Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing the offshore RMB liquidity in Hong Kong by increasing the funding arrangement scale from 100 billion to 200 billion RMB, supporting various liquidity measures to meet market demand [1]. Group 1: RMB Usage and Market Development - The RMB is increasingly used in cross-border transactions, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, with a significant weight in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket [4]. - The PBOC and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) are set to promote offshore RMB bond repurchase and cross-border repurchase businesses in Hong Kong in February and October 2024, with 34 offshore institutional investors already participating in offshore repurchase totaling 119.1 billion RMB [4]. - A total of 46 new offshore institutional investors have conducted cross-border repurchase transactions amounting to 150.3 billion RMB, indicating a growing interest in RMB-denominated assets [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Connectivity - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial market connectivity, providing liquidity management and risk hedging tools for offshore investors, and improving mechanisms like Bond Connect and Swap Connect [4]. - As of now, 87 offshore investors have accessed the domestic derivatives market through Hong Kong, engaging in interest rate swap transactions with a cumulative nominal principal exceeding 9.9 trillion RMB [4]. Group 3: Offshore RMB Bond Supply and Gold Market Development - The PBOC plans to increase the supply of offshore RMB government bonds to enhance market liquidity and meet the demand for quality RMB asset allocation from overseas investors [5]. - A cooperation agreement was signed between Hong Kong and the Shanghai Gold Exchange to develop the gold market, with plans for a gold delivery warehouse in Hong Kong, which will enhance the offshore RMB market's functionality [5].

1月26日，现货黄金价格达到历史性高位，首次突破5000美元/盎司。面对外部冲击与政策调整预期，接下来金价是否还会强势上行？美元走向会发生什么 变化，人民币汇率将在何处找到稳定锚点？本期"视界"，小管邀请复旦大学管理学院财务与金融学系李达三讲席教授李隽业展望2026年中国金融市场走 向。 委内瑞拉政局动荡、俄乌冲突依旧胶着、中美经贸摩擦持续博弈……回望2025年，全球政治经济舞台出现了更多不可预测的风险点。与此同时，避险资产 需求明显抬升，黄金价格持续攀升，货币与资本流向也在地缘政治与宏观政策的双重作用下频繁波动。 复旦管院金融与财务学系李达三讲席教授 研究方向：实证资产定价，衍生产品定价，金融计量，金融数据分析 例如，2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动后，美国及其盟友对俄罗斯实施了一系列制裁，包括剔除出环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT），冻结俄罗斯央 行约3000亿美元外汇储备，明确禁止俄罗斯进行黄金与美元的互换交易，禁止任何实体接收俄罗斯以美元计价的主权债券利息付款等。这些制裁举措充分 展现了美元的"武器化"程度，所蕴含的战略影响也极为深远。它向其他国家，尤其是中国这样的全球经济大国，传递了一个明确信号 ...

达沃斯论坛瞬间变成了全球金融威慑的现场，特朗普那句任何抛售美股与美债的国家都将面临对等反制，将美国金融话语权的双重标准推向了前所未有的极 致。话音未落，中美双边债券的持仓图表却悄无声息地甩出一记重拳：中国官方持有的美债余额已经降至6830亿美元，比历史最高峰值已累计削减超过6000 亿美元。这场由华盛顿主导、延续了数十年的主权信用借贷闭环，中方早已悄然调整了其背后的底层逻辑。那么，为什么美方反应如此激烈呢？答案不在于 那些公开声明，而是在美国资产负债表的深处。 事态的导火索源自北欧两个低调却意义深远的力量：丹麦某顶尖高校背景的养老基金在七日内完成了1亿美元的美债清仓；紧随其后，瑞典领先的养老金机 构Alecta在单日内减持了77亿到88亿美元的美债。需要特别注意的是，这一数字在全球债务体系中的位置：在美国总债务达到38万亿美元的庞大体系中，几 百亿美元的波动几乎不可能激起涟漪，充其量也只是深海中的一粒微尘。若是在2019年前，这种操作甚至都不会触发交易系统的警报；但如今，形势已经不 同，白宫方面却迅速作出了超常规的反应。原因很简单：这不是一次普通的交易，而是一组全球市场解读为信任撤退的加密电文。 这一金额刷新 ...

图片来源：央行网站截图 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 CONTRECT FOR | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 1505亿元 | 1505亿元 | 中新网1月26日电 据央行网站消息，2026年1月26日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1505亿元7天期逆回购操作。具 体情况如下： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The steel market is currently in a weak supply - demand balance, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4]. - Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions have weakened. Last week's industrial data was average, with stable production of five major steel products, declining apparent demand, and gradual inventory accumulation. The production of rebar rebounded, apparent demand declined, and both factory and social inventories increased. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with little data change [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3142 | - 21 | - 0.66 | 4363197 | 2373958 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3305 | - 10 | - 0.30 | 1840077 | 1453320 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 795.0 | - 17.0 | - 2.09 | 1409932 | 566469 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1157.0 | - 14.0 | - 1.20 | 5090547 | 657580 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1722.0 | 5.0 | 0.29 | 98670 | 39991 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. Seasonally weak demand pressured steel prices, but as the macro - situation improved and market sentiment stabilized, steel prices rebounded. They first fell and then rose during the week, with the overall center of gravity declining slightly. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (- 10) yuan/ton [4]. - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease; the new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the housing completion area was 60.348 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease; the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease; and the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 8393.7 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease [4]. 3. Industry News - No relevant content provided 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, etc. [8][10][12][14][16][21][22][25][27][33][35][39]

