周期中报预告有何亮点？20250720 摘要 白云机场二季度盈利 4.5 亿元，扣非净利润与一季度持平；海航二季度 小幅亏损，但中期预计盈利；国货行中期归母净利润预计同比增长 78%-90%，主要受益于机队扩充和航油价格下跌。 锦江航运上半年归母净利润同比大幅增长 146%-155%，得益于东南亚 转口贸易需求提升和新增运力投入；安通控股上半年归母净利润同比大 幅增长 218%-250%，受益于内贸集运运力调整至外贸。 极兔速递东南亚包裹量同比增长 66%，中国区包裹量同比增长 14.7%，受益于 TikTok 电商业务强劲增长；顺丰 6 月业务量增速达 32%，申通以微弱优势反超韵达，营业收入也超过韵达。 航旅纵横 APP 上线民航官方直销平台，整合多家航空公司直销机票资源， 减少 OTA 平台影响，提高航空公司售票效率，有利于民航行业发展。 化工行业二季度开工率降至 71.9%，为历史低位；国家重新定义石化化 工行业老旧装置标准，可能对老旧产能占比较高的行业产生影响。 TDI 市场供给收缩明显，价格迅速上涨，但中长期来看，涨价持续性有 待观察；高速树脂市场需求旺盛，上半年订单供不应求，推荐东材科技 和胜骏 ...

Summary of TDI Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The TDI market is currently experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics globally, with significant impacts from production disruptions in Europe and varying demand across regions [1][13][21]. Key Points European TDI Market - A production incident at Covestro has affected half of the European TDI capacity, which totals 600,000 tons, primarily from Covestro in Germany and Wanhua in Hungary [1][3]. - The expected recovery time for the affected facility is approximately one month, with a repair period of 3 to 4 weeks followed by testing [2]. - The incident may lead to a supply shortage in Europe, increasing the need for imports [1]. U.S. TDI Market - The U.S. TDI market is performing well, with a total capacity of 390,000 tons from Covestro and BASF, maintaining an operating rate of around 90% [1][5]. - Demand is primarily driven by the furniture and automotive sectors, with a focus on domestic self-sufficiency [6]. Asian TDI Market - Asia is a major TDI production region, with high operating rates in South Korea, although Hanwha faces cost pressures [1][7]. - Japan's Mitsui Chemicals has reduced its capacity from 120,000 tons to 50,000 tons, focusing on domestic needs and reducing exports [8]. - Saudi Arabia's TDI production is stable but of lower quality, while India and Iran have smaller capacities with varying operational stability [9][10]. Chinese TDI Market - China's TDI capacity is concentrated in Wanhua and Shanghai Covestro, with significant expansions planned for 2025 [10]. - Domestic operating rates are generally above 80%, with some facilities scheduled for maintenance [11][12]. Demand and Pricing Trends - Domestic TDI demand is expected to slightly increase to 970,000-980,000 tons in 2025, influenced by the furniture and automotive industries [4][18]. - Recent price increases have seen TDI prices rise from approximately 10,000 yuan to between 15,000 and 16,000 yuan per ton, driven by traders rather than direct factory pricing [21]. - Export demand has surged, increasing by over 80% year-on-year, with low inventory levels across the supply chain [23][24]. Future Market Outlook - The global TDI market is expected to remain tight, with new capacity largely dependent on leading companies like Wanhua, facing high marginal costs that may delay new projects [13][14]. - The overall inventory level is low, with upstream and downstream inventories at reduced levels due to previous market conditions [24]. - Future price trends are anticipated to continue rising, influenced by external market conditions and potential supply disruptions [21][22]. Additional Insights - The furniture sector, accounting for 40% of TDI demand, has seen a 20% increase in retail sales, although overall growth is tempered by a decline in exports [18]. - The automotive sector's TDI demand has increased due to higher production rates, while other sectors like coatings and elastomers show stable demand [18][19]. - There is a lack of specialized data tracking for soft furniture that uses TDI, complicating market analysis [20]. This summary encapsulates the current state and future outlook of the TDI market, highlighting key regional dynamics, demand trends, and pricing movements.

