责任编辑：杨红卜 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 8月26日，港股收盘，恒生指数跌1.18%，恒生科技指数跌0.74%。东方甄选跌超11%，蔚来、君实生物 跌超6%，中兴通讯跌近6%，碧桂园跌超5%；中国黄金国际涨超10%，灵宝黄金涨超9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property stocks experienced a collective decline after a brief rise, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of recent policy changes aimed at boosting the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major property stocks such as Shimao Group, New World Development, and Greentown China saw significant declines, with Shimao Group dropping by 6.4% and New World Development by 4.55% [1] - Other companies like China Jinmao, Midea Real Estate, and Country Garden also faced losses, with declines exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent policy adjustment in Shanghai, known as "Six Measures," allows unlimited purchases for eligible buyers outside the outer ring and treats single buyers as families, which initially boosted market confidence [1] - Despite the short-term positive impact, there are ongoing doubts about the long-term effectiveness of these policies and the actual improvement in the market fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market requires continuous support beyond initial policy changes, with a focus on whether more cities will follow suit and how existing policies will be implemented, particularly regarding credit support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Shanghai's real estate market, including reduced housing purchase restrictions and increased loan limits, are expected to significantly stimulate demand and improve market conditions, leading to a surge in real estate stock prices [1][3][4]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows individuals who have paid social insurance for one year to purchase unlimited housing outside the outer ring road, and single adults are treated as family units for purchasing limits [3][4]. - The maximum housing provident fund loan limit has been increased to 2.16 million yuan, and first-time buyers without local residency are exempt from property tax [3][4]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the A-share real estate sector saw significant gains, with companies like Wantong Development and Vanke A experiencing price increases of over 9% [1][2]. - The overall market sentiment shifted positively, with institutional investors increasing their holdings in real estate stocks, leading to a net purchase of over 3 billion yuan in a single day [4][6]. Broader Implications - The policy is seen as a catalyst for a nationwide easing trend, with similar adjustments occurring in other major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, which may enhance market confidence [4][5]. - The adjustments are expected to lead to a restructuring of supply and demand dynamics in the real estate market, pushing for quality upgrades in housing supply [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality real estate companies and sectors benefiting from policy relaxations, such as building materials and home appliances [6]. - Long-term strategies may include tracking urban renewal projects and affordable housing initiatives, which could yield significant returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Shanghai's real estate market are expected to significantly stimulate demand and improve market conditions, with a focus on enhancing housing accessibility and financial support for buyers [1][3][4]. Policy Adjustments - The new policies include reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund usage, increasing personal housing loan limits to a maximum of 2.16 million yuan, and exempting first-time homebuyers from property tax [3][4]. - The policies will take effect from August 26, 2025, and are seen as a response to similar adjustments made in other major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [3][4]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the A-share real estate sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Wantong Development hitting the daily limit and others like Vanke A and Deep Shenzhen A rising over 9% [2]. - The overall market sentiment shifted positively, driven by the expectation of improved fundamentals for leading real estate companies and a recovery in market confidence [4][5]. Economic Impact - The policy changes are viewed as a major regional initiative that could activate substantial latent demand for housing, particularly in the outer areas of Shanghai [4][5]. - The adjustments are expected to create a nationwide easing atmosphere, enhancing market confidence and potentially leading to a recovery in housing transactions [4][5]. Long-term Implications - The Shanghai policy is anticipated to serve as a testing ground for supply-demand restructuring, financial policy innovation, and land market differentiation [5][6]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality real estate firms and sectors benefiting from policy relaxations, such as building materials and home appliances, while also considering long-term opportunities in urban renewal and rental housing [6][7].

