Core Insights - The strategic value of optical modules has reached unprecedented heights as they serve as the "highway" for data flow in the context of exponential growth in computing power demand driven by AI [8] - The Chinese optical module industry has transitioned from being a participant in the global market to a key player in technological evolution and market restructuring [8] Industry Overview - The current explosion in the optical module market is driven by the needs of hyperscale data centers, moving beyond traditional telecom network construction [3][8] - AI model training and inference have significantly increased the demand for data transmission bandwidth within and between data centers, necessitating thousands of high-speed optical modules for single AI server clusters [3][8] Market Trends - The shipment volume of 800G optical modules is expected to double in 2025, with a transition from 800G to 1.6T modules underway [9] - The technology is evolving along three main lines: increasing speed, reducing power consumption, and enhancing integration, leading to a diversified and layered competitive landscape [9] Competitive Landscape - Chinese optical module companies are shifting from midstream manufacturing advantages to upstream core component autonomy and global supply chain development [4][9] - The industry is focusing on cutting-edge areas such as CPO, LPO, and silicon photonics, aiming to build a fully autonomous ecosystem from materials to systems [10] Future Outlook - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the Chinese optical module industry, marking a transition from quantity explosion to quality leadership [10] - As computing power becomes essential in the new era, Chinese optical module companies are leveraging their technological expertise and market responsiveness to establish a robust data transmission infrastructure for the intelligent world [10]

Core Viewpoint - Silicon photonics is not merely a substitute for existing technologies but represents a revolutionary shift in the optical communication industry, reshaping the entire value chain and creating new opportunities for domestic leaders with independent PIC design capabilities [1][2]. Industry Insights - The demand for optical communication is accelerating, necessitating higher standards for both upstream supply and rapid iteration, which silicon photonics can meet through its capacity flexibility, high integration, low power consumption, and rapid iteration capabilities [1]. - Silicon photonics technology integrates photonics with established semiconductor manufacturing processes, shifting the focus from discrete components to a more centralized design approach, enhancing the core position of PIC design companies within the industry [2]. Market Potential - The synergy between silicon photonics and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is expected to unlock a scale-up market, representing a systemic revolution from "electrical interconnect" to "optical interconnect," thus expanding the market space significantly beyond traditional optical modules [3]. - The full-scale interconnect technology enabled by silicon photonics will break existing limitations in density, power consumption, and distance, creating a market that is an order of magnitude larger than the traditional optical module market [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key silicon photonics chip manufacturers include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Xihe Technology, Saili Technology, Kecuan Photonics, Xilian Optoelectronics, Bopu Semiconductor, Ayar Labs, and Intel [4]. - Notable silicon photonics fab manufacturers are: SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, Tower, and Global Foundry [4]. - CW light source manufacturers include: Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photonics, Yongding Co., and Lumentum [4]. - Companies providing silicon photonics supporting devices and solutions include: Tianfu Communication, Dongtian Micro, and Weiteng Electric [4]. - Silicon photonics module suppliers consist of: Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology, Cambridge Technology, and Liante Technology [4].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 01 05 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点——20260104 【宏观】2026"国补"4 大看点—兼评 12 月 PMI 超季节性回升—— 20251231 【策略】1 月策略观点与金股推荐：配置趋势共识，博弈产业催化—— 20260104 【策略】人民币升值下的投资线索——20260101 【金融工程】上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨——20260104 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标弱化——20260104 【固定收益】一月债市的风险和机会——20260104 【固定收益】资金平稳跨年，新年政府债发行开启——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260103 【固定收益】缓和的落地，节后债市修复——20260101 【通信】无光不 AI，硅基光电子引爆新一轮算力革命——20260104 【化工】2026 年度策略：—迎接破晓时刻——20260101 【电新】光伏：反内卷带来行业拐点，新技术引领突围——20260104 【有色金属】2026 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The deployment and expansion of 5G networks are significantly driving the demand for high-speed optical modules, which are essential for data transmission in 5G networks [1] - Different scenarios such as front-haul and mid-haul require differentiated transmission performance, pushing optical modules towards higher speeds to