformation for Government and Enterprises" [1] - The launch of Huawei Cloud Stack 8.6 focuses on continuous innovation in four areas: cloud foundation, data + AI, application modernization, and integrated operations [1][5] Group 1: Digital Transformation and AI Integration - The focus of enterprises has shifted from "computing power construction anxiety" to "technology application pressure" in AI integration [3] - Non-structured data utilization has increased by 60% annually over the past two years, accelerating the release of data value for intelligent upgrades [3] - The "Green Beautiful Channel" traffic model developed by Yunnan Jiaotong improved accuracy by 20% compared to general models and enhanced toll station traffic prediction accuracy by approximately 10% [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Applications of AI - AI capabilities are being applied in complex industrial processes, such as steel production, to enhance efficiency [4] - China Aluminum Corporation collaborated with Huawei to implement AI across eight business areas, achieving full-process intelligence from perception to decision-making [4] Group 3: Financial Sector Innovations - Huawei Cloud is exploring multi-Agent collaboration solutions to enhance service experience and efficiency in the financial sector [5] - The integration of various applications aims to address challenges such as system integration difficulties and long development cycles [5] Group 4: Huawei Cloud Stack 8.6 Upgrades - Huawei Cloud Stack 8.6 introduces significant enhancements in cloud foundation, data + AI capabilities, application modernization, and integrated operations [5][7] - The new version optimizes computing power usage and management, reducing model deployment time and enhancing operational efficiency [7] - Data engineering capabilities have been improved to ensure data trustworthiness and manageability during circulation [8] Group 5: Application Modernization and Development Tools - The introduction of GaussDB's three-tier pooled distributed architecture significantly boosts database performance and security [8] - CodeArts Doer enhances the entire development process, with over 6,000 developers at Postal Savings Bank utilizing it to generate over 290,000 lines of code [8] Group 6: Future Directions and Client Engagement - Huawei Cloud aims to enhance operational efficiency through AI-driven tools for knowledge Q&A, data retrieval, and fault diagnosis [9] - The company has gained the trust of over 5,500 global clients and is committed to continuous investment in cloud platform and service competitiveness [9]

Core Insights - The aluminum alloy production in China is projected to reach 1.65 million tons by May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [1] - Cumulative aluminum alloy production from January to May 2025 is expected to be 7.405 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 15.2% [1] Company Insights - Listed companies in the aluminum industry include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Mingtai Aluminum (601677), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Yiqiu Resources (601388), Haomei New Materials (002988), Asia Pacific Technology (002540), and Shunbo Alloy (002996) [1] Industry Reports - The report titled "2025-2031 China Aluminum Alloy Industry Market Operation Pattern and Prospect Strategic Analysis Report" has been released by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating a focus on the future landscape of the aluminum alloy market in China [1][2]

目 錄 | 2 | 釋義 | | --- | --- | | 7 | 公司資料 | | 10 | 行業情況及市場回顧 | | 13 | 業務回顧 | | 17 | 前景與展望 | | 17 | 中期業績 | | 17 | 中期股息 | | 18 | 管理層對財務狀況和經營業績的討論及分析 | | 26 | 公司投資情況 | | 27 | 董事及高級管理人員 | | 31 | 僱員及退休金計劃 | | 33 | 股本結構、變動及股東情況 | | 34 | 持股5%或以上主要股東 | | 35 | 股份變動及批准情況 | | 36 | 報告期末股東總數 | | 37 | 前十名股東持股情況 | | 38 | 董事及最高行政人員所擁有的股份權益 | | 40 | 回購、出售和贖回本公司之股份 | | 40 | 集團資產抵押及質押 | | 41 | 擔保情況 | | 42 | 公司管治 | | 43 | 有關董事及有關僱員的證券交易的行為守則 | | 43 | 董事會及其下轄委員會、股東會 | | 52 | 重要事項 | | 69 | 中期財務資料的獨立審閱報告 | | 70 | 未經審計中期簡明合併財務資料 | 釋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The modern energy sector in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements, with a focus on energy storage and renewable energy solutions [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index decreased by 0.03%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3]. - China Coal Energy led the gains with an increase of 3.90%, while China Rare Earths saw a decline of 1.82% [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.18%, closing at 1.15 yuan, and has accumulated a 1.06% increase over the past two weeks [3]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The 2025 World Energy Storage Conference opened in Ningde, Fujian, showcasing significant advancements in the energy storage sector, including the release of the "China Long-term Energy Storage Industry Blue Book" and the signing of 18 project cooperation agreements with a total planned investment of 24.58 billion yuan [3]. - The industry is witnessing a robust development of a comprehensive new energy storage system, with expectations of doubling large-scale storage capacity in the next two and a half years due to favorable policies [4]. Group 3: ETF and Index Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 2.11 million yuan over the past year, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The index tracks 50 listed companies involved in modern energy sectors, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 48.28% of the index [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant gains in stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, driven by rising demand in the solid-state battery market and the overall growth in the electric vehicle sector [1][2] - The Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 2.14%, with Ganfeng Lithium (002460) increasing by 10.00%, and other related stocks also showing substantial gains [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to enhance lithium battery technology innovation and accelerate the development of solid-state batteries and other advanced battery technologies [1] Group 2 - The downstream electric vehicle market is entering a traditional peak season, leading to increased demand for power batteries, while renewable energy and new data centers are driving high growth in energy storage demand [2] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, creating a certain incremental demand for materials and equipment in the supply chain [2] - The Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 50.35% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has shown fluctuations with an increase of 8.11% year-to-date, but a recent decline of 2.99% over the last five trading days, indicating volatility in the market [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Aluminum achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.07 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.77% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, China Aluminum has distributed a total of 11.25 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.71 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On September 19, China Aluminum's stock rose by 2.09%, reaching 7.80 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 698 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69%. The total market capitalization stood at 133.81 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 48.23 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders, indicating strong investor interest [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for China Aluminum increased to 366,900, reflecting a growth of 5.08% compared to the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable ETFs, with Huaxia SSE 50 ETF holding 155 million shares as a new shareholder and Haitong Securities' ETF increasing its holdings by 11.42 million shares [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry index is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in lithium and cobalt stocks due to rising lithium carbonate prices [1] - As of September 18, the battery-grade lithium carbonate index price reached 73,464 yuan/ton, an increase of 348 yuan/ton from the previous working day, indicating a bullish market for lithium [1] - The industrial-grade lithium carbonate price also saw an increase, with an average price of 71,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a consistent upward trend in spot transaction prices [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities from the non-ferrous metal sector, representing the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 50.35% of the total index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth being the most significant contributors [2]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi showed a turnover rate of 0.92% with a transaction volume of 79.0687 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume reached 550 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 21.6259 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares grew by 13.5 million shares in the past week, marking significant growth and leading among comparable funds [3] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 234 million yuan [3] - As of September 18, the ETF's net value increased by 121.61% over the past year, ranking 142 out of 3014 index stock funds, placing it in the top 4.71% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and a maximum increase of 83.89% [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Trends - On September 15, Galaxy Magnetics announced a suspension of trading to acquire 100% of Kyoto Longtai Technology Co., Ltd., with a preliminary agreement signed with 14 counterparties [4] - Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 18.866 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%, and a net profit of 931 million yuan, up 1951.52% [4] - The basic earnings per share were 0.2576 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 4.06% [4] - Demand for rare earth materials is rapidly increasing due to policies promoting "carbon neutrality," as well as the recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robots [4]