证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 金融工程月报 券商金股 2026 年 3 月投资月报 核心观点 金融工程月报 券商金股股票池上月回顾 2026 年 2 月，炬光科技、东方钽业、天孚通信等券商金股股票的月度上涨 幅度靠前。 2026 年 2 月，财通证券、东吴证券、国投证券收益排名前三，月度收益分 别为 14.54%、10.54%、9.85%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 1.04%，沪 深 300 指数收益 0.09%。 2026 年以来，国元证券、中邮证券、东吴证券收益排名前三，年度收益分 别为 25.15%、24.81%、21.17%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 8.44%， 沪深 300 指数收益 1.74%。 券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，总市值、SUE、预期股息率表现较好，EPTTM、剥离涨停动 量、日内收益率表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、分析师净上调比例、分析师净上调幅度表现较好，单季 度 ROE、EPTTM、日内收益率表现较差。 券商金股股票池本月特征 截至 2026 年 3 月 2 日，共有 39 家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票 池进行去重后，总共有 273 只 A ...

据交易所数据显示，截至3月2日开盘一小时，主力资金流入前20的股票分别为： 比亚迪（14.27亿元）、 中国卫星（7.97亿元）、 雷科防务（7.30亿元）、 特变电工（6.51亿元）、 亨通光电（5.04亿元）、 飞龙股份（4.93亿元）、 东山精密（3.93亿元）、 中际旭创（3.81亿元）、 罗博特科（3.62亿元）、 长江 电力（3.56亿元）、 航天彩虹（3.46亿元）、 特发信息（2.84亿元）、 京东方Ａ（2.46亿元）、 长飞光纤（2.35亿元）、 天孚通信（2.33亿元）、 中科星图 （2.24亿元）、 华工科技（2.21亿元）、 中无人机（2.19亿元）、 东方电气（2.17亿元）、 宝丰能源（2.12亿元）。 | 股票名称 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 3.55 | 14.27亿元 | 汽车 | | 中国卫星 | 7.71 | 7.97亿元 | 国 防军_ | | 雷科防务 | 10.02 | 7.30亿元 | 国防军_ | | 特变电工 | 3.76 | 6.51亿元 | 电力设备 | | 亨 ...

Macro Insights - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to set the GDP growth target for 2026 at "4.5%-5%" and maintain a CPI target around 2%[6] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if the first quarter credit can achieve a "good start"[6] Market Performance - The overall market performance in January showed a 13.1% increase, while March saw a 31.4% rise, with a year-on-year increase of 82.3%[3] - The coal sector maintained a steady performance with a 11.3% increase in both January and March, and a 25.4% increase year-on-year[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals, steel, and energy, as well as companies involved in AI and technology[9] - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yanjing Beer, among others[9] Economic Indicators - The central bank's liquidity measures have led to a slight decline in deposit rates, maintaining a stable and loose monetary environment[14] - The carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 8.8 billion tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 587.2 billion yuan[23] Sector-Specific Trends - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from new policies in Zhejiang and Guangxi, promoting solid waste treatment and recycling[22] - The tourism market is projected to perform well throughout 2026, driven by ongoing policy support and consumer demand[26] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in external environments, policy effectiveness, and geopolitical tensions[6] - The coal market faces risks from domestic production exceeding expectations and downstream demand not meeting projections[34]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **AI transceiver market**, which is projected to experience significant growth, with the total addressable market (TAM) expected to triple from approximately **US$18 billion in 2025 to US$50 billion by 2028** driven by advancements in AI data center architectures [1][29]. Core Insights - **Transceiver Demand Growth**: - AI transceiver demand is anticipated to rise from **41 million units in 2025 to 95 million units by 2028**. High-end transceivers (800G and 1.6T) are expected to be the primary growth drivers, with unit volumes increasing from **20 million in 2025 to 80 million in 2028** [19][28]. - The growth is attributed to three main factors: expansion of AI data centers, strong capital expenditures (capex) from major cloud players, and continuous product innovation in transceivers [28]. - **CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) Impact**: - CPO is recognized as a legitimate long-term risk to traditional pluggable transceivers, but its impact is projected to be limited in the medium term, with demand dilution expected to be **~3% in 2026, ~11% in 2027, and ~16% in 2028** [17][26]. - Large-scale adoption of CPO is not expected before **2027-2028**, primarily due to manufacturing challenges and the need for a mature ecosystem [17][90]. Company-Specific Insights - **Eoptolink**: Upgraded to **Overweight** with a price target raised to **Rmb460**. The company is expected to gain market share in the 800G and 1.6T segments, likely achieving above-industry growth [49]. - **Suzhou TFC**: Price target increased to **Rmb371** but maintained at **Equal Weight** due to recent price rallies reflecting potential positive impacts from CPO development [50]. - **Coherent**: Seen as having better opportunities compared to Lumentum, with expectations of significant revenue contributions from CPO solutions [51]. - **Lumentum**: Despite strong performance, the stock is viewed as vulnerable due to high expectations for future earnings growth [52]. Market Dynamics - The **competitive landscape** is shifting with CPO posing a threat to traditional transceiver companies by integrating optical components directly into switch packages, which could disrupt existing business models [80][81]. - **Copper technology** continues to evolve, maintaining its dominance in certain applications, which adds competitive pressure on optical transceivers [85]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key stock recommendations based on the anticipated growth in the AI transceiver market and the potential impact of CPO: - **Eoptolink** and **LandMark** are identified as strong beneficiaries of the AI transceiver demand [75]. - **TSMC** and **ASE** are noted for their roles in CPO technology development, with expectations of significant contributions in the coming years [55][56]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the **availability of critical substrate materials** and the potential supply bottlenecks that could arise as the industry shifts towards CPO architecture [66]. - The **shift from discrete transceivers to CPO** could pose structural challenges for PCB and connector vendors, with some companies likely to face direct pressure from this transition [63][64]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the AI transceiver market and the implications of CPO technology on traditional transceiver companies, along with specific company recommendations and market dynamics.

