行 业 及 产 业 房地产 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资销售两端走弱，国常会要求更大力度推动 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 止跌回稳 看好 ——房地产 1-5 月月报 ⚫ 投资端低位继续走弱，开工、竣工降幅收窄。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计来看，投资同比- 10.7%，较前值-0.4pct；新开工同比-22.8%，较前值+1.0pct；施工同比-9.2%，较前值 +0.5pct；竣工同比-17.3%，较前值-0.4pct。5 月单月来看，投资同比-12.0%，较前值- 0.7pct；开工同比-19.3%，较前值+2.9pct；竣工同比-19.5%，较前值+8.4pct。我们认 为，目前房地产行业 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 16 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 有序搭建新模式，推进好房子，更大力度推动止跌回稳 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——国务院常务会议点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：6 月 13 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地产发展 新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报。 联系人 新模式：构建房地产发展新模式，稳中求进、先立后破、有序搭建。会议提到，构 建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义， 要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。5 月 7 日，国 新办新闻发布会提到，"将加快完善与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度"。 其中，现房销售作为房地产发展新模式的一环，一方面，其试点工作已在推进过程 中，2020 年，商品住宅销售中，现房销售占比 10%，2024 年已提升至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for a "greater effort to stabilize the real estate market" and to construct a new development model for the industry, which is crucial for promoting stable, healthy, and high-quality development [10][11] - The report indicates that the current market requires urgent solutions to the contradictions between supply and demand, particularly regarding inventory and expectations [11] - The policy direction suggests a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with expectations of continued easing measures [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the basic point of inflection for the industry may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policy support to continue [13] - Recommended investment focus includes non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and policy relief, leading real estate companies with product advantages, regional companies with differentiated fundamentals, and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction activity [13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - From June 7 to June 13, the transaction area for new homes was 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, showing a month-on-month improvement of 5.65 percentage points [17] - The cumulative inventory reached 105.99 million square meters, with accelerated absorption in second-tier cities and slower absorption in first-tier and lower-tier cities [17] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same period, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 1.89 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, reflecting a decline of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous month [26] - The transaction area for first-tier, second-tier, and lower-tier cities was 0.50 million, 1.30 million, and 0.09 million square meters, respectively [26] Land Market - From June 2 to June 8, the total land transaction area was 1.438 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decrease of 1.57% [35] - The total transaction amount reached 30.7 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 17.93% [35]

Group 1 - New City issued a $300 million three-year USD bond with a coupon rate of 11.88%, but the market price fell by 0.5-1pt from the issue price, leading to a final subscription amount of $612 million, down from $880 million [1][2] - This bond issuance is significant as it marks the first USD bond from a private real estate company in three years and is an unsecured credit bond, which helps alleviate cash outflows for the company [2][4] - The issuance timing was strategic, as the company aimed to capitalize on a favorable market window, similar to previous successful issuances by other companies like Greentown [4][10] Group 2 - New City was cautious in its approach, issuing only $300 million out of a $600 million quota, which helps mitigate repayment pressure in the future [6][7] - The company executed a quick transition from bond issuance to repurchasing maturing bonds, demonstrating careful financial planning [9][10] - The investor composition for the bond was notable, with 39% from funds and asset management companies, 55% from high-net-worth clients/private banks, and only 6% from investment banks, indicating a cautious sentiment from larger financial institutions [11]

Core Insights - The Hunan real estate market is undergoing structural adjustments, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominating the market and local private enterprises finding ways to break through with flexible product strategies and regional focus [1][13] - The top three companies in the Hunan real estate sales ranking from January to May 2025 are China Resources Land, China State Construction Engineering Corporation, and China Merchants Shekou, collectively holding over 22% market share [7][13] Rankings Overview - SOEs have a significant presence, with eight companies in the top ten, accounting for 80% of the market [5][13] - Among the top 30 companies, 12 local private enterprises have improved their rankings year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum [8][9] Monthly Performance - In May 2025, China Jinmao led the monthly sales ranking with a net signed amount of 9.42 billion, significantly improving its position by 18 places compared to the previous year [10] - Local SOE Chengfa Hengwei also saw a notable rise, moving up 10 places to rank 8th in the monthly list [10] Regional Market Dynamics - In the Yueyang market, Tianlun Real Estate led with 1.97 billion in sales, while in Xiangtan, a three-way competition exists among national brands and local firms [11] - In the Zhuzhou market, brand enterprises dominate, with Jianfa Real Estate achieving the top position due to strong sales of its flagship project [12] Conclusion - The Hunan real estate market is characterized by a deepening head effect from SOEs, resilience from local private enterprises, and a diverse regional landscape, suggesting a shift towards more refined competition in the future [13]

