Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry in China is expected to continue its recovery, with significant improvements in demand and a potential turnaround in profitability by 2025, driven by a strong rebound in passenger traffic and strategic pricing adjustments [2][5]. Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming New Year holiday is anticipated to see robust air travel demand, with significant increases in both volume and pricing compared to previous years [4]. - The Spring Festival travel peak is expected to maintain active business and personal travel, although the holiday's impact may be weaker than in previous years [4]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [2]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with a projected fleet size increase of approximately 3.7% by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels [2]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [2]. Group 4: Quarterly Performance Expectations - In Q1, passenger traffic is expected to reach new highs due to strong personal demand, but ticket prices may decline by about 10% year-on-year, limiting profitability improvements [3]. - Q2 is projected to see significant reductions in losses due to active business travel and favorable supply-demand conditions [3]. - Q3 may experience weaker business demand, impacting profitability despite a slight increase in ticket prices driven by recovering demand from September [3]. - Q4 is expected to continue the trend of significant loss reduction, supported by strong holiday travel and stable load factors [3]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," with sustainable growth in demand and a recovery in pricing and profitability expected to begin in 2026 [5]. - The market has achieved price liberalization, and the focus on improving network quality will be crucial for traditional airlines' future profitability [5].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has outlined seven key tasks for the aviation industry in 2026, focusing on improving quality and efficiency, enhancing core competitiveness, and addressing "involution" competition [1] - The CAAC plans to develop a passenger transport cost survey method and establish a price monitoring and early warning mechanism to prevent unhealthy competition based on below-cost pricing [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Trends - Domestic ticket prices have been declining, with an average bare ticket price of 704 yuan in the first 50 weeks of 2025, down 1.8% from 2024 and 11.3% from 2019 [3] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average full ticket price rose to 628 yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, although still down 10.7% compared to 2019 [3] Group 3: Profitability and Market Performance - The aviation market saw overall profitability improvement in the first three quarters of 2025, with all listed airlines reporting profits except Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which faced specific challenges [4] - The CAAC reported that in 2025, the total transport turnover reached 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport volume at 770 million, and cargo/mail transport volume at 10.17 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 5.5%, and 13.3% respectively [4] Group 4: International Demand Growth - The implementation of visa-free policies has contributed to increased demand for international flights, with 40.6 million inbound foreign visitors recorded by December 16, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [5]

Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to enter a more significant profit growth phase, as indicated by the recent national civil aviation work conference held by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The CAAC has outlined seven key tasks for civil aviation work in 2026, focusing on enhancing core competitiveness and innovating macro-control measures to address "involution" competition [1] - The CAAC plans to develop a passenger transport cost survey method and establish a price monitoring and early warning mechanism to prevent unhealthy competition by collecting data from airlines [1] Group 2: Pricing Trends - Domestic ticket prices have been declining, with an average bare ticket price of 704 yuan in the first 50 weeks of 2025, down 1.8% from 2024 and 11.3% from 2019 [3] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, ticket prices showed a year-on-year increase, with an average full ticket price of 628 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year but down 10.7% from 2029 [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - The overall profitability of listed airlines improved in the first three quarters of 2025, with all but Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines reporting profits [4] - The CAAC reported that in 2025, the total transport turnover reached 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport volume at 770 million and cargo/mail transport volume at 10.172 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 5.5%, and 13.3% respectively [4] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The growth in international flight demand is supported by visa-free policies, with 40.6 million foreign visitors entering China by December 16, 2025, marking a 27.2% year-on-year increase [5] - The recovery of international flights to over 90% of 2019 levels and a 21.6% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume further contribute to the positive outlook for airlines [4][5]

Macro Environment Summary - The nominal GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, higher than 2024 but lower than 2023, with a decline from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.7% in Q3 [8][9] - The GDP deflator index has decreased to -1.08%, indicating deflationary pressures [8] - Non-manufacturing business expectations are stronger than manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50% for most months in 2025 [12][14] - Employment stability in manufacturing is better than in non-manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI for employment remaining stable [17][19] - Consumer confidence regarding employment has shown fluctuations, with a general upward trend in 2025 [21][23] - Retail sales growth has declined significantly, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [27][29] - Real estate investment has seen a cumulative decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, with expectations of negative growth for four consecutive years [33][34] - Net exports have contributed positively to GDP growth, with total exports of 2.44 trillion yuan