Summary of Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb242,227 million (approximately US$35,061 million) [2] Industry Context - **Industry**: Optical Communication - **Key Drivers**: Demand for high-speed light engines driven by AI GPU/Network upgrades and infrastructure developments [4] Key Financial Metrics - **2023 Net Profit**: Rmb730 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb1.848, representing an 80.7% growth [3] - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb1,344 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.425, representing a 31.2% growth [3] - **2025 Estimated Net Profit**: Rmb2,389 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.081, representing a 27.0% growth [3] - **2026 Estimated Net Profit**: Rmb5,695 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb7.343, representing a 138.4% growth [3] - **2027 Estimated Net Profit**: Rmb13,836 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb17.839, representing a 143.0% growth [3] Investment Rating - **Rating**: Buy - **Target Price**: Rmb446 per share, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of Rmb311.580 [2][4] - **Expected Total Return**: 43.6% including a dividend yield of 0.5% [2] Catalysts - **Upcoming Events**: Anticipated positive stock reaction to Nvidia GTC (March 16-19) and OFC (March 15-19) due to the unveiling of a new CPO system design [1] - **Potential for Revenue Growth**: Better-than-expected CPO adoption could lead to new content and future revenue/earnings upside [1] Risks - **Downside Risks**: 1. Slower-than-expected new product development [6] 2. Slower global AI development [6] 3. Delayed AI infrastructure/data center investments [6] 4. China-US tech disputes [6] 5. Supply constraints in upstream components [6] 6. Rising competition [6] 7. Delayed CPO deployment [6] Strategic Insights - **Product Expansion**: The company is expanding its optical components product chain through M&As and is focusing on high-speed light engines, which could become a significant long-term driver [4] - **Market Opportunities**: High-speed light engines are expected to be utilized in emerging markets such as laser radar and medical testing [4] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Basis**: Target price based on a P/E ratio of 25.0x for 2027, adjusted for potential cannibalization effects in 2027 [5] Conclusion - Suzhou TFC Optical Communication is positioned for significant growth driven by advancements in AI and optical technologies, with a strong buy recommendation supported by robust financial projections and upcoming catalysts. However, investors should remain cautious of the outlined risks that could impact performance.

花旗闭门会-CPO 的演进路径和对中国光模块影响，技术架 构解析和看好天孚通信 20260227 摘要 2027 年 CPU 交换机基础假设为 20.9 万台，综合考虑横向扩展（4 万 台光模块相关交换机）和纵向扩展（6.9 万台）需求，以及上行链路容 量。光模块需求下调因升级需求驱动，需外部接口对接数据中心和 AI 集 群。 下一代机柜采用扩张式设计，单机柜可部署约 144 颗 GPU 芯片，高密 度计算需光模块替代铜缆。每个节点约需 648 个光引擎，FAU 数量相近； 外部光源（ELS）需求取决于通道带宽，用于交换机间通信和内部连接。 NVR 576 配备 24 个交换托盘组件，每个模块对应 6 个组件配置，整体 配置需匹配总传输带宽，保障 GPU 侧带宽需求。数据测算需在 GPU、 计算节点等维度验证，通过带宽与逻辑校验市场测算的合理性。 2027 年市场规模测算：FAU 连接器约 22 亿美元，ELS 约 77 亿美元， 光纤整形器约 33 亿美元，光纤托盘约 56 亿美元。下调可封装光传输展 望因 CSP 提前锁定产能，改变了对节奏与供需结构的判断。 Q&A 对 CPO 在供应链中的潜在落地时间点 ...

