Group 1 - The top short-selling ratios are led by AIA Group (81299) and JD Health (86618) at 100.00%, followed by Baidu Group (89888) at 95.46% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Pop Mart (09992) at 1.3 billion, Alibaba (09988) at 1.26 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) at 1.064 billion [1][2] - The highest deviation values are for Baidu Group (89888) at 62.11%, Shenzhen Expressway (00548) at 37.02%, and SenseTime (80020) at 34.65% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include AIA Group (81299) at 100.00%, JD Health (86618) at 100.00%, and Baidu Group (89888) at 95.46% [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts show Pop Mart (09992) leading with 1.3 billion, followed by Alibaba (09988) with 1.26 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) with 1.064 billion [2] - The top ten deviation values highlight Baidu Group (89888) at 62.11%, Shenzhen Expressway (00548) at 37.02%, and SenseTime (80020) at 34.65% [2]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 投资建议：短期重视春节旺季子板块，2026 年看好新服务&新零售 考虑到临近春节旺季，我们建议重视旺季有业绩弹性的子板块，主要包括 免税、部分景区、商超、黄金珠宝等，以及作为春晚四大分会场之一的义 乌（小商品城）；免税和出行链近期基本面环比改善，建议后续持续观察和 验证。此外，当前市场关注 AI 应用落地情况，AI 赋能电商营销潜力大。 展望 2026 年，我们建议：1）对内，在政策持续加码的背景下，看好服 务消费和商品消费两大方向，重视顺周期属性较强的免税和出行链（景区 酒店餐饮文旅等）、估值性价比较高的黄金珠宝板块和名创优品，以及市 场预期偏低但基本面有改善机会的调改主线。2）对外，建议继续优选出 海龙头，平台与品牌均有机会，既有出口高景气β保障成长和 AI 应用提 效空间，也有品牌强势高增和部分清库尾声的反转机会。 综上推荐小商品城、中国中免、华住集团、首旅酒店、锦江酒店、潮宏基、 九华旅游、若羽臣、青木科技、名创优品、永辉超市，关注三峡旅游、陕 西旅游、菜百股份、老铺黄金、君亭酒店、古茗、小菜园、百胜中国、海 底捞 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.58% to close at 49,098.71 points, while the S&P 500 index rose by 0.03% to 6,915.61 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.28% to 23,501.24 points [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.53%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq saw a minor decline of 0.06% [3] Sector Performance - **Technology Sector**: Major tech stocks mostly rose, with the Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index increasing by 1.05%. Notable gains included Microsoft up by 3.34%, Nvidia up by 1.60%, Facebook up by 1.78%, Amazon up by 2.08%, while Apple fell by 0.11% and Google decreased by 0.76% [3] - **Chinese Stocks**: The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.26%, and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index dropped by 0.19%. Among popular Chinese stocks, Tencent Music rose by 4.74%, and other notable increases included YamaFan Sports up by 3.43% and New Oriental up by 2.20% [3] - **Semiconductor Stocks**: Most semiconductor stocks declined, with Intel experiencing a significant drop of 17.02%. Other notable movements included AMD up by 2.37% and TSMC up by 2.29% [4][7] - **Financial Sector**: Financial stocks fell across the board, with Goldman Sachs down by 3.73% and Morgan Stanley down by 2.23% [4] - **Energy Sector**: Energy stocks mostly rose, with Occidental Petroleum up by 2.18% and ConocoPhillips up by 1.53% [5] - **Aerospace Sector**: Aerospace stocks showed mixed results, with Boeing up by 0.29% while Southwest Airlines fell by 1.13% [6] Commodity Prices - **Oil Prices**: International oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.71 to $61.07 per barrel, a gain of 2.88%, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.82 to $65.88 per barrel, a rise of 2.84% [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures rose by 1.42% to $4,983.10 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 8.44%. Silver futures surged by 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce, marking a significant weekly rise of 16.63% [7] Currency