Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Growth-Value Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Growth-Value Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model suggests overweighting growth stocks based on the current market environment and historical data analysis[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the macroeconomic environment, valuation signals, short-term momentum signals, style breadth signals, and style congestion signals to determine the allocation between growth and value stocks[22] - The model uses the following signals: - Dynamic macro signal: 0% - Valuation reversion signal: 100% - Short-term momentum signal: 0% - Style breadth signal: 100% - Style congestion signal: 100%[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown a significant annualized return of 14.47% since 2011, with an annualized excess return of 7.90% over the benchmark[22] - **Model Test Results**: - Annualized return: 14.47% - Annualized volatility: 21.44% - Maximum drawdown: 40.08% - Sharpe ratio: 0.64 - Return-drawdown ratio: 0.36[23] 2. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model suggests overweighting large-cap stocks based on liquidity conditions and market trends[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses 11 effective rotation indicators to construct a comprehensive signal for rotating between small-cap and large-cap stocks[25] - The model evaluates the following indicators: - A-share Dragon Tiger List buying intensity: 0% - R007: 0% - Financing buy balance change: 0% - Thematic investment trading sentiment: 0% - Grade spread: 100% - Option volatility risk premium: 100% - Beta dispersion: 0% - PB differentiation: 0% - Block trading discount/premium rate: 100% - CSI 1000 MACD (10,20,10): 0% - CSI 1000 trading volume: 0%[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently generated positive excess returns annually since 2014[26] - **Model Test Results**: - Annualized return: 20.61% - Annualized excess return: 13.18% - Maximum drawdown: 40.70% - Average turnover interval (trading days): 20 - Win rate (by trade): 50.00%[27] Model Backtest Results Growth-Value Rotation Model - Annualized return: 14.47% - Annualized volatility: 21.44% - Maximum drawdown: 40.08% - Sharpe ratio: 0.64 - Return-drawdown ratio: 0.36[23] Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - Annualized return: 20.61% - Annualized excess return: 13.18% - Maximum drawdown: 40.70% - Average turnover interval (trading days): 20 - Win rate (by trade): 50.00%[27]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 2025 北交所券商执业全景：特色券商优势巩固，头部券商逐渐跃居前列 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 年格局重塑：头部券商成为执业主力军，特色券商优势巩固 2026 年 1 月 30 日北京证券交易所、全国股转公司根据对证券公司 2025 年的执 业质量情况进行了评价。2025 年度，115 家证券公司中，14 家证券公司子公司 纳入其母公司合并评价，由高到低分别被评为一、二、三、四档，其中，一档占 比 19.80%；二档占比 39.60%；三档占比 19.80%；四档占比 20.79%。从一档券 商变化来看，北交所市场券商执业格局"大洗牌"，头部券商逐渐跃居前列。2025 年排名前十名分别为国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、申万宏源、中信证券、国 金证券、东吴证券、开源证券、中信建投、平安证券，其中华泰证券、中信证券、 平安证券分别由 2024 年的第二档跃升为第一档。从专业质量总分变化来看，头 部券商进步明显。2025 年排名前五名分别为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market has already completed the "de-virtualization" pricing, and there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations [1][15] - Recent overseas market risk preferences and liquidity have shown significant changes, with a growing urgency in the US and Europe to focus on real economy and strategic security [1][15] - The AI-driven disruptive innovation is breaking traditional monopolies, leading to increased anxiety in the software sector, which is currently under pressure [1][15] Group 2 - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but the spring market is still anticipated to be promising, with potential positive news in the coming months [2][16] - Historical trends indicate that the market usually experiences a temporary correction before the Spring Festival, but investors are advised to hold stocks during this period [2][16] - The market is likely to see a rebound in trading activity after the Spring Festival, supported by high-frequency data and industry hot topics [2][16] Group 3 - The best opportunities in the current market are in new technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI and related industries, with a rebound expected around the Spring Festival [3][17] - Non-bank financials are also anticipated to rebound as redemption pressures on broad-based ETFs decrease [3][17] - Mid-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, including technology and cyclical industries [3][17] Group 4 - The market is currently in a wide-ranging adjustment phase, with trading activity declining as the Spring Festival approaches [4][18] - There is an ongoing style shift in the market, with a focus on balancing growth and value styles as new market leaders emerge [4][18] - The overall sentiment remains positive for a "systematic slow bull" market, with a focus on sectors like securities, social services, and construction materials [4][18] Group 5 - Short-term strategies should focus on low-crowding technology opportunities, while mid-term strategies should gradually shift towards high-dividend, low-valuation sectors [6][19] - Key sectors for mid-term investment include banks, food and beverage, and transportation, which are expected to provide stable cash flows and dividends [6][19] - Caution is advised for sectors closely tied to consumption but with limited profit elasticity [6][19] Group 