M Global Insight February 26, 2026 09:14 PM GMT Global Technology AI Transceivers: Growth Dominates Disruption Our global team has collaborated to assess the growth opportunity and disruption risk in the AI transceiver market. Industry TAM is likely to triple from ~US$18bn in 2025 to ~US$50bn by 2028, driven by scale-out, scale-up, and scale-across of AI data center architectures. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be ...

ID: 100104 EFFの原料 JANE TANE KEY TH 狙击龙虎榜 | 小林财联社 2026.03.01 19:51 早期日 【重点公司跟踪】 云南诸业：磷化铝是制作800G/1.6T光模块中光芯片的关键衬底材料。随着算力需求爆发，全球供需缺口预计高达70%，且供 给高度集中于美日企业（AXT、住友）,涨价趋势明确。全球光子学领导企业Coherent在2026年2月的财报中明确指出,磷化 姻的供需失衡至少将持续整个2026和2027年。花旗集团的分析师也认为2026—2027年磷化烟激光器供应将持续紧张，长期 协议已覆盖至2027年。云南猪业是国内少数能批量生产磷化银衬底的公司，产品已覆盖国内主流光模块/芯片厂商，占据"国 产替代"的有利身位。在"全球前三、国内第一"的行业格局中，具备极强的战略稀缺性。随着未来1.6T光模块向CPO（共封装 光学）技术演进，对上游高速率衬底材料的需求和要求进一步提升，公司作为国内衬底龙头，有望持续受益于这一技术迭代 趋势。 中曼石油：中曼石油是民营油气勘探龙头，构建了从装备制造到勘探开发的全产业链条，成本优势突出。目前中曼石油目前 已探明+评估的原油地质储量约1 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 国产算力逻辑春节后全面夯实 [Table_Title2] 通信 [Table_Summary] 1、国产算力逻辑春节后全面夯实：Token 调用量首超 美国 + 芯片拐点验证 + 政策基建双轮驱动 春节后，国产算力逻辑进一步夯实，由 Token 数量暴增、国产芯 片业绩拐点使得算力全链条确定性提升。当前时点， 短期地缘冲 突（美以-伊朗升级）可能放大 risk-off 情绪，需警惕海外不确 定性对全球 AI 投资节奏的扰动，但在国内市场需求相对具有韧 性，国产模型的成本/生态提供较强对冲，国产算力全链条有望 在政策+成本双轮驱动下持续稳健提升。在视频、编程等核心领 域有望加速催化应用落地，同时国内相关算力需求有望拉动硬件 设备和算力租赁相关市场景气度，对于边缘端算力分发也有受 益。相关受益标的包括算力租赁和第三方数据中心厂商：光环新 网、数据港、润泽科技、协创数据、东阳光、大卫科技等；国产 芯片和昇腾生态相关厂商：寒武纪、海光信息、华胜天成等；海 外共振+国产推理放量受益的光联接相关：天孚通信、 ...

AI 与无人机驱动光纤新周期 证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 通信 在全球 AI 算力基础设施投资加速的背景下，光纤光缆行业迎来显著景 气上行。光纤价格较 2025 年已实现翻倍以上增长，供需格局阶段性偏 紧，行业从传统电信需求驱动转向 AI 数据中心与光纤无人机驱动的新 周期。 【价格端：散纤价格不断上涨，供应商集采出现暂停】 自 2025年末以来，光纤光缆零售价格不断上涨。据讯石光通讯网2026 年 2 月 G.652.D 裸纤价格已突破 30 元/芯公里，实际成交价多集中于 40-50 元之间，部分渠道价甚至超过 50 元/芯公里，累计涨幅高达 94% —144%。 光纤价格上涨，导致光缆成本与运营商招标限价形成倒挂，集采出现 暂停。广东电信 2026 年 1 月启动了 2 个光缆集采项目招标，均因投标 人高于最高限价而被暂停。后续为保证集采招标成功进行，运营商可 能会提高集采价格以提高项目竞争力。 光纤出口价格上涨，相比 2025 年初已实现翻倍以上。自 2026 年起， 中国向俄罗斯出口的光纤材料价格已提高了 2.5 至 4 倍。以 G.652D ...