Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in market attention towards the real estate chain, with significant weekly gains of 5.21% and 9.23% for the Shenwan real estate and building materials sectors respectively. The rebound is attributed to several factors, including a substantial rise in second-hand housing transactions in key cities, a positive earnings forecast from Poly Developments, and limited downward space for traditional real estate companies [3] - The report suggests that the real estate market is showing positive short-term signals, with ongoing favorable factors accumulating. It highlights the potential for market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027, driven by easing down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which reduce the financial burden on homebuyers [3] Market Monitoring - Transaction volumes have shown a rebound, with new home sales in 50 key cities reaching 13,000 units, a 6.7% increase week-on-week, while second-hand home sales in 20 key cities reached 20,000 units, up 5.2% week-on-week. However, year-on-year comparisons show a 24% decline for new homes and a 6.7% increase for second-hand homes [8][9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 90.29 million square meters of inventory across 16 cities, reflecting a 0.5% decrease and a decommissioning cycle of 21 months [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly increase of 5.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector stands at 63.16, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.08, indicating a valuation at the 95.64 percentile over the past five years [21][22] - The report notes that 78.9 billion yuan of real estate bonds were issued this week, with a total repayment amount of 109.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -30.9 billion yuan [16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Real estate companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [3]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for increased policy support [5] - In major cities, the transaction volume for new homes has seen a significant decline compared to second-hand homes, indicating weaker demand [4] - The market anticipates that other first-tier cities will follow Beijing's lead in optimizing purchase restrictions after observing declining transaction data [5] Summary by Sections Core Cities - Beijing: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 558 units (up 16.3% year-on-year), while new home transactions averaged 80 units (down 45% year-on-year) [2] - Shanghai: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 609 units (up 10% year-on-year), with new home transactions remaining flat [2] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 201 units (up 68% year-on-year), while new home transactions dropped 57% [3] National Key Cities - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [5] - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary firms as the proportion of second-hand home transactions continues to rise, citing companies like I Love My Home [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [6] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant reduction in holdings, with public funds and northbound capital reaching new lows in their investment proportions. The market is currently stabilizing, with a focus on recovery in core cities, particularly first-tier cities [1][2] - Recommended investment opportunities include companies with strong credit, urban presence, and product quality, as well as those with robust operational capabilities to manage cash flow during market adjustments [1] - The report highlights a shift in holdings concentration, with Beike rising to the top position among public fund holdings, indicating a narrowing of investor divergence in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 38.8 billion yuan, a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The sector's holdings accounted for 0.43% of total stock investments, down 0.19 percentage points [2] - The real estate sector index fell by 8.9%, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors, primarily due to declining fundamentals and some companies hitting new stock price lows [2] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital's total holdings in real estate stocks were 11.5 billion yuan, a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter, representing 0.45% of total northbound holdings [4] - The top five real estate stocks held by northbound capital include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies with "real estate+" attributes [4] Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include: - Yuexiu Property (123 HK) with a target price of 7.06 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Longfor Group (960 HK) with a target price of 15.21 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Greentown Service (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) with a target price of 12.79 CNY and a "Buy" rating [8] - CR Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 HKD and a "Buy" rating [8] - Others include companies like Greenland China, and Hong Kong local firms benefiting from market recovery [1][8] Performance Insights - Beike's market value increased significantly, reflecting a strong investor interest, while other companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou saw reductions in their holdings [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency and cash flow management for companies navigating the current market challenges [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The monitored enterprises acquired a total of 30 land parcels with a total transaction amount of 14.5 billion yuan [4] - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 8.44 billion yuan [4] Land Acquisition - In Shanghai, Yuexiu Property secured a residential land parcel in Pudong New District for 4.57 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,035 