丨证券研究报告丨 投资策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 恒生系列指数季度检讨结果公布，港股通名单或 随之调整——"重估牛"系列之"入通"策略 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 8 月 22 日，恒生指数公司发布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，恒生 指数、恒生中国企业指数，以及恒生综合指数等指数的成分股发生变化。 纳入恒生综合指数的 个股有望进入港股通，根据我们对于 2022 年至 2025 年 3 月"入通"的全样本进行统计，纳入 港股通前个股有望实现一定涨幅，建议持续关注。 [Table_Title 恒生系列指数季度检讨结果公布，港股通名单 2] 或随之调整——"重估牛"系列之"入通"策略 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 8 月 22 日，恒生指数公司发布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，恒生 指数、恒生中国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, the bond market rebounded, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, most convertible bond issues rose, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined, and yields of 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and municipalities, aiming to expand the cross - border financing scale of enterprises investing in green development or low - carbon transformation projects and improve the facilitation of green foreign debt business [3]. - The Ministry of Finance answered questions on regulating the construction and operation of government - social capital cooperation (PPP) stock projects, focusing on ensuring the completion of ongoing projects [3]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion [4]. - **International News** - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a three - year high, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a two - month low. The preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, a nine - month high. The price index reached a three - year high [5]. - The US labor market cooled significantly, with the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [6]. - Two Fed officials suggested that there may be no interest rate cut in September [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 21, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI October crude futures up 1.29% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent October crude futures up 1.24% to $67.67 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $3381.6 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.59% to $2.807 per ounce [8]. II. Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On August 21, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 253 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 124.3 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 fell 0.99bp to 1.464%, and DR007 fell 5.40bp to 1.514% [11]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 21, the bond market rebounded. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.90bp to 1.7610%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 fell 3.45bp to 1.8530% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds were tendered on August 21, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 21, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell more than 33%, while "21 Shanghai Shimao MTN002" rose more than 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced events such as being listed as被执行人, failing to repay loans, and delaying the disclosure of semi - annual reports [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 21, the A - share market fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.06% and 0.46% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.42%, 0.31%, and 0.58% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - Some convertible bonds announced events such as approaching the conditions for downward revision of conversion prices and early redemption [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 3.74%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.29% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.75%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively [27].

知名港股跌幅榜前十： | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 今开 | 最高 | 最低 | 昨收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 06969 | 思摩尔国际 | 22.200 | -5.37% | 23.500 | 23.880 | 21.600 | 23.460 | | 2 | 09626 | 哔哩哔哩-W | 186.600 | -5.18% | 187.000 | 188.100 | 181.500 | 196.800 | | 3 | 00753 | 中国国航 | 5.190 | -4.95% | 5.460 | 5.470 | 5.060 | 5.460 | | 4 | 00998 | 中信银行 | 7.150 | -2.32% | 7.350 | 7.360 | 7.140 | 7.320 | | 5 | 00728 | 中国电信 | 6.160 | -1.75% | 6.270 | 6.300 | 6.160 | 6.270 | | 6 | 09698 | 万国数据-SW | 31.3 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that after a significant adjustment in the short credit market, there is an increased potential for gains, recommending a focus on mid to short-term credit investments [4][7][8] - The credit bond market has experienced a comprehensive valuation adjustment, with notable declines particularly in the short-end credits, leading to a mixed market sentiment [4][7][17] - The strategy continues to emphasize riding the steep parts of the yield curve, particularly in the 2Y to 3Y range, as these segments are seen as having the strongest certainty and stability [8][9][20] Group 2 - The weekly review indicates that the issuance of credit bonds remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a deeper negative net financing [14][15] - The average issuance costs for new bonds across various ratings have significantly increased, with AAA and AA+ rated bonds seeing rises of 10bp and 13bp respectively [14][15] - The liquidity in the secondary market for credit bonds has further declined, with trading volumes and turnover rates decreasing [17][24] Group 3 - The report highlights that credit spreads across various grades and maturities have widened, indicating a trend of adjustment and potential risk in the market [20][22][24] - The credit spreads for local government bonds have also shown a widening trend, with an average increase of around 3bp across provinces [22][24] - The real estate sector has experienced the most significant widening in credit spreads, with some companies seeing increases of up to 6bp [24]

Core Viewpoint - The operating conditions of listed real estate companies remain challenging, with Country Garden expecting a significant increase in losses for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Country Garden anticipates a loss between 18.5 billion to 21.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase from a loss of 15.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][3]. - The losses are attributed to a decline in the scale of real estate project settlements, persistently low gross margins, and increased asset impairments in property projects [2][4]. - Over 60% of listed real estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen reported losses in the first half of 2025, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous year [4]. Group 2: Debt Management - Despite the losses, Country Garden is actively working to mitigate debt risks through proactive communication with stakeholders and restructuring efforts [5]. - The company has made progress in restructuring approximately 14.1 billion USD of offshore debt, with significant support from creditors [6][7]. - Country Garden aims to complete the proposed restructuring by the end of 2025, focusing on improving operational efficiency and adapting to new market conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The operating conditions of listed real estate companies are not showing signs of improvement, with significant losses reported by major players like Country Garden [2][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Country Garden expects a loss of between 18.5 billion to 21.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase from the 15.1 billion yuan loss in the same period of 2024 [2][5]. - The losses are attributed to a decline in the scale of real estate project settlements, persistently low gross margins, and increased asset impairments [4][6]. - Over 60% of listed real estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen reported losses in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6]. Group 2: Debt Management - Despite the losses, Country Garden is actively working to resolve its debt issues through communication with stakeholders and restructuring efforts [8][10]. - The company has made progress in restructuring approximately 14.1 billion USD of offshore debt, with significant support from creditors [9][10]. - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real estate companies have received approval for debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan [10].