support emerging services like HD video and industrial IoT [1] - The global 5G base station deployment is projected to reach 6.376 million by 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, with a forecast of 8.5 million by 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Zhongji Xuchuang is the only global manufacturer to achieve mass production of 400G/800G silicon optical modules, with a high yield of 95% for its self-developed 1.6T silicon optical module [4] - NewEase focuses on integrating silicon photonics and LPO technology, with significant orders from Meta and Amazon for its 800G LPO silicon optical modules [4] - Coherent maintains a strong market share in 800G optical modules and is collaborating with Lumentum to develop next-generation solutions [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The Chinese optical module industry is in a high-growth phase, with competitors categorized into three tiers based on revenue, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading the first tier with over 20 billion in revenue [5] - The competitive landscape is characterized by diverse technological routes and differentiated core advantages among leading companies, with a focus on self-research and global expansion [7] - Companies like Cambridge Technology and Guangxun Technology leverage vertical integration to enhance their product offerings and market responsiveness [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Companies are advancing in the 800G/1.6T high-end product space, with Zhongji Xuchuang showcasing its 3nm 1.6T OSFP series products at OFC2025 [8] - NewEase has entered mass production with its automated production lines in Thailand, focusing on high-end products and optimizing supply chain responsiveness [8] - Huagong Technology is enhancing its production capabilities and expanding its delivery network to meet the growing demand for 800G and 1.6T products [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **communication sector** with a focus on **optical interconnection**, **commercial aerospace**, **edge AI**, **liquid cooling**, and **fiber optic cables** [2][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment Opportunities in Communication Sector**: - Five key areas identified for investment: optical interconnection, commercial aerospace, edge AI, liquid cooling, and fiber optic cables [2]. - Optical interconnection is highlighted due to the increasing demand from North American data centers, with expectations for rapid growth in the demand for new chip models from NVIDIA and Google [2][3]. 2. **Trends in Optical Interconnection**: - The transition from 800G to 1.6T bandwidth is a clear trend, with significant demand growth anticipated, especially in 2027 [3]. - New technologies such as OCS, CPO, and NPO are expected to be commercially available by the end of 2025 to 2026, meeting customer needs [4][5]. 3. **Characteristics of Overseas Supply Chain**: - The overseas supply chain is expanding bandwidth capabilities and accelerating the introduction of new technologies [5]. - Factors driving this include increased demand confidence, the release of various rate products, and the rapid deployment of new technologies [6]. 4. **Market Dynamics for CPO Switches**: - There is some market disagreement regarding the commercial rollout of CPO switches, with delays noted due to industrial complexities [7]. - Despite these delays, the overall trend towards CPO technology remains strong, indicating a high demand for CPU and related high-density interconnection systems [7]. 5. **Growth in Computing Power and Optical Interconnection**: - Significant developments are expected in computing power and optical interconnection in 2026, with domestic internet companies maintaining high investment levels [8]. - The penetration of domestic computing power supernodes is expected to increase, with major companies like Alibaba adopting optical interconnection solutions [8]. 6. **Commercial Aerospace Prospects**: - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to enter a golden development period in 2026, driven by advancements in reusable rockets and low-orbit satellite internet launches [9]. 7. **Edge AI Developments**: - The edge AI market is expected to expand with more smartphone manufacturers launching AI-enabled devices, enhancing user engagement [10]. 8. **Liquid Cooling Technology**: - Liquid cooling technology is entering a full liquid cooling era in overseas markets, with increasing penetration rates [10]. - Domestic liquid cooling suppliers are expected to achieve breakthroughs in overseas supply chains and benefit from domestic supernode growth [12]. 9. **Trends in Fiber Optic Cable Industry**: - The fiber optic cable industry is showing signs of improvement, driven by increased AI computing power demand and the release of new applications [13]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards high-end applications, which will enhance profit margins for manufacturers [13]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlights the potential for domestic liquid cooling companies to thrive in both overseas and domestic markets, suggesting a dual catalyst for growth [12]. - The fiber optic cable sector is expected to face challenges from increased demand for specialty fibers in overseas markets, which may impact domestic supply [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current trends and future opportunities within the communication sector.