行 业 研 究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定品种 ——行业投资策略 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《政策助力预期企稳，静待绿电触底 回升—行业投资策略》-2025.2.19 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性 —电力行业 2025 年度 投资策略》-2024.11.8 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性—电力行业 2025年度投 资策略》-2024.11.7 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 行业回顾：电力需求稳定，电源电网投资持续增长 2024 年全社会用电量 9.87 万亿千瓦时，yoy+7.0%；电源投资额 1.17 万亿元， yoy+20.8%；电网投资额 6083 亿元，yoy+15.3%。截至 2025 年 4 月 30，公用事 业板块累计下跌 2.9%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 19；电力板块累计下跌 2.3%， 电网设备板块累计下跌 5.4%，分别在 124 个二级行业中排名第 68 和第 87。 电力：成本下行、政策出台改善盈利预期，息差扩张提高红利配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with sectors like non-ferrous metals, insurance, liquor, and semiconductors rising, while oil, electricity, and home appliances sectors declined [1] Sector Summaries Insurance - Major companies include China Pacific Insurance (market cap: 292.65 billion), Ping An Insurance (market cap: 321.07 billion), and China Life Insurance (market cap: 925.08 billion) with trading volumes of 8.47 million, 19.92 million, and 5.97 million respectively [3] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 0.57 (+1.91%), Ping An by 0.09 (+0.18%), and China Life by 0.20 (+2.83%) [3] Liquor Industry - Key players are Kweichow Moutai (market cap: 1947.36 billion), Shanxi Fenjiu (market cap: 249.29 billion), and Wuliangye (market cap: 502.63 billion) with trading volumes of 28.39 million, 8.70 million, and 18.89 million respectively [3] - Kweichow Moutai increased by 3.20 (+0.21%), Shanxi Fenjiu by 0.24 (+0.12%), and Wuliangye by 0.79 (+0.61%) [3] Semiconductor - Notable companies include North Huachuang (market cap: 244.42 billion), Cambricon Technologies (market cap: 295.23 billion), and Haiguang Information (market cap: 348.67 billion) with trading volumes of 18.49 million, 39.07 million, and 18.70 million respectively [3] - North Huachuang rose by 3.62 (+0.51%), Cambricon by 1.41 (+0.95%), and Haiguang by 6.61 (+1.47%) [3] Oil Industry - Major firms are Sinopec (market cap: 684.03 billion), PetroChina (market cap: 227.63 billion), and COSCO Shipping (market cap: 1456.85 billion) with trading volumes of 9.73 million, 5.80 million, and 11.59 million respectively [3] - Sinopec increased by 0.20 (+1.39%), while PetroChina and COSCO Shipping saw slight declines [3] Coal Industry - Key companies include China Shenhua (market cap: 186.24 billion), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical (market cap: 761.96 billion), and CATL (market cap: 1019.96 billion) with trading volumes of 8.12 million, 45.91 million, and 6.62 million respectively [3] - China Shenhua rose by 0.05 (+0.13%), Shaanxi Coal by 0.04 (+0.21%), and CATL by 0.13 (+0.06%) [3] Electricity Industry - Important players are China Yangtze Power (market cap: 713.98 billion), China Nuclear Power (market cap: 191.08 billion), and Long江电力 (market cap: 331.34 billion) with trading volumes of 24.27 million, 6.20 million, and 68.68 million respectively [4] - China Yangtze Power decreased by 0.32 (-1.08%), while the other two companies saw slight increases [4] Food and Beverage - Major companies include Citic Securities (market cap: 378.07 billion), Guotai Junan (market cap: 232.32 billion), and Haitian Flavoring (market cap: 304.47 billion) with trading volumes of 20.86 million, 9.80 million, and 4.73 million respectively [4] - Citic Securities rose by 0.43 (+1.71%), Guotai Junan by 0.04 (+0.23%), while Haitian Flavoring decreased by 0.14 (-0.33%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Key players are Industrial Fulian (market cap: 325.33 billion), Luxshare Precision (market cap: 373.55 billion), and Heng Rui Medicine (market cap: 230.54 billion) with trading volumes of 19.72 million, 18.50 million, and 43.26 million respectively [4] - Industrial Fulian decreased by 0.10 (-0.20%), while Luxshare and Heng Rui saw increases [4] Home Appliances - Notable companies include Gree Electric (market cap: 254.70 billion), Haier Smart Home (market cap: 235.70 billion), and Muyuan Foods (market cap: 216.98 billion) with trading volumes of 17.84 million, 9.91 million, and 10.41 million respectively [4] - Gree Electric decreased by 0.09 (-0.20%), while Haier and Muyuan saw slight increases [4] Logistics Industry - Key firms are Mindray Medical (market cap: 267.03 billion), Wanhua Chemical (market cap: 218.48 billion), and Guofeng Holdings (market cap: 172.87 billion) with trading volumes of 9.47 million, 13.83 million, and 14.65 million respectively [4] - Mindray Medical rose by 0.28 (+0.64%), while Wanhua and Guofeng saw slight increases [4] Communication Services - Major companies include China Unicom (market cap: 171.33 billion) and China Construction (market cap: 228.50 billion) with trading volumes of 25.07 million and 9.22 million respectively [4] - China Unicom increased by 0.02 (+0.36%), while China Construction rose by 0.30 (+1.72%) [4]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with insurance and liquor sectors rising, while banking and semiconductor sectors had varied results, and the power sector weakened [1][4]. Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of CNY 293.04 billion, CNY 931.09 billion, and CNY 319.74 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 557 million, CNY 1.019 billion, and CNY 389 million [3]. - China Pacific Insurance rose by 2.04%, Ping An by 0.83%, and China Life by 2.41% [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu had market capitalizations of CNY 1,950.62 billion, CNY 249.58 billion, and CNY 502.40 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.656 billion, CNY 506 million, and CNY 1.114 billion [3]. - Kweichow Moutai increased by 0.37%, Wuliangye by 0.24%, and Shanxi Xinghuacun by 0.57% [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of CNY 243.10 billion, CNY 292.64 billion, and CNY 346.81 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 979 million, CNY 2.570 billion, and CNY 1.077 billion [3]. - Northern Huachuang rose by 0.92%, while Cambricon Technologies fell by 0.37% and Haiguang Information increased by 0.41% [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 196.10 billion, CNY 284.33 billion, and CNY 1,095.37 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.165 billion, CNY 192 million, and CNY 285 million [3]. - BYD increased by 2.08%, Great Wall Motors by 1.46%, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway decreased by 0.34% [3]. Power Sector - China Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and China Power had market capitalizations of CNY 713.74 billion, CNY 191.08 billion, and CNY 332.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.589 billion, CNY 405 million, and CNY 4.380 billion [4]. - China Nuclear Power rose by 2.43%, while China Yangtze Power fell by 1.12% [4]. Other Sectors - Various sectors including food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals showed diverse performances with notable market capitalizations and trading volumes [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the industrial control and power equipment sectors, highlighting stable growth and potential for new growth curves driven by humanoid and AI technologies [1]. Core Insights - The industrial control and power equipment industry experienced a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 14% in Q1 2025, with total revenues reaching 204.7 billion and net profits at 14 billion [2][6]. - The overall gross profit margin for the industry faced pressure, recorded at 27.4% in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8 percentage points but an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [2][8]. - The report indicates a recovery in demand for industrial control in Q1 2025, with leading companies like Huichuan Technology exceeding profit expectations [2][26]. Summary by Sections Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control sector achieved a revenue of 28.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 27% increase year-on-year, with net profits rising by 33% to 2.5 billion [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for the industrial control sector was 28.3%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][8]. - Huichuan Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 38% and a net profit increase of 63% in Q1 2025 [2][26]. Power Equipment Sector - The power equipment sector's revenue for Q1 2025 was 118.8 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with net profits at 7.1 billion, reflecting a 6% increase [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for the power equipment sector was under pressure, with a slight decline in profitability observed [2][8]. - The report highlights that the high-voltage and ultra-high voltage segments are beginning to rebound, with revenue growth expected in the coming quarters [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - For the power grid sector, the report recommends companies such as Siyi Electric, Samsung Medical, and China West Electric, while suggesting a watch on companies like Huaming Equipment and Mingyang Electric [2][26]. - In the industrial control sector, recommended companies include Huichuan Technology, Hongfa Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control, with a focus on companies like Megmeet and Hechuan Technology for potential growth [2][26].