Market - The US Dollar Index fell by 0.78%, closing at 97.593 against a basket of six major currencies [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with some players struggling while others thrive through innovation in operations and business models, emphasizing efficiency and cash flow health over mere expansion [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The economic hotel segment is shrinking, with brands like Pudding Hotel and Wan Feng exiting the market, while leading players like Huazhu and Atour are leveraging "stay + retail" and AI technology to enhance their operations [1][3]. - The focus has shifted from opening new locations to improving operational efficiency and innovating business models, as the era of aggressive expansion is over [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - The hotel industry is capital-intensive, with long payback periods, particularly for mid-range hotels, which now have a return cycle extending to 5-6 years, compounded by tightening financing conditions [3][4]. - Many innovative ideas are hindered by a lack of funding, as hotels face significant financial pressure [3][4]. Group 3: Digital Hotel Solutions - A new digital hotel solution has emerged, aiming to tokenize future revenue rights of hotels into digital equity, allowing public investors to purchase these rights [4][6]. - For example, a hotel with 300 rooms can issue 20,000 digital rights at 2,000 yuan each, generating 40 million yuan in cash without incurring debt, effectively "securitizing" future room revenues [6][7]. Group 4: Benefits of Digital Solutions - This approach provides quick capital for hotels, allowing them to bypass traditional financing routes and directly attract market investment [7][9]. - Tokenizing assets enhances liquidity, enabling holders to transfer rights in a compliant secondary market, thus unlocking the value of previously illiquid assets [7][9]. - The model fosters a win-win ecosystem where equity holders are also long-term customers, enhancing customer loyalty and trust through transparent digital technology [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the influx of funds from digital equity sales, hotels can further develop their "stay + retail" offerings, creating more sophisticated environments and products [9][10]. - The integration of AI with clear user profiles and blockchain data can lead to more precise service delivery and automated management of rights [9][10]. - The hotel industry is likely to evolve into a multifaceted value platform that combines investment, consumption, and brand experience, moving beyond traditional accommodation services [10].

马拉松赛事举办期间，当地城市的酒店价格"飞涨"的新闻早已见怪不怪。但这一次的主角，轮到了过去备受好评的无锡马拉松。 1月5日，2026无锡马拉松抽签结果正式公布。就在许多跑者庆幸自己在495635名跑者中脱颖而出获得参赛资格时，无锡当地酒店价格飞涨，成为了他们最 头疼的问题。甚至有不少中签的跑者表示，因为无锡酒店大涨价，即便是中签了也放弃了跑锡马的想法。 无锡酒店在锡马期间的涨价幅度是多少？体坛经济观察在某OTA平台以起跑点"隐秀路"为关键词搜索时，一如家酒店的平日价格为198元，到了3月21日晚 的价格为766元。值得一提的是，在锡马举办前后的几个周末，这家如家酒店的价格也仅为198元的价格，并没有发生任何变化。 从更大的范围来看，体坛经济观察在小红书平台上搜索发现，吐槽无锡当地酒店涨价的帖文并不是少数。"同一间房平时271元，锡马前一晚872元，涨了3 倍多……"有网友分享并晒出了无锡一酒店的价格日历图。 众多跑者的抱怨也引起了有关部门的积极响应。无锡市市场监管局、市文广旅游局在1月15日发布了《关于规范无锡马拉松期间酒店宾馆价格行为的告知 书》，对酒店宾馆经营行为作出明确要求。 