and imports of 1.67 trillion yuan from January to November 2025 [39][40] Express Delivery Industry - The growth rate of express delivery volume has significantly decreased from 22.4% in January-February 2025 to 5% in November, attributed to declining consumer demand and competition from instant retail [47][53] - Price changes in express delivery have led to a clear differentiation in demand, with rising costs affecting low-margin products and order-filling activities [57][61] - Different express companies have shown varying trends in volume growth and revenue per package, with Yunda experiencing negative volume growth but higher revenue per package compared to YTO [61][65] Aviation and Airport Industry - The number of civil transport airports in China is expected to reach 270 by the end of 2025, with significant progress in airport construction projects [75][77] - The fleet of major airlines has seen growth, with wide-body and narrow-body aircraft increasing by 8.9% and 13.3% respectively since the end of 2019 [81][82] - Domestic flight capacity has been adjusted, with a 1.8% decrease in weekly domestic flights for the winter-spring season of 2025 compared to the previous year [86][90] - Airlines are focusing on international routes, with a 17.3% increase in international flights compared to the previous year [90] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has decreased by 6% year-on-year, reflecting a strategy to maintain passenger load factors [102][110] - The low oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB are expected to enhance profits for major airlines, with estimated profit increases ranging from 20.4 billion to 50 billion yuan depending on the airline [128]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 6.474 million flights were guaranteed nationwide, with an average of 17,737 flights per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - The domestic passenger flight normality rate for the year was 91.09%, maintaining above 80% for eight consecutive years [1][5] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) monitored flight operations based on pre-flight plans and actual operations, focusing on traffic volume, flight normality, flight guarantee processes, and airport bridge rates [1] Flight Operations Summary - The proportion of flight types in 2025 included 75.62% domestic passenger flights, 11.15% international passenger flights, 7.15% overflight flights, 2.52% international cargo flights, 2.10% passenger flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, 1.31% domestic cargo flights, and 0.15% cargo flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [3] - The top ten airlines by passenger flight numbers in 2025 included Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, Hainan Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5] Flight Normality and Delays - The domestic passenger flight normality rate in 2025 was 91.09%, an increase of 3.99 percentage points compared to 2024 [6] - The main reasons for flight irregularities included weather (56.00%), military activities (25.38%), and airline issues (17.04%) [6][8] - The average delay time for domestic passenger flights in 2025 was 6.31 minutes, with 25.41% of flights delayed by less than 30 minutes and 18.07% delayed by more than 2 hours [9] Airport Operations Summary - The national airport release normality rate in 2025 was 91.77%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from 2024 [7] - The reasons for airport release irregularities included military activities (30.49%), airline issues (12.65%), and other factors (1.80%) [8] - The bridge rate for major airports in 2025 was 85.80%, with a starting flight bridge rate of 66.80% and an overnight flight bridge rate of 67.47% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on January 7, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.06% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.72, up by 2.72% with a trading volume of 151,500 shares and a transaction value of 268 million yuan [1]. - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 8.15, up by 0.74% with a trading volume of 448,600 shares and a transaction value of 366 million yuan [1]. - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 59.04, up by 0.63% with a trading volume of 63,900 shares and a transaction value of 379 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.14, up by 0.16% with a trading volume of 873,400 shares and a transaction value of 538 million yuan [1]. - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 9.15, down by 0.54% with a trading volume of 581,300 shares and a transaction value of 534 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 247 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 184 million yuan [2]. - Xiamen Airport had a net inflow of 41.95 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 15.68% of its total trading [3]. - Shanghai Airport experienced a net inflow of 28.87 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 7.73% of its total trading [3]. - China Eastern Airlines had a net outflow of 21.72 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 13.25 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant recovery in passenger turnover and profitability by 2025, with a projected passenger turnover of 1,099 billion person-kilometers in November 2025, representing an 18.2% increase compared to 2019 and a 9.6% increase compared to 2024 [1]. Aviation Passenger Transport Key Data - Demand: In November 2025, domestic passenger turnover (excluding regional) is projected to be 809 billion person-kilometers, up 19.6% from 2019 and 6.3% from 2024. International and regional passenger turnover is expected to reach 291 billion person-kilometers, reflecting a 14.5% increase from 2019 and a 19.9% increase from 2024 [1]. - Supply: The available seat kilometers in November 2025 are projected to be 1,283 billion, up 12.4% from 2019 and 6.4% from 2024. The passenger load factor is expected to be 85.7%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2019 and 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Ticket Prices: In November, the average full ticket price for domestic routes is expected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year, while the bare ticket price is expected to increase by 3.8% [2]. - Performance of Listed Airlines: In November, the year-on-year RPK changes for major airlines on domestic routes are as follows: China Southern +7.4%, Air China +7.4%, China Eastern +5.1%, Hainan Airlines +4.5%, Spring Airlines +17.9%, and Juneyao Airlines +0.8%. The ASK changes for these airlines are +5.4%, +3.8%, +2.1%, +2.8%, +16.3%, and -0.5% respectively [2]. Air Cargo Key Data - In November 2025, the number of international and regional cargo flights is expected to reach 15,977, reflecting a 12.4% increase month-on-month and a 14% increase year-on-year. The theoretical cargo capacity is projected to be 110 million tons, with an 8.2% month-on-month increase and a 12.