作者 | 第一财经 刘晓洁 2025.11. 03 本文字数：980，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 北京时间11月3日，马斯克（Elon Musk）和OpenAI CEO 奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）掀起新一轮口 水战。奥尔特曼发帖称，"我帮助你把原本以为已经夭折的组织，变成了有史以来规模最大的非营利 组织。" "你说我们成功率为0%。现在你们拥有一家很棒的人工智能公司，我们也有。"奥尔特曼喊话马斯克: 我们难道不能都翻过这一页吗？ 奥尔特曼提到的人工智能公司是马斯克在2023年创立的大模型初创xAI，公司旗下Grok系列模型也 在模型能力上领先。马斯克曾表示，创立xAI就是为阻止人工智能领域出现"一家独大"的局面，正面 对抗OpenAI。 奥尔特曼因OpenAI的治理问题而与马斯克关系恶化，双方一直在公开场合互相批评对方，这次口水 战看起来还未结束。 事情起源于前几天奥尔特曼的一则吐槽帖，他在X平台上表示，他2018年花了4.5万美元订了特斯拉 Roadster汽车，但一直跳票到现在也未收到，希望退款却被拒绝。这某种程度上是对特斯拉和马斯 克的一次暗讽。 一天后马斯克在其帖子下挑起另一个话题，称"你偷了一个非 ...

奥尔特曼喊话马斯克:不能都翻过这一页吗？ you know as well as anyone a structure like what openai has now is required to make tha happen. 由 Google 翻译自英语 我帮助你把原本以为已经夭折的组织,变成了有史以 规模最大的非营利组织。 你比任何人都清楚，要实现这一点， 需要像 OpenA 在这样的架构。 = Elon Musk @ × @elonmusk · 1天 You stole a non-profit 03:28 · 2025/11/3 · 156万 次查看 "你说我们成功率为0%。现在你们拥有一家很棒的人工智能公司，我们也有。"奥尔特曼喊话马斯克:我们难道不能都翻过这一页吗？ 北京时间11月3日，马斯克（Elon Musk）和OpenAI CEO 奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）掀起新一轮口水战。奥尔特曼发帖称，"我帮助你把原本以为已经夭折的 组织，变成了有史以来规模最大的非营利组织。" Sam Altman 9 $ @sama i helped turn the thing you left for ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that while AI has made significant advancements, it will not instantaneously surpass human intelligence, and its development can be categorized into two phases: breakthrough and commoditization of intelligence [1][5][42]. Group 1: AI Development Phases - AI development can be divided into two stages: the first stage focuses on unlocking new capabilities when AI struggles with certain tasks, while the second stage involves the rapid replication of these capabilities once AI can perform them effectively [5][30]. - The cost of achieving specific performance benchmarks in AI has been decreasing over the years, indicating a trend towards commoditization [5][12]. Group 2: Knowledge Accessibility - AI is facilitating the democratization of knowledge, making previously high-barrier fields like programming and biohacking accessible to the general public [15]. - The time required to access public knowledge has been significantly reduced, moving from hours in the pre-internet era to seconds in the AI era [14][12]. Group 3: Verifiability and AI - The "Verifier's Law" states that any task that can be verified will eventually be solved by AI, leading to the emergence of various benchmarking standards [16][41]. - Tasks that are easy to verify but difficult to generate will be prioritized for AI automation, creating new entrepreneurial opportunities for defining measurable goals for AI [30][41]. Group 4: Asymmetry in Task Difficulty - There exists an asymmetry in task difficulty where some tasks are easy to verify but hard to generate, such as Sudoku puzzles versus website development [17][18]. - The development speed of AI varies significantly across different tasks, influenced by factors such as digitization, data availability, and the nature of the task [35][36]. Group 5: Future Implications - The future of AI will see a jagged edge of intelligence, where different tasks will evolve at varying rates, and there will not be a singular moment of "superintelligence" emergence [31][42]. - The flow of information will become frictionless, and the boundaries of AI will be determined by what can be defined and verified [43].

（原标题：马斯克称五年后手机和App将消失；安世中国回应荷方晶圆断供） 21世纪经济报道新质生产力研究院综合报道 早上好，新的一天又开始了。在过去的24小时内，科技行业发生了哪些有意思的事情？来跟21tech一起看看吧。 【巨头风向标】 马斯克称五年后手机和App将消失 日前，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在最新的采访中表示，未来五到六年内，人类所消费的大多数内容都将由AI生成。马斯克认为，届时人们将不再使 用传统意义上的手机，或是说现在被称为"手机"的设备，实质上会演变成AI推理的"边缘节点"。它仍会保留通信所需的无线电模块，但核心逻辑 将转变为服务器端AI与设备端AI的实时互动，实时生成用户想看到的任何视频内容。他进一步指出，未来将不再需要操作系统或App的概念，设 备只承担显示画面、播放音频等功能，同时尽可能深度集成AI能力。 安世中国回应荷方晶圆断供：库存充足 11月2日，安世半导体中国有限公司官微发布致客户公告函称，相信大家已经获悉，荷兰安世半导体单方面决定自2025年10月26日起停止向位于东 莞的封装测试工厂（ATGD）供应晶圆。在致客户的函件中，荷兰安世半导体声称此举系所谓的"当地管理层近期未能遵守 ...