yuan/m² [8] - In Huzhou, a residential land parcel was acquired by Deqing County Transportation Engineering Construction Co. for 323 million yuan, with a floor price of 5,954 yuan/m² [9] - In Dalian, a joint venture between Poly and JinDi acquired a site for 736 million yuan, with a floor price of 7,454 yuan/m² [10] - In Wenzhou, Zhongnan Industry secured a residential land parcel for 403 million yuan, with a floor price of 12,582 yuan/m² [11] Investment Financing - Xinjing New Town Development Group successfully issued 440 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term at an interest rate of 2.7% [12][13] - Lianfa Group issued 250 million yuan in green medium-term notes with a 3+3 year term at an interest rate of 2.6% [15] - Xinda Real Estate received approval for a company bond issuance of 5.75 billion yuan [16] - Shanghai Construction Group successfully issued 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a 5+N year term at an interest rate of 2.9% [17] Corporate Dynamics - China Overseas Development signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Sun Hung Kai Properties to deepen collaboration in project construction and other areas [18]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任 何責任。 （在香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：00123） 內幕消息 盈利警告 本公告乃越秀地產股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據第571章證券及期貨條例（「《證券及期貨條 例》」）第XIVA部的內幕消息條文（定義見上市規則）及香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則 （「上市規則」）第13.09(2)條作出。 本公司（連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）謹此知會本公司股東及 潛在投資者，根據本集團截至2025年12月31日止年度（「2025年度」）的未經審核綜合管理層 賬目的初步評估及董事會目前可獲得的資料，預期2025年度的權益持有人應佔盈利較截至 2024年12月31日止年度（「2024年度」）同比下降至約人民幣0.5億元至人民幣1億元，降幅約 為90%至95%；核心淨利潤較2024年度同比下降至約人民幣2.5億元至人民幣3.5億元，降幅 約為80%至85%。核心淨利潤是指權益持有人應 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown a strong start in 2026, with stock price rebounds attributed to overall market risk appetite and valuation increases, recent policy optimizations in Beijing, and a decline in personal housing sales tax rates [3] - The report suggests three main investment lines: companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, Hong Kong real estate benefiting from market stabilization, and firms with stable cash flow and dividends [3] - The policy outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations for further adjustments in housing loan rates and other supportive measures [4][6] Policy Summary - Recent policies include a reduction in the personal housing sales tax for properties held for over two years, the introduction of commercial real estate REITs, and tax refunds for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within a year [5][6] - The central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to reduce housing purchase costs [6][7] Market Conditions - January 2026 saw improved transaction volumes compared to December 2025, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes [17][20] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 27.9% year-on-year in January, while second-hand homes saw a 2.1% increase [20] Land Market - Land transaction volumes increased significantly in December 2025, with a 152.7% rise in transaction area compared to the previous month, although the average land supply decreased by 60.1% [30] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 3.9% increase in land acquisition amounts in 2025, with notable companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao leading in land acquisition intensity [38][42] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's PE ratio is currently at 62.47, significantly higher than the broader market's 14.17, indicating a high valuation level [46]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai, which continues to lead in sales performance [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a general downturn in the real estate market, luxury properties are experiencing a unique surge, with several projects achieving sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a growing consensus on the value of "certainty" in asset allocation during uncertain times [3][11]. - The luxury market is characterized by a significant demand for properties priced over 10 million yuan, with 21 out of the top 30 projects achieving this threshold, indicating a shift towards higher-value transactions [13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The top 30 projects in key cities are predominantly led by state-owned enterprises, with about 80% of these projects being developed by such entities, showcasing a trend towards collaborative development to mitigate risks [12]. - Shanghai dominates the luxury market, accounting for 13 out of the 30 top projects, with a notable resilience in high-end demand despite overall market adjustments [7][11]. Sales Performance - In 2025, the luxury segment showed a mere 2% decline in transaction volume for properties priced over 10 million yuan, while overall new residential sales in 25 key cities dropped by 22% [7][11]. - The report notes that the average price for luxury properties has crossed the 100,000 yuan per square meter mark, with several projects exceeding 150,000 yuan per square meter [13][19]. Consumer Preferences - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly prioritizing properties that offer unique locations, quality services, and features that meet their evolving needs, such as efficient space utilization and enhanced living experiences [14][16]. - The integration of cultural elements and advanced technology in property design is becoming essential to appeal to affluent buyers, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations towards lifestyle and identity [17][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a long-term trend of market differentiation, where high-end properties will continue to thrive due to their perceived value and certainty, while ordinary residential markets may face ongoing challenges [19].