对于不严格遵守规定的无锡 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Tourism and Hospitality - **Key Focus**: Anticipation of the longest Spring Festival holiday in history in 2026, leading to significant changes in travel patterns and increased demand for tourism services [1][1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Extended Holiday**: The 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) will feature a 9-day statutory holiday (February 15-23), with the potential for a "5-day leave for 15 days off" arrangement, resulting in a structural shift from "returning home for the New Year" to "family outings" and "global travel" [1][1] - **Market Expectations**: Anticipated market trends include simultaneous increases in volume and price, regional exchanges, and robust inbound and outbound travel [1][1] - **Recommendations**: Suggested investments in hotel chains (Huazhu, Atour, Shoulv), duty-free (China Duty Free), scenic spots (Three Gorges Tourism, Jiuhua Tourism, Hong Kong China Travel, Songcheng Performance), and online travel agencies (Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group) [1][1] Data Insights - **Long-Distance Travel Growth**: The China Tourism Research Institute predicts that long-distance travel orders during the 2026 Spring Festival will increase from 38% to 55%, generating over 80 billion yuan in new tourism consumption [2][2] - **Railway Predictions**: The National Railway Group forecasts 539 million passengers during the Spring Festival travel period (February 2 - March 13), a year-on-year increase of 5% [2][2] - **Aviation Forecasts**: CADAS predicts that airport passenger throughput will reach 18.387 million during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2][2] - **Ticket Booking Trends**: As of January 11, domestic flight bookings during the Spring Festival are up 8% year-on-year, while international flight searches have increased by 16.4% [2][2] - **Tour Group Data**: According to Zhongxin Tourism, outbound long-distance travel during the Spring Festival is expected to increase by 60% year-on-year, with short-distance outbound travel up by 160%, and domestic travel up by 300% [2][2] Hotel and Accommodation Insights - **Hotel Performance**: In 2025, the average occupancy rate during the Spring Festival was 49.7%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 266 yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year [3][3] - **RevPAR Expectations**: RevPAR for the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to see high single-digit growth year-on-year [3][3] Outbound Travel and Duty-Free Insights - **Outbound Travel Recovery**: Outbound travel during the Spring Festival is projected to recover to 110%-120% of 2019 levels, with a year-on-year increase of 15%-20% [3][3] - **Duty-Free Shopping Growth**: Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a total of 4.86 billion yuan in sales during the first month of the new policy, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3][3] Scenic Spot Insights - **Beneficiaries of Extended Holiday**: Scenic spots, especially long-distance travel destinations, are expected to benefit significantly from the extended holiday period [2][2] Policy Developments - **Visa Policies**: China has extended visa-free entry for 45 countries until December 31, 2026, and is trialing visa-free entry for Sweden [5][5] - **Local Consumption Coupons**: Various regions are issuing tourism consumption coupons to stimulate local economies, including Guangdong, Hubei, and Gansu, with significant funding allocated [5][6]

餐饮： 12月餐饮&酒店&旅游&免税&博彩 数据跟踪【东财新消费 | 社服】 酒店：#12月RevPAR增速环比有所回落。 ①正餐：海底捞/太二/呷哺/小菜园同店店效（单店月GMV，堂食，下同）同比-7%/-13%/-5%/-12%；其中海底捞翻 台率4.1次/天（#连续3个月回归4以上），同比-0.5，环比-0.1； ②快餐：肯德基/麦当劳/必胜客/塔斯汀同店店效分别-3%/-1%/-7%/-2%； ③茶咖：蜜雪/古茗/沪上阿姨/茶百道/霸王茶姬/喜茶同店店效分别+15%/+5%/+5%/-1%/-17%/+13%。 瑞幸/库迪/星巴克/幸运咖同店店效分别-3%/-2%/+1%/+17%，库迪、幸运咖及manner高速拓店。 免税：#12月海南离岛免税购物金额同比+17%，连续4个月正增（9-11月同比+3%/+13%/+27%）；人次-3%；客 单价+21%。 ①正餐：海底捞/太二/呷哺/小菜园同店店效（单店月GMV，堂食，下同）同比-7%/-13%/-5%/-12%；其中海底捞翻 台率4.1次/天（#连续3个月回归4以上），同比-0.5，环比-0.1； ②快餐：肯德基/麦当劳/必胜客/塔斯汀同店店效分别 ...