6 - The current market is characterized by a "pre-holiday risk aversion" trend, with a shift in funds from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors to value and consumer sectors [9][24] - Defensive sectors like banks and food and beverage are performing well, while previously strong sectors like computing hardware and metals are experiencing corrections [9][24] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended [9][24] Group 7 - The spring market is not over, and risks during the Spring Festival are expected to be limited, with potential improvements in economic and profit expectations [10][25] - The liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, with expectations of increased capital inflow post-holiday [10][25] - The market is anticipated to see a recovery in real estate sales during the Spring Festival, supported by favorable policies [10][25]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous influx of incremental funds into the market, highlighting investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector [1][7] - The industry rating remains at "Buy," indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4065.58 points, down 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.11% [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.38% decrease [7] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [18] - China Ping An Group increased its stake in China Life H shares, indicating positive industry trends [18] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to show better-than-expected performance for some insurance companies due to a low base in the first half of 2025 [18] Securities Sector - A significant increase in new accounts was observed in January 2026, with 491.58 million new A-share accounts opened, a 213% year-on-year increase [19] - The balance of margin trading reached a historical high, providing strong support for interest income in the securities industry [22] - The Hong Kong IPO market is active, with 384 companies applying for listings as of February 6, 2026, and a daily trading volume of 2202 billion yuan in January, a 94% year-on-year increase [24][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the insurance sector, including China Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), and New China Life (A/H) [18] - In the securities sector, recommended stocks include Guotai Junan (AH), CICC (H), and Huatai Securities (AH) due to their potential for performance improvement [7][18]

监管出手 融资已显著"降温" 市场赚钱效应的回升显著提升了投资者参与热情，成为新开户数激增的核心驱动力。1月12日、13日、14日，A股总成交额连创新高，1月12日达到3.64万 亿元，1月14日达到3.99万亿元。 在市场融资情绪高涨的背景下，监管层适时出手进行逆周期调节。1月14日，经证监会批准，沪深北交易所同步发布通知，将投资者融资买入证券时的融 资保证金最低比例由80%上调至100%，自1月19日起实施。该调整采用"新老划断"原则，仅适用于新开融资合约，存量业务不受影响。 近日，中证数据公布了2026年1月的两融数据。 数据显示，1月融资融券新开户数达19.05万户，较2025年12月的14.71万户环比增长29.5%，较2025年1月的7.4万户同比大增157%。仅略低于2025年9月创 下的全年峰值20.54万户。 截至1月末，市场两融账户总数已达1580.16万户，全市场两融余额报2.72万亿元，再创历史新高。 | | | | | | | | | | 融资融券业务月度统计表 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is actively issuing bonds to supplement capital and enhance financial strength, with a significant increase in bond issuance observed in early 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In February 2023, several brokerages received approval to issue large-scale bonds, including Southwest Securities (up to 14 billion yuan) and China International Capital Corporation (up to 20 billion yuan for long-term bonds and 15 billion yuan for short-term bonds) [1]. - As of February 6, 2023, 28 brokerages had issued a total of 157 bonds, raising 419.35 billion yuan, a 457.65% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The breakdown of bond issuance includes 97 securities company bonds (293.53 billion yuan), 18 subordinated bonds (46.62 billion yuan), and 42 short-term financing bonds (79.2 billion yuan) [1]. Group 2: Purpose of Fundraising - The primary uses of the funds raised through bond issuance include repaying maturing debts, supplementing liquidity, and supporting overseas business development [2]. - There has been a notable increase in the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with three brokerages issuing four such bonds totaling 5.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 3: International Market Engagement - Five brokerages successfully issued bonds in the international market, raising a total of 1.617 billion USD since the start of 2023, with Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities leading in issuance amounts [2]. - The international bond issuance is seen as a crucial channel for brokerages to supplement capital [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond issuance scale is expected to continue growing through 2026, driven by favorable capital market conditions and high demand for funds in brokerage services such as brokerage and margin trading [3]. - Brokerages are accelerating their international expansion, which will further enhance their capital-raising capabilities through multiple channels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to leverage the accelerating IPO issuance pace to enhance revenue through various strategies, focusing on strengthening its client base and optimizing its investment banking services [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company will actively grasp the favorable timing of the accelerated IPO issuance [1] - It plans to enhance revenue levels through multiple measures [1] - The company is committed to deepening its