Core Viewpoint - Greentown China (03900.HK) achieved a contract sales area of approximately 2.29 million square meters and a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 80.3 billion for the first half of 2025, with the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group being approximately RMB 53.9 billion [1] Summary by Category - **Sales Performance** - The company recorded a contract sales area of about 2.29 million square meters [1] - The total contract sales amount reached approximately RMB 80.3 billion [1] - The equity amount attributable to Greentown Group was around RMB 53.9 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan real estate market shows significant recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by supportive policies and increased demand for new housing, with a notable rise in sales and market activity [1][6][7]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Wuhan's total signed sales area for commercial housing reached 6.1539 million square meters, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year, with new housing sales area at 5.0697 million square meters, up 30.6% [3][4]. - The average de-stocking cycle for new housing has decreased to 12 months, while the second-hand housing signed transaction area was 5.3337 million square meters, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year increase [3]. Policy Impact - The introduction of the "Han Nine Articles" on April 30 has enhanced support for housing consumption, including expanded subsidies for multi-child families and increased financial assistance [4][6]. - The Spring Home Buying Festival during the May Day holiday attracted significant participation from various sectors, further stimulating market activity [5]. Market Dynamics - The new housing sales in June reached a monthly high, with a total of 21,551 units sold, marking a 30.9% month-on-month increase and a 26.3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The average de-stocking rate for newly launched projects has improved significantly, with some projects achieving a de-stocking rate of over 70%, particularly in the central urban areas [8]. Inventory Management - The government is actively addressing inventory pressure in the outskirts while promoting the sale of new housing and the conversion of existing stock through various financial support mechanisms [10][11]. - Approximately 30% of new housing transactions in the first half of the year were related to various forms of affordable housing and stock management initiatives [11]. Land Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, 28 residential land parcels were sold, totaling 2.1944 million square meters, with a transaction value of 11.407 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in both volume and value compared to the previous year [14]. - The average premium rate for land sales has increased dramatically, with some parcels experiencing competitive bidding and high premium rates, indicating strong market interest [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the real estate market is returning to a downward trend, with sales expected to decline without new policies, projecting a decrease in sales revenue by 5.8% and sales area by 3.6% for 2025 [2][3][90] - The report highlights that the current inventory supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, with an estimated 14% of excess idle land potentially being absorbed if all recovery plans are implemented [3][82] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, particularly focusing on inventory reduction strategies such as land recovery and urban village renovations [10][12][13] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that companies with strong land acquisition capabilities, high-quality land reserves, and strong product offerings are likely to stand out during the market bottoming process, recommending firms like China Jinmao, China Resources Land, and Greentown China [4][8] - The report anticipates a continued decline in real estate investment, projecting a decrease of 9.3% for 2025, driven by both construction and land acquisition costs [91] - The report notes that the new housing regulations aim to improve the quality of residential buildings, which is expected to positively impact demand for high-quality housing in the long term [17][70] Group 3 - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes in first-tier cities has shown some resilience, with cumulative transaction areas in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases [22][34] - The report outlines that the overall housing market is under pressure, with new home prices showing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in the first five months of 2025, while second-hand home prices have decreased by 6.3% [45][53] - The land market is experiencing a divergence, with land prices in high-tier cities increasing significantly, while lower-tier cities are seeing a decline in land transaction volumes [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - High-end residential properties have transformed from material luxury to spiritual resonance, with core competitiveness built on four dimensions: scarce resources, spatial scene reconstruction, community services shaping identity recognition, and cultural technology empowering product premium [2]. Group 1: Scarcity of Resources - The core of high-end projects lies in strategically occupying non-renewable resources, creating competitive barriers through prime urban locations or irreplaceable natural landscapes [4]. - Urban core areas leverage transportation networks and quality amenities to achieve efficient land use and resource absorption, while natural landscapes create aesthetic and spiritual scarcity [4]. - For example, Guangzhou Poly Tianyi occupies three of the eight residential land parcels released in the Pazhou South area over 14 years, highlighting the scarcity of core CBD low-density residential land [4]. Group 2: Spatial Innovation - High-end residential product innovation has shifted from merely expanding area to deeply exploring scene value, focusing on spatial functionality and scene extensibility [8]. - The concept of "flat villa" integrates multi-functional spaces into single-layer large flat residences, enhancing living experiences [9]. - For instance, Chengdu Huafa Jincheng's approximately 320㎡ unit features a dedicated entrance leading to a scenic courtyard, creating a super social space for family gatherings and interactions [9]. Group 3: Community Services - High-end clubs have evolved beyond basic amenities to become symbols of identity and platforms for resource interaction among owners [22]. - For example, Guangzhou Pazhou Yuyue Club offers exclusive services for 96 households, including a private dining room and a temperature-controlled swimming pool, enhancing community engagement [23]. - Shanghai Yuexiu Bund Yuyue features a three-tier club system tailored to high-net-worth individuals, addressing their social and personal needs [27]. Group 4: Cultural and Artistic Empowerment - Cultural translation and artistic empowerment have become essential paths for residential products to break through homogenization and build differentiated moats [34]. - Cultural translation involves systematically deconstructing and modernizing local historical contexts and natural textures, integrating traditional architectural aesthetics into modern designs [34]. - For example, Beijing Heyue Wangyun incorporates historical elements from the Haidian area into modern residential aesthetics, creating a unique living experience [41]. - Artistic empowerment introduces innovative forms such as installation art and digital media, enhancing emotional value and social interaction within residential spaces [49].