1、据中国招标投标公共服务平台7月18日发布的《机器人设备采购项目中标公示》显示，优必选科技中 标觅亿(上海)汽车科技有限公司9051.15万元机器人设备采购项目，这是目前全球人形机器人企业中标金 额最大的采购订单。据悉，优必选在7月17日发布了全球首个会自主换电的人形机器人Walker S2，并计 划今年交付500台工业人形机器人投入到智能制造产业。优必选也于7月13日官宣面向科研教育的天工行 者机器人已收获百台订单，今年预计交付将超300台。 点评：2025年有望成为人形机器人开启从0到1阶段的关键时点，尤其是随着宇树、智元等行业头部公司 加速推进零部件性能升级和成本降低，人形机器人产业发展趋势愈发明朗，2025年有望成为行业爆发起 点。具身智能作为人工智能的重要分支，正逐步走向产业应用，推动专用机器人向通用机器人发展。随 着AI大模型加速驱动及科技公司研发积极推动，具身智能市场规模加速打开。预计未来五年，具身智 能的市场规模将持续增长，有望在2026年突破万亿规模。概念股包括东土科技、汉宇集团、汉威科技 等。 2、中国地质大学(武汉)联合内蒙古地调院在白云鄂博矿区发现新稀土矿物'钕黄河矿'，具有钕高富集 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on the market's ability to continue breaking through, driven by strong risk appetite and multiple signals supporting market upward momentum [8][9][10] - Key sectors showing strong performance include construction materials, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and household appliances, with high-growth sectors identified as media, agriculture, construction materials, transportation, and non-bank financials [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of the TMT sector, particularly AI hardware and gaming, as significant drivers of market interest and investment [8][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the potential of the low-altitude economy, with significant developments in eVTOL aircraft and related infrastructure, supported by government policies and local initiatives [53][54] - Companies like Xiaopeng Heavens and Times Technology are noted for their recent financing and order achievements, indicating strong market interest and growth potential in the low-altitude sector [53][54] - The report suggests that the low-altitude economy is experiencing a comprehensive rollout from macro to micro levels, with various applications being tested and developed [53][54] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with slowing retail sales growth, particularly in the restaurant and alcohol segments, due to external factors such as subsidy controls and strict regulations [56] - Despite the pressures, there are opportunities for investment in leading liquor companies as valuations have reached low points, suggesting potential for recovery in the second half of the year [56] - The report indicates that the overall consumer demand needs to be stimulated, with a focus on the clearing of livestock and new demand drivers [56]

Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry is undergoing a transformation due to intensified competition and structural overcapacity, leading to a shift from traditional, unprofitable sectors to innovative high polymer materials, driven by new applications in low-altitude economy, robotics, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and renewable energy [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry is transitioning from "scale-based competition" to "technology-based competition," emphasizing breakthroughs in new material technologies and structures [1]. - China's dominance in the global chemical sector is increasing, attracting multinational companies to establish innovation and R&D centers in the country due to its vast market, complete industrial chain, and stable political environment [1]. Group 2: Event Overview - The 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference and "New Plastic Award" will be held from September 10-12, 2025, in Hefei, Anhui, focusing on the theme "The Rise of China's Emerging Industries Leading the Next Decade of Polymers" [2]. - The event will feature three main components: thematic industry conferences, innovation exhibitions, and the New Plastic Award ceremony, along with specialized sessions for terminal connections, international cooperation, and project roadshows [2]. Group 3: Conference Highlights - Over 600 global corporate leaders and top scientists will participate, fostering collaboration and exchange [3]. - More than 50 overseas associations and foreign enterprises will gather to support companies in international expansion [3]. - The event will include participation from over 100 end-users from emerging industries such as electric vehicles and robotics, facilitating direct connections for material application needs [3]. - A CEO strategic seminar will feature discussions on the future of polymer materials with government officials, academicians, and industry leaders [3]. Group 4: Forum Topics - The conference will cover various topics, including industry development, market analysis, investment and financing, and AI empowerment in polymer materials [5][8]. - Specific forums will focus on high-performance engineering plastics, new additives, and the development of sustainable plastics [9][12][13]. Group 5: Innovation and Collaboration - The event will emphasize the importance of AI in enhancing material development processes and fostering interdisciplinary research [21]. - International cooperation sessions will explore opportunities for Chinese companies to expand globally and attract foreign investment in the chemical materials sector [22].