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The average TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index is expected to be 5,469 points, reflecting a 1.5% month-on-month increase and a 16.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Perspective - The increase in holiday time and significant year-on-year growth in industry volume and price suggest a positive outlook for Q1 spring travel performance. The recent seven-day passenger flow shows a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic passenger flow up 13.7% and bare ticket prices up 7.9% [4]. - The industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand recovery, improved oil and exchange rate conditions, and a clear trend of profitability recovery. The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a significant reduction in losses due to demand growth and stabilized ticket prices, with 2025 expected to be the first year of profitability for major airlines [4]. - Recommended stocks include Air China (601111), China Southern Airlines (600029), Juneyao Airlines (603885), Spring Airlines (601021), and Huaxia Airlines (002928), with a suggestion to pay attention to China Eastern Airlines (600115) [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong public transportation system experienced a significant surge in passenger flow during the 2026 New Year holiday, with record-breaking numbers in metro, rail, and airport traffic, indicating strong demand for holiday travel and the effectiveness of integrated transport networks in the Greater Bay Area [1][4][11]. Metro System - Guangzhou Metro set a new single-day passenger record of 14.093 million on January 1, 2026, with a total of 31.26 million passengers over the holiday period, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The highest passenger volume on a single line was 5.36 million on Line 3, with major transfer stations like Sports West Road and Jiahe Wanggang seeing significant traffic [2][3]. Railway System - The Guangzhou Railway Bureau reported sending 7.378 million passengers from January 1 to 3, 2026, a 59.1% increase compared to the previous year, with a peak of 2.942 million on January 1 [4][5]. - High-speed rail accounted for 84.9% of the total passenger volume, with major stations like Guangzhou South and Shenzhen North leading in traffic [5]. Airport System - In 2025, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport achieved a record passenger throughput of 83.59 million, with a daily average of 22.9 million, and is projected to exceed 180 million passengers by 2025 [7][8]. - The airport's new T3 terminal has become a popular landmark, enhancing passenger experience and operational efficiency [9][11]. Regional Connectivity - The integration of transport services in the Greater Bay Area, particularly the "one network, one ticket" system between Guangzhou and Foshan, has facilitated cross-city travel, contributing to the surge in passenger numbers [3][11]. - New high-speed rail lines like the Guangzhang and Shantou lines have improved access to the coastal regions, boosting tourism and regional development [6][10].

Core Insights - The civil aviation industry in China achieved a profit of 6.5 billion yuan in 2025, driven primarily by air cargo, airports, and aviation fuel and materials, with passenger transport lagging behind [1][3] - The industry aims to transport 810 million passengers in 2026 and will focus on addressing "involution" competition and preventing airlines from engaging in predatory pricing [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2025, the civil aviation sector completed a total transport turnover of 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport reaching 770 million and cargo mail transport at 10.172 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 5.5%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - Domestic and international cargo mail transport volumes grew by 7.3% and 22.1%, respectively, with Chinese airlines capturing 44% of the international cargo market, an increase of 3 percentage points [3] Airline and Airport Performance - Major airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported net profits of 1.87 billion yuan, 2.103 billion yuan, and 2.307 billion yuan, respectively, by Q3 2025 [3] - Listed airports like Shanghai Airport and Guangzhou Baiyun Airport reported net profits of 1.634 billion yuan and 1.096 billion yuan, while Beijing Capital Airport incurred a loss of 239 million yuan, although this was a 48.11% reduction in losses year-on-year [4] Market Dynamics - The recovery of international flights has significantly improved operational efficiency, with international passenger transport increasing by 21.6% year-on-year and international cargo transport volumes showing substantial growth across various regions [4] - The industry is experiencing a trend of "involution" competition, with airlines adopting low-price strategies, leading to a 12.7% decline in average economy class ticket prices in 2024 and a further 3.1% drop in 2025 [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - The civil aviation sector plans to enhance the domestic aviation market by addressing "involution" competition through regulatory reforms and improving operational efficiency [6] - The focus will also be on increasing the domestic production rate of aviation products, with specific attention to the C919 and C909 aircraft models [7] Low-altitude Economy Development - The meeting highlighted the importance of developing the low-altitude economy, with significant progress in general aviation and the establishment of low-altitude flight service stations [7][8] - The industry aims to promote high-quality development in general aviation and low-altitude economy, including the establishment of a comprehensive monitoring service platform for low-altitude flights [8]

1月6日，2026年全国民航工作会议在京召开。会议披露，2025年民航总体实现盈利65亿元。北京商报记 者了解到，航空货运、机场、航油航材等起到主力盈利作用。在客货运需求增长、国际航线扩展、精细 化管理等多种因素作用下，民航经营效益进一步向好。2026年，民航定下了完成旅客运输量8.1亿人次 的目标，并将深入整治"内卷式"竞争、防止航司以低于成本价开展恶性竞争列为重点工作之一。此外， 会议还提出，2026年民航还将加快低空飞行服务站体系建设，并统筹推进重点型号以及C919、C909设 计优化审定，有序推进机载设备、辅助动力装置等关键产品审定，以提升航空产业链国产化率。 货运、机场、航油航材等起主要盈利作用 会议披露，2025年民航实现盈利65亿元。相比2024年的"全行业同比减亏206亿元，总体实现扭亏为 盈"，2025年民航的经营效益进一步向好。 从具体数据来看，2025年民航全行业全年完成运输总周转量1640.8亿吨公里、旅客运输量7.7亿人次、货 邮运输量1017.2万吨，同比分别增长10.5%、5.5%、13.3%。国内、国际货邮运输量同比分别增长 7.3%、22.1%，我国航空企业国际货运市场份额达 ...