Group 1: Domestic News - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the need to build a modern financial system with a focus on a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a reasonable financial market structure, and effective financial supervision [2] - In 2025, the national public budget revenue is projected to be 21.6045 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% to 17.6363 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity, while the factory price index has risen above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 49.4 and 49.8, respectively, both showing a decrease from the previous month [3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on consolidating the capital market's positive momentum and enhancing the adaptability of regulatory systems [4] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the capital market, improve the convenience and attractiveness of refinancing systems, and support the development of a modern industrial system [4] Group 4: International News - The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a partial government shutdown is expected due to the House of Representatives not being in session until February 2 [5] - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who has previously criticized quantitative easing and emphasized the need for closer collaboration between the Fed and the Treasury [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices have declined, with WTI crude down 0.32% to $65.21 per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 13.9% to $4.416 per million British thermal units [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - On January 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 352.5 billion yuan for the day [8] - The overall funding environment remains stable, with the DR001 rate decreasing by 3.36 basis points to 1.328% [9] Group 7: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.8100% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price deviations, with certain bonds like "21 Vanke 04" dropping by 17.52% [13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices decline, with the China convertible bond index down by 1.73% on January 30 [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 93.272 billion yuan, an increase of 2.399 billion yuan from the previous trading day [15]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》2026.01.25 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [8][9]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to focus on overseas opportunities rather than domestic ones, with potential "black swan" events in the international market that could significantly impact coal prices [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with overseas operations, specifically China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [1]. - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to remain volatile, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and tightening supply as the Chinese New Year approaches [10][34]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3892.74 points, an increase of 3.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.90 percentage points [69]. - China Qinfa's market capitalization reached a historical high of 10.6 billion HKD, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 695 CNY/ton, up by 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand fluctuates due to the upcoming holiday [34]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [9]. - Companies like China Qinfa, which are expanding overseas, are highlighted as having significant growth potential [1][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply is tightening as some mines halt production for the holiday, while demand is supported by pre-holiday stockpiling [10][34]. - The report also mentions that the inventory levels at major ports are decreasing, which could support price stability [14]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with a focus on high-quality development amid structural reforms [34]. - Long-term prospects for the coal sector remain positive, with expectations of increased concentration and stability in supply-demand dynamics [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while some companies like Huayang Co. and Shanmei International are rated as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal consumption scale has reached a peak plateau, with the demand for electricity generated from coal expected to stabilize in the coming years. The report suggests that the traditional growth model of coal-fired power generation may face a turning point due to the increasing share of clean energy [6][7]. - The transition of coal-fired power from a primary energy source to a supporting role in the new energy system is emphasized, with a significant expansion in installed capacity expected in the next few years [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal-fired Power: Transitioning to Peak Regulation and Support - The role of coal-fired power is shifting towards providing peak regulation and support, with its share in the energy mix declining but still remaining a core component of energy security [6][11]. - Installed capacity of coal-fired power is expected to continue expanding, with projections of new installations reaching 87 GW, 86 GW, and 43 GW from 2026 to 2028, respectively [6][29]. 2. Clean Energy: Becoming the Main Source of New Installations - Hydropower is expected to play a dual role in stable supply and peak regulation, with new installations projected to reach 17 GW, 18 GW, and 33 GW from 2026 to 2028 [7][39]. - Wind power is anticipated to see significant growth, with new installations expected to reach 109 GW, 161 GW, and 193 GW during the same period, reflecting its transition to a primary energy source [7][52]. - Solar energy is entering a stable development phase, with new installations projected at 192 GW, 139 GW, and 153 GW from 2026 to 2028, despite recent challenges in energy consumption and bidding processes [7][59]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Dividend and Flexibility - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cash flow stability and dividend potential, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal and Huayang Co. as having potential benefits from high coal demand [6][7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report emphasizes that the price of thermal coal is influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors, while coking coal prices are more market-driven [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 RMB per ton for 2025 [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Key stocks to consider include: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversification and growth logic: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points [10][25] - As of January 30, the price of Qin港 Q5500 thermal coal was 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 RMB from the previous period [21] - The report notes a significant drop in coal inventory at ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven point for coal and power companies [4][15] - The report emphasizes that the overall investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly during the heating season [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery is expected to follow a specific process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven price of around 750 RMB per ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, and 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points, with notable gains from companies like 盘江股份 and 山西焦化 [10][25] - The report provides various market indicators, including port prices for thermal coal at 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase, and coking coal prices remaining stable at 1800 RMB per ton [21][23]

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2026 年 02 月 01 日 节前产地供给偏紧，补库需求支撑 下，预计煤价仍将上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.24-2026.1.30） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 30 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 527、609、692 元/吨，环比上涨 13、10、7 元/吨。供给 端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.17 万吨，环比上周增加 0.1 万吨，增幅 0.04%，同比增加 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 美股煤炭指数为何一马当先？ 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 年初至今，Wind 美国煤炭指数累计上涨 30.6%，远超 SW 煤炭指数涨幅，引发市场关注。实 际上，我们发现由于指数编制原因，美股煤炭指数亮眼的涨幅更多是铀业务等核燃料相关公司 贡献，而主要美国煤炭股今年以来平均涨幅仅 5.5%，不过这并不影响该平均涨幅在 2025 年高 达 40.4%的事实。究其原因，主要是美国 AI 缺电及关税强化本土制造业回流所带来的需求预 期向好，推动资金布局低估值煤炭标的。我们认为美国煤炭行业需求增长有望为国内供需带来 外生冲击，一定程度打开国内煤价弹性想象空间，进而为国内煤炭板块提供上涨助燃剂。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BU ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [10][11] - The coal supply is expected to tighten due to domestic supply constraints and Indonesia's reduction in coal production targets, which will support a stable recovery in coal prices throughout the year [10][11] - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [10][11] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, and public funds currently underweight in coal holdings [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 31, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 691 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 74.5 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1780 CNY/ton [31] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 88.3%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [10][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 8.30 thousand tons/day (-1.8%) [50] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 7.70 thousand tons/day (-3.3%) [50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [13][16] - The thermal coal segment rose by 4.07%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.92% [16] 4. Future Outlook - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating new high-quality capacity planning to meet medium to long-term energy demands [11] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to macroeconomic improvements and regulatory changes [11]