胶版印刷纸期货基础知识和基本面分享 银河期货 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 第一部分 双胶纸基础及合约介绍 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 胶版印刷纸产业链 文化印刷用纸主要产品为双胶 纸、铜版纸； 部分文化纸以混浆、再生浆作 为原料，但市场占比较小， 多 数生产工艺仍是以针叶浆、阔 叶浆和化机浆作为主要原料； 主要下游需求以印刷出版为主。 其中每年的出版招标需求是双 胶纸的主要需求支撑，铜版纸 则受社会需求影响更大。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ...

供大于求格局不变，造纸市场行情疲弱 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 【策略】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 纸浆：进口针叶浆受期货资金推动均价涨 1.09%，阔叶浆因货源减少 + 下游采购支撑涨 2.25%，国产浆弱稳运行；港口库存累库至 217.3 万吨 （环比 + 3.0%），连续两 ...

供需宽松，造纸市场承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 246/206/207 68/84/105 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 纸浆：国产浆新线持续释放，周度产量增至60.5万吨，11月针叶浆进口预计68万吨，环比微降1.4%，主流港口库存210万吨连续六个月超往年。需 求端分化明显，文化纸拖累持续，耗浆量环比下降；包装与生活用 ...

Group 1 - The light industry sector's growth in 2024 is expected to come from the expansion of overseas production capacity and the increasing penetration of new consumer categories [1] - After rapid overseas capacity expansion in 2024-2025, certain industries may see operational improvements and a return to revenue and profit growth by 2026 [1] - The domestic industries related to real estate are anticipated to benefit significantly from the recovery of the real estate market, with a notable recovery expected if the market stabilizes next year [1] Group 2 - The pet industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with a focus on alpha opportunities amid changing strategies among companies [2] - The personal care industry is developing steadily in China, with product strength becoming a key factor for success [2] - The export chain is seeing opportunities due to the demand for stable supply chains, leading overseas clients to require production capacity to be established abroad [2] Group 3 - The overseas new consumer categories based on cost-effectiveness and innovation are experiencing rapid growth [3] - The high-end and overseas expansion strategies are expected to be the main growth points for the real estate chain [3] - The paper industry is currently in a phase of capacity digestion, with a potential supply-demand balance expected to be achieved around 2027 [3] Group 4 - Companies to watch include Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Xianhe Paper, and Yutong Technology in the paper sector [3] - In the home furnishing sector, companies like Oppein Home, Gujia Home, and Iolo Home are highlighted for their growth potential [3] - Other notable companies include Source Pet, Jia Yi, and Hars in the pet industry, as well as Yadea Holdings and Aima Technology in the electric vehicle sector [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][101]. Core Insights - The report highlights the opening of Li Ning's first outdoor store, indicating a strategic shift towards the light outdoor mass market, focusing on hiking, urban commuting, and suburban camping [6]. - The export chain is showing signs of recovery, particularly for companies like Henglin and Yongyi, with a notable increase in non-wood furniture exports to the U.S. from Vietnam [6]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Olympic cycle and improved management and inventory at Li Ning could lead to a positive turning point for the company [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 1.86%, ranking 6th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 1.6%, ranking 24th [11]. - Sub-sectors within light industry manufacturing showed varied performance, with packaging printing up by 3.96% and home goods up by 0.5% [11]. Export Chain - The report emphasizes the recovery of U.S. orders post-tariff adjustments, predicting a boost in durable goods exports due to stable tariff policies and low downstream inventory levels [6]. - Companies like Henglin and Yongyi are recommended for their low valuations and potential for revenue recovery [6]. Brand Apparel - Li Ning's new outdoor store is seen as a significant step in brand image enhancement, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of the year [6]. - Other recommended companies include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng, focusing on functional footwear and apparel [6]. Manufacturing and Supply Chain - The report discusses the potential for investment opportunities in the outbound manufacturing sector, particularly in non-woven fabric and packaging industries [7]. - It highlights the need for attention on companies like Yanjing and Meiyingsen, which are positioned well for overseas expansion [7]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes a shift in the caprolactam industry towards reducing over-competition, with a recommendation for Taihua New Materials [7]. - Companies like Crystal International and Huayi Group are highlighted for their potential growth due to improved customer structures and production capacity [7]. Home Furnishings - Recommendations include low-valuation leaders in the soft furniture sector such as Xilinmen and Kuka Home, as well as custom furniture companies like Sophia and Oppein [7]. Pet Products - The report suggests monitoring Yuanfei Pet for its growth potential in both OEM and OBM segments, particularly in Southeast Asia [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply of wood chips leading to an increase in pulp prices, with Jin Ying Group announcing a $20/ton increase for hardwood pulp in Asia for December. The anticipated shutdown of certain softwood pulp lines in Canada has halted the decline in softwood pulp prices. This price increase is expected to support the cost structure for wood pulp companies, with a continued recommendation for Sun Paper [3][7] - According to Counterpoint Research, Apple's smartphone shipments in October increased by 12% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 24.2%, the highest monthly global market share on record. The report recommends Yutong Technology based on this growth [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, with an index increase of 1.86% compared to the 1.28% increase in the CSI 300 index for the week ending December 5, 2025 [13] - Within the light industry, the packaging and printing index rose by 3.96%, while the paper index increased by 1.18% [13] 2. Home Furnishing - In October, residential construction area decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, with cumulative sales of residential properties from January to October down by 7% [30] - Furniture retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in October, but furniture exports fell by 12.7% [34] 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 5, 2025, prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with white cardboard prices up by 10 CNY/ton and boxboard prices up by 15 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a decline in waste paper prices, with the average price for waste yellow board at 1909 CNY/ton [52] 4. Consumer Goods - The report indicates that the fourth quarter is a peak season for e-commerce sales, with recommendations for companies in the personal care sector to expand their marketing channels [109] - The report also highlights the performance of the stationery sector, with a recommendation for Morning Glory Co., which is expected to see a recovery in operations [109] 5. New Tobacco Products - The EU is discussing revisions to the Tobacco Tax Directive, which could significantly increase taxes on tobacco and nicotine products, potentially impacting the industry [6] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the growing market for heated tobacco products [6] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1.6% [23] - The report notes increased demand for warm and sports apparel due to colder weather, recommending companies like Anta and Li Ning [23]

