编 辑丨卜羽勤 近日，中国各大航司相继公布2 0 2 4年年报，被戏称为"空中绿皮车"的春秋航空再度凭借"抠门经济学"一骑绝尘。 春秋航空年报显示，2 0 2 4年，该公司实现营收2 0 0 . 0亿元，同比增长11 . 5%；归母净利润2 2 . 7亿元，同比小幅增长 0 . 7%；扣非归母净利润2 2 . 5亿元，同比增长1 . 1%。 作 者丨 陈归辞 相比之下，三大航方面，中国国航、东方航空和南方航空2 0 2 4年虽营收有进，但均面临不同程度亏损，净亏损分别为 2 . 3 7亿元、4 2 . 2 6亿元和1 6 . 9 6亿元；民营航空方面，吉祥航空和华夏航空2 0 2 4年均实现盈利，净利润分别为9 . 1 4亿元 和2 . 6 8亿元。 但 值 得 注 意 的 是，作 为 " 最 赚 钱 的 航 司 "，春 秋 航 空 也 面 临 " 增 收 不 增 利 " 的 问 题，而 这 也 是 行 业 当 前 所 面 临 的 共 性 难 题 。 究其原因，一方面是量增推动收入增长的同时，公司全年客运收益同比回落；另一方面则是由于成本压力。 客运收益方面，2 0 2 4年，春秋航空国内航线的客公里收益为0 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a travel benefit initiative for passengers in the Tianshui area, allowing them to purchase combined train and flight tickets at a discount, significantly reducing travel costs [1][2] - The Lanzhou Airport has launched new flight routes in collaboration with several airlines, enhancing connectivity between Northwest China and coastal regions, as well as border areas [1][2] - Popular tourist routes from Lanzhou to destinations like Shenzhen and Guilin have seen increased flight frequency, providing more options for travelers during peak holiday periods [1][2] Group 2 - Key flight routes to major cities such as Harbin, Tianjin, and Guiyang have been restored, along with domestic routes within Gansu and Xinjiang, improving overall flight availability [2] - The upgrade of the "Air-Rail Intermodal" service at Lanzhou Airport allows for seamless transfers between air and rail travel, enhancing passenger convenience and efficiency [2] - Lanzhou Airport is positioned as a strategic hub in the "Belt and Road" initiative, aiming to transition from a "channel economy" to a high-quality "hub economy" [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of fund managers is on overseas warehouse businesses within the cross-border e-commerce sector, driven by high tariffs and the cancellation of small parcel exemptions, which provide cost advantages in customs clearance, logistics, and taxes [1][2][3] - The increasing support from high-level policies for the cross-border e-commerce industry encourages companies to diversify their foreign trade business, particularly in B2B segments, which is seen as a significant opportunity for public funds [2][3] - Fund managers are particularly interested in companies with strong overseas warehouse capabilities, as these facilities allow for bulk customs clearance and lower tax rates, leading to explosive growth in demand for overseas warehouses [2][4] Group 2 - Companies like JD Logistics, which have over 50 self-operated overseas warehouses in regions such as North America and Southeast Asia, have become key holdings for funds, with JD Logistics reporting a 186.8% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for 2024 [4][5] - Other public funds are heavily investing in companies like Jitu Express and Pinduoduo, which are also expanding their overseas warehouse networks, indicating a strong focus on this area by fund managers [5][6] - The logistics and warehouse sector is being prioritized by various funds, with a notable absence of dedicated cross-border e-commerce funds, suggesting a strategic focus on logistics as a foundational infrastructure for e-commerce [7][8] Group 3 - The cross-border e-commerce sector is characterized by a limited number of investable targets, leading funds to adopt a strategy focused on a few leading companies rather than a broad industry approach [7][9] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of identifying high-quality, globally competitive companies within the cross-border e-commerce space, indicating a preference for specific stock selection over broad sector investment [9]

2024年，春秋航空又一次交出了一份亮眼成绩单：春秋航空营业收入同比增长11.5%至200亿元，净利润同比增长0.69%至22.73亿元。另外，在最新披露的 2025年一季度业绩成绩单里，春秋航空以6.77亿元的净利润依然稳住了国内"最赚钱"航司的地位。 在当前的市场环境下，对成本的控制能力影响着公司盈利能力。2024年，春秋航空的单位成本为0.316元，较上年同期下降 3.3%；单位非油成本为0.205元， 较上年同期下降1.7%，较2019年同期下降0.1%。2024年第二大盈利上市航司吉祥航空的单位成本同比下降5.56%至0.34元，单位非油成本则同比下降8.7%至 0.21元。 中国航协此前发布的通报曾指出，2024年航空客运市场"旺丁不旺财"现象较为突出，经济舱平均票价同比2023年下降超过10%，全年客公里平均收益水平同 比下降12.5%。在行业普遍的票价水平同比下降的情况下，票价水平原本就更低的低成本航空，受到的影响也更小。 2024年，因供需变化和票价波动，大部分航空公司客公里收益出现大幅下跌。相较于三大航司客公里收益两位数的下跌幅度，春秋航空的下跌幅度仅为 6.5%，且相较于2019年同比仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in travel and accommodation trends during the May Day holiday, highlighting a surge in demand and price increases across various travel sectors, particularly in lesser-known destinations and county-level hotels. Group 1: Travel Trends - The May Day holiday is expected to reach a peak in travel activity, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 5.42 million, a 31% increase compared to the previous year [6] - Popular destinations are experiencing a price increase in flight tickets, with over 70% of tickets rising by 2% to 5% [10] - The average daily traffic on national highways is projected to be around 62 million vehicles during the holiday [6] Group 2: Accommodation Price Surge - Hotel prices have seen dramatic increases, particularly in county and lesser-known scenic areas, with some hotels in third-tier cities raising prices by over 300% [34][33] - For example, a hotel room that