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the overseas computing power chain will maintain an upward trend in prosperity, with North American CSPs expected to continue high capital expenditure and enthusiasm for data center construction, supported by rapid scaling of computing chips like NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and the next generation of products expected to be commercialized by 2026 [1][2] - Domestic internet companies are also maintaining high investment in computing power construction, with the penetration rate of domestic computing supernodes expected to continue to rise, and some supernodes adopting optical interconnection solutions, further releasing demand for optical interconnection [1][2] - The optical interconnection sector is projected to be a high-certainty investment direction for 2026, with the high-end optical module market expected to grow annually, and demand visibility likely to extend further, driving rapid growth in the performance of supply chain companies [2] Group 2 - Key investment opportunities include leading companies that have entered the overseas/domestic computing supply chain, which are expected to benefit from the high growth of the optical interconnection industry, with specific companies suggested for attention such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, and Huagong Technology [2] - The release of demand for high-speed optical modules will bring significant growth in demand for upstream optical chips and devices, with potential supply-demand mismatches expected to enhance the sector's prosperity, suggesting attention to companies like Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, Changguang Huaxin, Yongding Co., and Dekeli [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a rapid development phase, with multiple catalysts expected by 2026, particularly the launch of reusable and large-capacity commercial rockets, which will significantly enhance rocket capacity and facilitate satellite communication development [3] Group 3 - The end-side AI is entering a major tool era, with competition expected to extend from smaller devices to broader consumer-facing tools like smartphones, leading to investment opportunities in end-side AI hardware manufacturers and cloud-edge computing demand [4] - The liquid cooling sector is expected to experience a significant demand release in both overseas and domestic markets, with domestic supernodes entering a golden development period, suggesting attention to companies like Yingweike, Gaolan Co., Shenling Environment, and Kexin Innovation Source [4] - The long-cycle turning point for optical fiber and cable may have been confirmed, with the industry previously in a state of oversupply, but now expected to benefit from increased demand for high-end optical fibers, which could enhance profit levels for manufacturers [6]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 通信行业点评报告 2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为核，卫星 为翼 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn -9% 2% 13% 24% 35% 46% 57% 68% 79% 90% 101% 2025/1/3 2025/5/3 2025/8/31 2025/12/29 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《 AI 算力方案多点开花，继续看好 光互联方向》 2025-11-27 《AI 算力跟踪深度（四）：怎么看算力 的天花板和成长性？》 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025-10-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 光互联核心受益海外算力与国内算力需求共振。展望 2026 年，海外算 力链将保持景气度向上。北美 CSP 对资本开支保持高投入预期，数据中 心建设热情高涨，以英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 为代表的算力芯片都在快 速上量，更下一代产品也将在 2026 年开始商用，与之配套的光互联全 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented opportunities in the optical communication sector, driven by the explosive growth in AI computing power and infrastructure needs [2][4]. Group 1: AI Arms Race and Infrastructure - The competition in AI has evolved from merely acquiring chips to building comprehensive computing and interconnect capabilities [5]. - Major companies like Google and Meta are developing custom ASIC chips and data centers to enhance AI system efficiency [7]. - The essence of this competition is to scale computing power, with optical communication networks serving as the "highway" for connecting computing units [10]. Group 2: Optical Module Market Dynamics - The demand for optical modules is surging due to the exponential increase in data throughput and the need for higher transmission speeds [16]. - The transition from 400G/800G to 1.6T and the anticipated move towards 3.2T in optical module technology reflects the industry's rapid evolution [16]. - Chinese manufacturers are rising in prominence, with seven out of the top ten global optical module companies being Chinese by 2024 [18]. Group 3: Key Players in Optical Communication - Company A (中际旭创) is a global leader in high-speed optical modules, particularly in the 800G and next-generation 1.6T segments, and is closely tied to major AI firms like NVIDIA and