Market Overview - The US 90-day exemption period is ending this week, leading to ongoing market focus on US tariff negotiations [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83 points, with a total turnover of HKD 193.79 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% to 5,229.56 points, indicating mixed performance across indices [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip stocks, rising 3.85% to HKD 18.32, contributing 2.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's June gaming revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included China Resources Land (01109) up 3.45% and Ideal Automotive (02015) up 2.8% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin concept is gaining traction, with companies like Guotai Junan International (01788) rising 10.77% [3] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is set to take effect on August 1, with limited licenses expected to be issued [3] Beverage Sector - Tea beverage stocks surged, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 11.04% amid a competitive delivery market [4] - The delivery battle between Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted tea beverage consumption [4] Real Estate Sector - The housing market is under scrutiny, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and activating demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the third quarter will be crucial for policy direction affecting the real estate market [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 2.38% and overall positive sentiment in the Macau gaming market [6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in Macau's July gaming revenue [6] Power Sector - Power stocks saw a general increase, driven by record electricity demand due to high temperatures [7] - The maximum national electricity load reached 14.65 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year increase [7] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.96% as gold prices fell below USD 3,310 per ounce [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts [7] Notable Stock Movements - H&H International Holdings (01112) issued a profit warning, falling 7.14% [8] - Jihong Co. (02603) saw a significant rise of 11.62%, with projected net profit growth of 97.25% to 108.21% for the first half of 2025 [9] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, reflecting strong growth potential compared to industry peers [10] - FWD Group (01828) debuted on the market, closing up 1.05% with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 29.53 billion [11]

利好政策预期突然引爆。 7月7日早盘，A股、港股房地产板块突然爆发，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股最高大涨超 11%，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展强势涨停。消息面上，住建部调研组近日赴广东、浙江两省调 研时指出，要多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 有分析指出，从市场表现来看，6月份重点城市新房及二手房销售环比均实现增长，但同比仍有所下滑，政策 支持力度有望持续加码，7月楼市或延续弱复苏走势。结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏 有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 华泰证券指出，6月13日，国常会提出要"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，释放出强烈的政策发力信号。 结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 集体大涨 7月7日早盘，港股内房股集体走高，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股也一度涨超11%，融创中 国、华润置地、新城发展、绿城中国等地产股纷纷上涨。 与此同时，A股房地产板块亦多数走强，截至收盘，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展涨停，海泰发展 涨超 ...

Group 1 - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) has aggressively acquired land in Shandong, securing four significant plots in just four months, indicating a strong commitment to the region [6] - The recent acquisitions include prime locations in Jinan and Qingdao, with a focus on both high-end and affordable housing markets, showcasing COLI's strategy to maintain a diverse portfolio [6] - The company achieved the highest sales revenue and sales area in Shandong for the first half of the year, reflecting its strong brand power and product quality [7][8] Group 2 - The recent land acquisition at Jinan's Jinan Steel site is strategically located in the eastern part of the city, which is expected to attract a significant population due to its proximity to employment centers [12] - The Jinan Steel area is characterized by low-density development, which is anticipated to enhance property value retention and comfort for residents [12] - Infrastructure developments, including the new metro line and parks, are already in place, providing a solid foundation for future residential projects [12]

