行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 01 月 26 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 《整车出海、机器人预期强化；同时关注 业绩确定性白马——2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 联系人 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 从成本到数据，机器人进步新范式 看好 ——机器人行业发展核心竞争力探讨 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 ⚫ 新能源汽车与人形机器人两大硬科技产业具备高度同构性，2026 年人形机器人的发展 节点对标 2012-2014 年的新能源汽车，而新能源汽车的产业演进路径也为机器人行业 提供了清晰的阶段对标框架。二者均依托成熟大规模制造业与 AI 算法跃迁，国内新能 源车借国家战略驱动爆发，完成政策到市场、技术到生态的演进；2026 年机器人技术 刚迈过"可用"门槛，政策推动、资本热度空前，与彼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a strong performance in cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals, while the hard technology sector faced pressure. The Robot ETF fund (159213) saw a significant drop of 2.51% at the close, with trading volume increasing sharply [1]. Group 1: Robot ETF Fund Performance - The majority of the index component stocks of the Robot ETF fund (159213) experienced a pullback, with notable movements including a rise of over 12% for Zhongkong Technology and a drop of over 7% for Top Group. Other stocks like Shuanghuan Transmission and Greentech also fell by over 5% [3][4]. - The top ten component stocks of the Robot ETF fund include Keda Xunfei, Huichuan Technology, and Top Group, with varying performance and estimated weights in the index [4]. Group 2: Human-Robot Sector Developments - The human-robot sector is witnessing rich catalysts, including the announcement that Galaxy General Robotics will be the designated embodied large model robot for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, following the previous year's appearance by Yushu Robotics [5]. - Recent developments in the human-robot sector include the establishment of a humanoid robot research institute by OpenAI and Tesla's plans for consumer sales of humanoid robots by 2027. Additionally, Yushu Technology has received two design patents for humanoid robots [5][6]. Group 3: Market Growth Projections - According to IDC, the global humanoid robot market is expected to experience explosive growth, with an estimated shipment of approximately 18,000 units by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 508%. Chinese manufacturers are expected to dominate this market [6]. - East Wu Securities highlights that the core transformation in the development of humanoid robots will be driven by consumer access to practical products, with significant events anticipated in Q1 2026 related to Tesla's Optimus V3 robot [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Guolian Minsheng Securities emphasizes the importance of Tesla's production progress and technological iterations, with the Optimus V3 set to begin mass production in 2026. The IPO processes of domestic robot manufacturers are also expected to serve as significant catalysts for the sector [8][9]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading automotive robot manufacturers may undergo reconstruction, as current market valuations do not reflect the expected contributions from robotics [9].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% on January 26, with 10 sectors experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals, which rose by 4.57% and 3.18% respectively [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were defense & military and automotive, which dropped by 4.47% and 2.31% respectively [2] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 114.32 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with six sectors seeing net inflows [2] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.31%, with a net outflow of 9.27 billion yuan in main funds [3] - Out of 284 stocks in the automotive sector, 31 stocks rose while 246 stocks fell, with 5 stocks hitting the daily limit down [3] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Huamao Technology with 87.69 million yuan, followed by Smart Agriculture and Zhaomin Technology with 71.94 million yuan and 53.44 million yuan respectively [3] Fund Flow Analysis - The automotive sector had 76 stocks with net inflows, while 27 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Shanzigaoke with 638.27 million yuan, Chaojie Co. with 535.61 million yuan, and Top Group with 497.19 million yuan [5] - The top gainers in terms of fund inflow included Huamao Technology, Smart Agriculture, and Zhaomin Technology, while the top losers included Shanzigaoke, Chaojie Co., and Top Group [5]

开源 证券研报指出， 拓普集团是国内汽零行业稀缺的科技平台型企业， 汽车零部件业务覆盖8大产品 线条，并积极布局机器人等新兴领域，在客户、产品的持续拓展下，业绩有望持续增长。假设核心客户 2026/2027年 人形机器人量产5/20万台，考虑机器人业务的业绩增厚，该行预计公司2025-2027年营收 296/359/454亿元，归母净利润28.3/36.2/48.5亿元，当前市值对应PE51/40/30X，维持"买入"评级。 ...

开源证券研报指出，拓普集团是国内汽零行业稀缺的科技平台型企业，汽车零部件业务覆盖8大产品线 条，并积极布局机器人等新兴领域，在客户、产品的持续拓展下，业绩有望持续增长。假设核心客户 2026/2027年人形机器人量产5/20万台，考虑机器人业务的业绩增厚，该行预计公司2025-2027年营收 296/359/454亿元，归母净利润28.3/36.2/48.5亿元，当前市值对应PE51/40/30X，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in technology and energy storage systems (ESS) [1] Company Insights CSI Solar (688472 CH) - **ESS Growth**: Projected global shipments of ESS for 2026E are expected to reach 14-17 GWh, primarily driven by demand in non-US markets [2] - **Backlog**: The current backlog is approximately USD 3 billion, with high-quality orders concentrated in overseas high-margin regions, indicating strong potential for profitability [2] - **Risk Management**: The company is involved in counter-litigation regarding potential US antidumping duties, assessing the overall risk as low [3] - **Supply Chain**: Currently relies on external sourcing for battery cells but believes it can pass future price increases to customers effectively [3] Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH) - **Order Projections**: Anticipates CNY 6 billion in new orders for 2025E, with expectations to rise to CNY 10 billion for 2026E [4] - **Segment Contributions**: Orders for 2026E are expected to include CNY 6 billion from solar (mainly overseas heterojunction) and CNY 3.5-4.0 billion from non-solar segments [4] - **Long-term Outlook**: Projects semiconductor revenue to scale up to CNY 10 billion by 2029-30E amid diversification efforts [4] Xizi Clean Energy Equipment (002534 CH) - **Growth Drivers**: Long-term growth is supported by overseas market expansion, energy storage operations, and the nuclear power segment, which currently generates CNY 1-2 billion in revenue [5] - **Market Challenges**: Faces localization and policy barriers for entering the US market, with a focus on complementary exports in the short term [5] Shuanghuan Driveline (002472 CH) - **EV Segment Growth**: Expected to generate approximately CNY 4 billion in revenue for 2025E, with double-digit growth projected for 2026E [7] - **ICE Business Decline**: Anticipates a revenue decline of 5-6% in the ICE segment for 2026E due to waning demand [7] - **Construction Machinery**: Projected single-digit revenue growth in 2026E, driven by potential order increases from key clients [7] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of navigating policy uncertainty and the need for new product development in the advanced manufacturing sector [1] - Companies are focusing on international markets to mitigate risks associated with domestic policy changes and market saturation [5][7] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call, providing insights into the advanced manufacturing sector and specific company performances and projections.

