Core Viewpoint - The China Air Transport Association is developing a group standard for flight seat reservation rules to regulate the types, scope, and proportion of reserved seats, addressing consumer complaints about limited choices and lack of transparency in seat selection [1][3]. Group 1: Regulation of Seat Reservation - The new standard aims to guide airlines in standardizing seat reservation practices to better meet diverse passenger needs [3]. - A survey by the Jiangsu Consumer Council revealed that all ten major airlines investigated had seat locking practices, with no airline fully opening all economy class seats [3][4]. - The proportion of locked seats varies significantly, with some routes showing over 60% of economy seats locked, particularly in preferred areas [4]. Group 2: Consumer Rights and Transparency - The Jiangsu Consumer Council identified four main issues with seat locking: widespread locking behavior, excessive locking of quality seats, opaque information, and unfair contractual terms [4]. - Consumers expressed a willingness to pay for seat selection but demanded clear and reasonable locking standards [9][10]. Group 3: Airline Revenue Strategies - Airlines are increasingly relying on ancillary revenue from seat selection fees due to pressure from declining ticket prices and operational challenges [7]. - The global ancillary revenue for airlines is projected to reach $148.4 billion in 2024, indicating a growing trend in this revenue stream [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Fair Practices - Industry experts suggest a model where at least 70% of seats are available for free selection, with 30% reserved for paid options, ensuring fairness for early and late bookers [10][11]. - Airlines are encouraged to adopt transparent pricing and clear rules for seat selection to enhance consumer trust and satisfaction [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].

飞机锁座将迎来新规。近日，中国航协发布公告，正组织各航空公司研究制定《公共航空运输企业航班 预留座位规则》团体标准，拟对预留座位的种类、范围、比例及旅客信息告知等关键内容进行规范。当 前，国内航班普遍存在锁座行为，尤其是优质座位被高比例锁定，引发消费者对选择权受限、信息不透 明的投诉。尽管选座付费是航空公司的辅营收入来源之一，但其操作缺乏统一标准，行业发展尚不成 熟。业内专家表示，新规范有助于在旅客权益与航司收益之间取得平衡，并推动形成更合理的座位投放 机制。 拟规范预留座位的种类、范围等 根据中国航协发布的公告，为进一步引导航空公司规范航班预留座位行为，更好地满足旅客多样化、差 异化的座位选择需求，在民航局的指导下，中国航协正组织各航空公司研究制定《公共航空运输企业航 班预留座位规则》团体标准，拟对预留座位的种类、范围、比例及旅客信息告知等关键内容进行规范。 该标准将于近日向社会公开征求意见。 近年来，飞机锁座受到社会广泛关注。在中国航协组织制定团标之前，江苏省消保委就曾发布专项调查 报告，指出国内航空服务中锁座现象具有普遍性。 江苏省消保委对国内10家主流航空公司官方购票App的摸查结果显示，调查覆盖航线 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shijiazhuang Zhengding International Airport is enhancing its flight network in preparation for the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, focusing on increasing capacity for key routes to meet passenger demand for travel to popular cities and family reunions [1][2]. Group 1: Flight Network Optimization - The airport has added new direct flights from Shijiazhuang to Fuzhou, with a daily flight schedule, increasing the frequency to a maximum of 4 flights per day [1]. - Starting February 2, Spring Airlines will increase the Shijiazhuang-Changchun route to 5 flights per week, with a maximum of 6 flights per day after the new schedule [2]. - China Southern Airlines will also enhance the Shijiazhuang-Guangzhou route by adding early and late flights, raising the total to 8 flights per day, which provides better coverage for different travel times [2]. Group 2: Additional Route Enhancements - Other airlines are set to increase flights to key hub cities such as Chengdu, Nanning, Shenyang, Dalian, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Yinchuan, offering more options for returning travelers and efficient routes for business travelers [2]. - During the Spring Festival, the maximum number of flights from Shijiazhuang to Chengdu will reach 11, with 7 flights to Shanghai, 6 to Harbin, and 5 to Xiamen, enhancing travel convenience and flexibility for passengers [2]. Group 3: Future Plans - The airport will continue to monitor changes in travel demand during the Spring Festival and work with airlines to optimize flight capacity and improve service measures for a smoother travel experience [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [4]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [4]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market