1月26日金融一线消息，2026年1月26日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1505亿元7天期逆回购操作。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 1505亿元 | 1505亿元 | 责任编辑：曹睿潼 1月26日金融一线消息，2026年1月26日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1505亿元7天期逆回购操作。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | 中标量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 1505亿元 | 1505亿元 | 责任编辑：曹睿潼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and the smooth operation of financial markets, aligning with the goals set by the Central Committee and the State Council for building a financial powerhouse by 2025 [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the PBOC will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policies, with social financing expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year and broad money supply increasing by 8.5%, both significantly above nominal GDP growth [2]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans is approximately 3.1% [2]. - The PBOC will maintain a flexible approach to policy implementation, utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure liquidity remains ample [3]. Structural Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools, reducing interest rates on various tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for rural and small enterprise loans by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [4]. - New measures include a dedicated 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises and an increase in the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans to 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. Financial Market Stability - The exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies remains stable, and the bond market is developing healthily, with 10-year government bond yields stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [3]. - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining a stable financial market and managing expectations to keep the renminbi at a reasonable equilibrium level [4]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is focused on building a robust macro-prudential management system that covers the relationship between macroeconomic operations and financial risks, as well as key areas of financial markets and activities [7][9]. - Key initiatives include enhancing the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management to include new areas such as non-bank financial institutions and internet finance [9]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to deepening financial cooperation and governance reforms on a global scale, promoting multilateralism, and opposing unilateralism and protectionism [10][11]. - Efforts include enhancing the internationalization of the renminbi and supporting the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center [10]. Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC plans to enhance financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, with specific measures such as a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumer services and elderly care [12][13]. - Additional support for technology innovation includes increasing the re-loan quota for technology innovation and technical transformation to 1.2 trillion yuan and merging risk-sharing tools for technology innovation and private enterprises [13].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and notes has surged, leading to significant interest in both collection and speculative trading, which may create price volatility in the secondary market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced a total issuance of 100 million commemorative coins and 100 million notes for the Year of the Horse, with a regional quota system in place [2] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai received allocations of 6.3 million coins and notes each, while Zhejiang received 4.76 million [2] - The initial exchange period from January 20 to 26 saw long queues at various bank branches, indicating high public interest [2] Group 2: Pricing and Trading - The face value of the commemorative coin is 10 yuan, and the set of 20 coins totals 200 yuan, while the commemorative note has a face value of 20 yuan, totaling 400 yuan for a set of 20 [3] - On secondary trading platforms, the price for a set of 20 notes has reached between 600 yuan and 800 yuan, with premium prices for special numbers [3][4] - Current buyback prices for the commemorative notes range from 27 to 40 yuan each, while the coins are around 15 yuan [3][4] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The premium for the commemorative notes exceeds 80% over face value, while the coins have a premium of about 30% [4] - Market experts caution that the high prices may not be sustainable due to the large issuance volume and potential speculative trading [5] - Historical trends indicate that new releases often experience initial price spikes followed by declines, suggesting a need for cautious investment [4][5]

■刘琪 近日，中国人民银行公布2025年第四季度拒收人民币现金行政处罚情况，两家单位分别因拒绝客户使用 现金支付方式缴纳停车费、拒绝客户使用现金支付方式办理投保业务被处以警告、罚款，相关直接责任 人亦同步受惩。 这份罚单的背后，是监管层对拒收人民币现金行为的常态化整治。自2018年起，中国人民银行便牵头开 展整治拒收现金工作，建立整治拒收现金会商机制；2023年，中国人民银行开展了拒收人民币现金专项 整治工作；近期，中国人民银行等三部门制定了《人民币现金收付及服务规定》，将于2月1日正式施 行，进一步防范和整治拒收人民币现金行为。 同时，保障现金支付也是填平"数字鸿沟"、维护消费者合法权益的重要举措。根据中国人民银行此前组 织的抽样调查，超75%的老年人经常使用现金，县域老年人这一比例更是达80.4%，此外，农村居民、 进城务工人员、小微商户等群体也对现金高度依赖。对他们而言，现金不仅是支付工具，更是融入日常 生活、保障基本消费的"刚需"。因此，保障现金支付，保障的不仅是消费者自主选择权、公平交易权等 基本权利，更是民生。 从金融体系稳定的视角看，现金是不可替代的"兜底工具"，整治拒收现金行为也是在筑牢金融安 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a significant liquidity injection through a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system ahead of the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on January 23, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels [1]. - In January, 2,000 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature, leading to a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, which is a substantial increase compared to previous levels [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring funding for key projects and supporting economic recovery, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds for 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the upcoming increase in cash withdrawals due to the Spring Festival will necessitate a stable liquidity environment, making it unlikely for the PBOC to resort to reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the short term [3][4]. - The PBOC's large-scale MLF operation is seen as a substitute for RRR cuts, signaling a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Experts believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, but these measures will depend on favorable conditions [6][7]. - The focus will be on the pace of fiscal policy implementation and government bond issuance, as government bonds accounted for 38.9% of total social financing in 2025 [8]. - The banking sector's net interest margin stability is crucial, especially with significant long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [8].