typically costs 300 yuan per night is priced at 6142 yuan during the holiday [18] - In major cities, hotel prices have increased significantly, with some examples showing price hikes of 40% to 195%, such as a hotel in Xi'an increasing from 174 yuan to 514 yuan [31] Group 3: Changing Consumer Demographics - There is a notable shift in the demographic of travelers, with a significant increase in the number of elderly tourists, who now make up over 35% of visitors at popular attractions, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous year [69] - The article highlights the rise of "reverse tourism," where lesser-known destinations are becoming increasingly popular, leading to a 126% increase in bookings for county-level accommodations [37] - The influx of foreign tourists is also notable, with a 173% increase in inbound travel orders during the May Day holiday compared to last year [50] Group 4: Evolving Travel Preferences - The article emphasizes the personalization of travel experiences, with younger travelers seeking tranquility in lesser-known areas, while older travelers are increasingly participating in group tours designed for their demographic [76][87] - The trend of "individualized tourism" is becoming more pronounced, as travelers seek unique experiences that resonate with their personal interests and lifestyles [75] - The article concludes that the meaning of travel has evolved, with a focus on personal fulfillment and enjoyment rather than traditional tourist activities [88]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in ticket pricing and is expected to optimize costs, which will aid in profit improvement [2][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year [3][8] - The company is positioned as a leading low-cost airline in China, with strong growth potential and improving operational performance [9] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% and 0.7% respectively [3][8] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but the net profit decreased by 16.4% to 677 million yuan [2][3] Capacity and Utilization - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for 2024 increased by 16.1%, with domestic and international routes showing growth of 7.7% and 70.9% respectively [4] - The overall passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 18.8% in 2024, with domestic and international routes growing by 9.8% and 82.3% respectively [4] - The fleet size reached 129 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 8 aircraft, and the fleet utilization improved to 9.3 hours, up 0.8 hours year-on-year [5] Cost Management - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% in 2024, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by only 6.5%, indicating better price resilience compared to the industry [6] - The average fuel price decreased by 7% in 2024, contributing to a reduction in unit costs for the company [6] - The company expects further cost reductions, with both unit fuel and non-fuel costs declining, which will help offset the impact of falling ticket prices [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.712 billion yuan, 3.027 billion yuan, and 3.330 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 11.6%, and 10.0% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Views - The report highlights the performance of Spring Airlines, noting a Q1 2025 profit of 680 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. However, excluding tax shield effects, total profit increased by 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting confidence in the low-cost airline leader's ability to deliver results [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue is projected at 20 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.273 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.7% [2][6]. - **2025 Q1 Financials**: Revenue reached 5.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while net profit was 680 million, down 16.4% year-on-year. Excluding tax shield effects, net profit decreased by 16.8% [6][7]. - **Profit Distribution**: The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 per share, totaling 798 million, with a payout ratio of 35.09% [6]. Operational Metrics - **Capacity and Load Factor**: In 2024, Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 16.1% and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 18.8%, with a load factor of 91.5%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, ASK grew by 6.9% and RPK by 6.2%, with a load factor of 90.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [6][7]. - **Cost Structure**: In 2024, operating costs were 17.412 billion, up 12.2% year-on-year. Fuel costs were 6.14 billion, reflecting an 8.8% increase. For Q1 2025, operating costs were 4.45 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, with estimated fuel costs of 1.5 billion, down 5.4% [6][7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, estimating net profits of 2.79 billion and 3.37 billion, respectively. The target price is set at 65.6, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 53.68 [2][6].

