FICC日报 | 2026-02-11 3月份涨价能否成功尚不明，主力合约短期走势震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK7报价1270/2040，WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价1200/1900（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期 报价1135/1835，2月下半月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船 ...

2026年2月10日 欧线)。总近月关注开舱指引 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日成交 5 昨日持仓 | | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1.238.0 | -0. 39% | | 14. 384 | 31.132 | -295 - | 0. 46 | | 0. 94 | | | EC2606 | 1.553.0 | -0. 03% | | 2. 206 | 14.726 | -86 | 0. 15 | | 0. 33 | | | | | 本期 | | 2026/2/9 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS:欧洲航线 | | | 1.657.94 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of the February contract valuation is expected to be around 1700 points, and factors such as ship delays and the online cargo collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final settlement price [5] - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price support in March after the holiday [6] - For more distant contracts, there is intense speculation about the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [7] Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of February 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 60,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 52,502 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1743.00, 1268.20, 1568.20, 1630.50, 1131.80, and 1420.20 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - On February 1, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points [8] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery volume of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships is 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3] Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, with capacities of 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU in weeks 6 - 9. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, with capacities of 245,200 TEU, 321,000 TEU, 365,000 TEU, 317,000 TEU, and 319,000 TEU in weeks 10 - 14. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, with capacities of 291,300 TEU, 317,700 TEU, 266,500 TEU, and 241,200 TEU in weeks 15 - 18. There were 12 blank sailings in February, and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBN in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The full resumption of the Red Sea has no clear schedule, and multiple conditions need to be met. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route has been adjusted, and subsequent adjustments to AE12 and AE15 services are also planned [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [6] Strategies Unilateral - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate [9] Arbitrage - None at present [9]

2026 年 2 月 4 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，关注中东地缘谈判及 船司复航进度 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 1.15% | 612 | 1,883 | -456 | 0.33 | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,237.9 | 5.22% | 29,296 | 34,229 | 423 | 0.86 | 0.97 | | | EC2606 | 1,533.7 | 2.57% | 3,147 | 13,458 | 860 | 0.23 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/2 | | 单 位 | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,792.14 | | | 点 | -3.6% | | | 运 价 | 美西航线 SCFIS： | | 1,101.40 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, prices gradually declined, and the pre - holiday freight rate drive was weak. The market is gambling on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt shipping schedules and shipping company pricing strategies. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and the short - selling direction has an advantage before the Spring Festival. The delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate greatly due to the uncertainty of the Suez Canal's reopening time [1][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 29, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,530.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,978.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1717.50, 1249.70, 1576.00, 1645.40, 1151.20, and 1413.70 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI prices were 1595 US dollars/TEU for Shanghai - Europe route, 2084 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US West route, and 2896 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US East route. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS was 1859.31 points for Shanghai - Europe and 1294.32 points for Shanghai - US West [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. For ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 80 ships with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10 - 14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors affect shipping routes. Maersk announced on January 15 that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service as the stability in the Red Sea improved. CMA has decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex international situation [2][6] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaics and other products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping schedules of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot price of container shipping to Europe shows signs of peaking and falling, with the Shanghai Port to European base port freight rate dropping for the second consecutive week, and the SCFIS index also falling in sync. Multiple shipping companies have lowered their quotes for late January, indicating that the inflection point of the spot price high has appeared. However, the sudden change in the Red Sea re - navigation situation may boost far - month contracts. [8] - The overall situation of the China's export container transportation market from January 19th to 23rd was weak, with freight rates on long - distance routes falling, dragging down the comprehensive index. The future economic prospects of Europe, the United States, and other regions are not optimistic, which may affect the container shipping market. [9][10] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port to European base port freight rate dropped by 4.8% to $1595/TEU last weekend, and the SCFIS index fell by 4.9% to 1859.31 points on Monday. Multiple shipping companies, including Maersk and OOCL, have lowered their quotes for late January. [8] - Red Sea Situation: After Maersk announced the rerouting of some routes back to the Red Sea, it changed its plan due to the complex international situation. The continuous frictions in the Red Sea region and the intensifying US - Iran situation may affect market sentiment and boost far - month contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Transportation Market: From January 19th to 23rd, the market was weak, with freight rates on long - distance routes falling, and the comprehensive index dropping by 7.4% to 1457.86 points on January 23rd. [9] - Economic Situation: China's industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The future of the Chinese economy is expected to remain stable. However, the economic prospects of Europe, the United States, and other regions are not optimistic. [9][10] - Regional Situations: In the European route, geopolitical risks have increased due to the US's proposal to acquire Greenland and Trump's tariff threats. In the North American route, US government actions have increased market uncertainty, and the US economy faces challenges such as a weak labor market and inflation pressure. [9][10] - International Events: The second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire has faced some problems, and there are differences between Netanyahu and Trump. Tensions between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi - backed Yemeni government have resurfaced. [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index on January 26th was 1859.31 points, down 4.9% from January 19th. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1294.32 points, down 0.8% from January 19th. [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures: The trading data of multiple contracts on January 29th are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc., with different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. [6] - Shipping - Related Data: Multiple charts show data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates. [18][21]