remains robust, with VLCC rates averaging around $105,090 per day, despite a recent decline in rates due to increased supply [4]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase to 1,762 points, driven by increased grain exports from South America [4]. - The air transport sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, marking a potential golden era for airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The shipping market is experiencing a strong correlation with commodity prices, with VLCC and Cape rates showing significant increases [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and supply constraints in maintaining high shipping rates [4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices are on the rise, reflecting the overall health of the shipping market, with a slight increase in the new ship composite index [4]. Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker market remains strong, with high average rates for VLCCs and a stable demand despite recent fluctuations [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The dry bulk market is witnessing a rebound, particularly in the Capesize segment, driven by favorable export conditions from South America [4]. Air Transport Sector - The air transport sector is poised for significant growth, with airlines expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and a constrained supply of aircraft [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The logistics sector is seeing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a focus on firms like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to maintain their competitive advantages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is guiding the China Air Transport Association to establish a group standard for flight seat reservation rules, aiming to address consumer complaints regarding airlines' seat locking practices and to better meet diverse passenger needs [2][12]. Group 1: Seat Locking Practices - A recent survey by the Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee revealed that the average seat locking ratio for ten major airlines in the economy class is 38.7%, with some routes exceeding 60% [5][6]. - Airlines justify seat locking as a means to reserve seats for special passengers and maintain flight load balance, but many consumers find this practice contradictory, as preferred seats are often locked while less desirable seats remain available [6][7]. - The locked seats are concentrated in desirable locations, such as front rows and exit rows, while the free seats are typically in less favorable areas [6][7]. Group 2: Revenue Generation - Airlines are increasingly relying on auxiliary revenue streams, such as seat selection fees, to offset rising operational costs and losses incurred during the pandemic [10][12]. - The global auxiliary revenue for airlines is projected to reach $148.4 billion in 2024, accounting for nearly 15% of total industry revenue, highlighting the importance of this revenue source [3][11]. - Domestic airlines in China have been slow to develop auxiliary revenue compared to international counterparts, with reported figures significantly lower than global averages [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The CAAC's initiative to create standardized seat reservation rules is seen as a response to consumer complaints and aims to establish a more equitable market environment [12][13]. - Experts suggest that a reasonable proportion of free seats should be maintained to ensure fair access for all passengers, with recommendations for airlines to keep over 50% of seats available for free selection [14][15].

1月23日，中航协发布公告，为进一步引导航空公司规范航班预留座位行为，更好满足旅客多 样化、差异化的座位选择需求， 在民航局的指导下， 中国航空运输协会正组织各航空公司研 究制定《公共航空运输企业航班预留座位规则》团体标准，拟对预留座位的种类、范围、比例 及旅客信息告知等关键内容进行规范。 "这就是回应了旅客的呼声"。民航业内人士林智杰向21世纪经济报道表示。近两年众多消费者 投诉航司锁座行为，江苏省消费者权益保护委员会近期发布的一份调查显示， 十家主流航司 的经济舱平均锁座比例高达38.7%，部分航线甚至超过60%。 超三成优质座位被锁定 记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 在中航协下场前，江苏省消费者权益保护委员会近期发布的专项调查报告，指出了国内航空服 务中"锁座"现象的普遍性。 一位不愿具名的国内航司工作人员向21世纪经济报道坦言， 航司锁座的小心思是想增长辅助 收入，但付费选座被国家发改委处罚后，通过锁座曲线获得多元产品收益成了新路径。 只不 过疫情前锁座没那么高，疫情后航司连年亏损，经营压力下锁座比例才节节攀升，最终令旅客 忍无可忍。 不过，与国际通行的锁座比例相比，中国航司并不算出格，国内航司也颇为委屈 ...