Summary of Conference Call on Magic Technology Company Overview - **Company Name**: Magic Technology - **Industry**: Automotive Parts, specifically focusing on plastic components and exterior parts like bumpers - **Position**: Leading private enterprise in the automotive bumper sector in China with over 30 years of experience in the industry [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Position**: Magic Technology is positioned as a leading player in the automotive exterior parts market, benefiting from the domestic automotive supply chain's localization and the growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1][2] - **Market Growth**: The automotive exterior parts market is expected to grow at a rate faster than the overall automotive market due to increasing demands for lightweight materials and smart automotive technologies [1][8] - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with leading companies like Magic Technology expected to gain market share as the industry matures [2][9] - **Client Base**: The company serves a diverse client base, including traditional automotive giants like BMW and Mercedes, as well as NEV manufacturers like Tesla [5][6] - **Revenue Trends**: Despite challenges from the pandemic, the company has maintained a solid revenue trend, with expectations for steady growth in profits, particularly from overseas markets [6][10] Additional Important Points - **Innovation in Robotics**: Magic Technology is exploring new growth opportunities in the robotics sector, leveraging its expertise in lightweight materials and manufacturing processes that are applicable to both automotive and robotic components [2][10][12] - **Production Capabilities**: The company has established a robust production network, including factories in various regions and overseas, which enhances its ability to meet client demands [4][9] - **Financial Projections**: The company is projected to achieve a profit of approximately 600 million by 2026, with significant potential for stock price appreciation based on current market valuations [13] Conclusion - Magic Technology is well-positioned for future growth in both the automotive and robotics sectors, with a strong focus on innovation and market expansion. The company’s strategic initiatives and solid client relationships are expected to drive sustained profitability and market share growth in the coming years [1][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

Group 1 - Tesla plans to conduct training for its humanoid robot Optimus at its Austin factory, aiming to accelerate the industrial application of the robot through real-world data collection and practical training [1] - Elon Musk stated that by the end of this year, Optimus will be able to perform more complex tasks, primarily in industrial environments, with public sales expected to begin next year [1] - The Tesla supply chain is entering a phase of gradual convergence, with recent progress indicating that the V3 version has received top-level approval, marking a significant shift from the previous state of continuous modifications [1] Group 2 - By 2026, Tesla's third-generation product mass production is expected to drive an industry inflection point, with plans to sell robots to consumers by 2027 and complete complex tasks by the end of 2026 [2] - Tesla has issued tenders for 1 million production lines to suppliers like Bozhong Precision since 2025, with Bozhong receiving orders exceeding 100 million yuan, and the assembly line for dexterous hands has already started [2] - The humanoid robot sector has seen significant absolute returns since December 2025, with an index return rate of 15%-20%, and is expected to gain more attention as supply chain orders materialize [2] Group 3 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Securities Robot Industry Index (980022) rose by 1.69%, with notable increases in stocks such as Liyuanheng and Aerospace Zhizhuang [3] - The Penghua Robot ETF (159278) increased by 1.53%, with a recent price of 1.2 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 1.01% over the past week [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Robot Industry Index accounted for 39.32% as of December 31, 2025, including companies like Lide Harmony and Stone Technology [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates a significant structural differentiation in the market, with small and mid-cap stocks performing better than large-cap stocks, suggesting a continued spring rally [4][6] - The net outflow from broad-based ETFs is not a sign of market exit but rather a healthy adjustment, indicating that investors are reallocating towards more flexible non-broad-based ETFs [5][6] - The report highlights that the average daily trading volume is crucial for triggering style switches between small and large caps, with a historical tendency for small caps to outperform during periods of increased trading volume [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The report suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on the market, emphasizing a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with specific recommendations for sectors such as AI hardware, military, media, and renewable energy [7] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the PPI and the benefits of cyclical sectors in the context of anti-involution trends, recommending investments in sectors like chemicals, power, and machinery [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - SpaceX's second-generation Starlink system is expected to launch in 2027, significantly enhancing internet service capacity and creating investment opportunities in the related supply chain [16][18] - The report notes that the tea beverage sector is experiencing strong growth, with companies like Luckin Coffee expanding rapidly, indicating a robust consumer trend in the food and beverage industry [22][23] - The agricultural sector is facing supply pressures, particularly in pork prices, with current prices at 12.92 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase but potential downward pressure post-holiday [28][29] Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - The report highlights a notable increase in the issuance of equity funds, with a 56% year-on-year growth in new fund shares, indicating a positive trend for the financial IT and brokerage sectors [49][50] - It mentions that the public fund performance benchmark guidelines have been established, which will enhance the performance assessment and compensation management systems within the industry [50]