2025年12月4日，上交所官网公告披露，安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司（以下简称：林平发展）将于 12月11日进行IPO上会审议，公司拟计划在上海证券交易所主板发行上市，保荐机构为国联民生证券， 审计机构为立信会计师事务所，律师事务所为北京市天元律师事务所。 根据招股书披露显示，林平发展主要从事包装用瓦楞纸、箱板纸产品的研发、生产和销售，其主要产品 包括瓦楞纸、箱板纸，公司产品销往下游制作成瓦楞纸箱广泛应用于物流运输、工业品及消费品包装领 域。 本次IPO，林平发展计划募资12亿元用于"年产90万吨绿色环保智能制造新材料项目"以及"年产 60 万吨 生物基纤维绿色智能制造新材料项目"。然而，这家以瓦楞纸、箱板纸为核心业务的企业，却因业绩持 续下滑、产能利用率不足、税收依赖过高及合规管理缺陷等问题，陷入IPO上市争议漩涡。 也就是说，公司近年来的业绩不稳定因数林平发展则归咎为"大环境"不好和一些不可抗的自然灾害因数 所致。但事实上，林平发展经营业绩不稳定的隐患远不止与此。 从产品毛利率来看，林平发展在2022年至2025年上半年期间，公司的综合毛利率分别为7.67%、 9.85%、9.37%和10.32%，整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth potential of China's paper industry, with a focus on export value trends and market dynamics from 2025 to 2032 [1] Industry Summary - In October 2025, the export value of China's paper and paper products industry reached 6.83 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export value of the industry was 66.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1] - The report includes a statistical chart of export values from 2019 to October 2025, indicating a steady growth trend in the industry [1] Company Summary - The report mentions several listed companies in the paper industry, including Chenming Paper (000488), Kane Co. (002012), Jingxing Paper (002067), and others, indicating a diverse market landscape [1] - The analysis is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and insights from Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese paper industry is projected to experience growth in production, with a notable increase in the output of mechanical paper and paperboard from 2020 to 2025, indicating a positive market outlook for the sector [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of mechanical paper and paperboard (excluding purchased raw paper processing) in September 2025 is expected to reach 14.26 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard (excluding purchased raw paper processing) is anticipated to be 121.128 million tons, with a cumulative growth of 3.4% [1] - The data indicates a steady increase in production capacity and market demand within the Chinese paper industry, suggesting a favorable environment for investment [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the sector include Sun Paper Industry (002078), Chenming Paper (000488), Bohui Paper (600966), Yueyang Forest & Paper (600963), Shanying International (600567), and Hengfeng Paper (600356), which are key players in the Chinese paper market [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market research and development prospects for the paper industry from 2025 to 2031, highlighting the importance of strategic planning for companies in this sector [1]

内容概况：当前，中国防油纸行业进出口结构呈现"进口收缩、出口扩张"的鲜明特征。从进口情况来 看，受国际市场需求变化、国内替代品发展及政策调整等多重因素影响，防油纸进口规模在经过2018年 高点后进入下行通道。2024年防油纸进口数量为2880.43吨，较2018年的9400.71吨减少6520.28吨，进口 金额从2018年的1192.44万美元下降至2024年的850.33万美元，显示国内产能对进口产品的替代效应持续 增强。2025年前三季度，中国防油纸进口数量为2402.77吨，同比增长13.81%；进口金额为662.96万美 元，同比增长10.34%。2025年前三季度进口量值虽有所回升，但整体仍维持在较低水平。从出口情况 来看，随着全球经济的复苏和食品包装行业的持续发展，中国防油纸出口数量和出口金额整体呈现逐年 增长的态势。据统计，中国防油纸出口数量从2017年的6821.24吨增长至2024年的17087.4吨，年复合增 长率为14.02%；出口金额从2017年的1440.34万美元增长至2024年的3370.78万美元，年复合增长率为 12.92%。2025年前三季度，中国防油纸出口数量为1515 ...