其 他 报 告 2025年07月07日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3472 | 0.32 | 1.91 | | 深证成份指数 | 10509 | -0.25 | 3.73 | | 沪深300指数 | 3982 | 0.36 | 1.95 | | 创业板指数 | 2156 | -0.36 | 5.69 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | 0.04 | 0.02 | | 上证基金指数 | 6942 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23916 | -0.64 | 3.20 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8609 | -0.45 | 2.76 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22548 | -0.73 | 2.42 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44829 | 0.77 | 3.82 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: China Property Key Points on Sales Performance - Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by **21% YoY** in June 2025, worsening from **-10% in May 2025** due to: 1. Higher base in June 2024 from policy easing in mid-May 2024 2. Lack of policy easing support [2][6] - On a **MoM basis**, contract sales increased by **17%**, lower than the average **30%** from 2020 to 2024 [2][7] - In the first half of 2025, combined sales for top 100 developers fell by **11% YoY**, compared to **-8% YoY** in May 2025 [2][6] Performance of Luxury Projects - Demand for luxury projects remained strong, exemplified by Sunac's Shanghai One Central Park selling out in **2 hours**, significantly boosting Sunac's contract sales in June 2025 [2][6] Regional Developer Performance - Regional developers (e.g., Jinmao, C&D International, Yuexiu Property, Greentown China) outperformed the sector average, focusing on tier 1 and core tier 2 cities, benefiting from resilient luxury demand [2][6] Future Outlook - Expectations for top 100 contract sales to improve YoY in **3Q25** due to a lower base effect [2][6] Secondary Market Insights - As of June 25, 2025, secondary listings in **50 cities** increased by **9.5% YoY** and **8.6% YTD**; Tier-1 cities saw a **4.4% YoY** and **5.3% YTD** increase [3][9] - Secondary transaction volume for **12 cities** increased by **4% YoY** on a 30-day moving average, down from **7% in May 2025** [3][9] Implications for Property Listings - The rise in secondary listings is attributed to: 1. Slowing secondary transactions 2. Upgraders selling existing homes to purchase luxury new homes [3][9] Developer Performance Comparison - SOE developers' contract sales in June declined by **23% YoY**, similar to the **21% YoY** decline of top 100 developers; semi-SOE and POE developers saw declines of **33%** and **11%** respectively [4][25] - Current market shares: SOE developers at **58%**, POE developers at **31%** [4][25] Sales Data Highlights - Top 100 developers' combined gross contract sales value dropped by **21% YoY** in June, compared to **-10% YoY** in May [18][20] - The combined attributable contract sales GFA decreased by **35% YoY** in June, worsening from **-20% YoY** in May [13][20] Risks and Opportunities Downside Risks - Government policies restricting demand and mortgage lending - Tight financing conditions for developers - Lower-than-expected residential growth in China's economy [31] Upside Risks - Potential policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and prices - Large-scale asset disposals at fair prices by developers to ease liquidity pressures [31]

中信建投｜周期红利周周谈 摘要 Q&A • 房地产市场呈现复苏迹象，二手房成交量显著增长，重点城市 1-2 月同比 增长约 30%，创三年新高，上海和深圳表现尤为突出，议价空间收窄，表 明市场信心正在恢复。 • 房地产政策稳中求进，精准滴灌，优化土地供给，一二线城市优质地块溢 价率创 2022 年以来新高；专项债用于闲置土地收储，规模预计达 5,000 亿 以上；城市更新加速，多项政策推动需求。 • 房地产企业风险下降，万科通过积极偿债降低风险，新兴城市房地产资产 重估带动开发商表现，房地产板块整体估值有望提高，投资机会显现。 • 建筑业 PMI 受春节影响波动，复工复产后回升，但整体复苏偏弱，关注两 会财政政策，去年中央谷地发放 5,000 亿元，可能用于土储专项债等领域， 财政力度将决定建筑行业整体情况。 • 钾肥价格有望上涨，全球供需收紧，新增产能有限，俄罗斯与白俄罗斯限 产，需求端持续增长，供需缺口显著，A 股上市公司亚钾国际弹性最大， 成长潜力良好。 • 动力煤价格下跌增加火电度电利润，但火电整体弹性下降，建议关注年度 长协签约较好的区域，如上海、安徽等地的一些火电公司，包括南方电网、 申能股份和上 ...