Google [19]. - Company B (高意) ranks among the top three globally and is recognized for its differentiated technology in linear drive pluggable optical modules [21]. - Company C (光迅科技) has a vertically integrated business model covering the entire optical communication supply chain, enhancing its risk management and cost control [23]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Silicon photonics technology is revolutionizing traditional optical modules by integrating multiple optical components into a single silicon chip, leading to significant cost and power savings [31]. - The cost of silicon optical modules is projected to decrease significantly, with the market expected to reach $10.3 billion by 2029, capturing a larger share of the optical module market [34]. - Emerging technologies like Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) are set to further enhance efficiency and reduce latency in data centers [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that while risks exist, the demand for AI-driven computing and interconnect solutions is expected to remain robust, indicating a prolonged high-growth cycle for optical communication [38]. - Historical trends show that each technological revolution has been preceded by infrastructure upgrades, positioning the optical communication sector at the forefront of the current AI era [42].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a favorable investment rating to the company, indicating a significant potential for price appreciation compared to the benchmark index [7][20]. Core Insights - The company, 蘅东光, is recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant in the field of passive optical devices, focusing on research, manufacturing, and sales [4][21]. - The growth in the optical communication sector is driving the demand for passive optical components, with AI data center construction further boosting the market for optical fiber cabling products [5][54]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including global leaders like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, enhancing its market position [6][44]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 0.58 yuan per share [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve rapid revenue growth from 475 million yuan in 2022 to 1.315 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.74%, 29.03%, and 114.40% respectively [7][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 55.33 million yuan in 2022 to 147.58 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 128.71% [9][16]. Competitive Position - 蘅东光 has a competitive edge in the passive optical device sector, supported by a robust product matrix that meets diverse customer needs across data centers and telecommunications [6][45]. - The company has developed advanced manufacturing capabilities through its proprietary "sub-micron digital motion control technology platform," achieving high precision in production [6][47]. Market Trends - The global market for optical modules is expected to exceed 20 billion USD by 2027, with data centers becoming the largest application market [5][56]. - The demand for optical fiber cabling products is increasing due to the rapid construction of AI data centers, which require high bandwidth and low latency solutions [63][64]. Valuation Analysis - The company's projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is 14.57, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies, indicating a potential undervaluation [20][23]. - The company has a solid financial foundation with a high growth rate in both revenue and net profit, positioning it favorably within the industry [16][39].

Event Summary - The annual report disclosure schedule for 2025 has been released, with ChipGuide Technology being the first to disclose on February 3, 2026, and *ST Huawang on February 13, 2026 [1] Industry Insights - Key sectors expected to show improved or sustained high growth in annual report performance include "price-increasing commodities," "new energy and high-end manufacturing," "export-oriented sectors," and "TMT sectors with strong or improving demand" [1] - In the "price-increasing commodities" category, items with price increases exceeding 200% include black tungsten concentrate, VC, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, while those with increases over 100% include platinum and cobalt [4] - The new energy and high-end manufacturing sector is benefiting from high growth in military equipment orders and expanding demand for industrial robots and energy storage [6] - The export sector has seen significant growth, with high-tech and electromechanical product exports increasing by 7.7% and 9.7% year-on-year, respectively [6] Company Performance - A list of companies expected to see net profit growth exceeding 50% for the year has been compiled, based on preliminary quarterly report data [8] - Notable companies include Yuanjie Technology, with a projected net profit increase of 1726.36%, and Runze Technology, with an increase of 262.73% [9] - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow by 13.7% in sales in 2025, driven by strong demand for memory chips [7]