【DT新材料】 获悉， 近日， 东粤化学 20 万吨/年混合废塑料资源化综合利用示范性项目试生产成功，受到全球废塑料回收行业极大关注，刷屏内 网。 之所以如此震动，是因为： （1）体量大 。年废塑料处理量高达20万吨，实现了从"废塑料→循环化工原料→循环高端材料"的绿色化工产业链条，并且可复制推广，号称 全球首 套和首创 。 （2）收率高 。项目采用"一步法"深度催化裂解技术（CPDCC），可将废塑料直接转为裂解气、液化气、轻质油等，较传统的废塑料化学两步法（废 塑料-热解油-气）的收率大大提高。 先不评价项目本身， 最重 要因素应该是：高分子循环再利用，已经毫无疑问成为当下化工产业的"顶流"。 在国内，除 东奥化学 外， 中石化、万华化学、航天石化、金发科技、英科再生、奇美实业、科茂环境、恒誉环保、佳人新材料、格林循环、海尔再循 环 等也已经在纷纷布局。 在国外，热度也同样高，比如隔壁的日本。 之前分析过《日本化工巨头大"撤退"》，DT新材料报道过日本化工巨头第一个集体大动向是布局 生物基化学品和材料 ，其投入力度还真不输走在前列的 欧洲化工巨头。而说到他们集体围观的第二个热门化工赛道，那必须就是这个" 高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a reversal in prosperity driven by anti-involution measures, with significant opportunities arising from supply-side reforms and the optimization of competitive structures [4][30] - The current economic environment, including the exit of European chemical capacities and the slowdown of new capacities in China, is likely to accelerate the restructuring of the domestic chemical industry [4] - Key sectors to focus on include polyurethane, private refining, low-carbon olefins, coal chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, and chromium salts [4][5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 5.4% over the last month, 12.0% over the last three months, and 22.8% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights four major investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion with companies like Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [4] 2. Improved prosperity in sectors such as chromium salts and phosphorus ores [5] 3. New materials with high growth potential and low domestic production rates [6] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6] Key Price Movements - Notable price increases include TDI at 15,500 CNY/ton (+23.02% week-on-week) and DMC at 3,900 CNY/ton (+5.41% week-on-week) [8] - The report also tracks various chemical prices, indicating a general upward trend in key products [8][9] Company Tracking - Specific companies are highlighted for their performance and potential, including: - Wanhua Chemical: MDI price stable at 16,700 CNY/ton [9] - Hengli Petrochemical: Polyester filament inventory increased to 26.5 days [12] - Yuntianhua: Phosphate prices stable at 1,038 CNY/ton [13] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand and a continued rise in the prosperity of certain sectors, particularly those with supply constraints [30]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·基础化工 基础化工行业点评报告 科思创德国工厂发生火灾，TDI 价格快速上 升，或带动 MDI 价格提升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 证券分析师 陈淑娴 执业证书：S0600523020004 chensx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 周少玟 执业证书：S0600525070005 zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 基础化工 沪深300 免责声明 东吴证券股份有限公司经中国证券监督管理委员会批准，已具备证券投资咨询业务资格。 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 事件：2025 年 7 月 16 日，科思创宣布其 TDA/TDI、基于 OTDA 的产 品、聚醚多元醇产品遭遇不可抗力，影响 TDI 产能 30 万吨/年、氯气产 能 48 万吨/年等。缺失的氯气在短期内 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry's stable growth plan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the chemical industry on the supply side [4][30] - The TDI market price has risen sharply due to supply disruptions caused by an incident at a production facility in Germany [4][24] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and concentrated new capacity over the past four years, but the upcoming stable growth plans may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and recovery of product profitability [30] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69% this week, with 302 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 0.27% this week [20] Key Products Tracking - The TDI market price increased to an average of 14,063 CNY/ton, up 17.06% from the previous week [24] - The glyphosate market is showing strong performance with prices continuing to rise, averaging 25,901 CNY/ton [55] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in various sub-sectors [6][30] - Beneficiary stocks include Cangzhou Dahua and others that may benefit from the current market conditions [25][31]