Group 1: Policy Evolution - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed the vote on the net-zero framework, impacting the industry's expectations for unified emission reduction rules[9] - The EU's shipping emission reduction policy is set to be implemented, requiring ships over 5,000 gross tons to monitor and report greenhouse gas emissions starting January 1, 2024[16] - China has introduced a series of new policies to promote energy transition and green shipping, aiming for over 50% market share of LNG and methanol-powered vessels by 2025[20] Group 2: Progress in Emission Reduction - Orders for new energy and clean energy vessels have rapidly increased, with 51.6% of current orders by total tonnage being for such vessels[28] - LNG fuel ships dominate the new energy vessel market, with 1,000 LNG fuel ships on order as of October 2025, accounting for 73% and 69% of new orders in 2024 and 2025 respectively[28] - The application of energy efficiency measures is widespread, with nearly 50% of vessels using technologies like propeller ducting and speed reduction[41] Group 3: Challenges in Green Transition - The uncertainty of market mechanisms and economic incentives is a significant barrier, with the IMO's net-zero framework still unresolved, affecting investment confidence[48] - The high cost of green fuels presents a major challenge, with green methanol prices reaching $1,300 to $1,600 per ton, significantly higher than fossil fuels[51] - Emerging technologies pose new risks, as LNG, methanol, and ammonia fuels introduce complexities in safety and operational protocols[52]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of peaking, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling after rising, and multiple shipping companies lowering their quotes for late January. The inflection point of the spot high has likely appeared. However, the sudden change in the Red Sea re - navigation situation may boost the sentiment of far - month contracts [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and started to fall, with the SCFIS index also dropping slightly. Many shipping companies, including Maersk, OOCL, HMM, and ONE, have lowered their quotes for late January, indicating a signal of shipping companies reducing prices to attract cargo and suggesting that the spot high - point inflection has emerged. - Red Sea Situation: Maersk changed its decision on the route, diverting ships on certain routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex international situation, which may boost the sentiment of far - month contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Overview (January 12 - 16): To cope with the "Spring Festival" holiday, the cargo volume increased slightly, while the freight rates on ocean routes and the comprehensive index decreased. The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index dropped by 4.4% to 1574.12 points on January 16 [9]. - European Route: The Sentix euro - zone investor confidence index in January was better than expected, showing improved investor confidence. The shipping demand was stable with a slight increase, the average container utilization rate in Shanghai Port was nearly full, but the route freight rate dropped slightly, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling 2.5% to $1676/TEU on January 16 [9]. - Mediterranean Route: Similar to the European route, the spot market booking price dropped more than that of the European route, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to Mediterranean base ports falling 7.7% to $2983/TEU on January 16 [9]. - North American Route: The US labor market was stabilizing, the shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, the average container utilization rate in Shanghai Port was over 90%, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The Shanghai Port's export freight rates to the US West and East base ports were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively on January 16, with a 1.1% decrease and a 1.2% increase compared to the previous period [10]. - Contract Adjustment: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will adjust the container shipping index (European line) futures contract months from February 10, 2026, adding EC2605, EC2607, EC2609, and adding EC2703 on March 31, 2026 [10]. - Gaza Cease - fire Plan: The second - stage plan of the Gaza cease - fire has differences between Netanyahu and Trump, and although there are many problems in the first - stage plan, Trump hopes to enter the second stage [10]. - Yemen Situation: The Houthi armed forces warned Saudi Arabia not to take military action, while the Yemeni President's Leadership Council announced the establishment of a supreme military committee to prepare for the next - stage action if the Houthi armed forces continue to reject the peace solution [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 0.1% from January 12 to January 19, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 1.4% during the same period [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market: The trading data of multiple contracts on January 21 are presented, including EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, etc., with details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: There are charts showing the container ship capacity in Europe, the global container ship order backlog, the Shanghai - Europe base port freight rate, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [18][22]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合计交付运力215.5万TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付80艘，合计121.3万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付13艘，合计277672TEU。交付预 期层面，12000-16999TEU船舶：2026年交付78.12万TEU（53艘），2027年交付94.45万TEU（64艘），2028年交付121.2 万TEU（82艘），2029年交付41.54万TEU（29艘）。 17000+TEU船舶： 2026年交付21.04万TEU（9艘），2027年交付86.28万TEU（40艘），2028年交付157.34万TEU（78 艘）,2029年交付137.55万TEU（67艘）。总体来看，2026年超大型船舶交付压力相对较小，2027年、2028年以及2029 年17000+TEU船舶年度交付量均超过40艘。2026年上半年交付17000+TEU以上船舶仅4艘。 动态供给：1月份月度剩余2周均运力34.22万TEU，WEEK4/5周运力分别为40.86/27.58 ...