Group 1 - The article highlights the emergence of a trillion-dollar low-altitude economy in China, exemplified by innovative agricultural practices using drones in Xi'an [2][8] - The integration of industry and education is showcased through a collaborative research platform between universities and enterprises, enhancing research efficiency and technology transfer [4][5] - The establishment of a supportive policy environment has significantly improved the overall effectiveness of the innovation system, facilitating breakthroughs in various sectors [6] Group 2 - The article discusses the role of funding in revitalizing dormant scientific research, with specific examples of companies achieving domestic production capabilities in magnetic materials [8][9] - The establishment of a drone test flight base in Xi'an has attracted multiple companies and is expanding low-altitude application scenarios, including logistics and inspection services [9][10] - The region has successfully attracted 37 companies in the intelligent connected vehicle industry, contributing to a projected total output value of over 4 billion yuan in 2024 [10]

Group 1 - The company plans to repurchase its shares using its own funds, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 5 billion and RMB 10 billion, and a maximum repurchase price of RMB 34.13 per share [2][3] - The repurchase period is set from April 14, 2025, to April 13, 2026, following the board's approval [2] - As of April 29, 2025, the company has repurchased 4,492,600 shares, accounting for 0.056% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 99.92 million [3] Group 2 - The chairman of the company, Shan Shewu, has resigned due to work changes, and the vice chairman, Zheng Zongqiang, will act as the chairman until a new chairman is elected [6][7] - Shan Shewu's tenure was marked by significant contributions to technological innovation and operational performance, leading to new breakthroughs for the company [7]