重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.6 万套，环比上周增长 23.2%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 36.5 万套，累计同比下降 3.4%。其中，一 线城市成交 4854 套，环比上周增长 29.6%，2025 年累计成交 10.5 万 套，累计同比增长13.2%；二线城市成交9134套，环比上周增长15.1%， 2025 年累计成交 21.6 万套，累计同比下降 9.8%；三线城市成交 1953 套，环比上周增长 55.5%，2025 年累计成交 4.4 万套，累计同比下降 3.5%。 2025 年 06 月 15 日 房地产 更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 周观点：国常会强调进一步优化房地产政策 6 月 13 日，国常会召开，针对房地产行业，会议强调更大力度推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。相较于过往 2024 年 9 月政治局会议首次提出 "促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，到 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议强 调"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，到本次强调"更大力度推 动房地产市场止跌回稳"，政策表述逐渐强化。 我们认为，6 月核心城市二手房销量增长放缓，部分区域新房开盘去 化分化加剧的背景下，调控 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, particularly highlighting the potential for policy-driven recovery in major cities [6][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations, with A-share real estate down by 1.8% and Hong Kong real estate up by 2.6% during the week of June 7-13 [2][17]. - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes, including the removal of purchase restrictions, are expected to stimulate market activity and may lead to similar actions in other first-tier cities [4][6]. - New home sales have shown a week-on-week increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 15% across 47 cities, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment [3][32]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a significant increase, with a 30% week-on-week rise in transaction volume across 22 cities [40][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 26th among all sectors with a decline of 1.8%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 6th with an increase of 2.6% [2][17]. - The property service index in Hong Kong rose by 3.1%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively [23][2]. Land Market - The average land premium rate remains low at 3%, with a total of 626,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities during the week, marking a 101% increase week-on-week but a 21% decrease year-on-year [26][30]. - Year-to-date, the total residential land area sold is 15,209,000 square meters, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year decline [26][30]. Policy Developments - Guangzhou's proposed policy changes aim to eliminate purchase, sale, and price restrictions, which could lead to a broader easing of real estate policies in other major cities [4][6]. - The central government has indicated a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting further policy support may be forthcoming [4][6]. Financing Trends - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with new long-term loans for residents rebounding to 746 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing conditions [5][18]. - The year-to-date decline in new long-term loans has narrowed to 2.9%, suggesting improved market resilience [5][18]. Sales Data - New home sales in 47 cities totaled 3.31 million square meters, with significant increases in first-tier cities [32][3]. - Second-hand home sales reached 2.51 million square meters, with notable growth in transaction volumes across all city tiers [40][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new development model for real estate to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. The focus is on long-term strategies, maintaining stability while progressing, and establishing foundational systems in an orderly manner [4][8]. - The term "stop the decline and stabilize" has been reiterated, suggesting that further supportive policies may be introduced to enhance market stability. This reflects the central government's ongoing commitment to stabilizing housing prices and addressing the current market challenges [6]. - The "Good Housing" initiative is gaining traction, with increased support from various provinces and a shift in policy focus from mere housing availability to creating livable environments. This initiative is expected to accelerate development and improve the quality of housing [6][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market. This includes a thorough assessment of existing land and ongoing projects to refine current policies [4][6]. - The new development model aims to be a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term fix, with an emphasis on gradual implementation and avoiding abrupt changes in policy [6][8]. Market Analysis - The report notes that while transaction volumes in the primary and secondary housing markets have stabilized over the past three years, price and volume have not entered a positive cycle as expected. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to enhance policy support [6]. - The anticipated new round of supportive policies may include measures such as mortgage rate reductions, increased "Good Housing" initiatives, and optimized land storage policies, which are expected to benefit quality real estate companies [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies that are likely to lead the market recovery, including firms like China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments. It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies for potential investment opportunities [6][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3rd, following a vigorous selection process involving industry experts and enterprises [1]. Group 1: Evaluation Process - The evaluation will combine expert reviews and online voting to determine the final awards, including "Top Ten High-End/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and "National Good House Comprehensive Award" [1]. - The evaluation work is currently progressing in an orderly manner, with shortlisted projects being showcased [1]. Group 2: Shortlisted Projects - High-end shortlisted projects include: - Fuzhou Poly Tianzan, a luxury waterfront residence [1]. - Guangzhou Poly Tianyi, characterized by modern high-rise residential design [2]. - Shanghai Chaoming Dongfang, a significant work celebrating Greentown China's 30th anniversary [3]. - Yuyiao Zhenyuan, showcasing a modern architectural style [4]. - Quality shortlisted projects include: - Chongqing Longhu·Guancui, representing high-end living in South Chongqing [7]. - Beijing Chang'an Huaxi Mansion, noted for its five highlights contributing to its exceptional product strength [10]. - Taizhou Jiangying Yundian, located in a core area with lake view aesthetics [10]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Since 2018, the industry has focused on changes in product strength, evolving from "product strength" to "product system" and "customer demand" research, emphasizing the importance of delivery capability [14]. - The 2025 China Real Estate Product Strength Evaluation has been fully launched, with awards for the top works and good houses to be announced at the end of June [14].