OpenAI CEO山姆.奥尔特曼在与微软CEO萨蒂亚.纳德拉的访谈中否认了OpenAI计划明年上市的报 道。"我们没有这么具体的计划，"奥尔特曼表示，"我是个现实主义者，我认为这件事终有一天会发 生，但我不明白为什么有人要写这些报道。我们既没有具体日期，也没有董事会决议之类的安排。我只 是认为这是事物最终的发展方向。"(科创板日报) ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global equity strategy**, with a focus on the **AI sector** and its implications for investment strategies across various markets, including **emerging markets (EM)** and **developed markets**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Bubble Concerns**: - The predominant question from clients was whether the market is in an AI bubble. The response indicates that the significant capital expenditure (capex) in AI, amounting to **USD 700 billion** in flagship projects, suggests a robust investment environment rather than a bubble. Current capex as a share of GDP is **3.8%**, higher than during the dot-com bubble, but capex as a share of operating cash flows is around **40%**, lower than the **70%** seen in the early 2000s [4][5][19]. 2. **Generative AI Market Potential**: - The total addressable market (TAM) for generative AI is projected to grow from **USD 40 billion** in 2022 to **USD 1.3 trillion** by 2032, reflecting a **43% CAGR**. The TAM for large language models (LLM) alone could reach **USD 500 billion** by 2030 [5][11]. 3. **Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)**: - The OBBBA is expected to reduce the cost of capital for manufacturing by **15%**, incentivizing tech companies to increase investments. Key provisions include **100% capex depreciation** and enhanced manufacturing investment credits, which significantly improve the economics of AI and semiconductor investments [6][7][19]. 4. **Risks to Bullish View**: - Two main risks were highlighted: - **AI Momentum Bursts**: If AI adoption fails to meet expectations, it could lead to negative earnings revisions, particularly affecting the "Magnificent 7" tech companies that constitute **33%** of the S&P 500 [20][21]. - **Overheating**: A surge in AI and data center projects could lead to inflationary pressures, particularly in construction, which could impact market expectations for interest rate cuts [22][23]. 5. **Emerging Markets (EM) Outlook**: - EM equities have outperformed the US by **8%** year-to-date, with expectations for continued momentum due to factors like Fed easing and reduced tariff uncertainties. Key preferences include Chinese equities, Mexico, and undervalued markets like Indonesia and Türkiye [37][38]. 6. **Valuation Concerns**: - There is skepticism regarding the potential for further valuation increases, especially in the US, where the market trades at **23x forward PE**. However, the ROE-COE framework suggests that the US market is fairly valued, with potential for COE to decrease as the Fed eases [69][70]. 7. **Underweight Position on Japan**: - Despite bullish sentiment on Japan, the company maintains an underweight position due to concerns about the impact of fiscal policy, trade vulnerabilities, and relatively high valuations compared to other markets [85][86]. 8. **Investor Sentiment on AI**: - Investors are seeking hedges against potential AI market corrections, with a notable shift towards Asian tech stocks, particularly TSMC and Tencent, which are perceived as having more attractive valuations compared to US counterparts [98][99][100]. 9. **European Market Dynamics**: - European equities have lost momentum, with concerns about the effectiveness of German fiscal stimulus. However, there is optimism regarding European banks and defense stocks, which are expected to benefit from structural changes in defense spending [117][120][121]. Other Important Insights - **AI Adoption and Productivity**: Evidence suggests that AI adoption is accelerating, with **49%** of US companies now having paid AI model subscriptions. This is expected to lead to significant productivity gains, with potential margin expansion for S&P 500 companies by **2030** [49][50][54]. - **Market Concentration**: The concentration of the largest companies in the US equity market is at elevated levels, which poses risks if any of these companies underperform [26][27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the global equity market, particularly in relation to AI and emerging markets.