海上风电迎来密集开工，英联股份持续拓宽复合集流体合作版图 光伏：硅料价格继续下跌，成交价环比下降 2.6~2.7%。根据硅料分会报道， 随着 5、6 月下游排产开始下调，本周硅料价格继续下跌。n 型复投料成交价 格区间为 3.70-4.50 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.92 万元/吨，环比下降 2.73%；n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 3.60-3.80 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.70 万元/吨，环比 下降 2.63%；p 型多晶硅成交价格区间为 3.10-3.50 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.23 万元/吨，环比下降 2.12%。目前预计 5 月硅料排产在 10 万吨左右，关注后 续降排产情况。核心关注两大方向：1）供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价格 弹性更大的硅料和玻璃，核心关注协鑫科技、通威股份、福莱特等。2）新技 术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：海上风电迎来密集开工。包括华能山东半岛北 L 场址海上风电项 目、浙江舟山普陀 2#海上风电场项目开工、瑞安 2 号 600MW。风电板块， 关注海缆：东方电缆、中天科技、亨通光电、起帆电缆，桩基：天顺风能、海 力风电、大金 ...

电力设备 海上风电迎来密集开工，英联股份持续拓宽复合集流体合作版图 光伏：硅料价格继续下跌，成交价环比下降 2.6~2.7%。根据硅料分会报道， 随着 5、6 月下游排产开始下调，本周硅料价格继续下跌。n 型复投料成交价 格区间为 3.70-4.50 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.92 万元/吨，环比下降 2.73%；n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 3.60-3.80 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.70 万元/吨，环比 下降 2.63%；p 型多晶硅成交价格区间为 3.10-3.50 万元/吨，成交均价为 3.23 万元/吨，环比下降 2.12%。目前预计 5 月硅料排产在 10 万吨左右，关注后 续降排产情况。核心关注两大方向：1）供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价格 弹性更大的硅料和玻璃，核心关注协鑫科技、通威股份、福莱特等。2）新技 术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：海上风电迎来密集开工。包括华能山东半岛北 L 场址海上风电项 目、浙江舟山普陀 2#海上风电场项目开工、瑞安 2 号 600MW。风电板块， 关注海缆：东方电缆、中天科技、亨通光电、起帆电缆，桩基：天顺风能、海 力 ...

在手订单充足，2025 年营收目标稳健 | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | --- | 公司点评 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 国电南瑞 沪深300 分析师：张志邦 国电南瑞（600406） | 报告日期： | 2025-05-03 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 22.15 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 30.44/21.31 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本（百万股） | 8,032 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 7,996 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.55 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,779 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,771 | 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：郑洋 执业证书号：S0010524110003 邮箱：zhengyang@hazq.com 主要观点： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of electricity supply in China, highlighting the transition from a time of frequent power outages to a modern society with stable electricity access, particularly in rural areas [1][21]. Historical Development - The history of electricity in China dates back to 1879 when Shanghai lit the first electric lamp, establishing a foundation for the country's power development [1]. - Large-scale construction of the national power grid began after the establishment of the People's Republic of China, with significant projects like the 506 transmission line from the Fuling Hydropower Station to Lishizhai, spanning 370 kilometers [2][4]. Challenges in Early Development - The construction faced numerous challenges, including a lack of experience and manpower, requiring workers to rely on manual labor for tasks such as erecting towers and laying cables [4][6]. - The first 220 kV transmission line was completed in 1954, but rural electrification was not prioritized until after the economic reforms [6][8]. Rural Electrification - Initially, rural electrification only met basic lighting needs, with limited power supply and high costs based on the number of light bulbs [8][9]. - By 1997, Hunan Province achieved "village electrification," and by 2006, "household electrification" was completed, although some remote areas still relied on candles and kerosene lamps [13]. Modern Power Generation - China's power generation primarily relies on thermal power, which poses environmental challenges and high costs due to coal transportation [15]. - The government has shifted focus to clean energy sources like hydropower, with significant projects such as the Three Gorges Dam, capable of generating 70 million kilowatt-hours during peak water levels [17]. Infrastructure Investment - Between 1998 and 2004, over 210 billion RMB was invested to ensure stable electricity for 150 million farmers, marking a significant improvement in rural power supply [17]. - Ongoing upgrades to power towers and infrastructure are crucial for maintaining stability against extreme weather events [17]. Recent Challenges - Despite advancements, incidents like the 2022 power restrictions in Sichuan, caused by extreme weather and over-reliance on hydropower, highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in the electricity supply system [21][23]. - The article emphasizes that while the frequency of power outages has decreased, challenges remain to ensure that power supply becomes consistently reliable across all regions [21][23].