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing an upward trend driven by supply-demand dynamics and structural optimization, with a significant mismatch in supply and demand in 2023 due to a post-pandemic demand surge while supply lagged behind, leading to increased Average Daily Rates (ADR) [1][2] - The chain hotel rate in China is approximately 40%, lower than over 70% in the U.S., indicating potential for growth in the chain hotel segment, particularly in the economy sector [1][10] Key Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The pandemic caused a significant reduction in hotel supply, with recovery to pre-pandemic levels only occurring in 2023 and 2024. The mismatch in supply and demand has led to a notable increase in ADR, attracting single hotels back into the market, which disrupts the chain rate [2][4] - **Challenges Facing the Industry**: The hotel industry faces challenges such as oversupply, deteriorating operations, and intense competition. Single hotels are heavily reliant on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) for customer acquisition, facing high commission rates, while large chain hotels are reducing dependence on OTAs through proprietary channels [5][6][8] - **Investor Sentiment**: Despite low returns, investors are attracted to the hotel industry due to stable cash flows, reasonable payback periods (5-6 years, with some regions achieving 4 years), and opportunities for property transformation [5][9] Performance of Major Brands - **Huazhu Group**: The group operates approximately 11,000 to 12,000 stores, with improvements in RevPAR for its economy brands (Hanting, Haiyou) and mid-to-high-end brand (Quanjing) in Q4 2026. However, most other brands have not shown recovery, indicating that the recovery is not widespread across the industry [12][14] - **Investment Returns**: There are significant differences in returns when investing in different hotel brands. For instance, Quanjing has shown higher premiums compared to Jinjiang's Vienna brand, which has performed poorly [13] Future Trends and Recommendations - **Chain Rate Trends**: The chain rate is expected to continue growing, particularly in the luxury and mid-to-high-end segments, while the economy segment may see a decline due to the influx of single hotels [4][9] - **Impact of Policy Changes**: Upcoming policy changes, such as the potential expansion of holiday systems, are expected to positively impact travel and hotel demand, creating more opportunities for the industry [17] - **Recommendations for Investors**: Focus on large chain brands like Huazhu, which have shown strong growth potential. However, due to Huazhu not being available on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, investors are recommended to consider Shoulv, which is showing positive trends [18][19] Conclusion - The hotel industry is in a stabilization phase, with signs of recovery in select brands. However, the overall recovery is not expected to be uniform across the industry, and competition is likely to intensify as single hotels engage in price wars. Investors should prioritize large chain brands with strong growth momentum for future investments [20]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for Q4 2025 is reported at 4.5%, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. December retail sales growth is at 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and previous 1.3% [12][12] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4% and previous 2.6%. Real estate development investment has a cumulative decline of 17.2% compared to the previous 15.9% [12][12] - Industrial value-added growth for December is reported at 5.2%, exceeding the expected 4.9% and previous 4.8% [12][12] Key Changes in Economic Structure - Three significant changes are identified: improvement in service consumption, easing of the "crowding out effect" from debt reduction, and recovery in new economic sectors [12][12] - The shift in consumption policies from goods to services is noted, with service retail growth increasing while traditional retail indicators decline [12][12] - Investment slowdown is attributed to intensified corporate debt repayment policies, which ultimately benefit cash flow recovery for companies [12][12] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector shows a significant increase of 60.88% over the past six months, with a daily increase of 7.01% [1] - The digital media sector has seen a decline of 4.34% yesterday, with a 21.93% increase over the past month [1] - The hotel and catering industry has increased by 3.87% yesterday and 20.46% over the past six months, indicating resilience in service consumption [1] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from service consumption recovery and easing debt repayment pressures [12][12] - Companies in the PCB drilling needle industry are noted for their growth potential, driven by increasing demand in emerging markets [20][20] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow recovery and those positioned in high-growth sectors such as healthcare and technology [12][12][20]