presence in branch institutions, investment platforms, and with China Merchants Bank [1] Group 2: Client Development - The company aims to strengthen its client system and solidify its enterprise customer base [1] - It will continuously build a technology investment banking brand and dynamically optimize the "three investment" linkage mechanism [1] - The company seeks to enhance cooperation with VC institutions, focusing on early identification of quality technology enterprises [1] Group 3: Industry Focus - The company is actively promoting the "Strong Chain Project" to connect "Leaping Enterprises" with leading enterprises [1] - It aims to deepen the integration of industry and finance, focusing on three core tracks: digital technology, green technology, and life sciences [1] - The company intends to explore high-quality enterprises within the industrial chain and actively support China Merchants Group's third entrepreneurial phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to the national "digital finance" policy and is committed to the "AI + finance" strategy of the China Merchants Group, aiming to transform into an "AI securities company" through comprehensive AI integration [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation Strategy - The company has upgraded its "digital planning" to "intelligent planning" and has established the "Tianqi" model system, implementing the "5A methodology" for large language model applications [1] - The company is focusing on a full-scale AI transformation across business development models, service models, operational management mechanisms, and technology platform architecture [1] Group 2: Wealth Management Innovations - In the wealth management sector, the company is exploring the creation of an AI-centric wealth management ecosystem, integrating high-frequency scenarios such as market data, information, asset allocation, investor education, and customer service [1] - The company has developed an AI wealth assistant for C-end clients and an internal AI assistant named "Zhao Xiaogu" for frontline business support [1] Group 3: Institutional Services Enhancement - The company has launched the "Zhao Shang Securities Zhizhi" integrated service brand for institutions, creating a one-stop intelligent research workstation [1] - The "AI Research Institute" has been fully upgraded to assist researchers in generating financial report comments, weekly and monthly reports [1] Group 4: Investment Banking Advancements - The company is focusing on an intelligent undertaking platform in the investment banking sector, launching an operational support platform to enhance marketing success rates, project undertaking efficiency, and integrated management levels [1] Group 5: Investment Research Improvements - The company aims to enhance the trading and market-making capabilities of its investment research platform and to improve its range of business categories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong demand for financing from securities firms, leading to a significant increase in bond issuance, with a total approval amount exceeding 3,400 billion yuan for 2026 [5][10]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - As of February 4, 2026, 12 securities firms have received approval for bond issuance, with a total amount reaching 3,400 billion yuan [5]. - In 2026, 46 securities firms have issued 120 domestic bonds, totaling over 3,168 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 2,227.17 billion yuan [6][10]. - The bond issuance volume in 2026 has increased by over three times compared to the same period last year, driven by a low base from 2025 [6]. Group 2: Major Issuers - Leading securities firms such as Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan Securities have issued 350 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan in bonds, respectively, making them the largest issuers in 2026 [7]. - Other significant issuers include CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities, and China Galaxy Securities, each exceeding 200 billion yuan in bond issuance [7][8]. Group 3: Purpose of Fundraising - The primary purpose of the bond issuance is to ensure liquidity and support business development, with many firms indicating that funds will be used for debt repayment and to supplement working capital [11][12]. - Specific allocations for capital-consuming businesses have been noted, with firms like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities committing to limit the use of raised funds for such purposes to no more than 10% [13]. Group 4: H-share Financing - In addition to domestic bond issuance, major securities firms are also engaging in H-share refinancing, with Guangfa Securities planning to raise over 6 billion HKD through a combination of new H-share placements and convertible bonds [15]. - Huatai Securities announced a zero-coupon convertible bond issuance of 10 billion HKD, aimed at supporting overseas business development and enhancing operational capital [18].

证券日报网2月6日讯 ，招商证券（600999）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司坚定推进财富管理业务转 型，围绕"以客户为中心"的核心战略，充分发挥证券研究专业优势，锚定客户资产增值、AUM稳步增 长的目标，构建数字化驱动的线上线下（300959）一体化的财富管理业务新生态。在"以客户为中心"方 面，公司通过"e招投"基金投顾业务，为大众客户提供普惠金融服务；财富客户方面，以财富顾问团队 为核心，通过构建公募优选、私募50等优选产品，满足财富客户的资产配置需求；高净值客户方面，通 过升级智远私行定制服务方案、"私享会""走进上市公司"等高端个性化定制及投资咨询服务，满足高净 值客户综合服务需求。另外，公司通过分级赋能培训体系和"财富管理平台""财富+"小程序、企业微信 等线上服务工具，为财富顾问实现精准赋能，提升财富顾问整体营销服务能力；打破财富顾问服务疆域 限制，扩大客户服务覆盖面，持续优化客户服务质量及服务体验。 ...