近日，中国各大航司相继公布2024年年报，被戏称为"空中绿皮车"的春秋航空再度凭借"抠门经济学"一 骑绝尘。 春秋航空年报显示，2024年，该公司实现营收200.0亿元，同比增长11.5%；归母净利润22.7亿元，同比 小幅增长0.7%；扣非归母净利润22.5亿元，同比增长1.1%。 相比之下，三大航方面，中国国航、东方航空和南方航空2024年虽营收有进，但均面临不同程度亏损， 净亏损分别为2.37亿元、42.26亿元和16.96亿元；民营航空方面，吉祥航空和华夏航空2024年均实现盈 利，净利润分别为9.14亿元和2.68亿元。 但值得注意的是，作为"最赚钱的航司"，春秋航空也面临"增收不增利"的问题，而这也是行业当前所面 临的共性难题。 "量增价低"致客运收益下降 春秋航空年报显示，2024年，该公司完成运输总周转量456,786.5万吨公里、旅客周转量5,040,445.0万人 公里、运输旅客2,868.0万人次、客座率为91.5%，同比分别上升 18.7%、18.8%、18.8%和2.1个百分点。 前三项达到2019年同期的126.9%、127.0%和 128.1%，客座率较2019年同期上升0.7个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while cargo logistics airlines are performing better than passenger airlines, they are beginning to face challenges from uncertainties in international trade [1][5] - All listed airlines in A-shares have disclosed their 2024 financial reports and Q1 2025 reports, with private airlines achieving profitability while state-owned airlines continue to incur losses [1][2] - Spring Airlines reported the highest net profit of 677 million yuan in Q1, marking it as the most profitable listed airline in mainland China for the quarter [2][3] Group 2 - The performance disparity among airlines is primarily related to the recovery pace of international routes, with international flights still not fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels [2][3] - The three major state-owned airlines have the highest proportion of international routes and wide-body aircraft, making them more susceptible to the slow recovery of international markets [3] - In Q1, average ticket prices declined significantly due to increased competition and the impact of high-speed rail, leading to a downward trend in net profits for most listed airlines [3][4] Group 3 - Cargo logistics airlines, such as China National Aviation and Eastern Air Logistics, reported strong profits in Q1, with net profits of 579 million yuan and 545 million yuan respectively [4] - The strong performance of cargo logistics airlines is attributed to the booming demand for international air freight driven by cross-border e-commerce [4] - Despite the positive performance, the cargo air freight market is expected to face challenges in Q2 due to geopolitical factors and changes in customs policies [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 69.10 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.317 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 677 million, a decrease of 16.4%. The revenue exceeded expectations due to a smaller decline in earnings than anticipated [1][2]. - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 20 billion, an increase of 11.5%, and a net profit of RMB 2.273 billion, a slight increase of 0.7%. Although ticket prices have not shown significant recovery, improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected to enhance revenue during peak seasons [1][3]. - The low-cost airline model has significant growth potential in China, and the company is positioned for growth with high operational efficiency and leading profitability metrics in the industry [1][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.317 billion, up 2.9% year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 677 million, down 16.4%. The performance was better than the expected RMB 600 million due to a smaller-than-expected decline in earnings [1][2]. - The unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by approximately 3.5% year-on-year, with overall capacity (ASK) increasing by 6.9% [2]. 2024 Outlook - The company is projected to have a rapid recovery in capacity, with ASK and RPK increasing by 16.1% and 18.8% respectively, while the load factor is expected to be 91.5%, up 2.1 percentage points. However, unit revenue per passenger kilometer is forecasted to decline by 6.5% [3]. - The operating cost for 2024 is expected to be RMB 17.412 billion, an increase of 12.2%, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 12.9% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 18% to RMB 2.726 billion, with a target price based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.5x, maintaining the target price at RMB 69.10 [4][6]. - The company’s growth potential remains strong due to the low penetration of low-cost airlines in China, and the operational efficiency is expected to improve as aircraft utilization rates recover [4][6].