30 October 2025 Want to find out more about our themes? Subscribe to this periodical here. You can also read our Guide to HSBC Global Investment Research. Why are VC investors still so bullish on tech? Our proprietary survey looks at headwinds and tailwinds in private markets. Read: HSBC Funding the Future Survey Nine Themes Talking Points Multi-Asset Tech disruptors – what's driving change? Welcome to Talking Points, Global Investment Research's monthly look at the key reports covering our nine themes and ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and their implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Decision to Halt Balance Sheet Reduction** The Federal Reserve announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet in December, slightly earlier than some market expectations, aligning with overall liquidity trends. The current securities held by the Fed account for just under 21% of nominal GDP, indicating a cautious risk management approach aimed at ensuring financial system stability [7][1][3]. 2. **Interest Rate Outlook and Market Reactions** Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish stance regarding potential rate cuts in December, highlighting significant divisions among FOMC members, which has increased uncertainty around rate cut expectations. Following the October meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, reflecting a decrease in market expectations for future rate cuts [4][5][6]. 3. **Strong Economic Growth Indicators** The U.S. economy showed robust growth in Q3, with nominal growth nearing 7%, surpassing growth rates in mainland China. This suggests a potential overheating of the U.S. economy, which is a critical backdrop for the Fed's cautious policy adjustments [9][1]. 4. **Stock Market Performance Post-Meeting** After the October meeting, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices fell, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.55%, indicating a reliance on loose monetary policy under high valuation conditions. The divergence among sectors was notable, with technology and communication services benefiting from optimism around AI investments [10][1]. 5. **Impact of AI Investments** Powell noted that AI-related investments are less affected by interest rate adjustments. Despite concerns about potential leverage risks among major firms like OpenAI and NVIDIA, the overall outlook for AI investments remains optimistic [11][1]. 6. **Rising Subprime Auto Loan Defaults** The subprime auto loan default rate has increased, particularly among lower-income groups. However, the Fed views this as having a limited impact on the overall macroeconomic outlook [12][1]. 7. **Inflation Trends and Tariff Effects** Recent inflation data showed a slight decline, with tariffs not significantly accelerating inflation. Core inflation remained stable, and service inflation has shown a moderate decline [13][1]. 8. **Government Shutdown and Data Delays** The government shutdown has caused delays in data reporting, complicating the Fed's decision-making process and potentially leading to a pause in rate cuts in December [14][1]. 9. **Current Economic Data and Fed Policy Alignment** Recent economic indicators, including a lower-than-expected CPI and a cooling job market, support the Fed's decision to consider rate cuts as appropriate for the current economic conditions [15][1]. 10. **Balance Sheet Reduction Progress** The Fed's balance sheet reduction has slowed significantly, with only $4.8 billion reduced in September, compared to a theoretical maximum of $40 billion. The decision to halt further reductions is primarily due to signs of tightening liquidity in the money market [16][17][1]. 11. **Future Stock Market Volatility** The stock market is expected to experience volatility if the Fed's easing pace is slower than anticipated. With strong economic growth and high valuations, the market may face adjustments if further support is not provided [18][1]. Other Important Insights - The Fed's cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage risks in the financial system while navigating complex economic signals. - The interplay between monetary policy and market expectations remains critical, with potential implications for investment strategies across various sectors.

1.【OpenAI内斗法律证词曝光：Altman被指"持续撒谎"，董事会曾密谋与Anthropic合并】OpenAI 前首席科学家Ilya Sutskever在马斯克诉讼案中提交52页重磅备忘录，首次系统性披露2023年罢免 Sam Altman的核心内幕。证词直指Altman存在"持续撒谎与误导模式"，包括挑拨高管关系、隐瞒关 键信息等行为，导致董事会对其"彻底失去信任"。董事会曾讨论与竞争对手Anthropic合并，并考虑 由Anthropic创始人Dario Amodei接任CEO，这一极端方案首次获得法律佐证。 案件另一焦点"Brockman备忘录"被法院强制要求提交，或将与现有证据形成闭环。这场历史事件最 根本不是AI理念冲突，而是受托治理与信任结构的彻底断裂。随着马斯克诉OpenAI案进入关键的证 据开示阶段，这些内部材料正在成为未来研究AI治理、监管政策与大型AI组织制度设计的关键原始史 料。（新浪财经） 2. 【微软CEO纳德拉：电力短缺成AI算力扩张新瓶颈，大量芯片闲置在仓库里】微软首席执行官萨 提亚・纳德拉（Satya Nadella）近期在BG2播客中表示，尽管市场对AI芯片的需求持续高 ...

根据美国证券交易委员会10月31日披露的报告，英伟达创始人黄仁勋按既定计划出售了2.5万股股票。 至此，黄仁勋完成了今年3月制定的到年底前抛售至多600万股股票的计划。 OpenAI创始人回应上市 近日，在Bg2播客节目中，OpenAI CEO阿尔特曼与微软CEO纳德拉就两家公司的合作关系进行了联合 访谈。主持人布拉德·格斯特纳提到，有报道称OpenAI目前的收入约为130亿美元。阿尔特曼当即反驳， 称"我们的营收远不止这些"。同时，阿尔特曼否认了有关OpenAI计划明年上市的报道。阿尔特曼表 示："我们没有具体的时间安排，董事会也没有就此做出任何决定。" 小米稳坐中国智能音箱第一 洛图科技（RUNTO）2025年第三季度报告显示，中国智能音箱全渠道市场的销量为305.7万台，同比下 降11.9%；市场销额为8.6亿元，同比下降4.0%；均价为280元，同比增长8.9%。其中，小米以48.8%的 销量份额稳坐行业第一，同比增长6个百分点。百度以32.8%份额位居第二，天猫精灵则因迭代缓慢跌 至16%，TOP3品牌合计份额高达97.2%。 刘强东朋友圈回应夫妻合体照 刘强东幽默回应被拍的"夫妻合体照"，称"谁把 ...