1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 8 - month contract price of shipping rates is oscillating at a high level, with a game over delivery. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, focusing on the downward slope of shipping rates. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to oscillate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has a price of 1885/3170 in week 31, and HPL's quotes increase from the second half of July to the first half of August [1]. - The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route varies by month. In August, there are 3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, and there are new additional vessels from Maersk in weeks 32 and 34 [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The price is oscillating at a high level. Some companies try to increase prices, and it is estimated that the shipping rate in August will be similar to that in July. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a seasonal contract for the off - season, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of shipping rates. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to festivals and long - term agreement negotiations, shipping rates are usually at a high level. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4][5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 83,537 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,745 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1486.40, EC2508 at 2291.90, etc. [5]. - On July 18, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes are 2079.00 dollars/TEU, 2142.00 dollars/FEU, and 3612.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On July 21, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 2400.50 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 1301.81 points [5]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. 3.5 Strategy - **Unilateral strategy**: The main contract is expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high - level fluctuations in the short term. For the main 2510 contract, the market's fundamental trading logic remains to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth. For the 2508 contract, its valuation depends on the freight rate trend in early August [1][4]. - The shipping market in August is likely to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In August, the weekly average capacity is 321,000 TEU/week, with Maersk adding 2 additional vessels. In September, there are currently 2 blank sailings and 7 pending voyages (1 less than last week). Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average capacity in September is 299,000 TEU/week, and this value currently has limited reference significance [4][49]. - Regarding static capacity, in the first half of 2025, the top ten liner companies received a certain number of new ships, with some deployed on European lines. From July - December, it is expected to receive 36 ships (558,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen has a plan to receive a 24,000 TEU ship in the second half of the year [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - The cargo volume during the peak season from July - August this year is better than expected, which is related to the resilience of the European economy and some exporters shifting from the US market to Europe. It is expected that the cargo volume may remain resilient in early August, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of cargo volume appears in mid - August [4]. - From the perspective of the US import, in June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's exports to the US decreased by 24.9% year - on - year, while exports to Southeast Asia and India increased by 25.2% year - on - year [24]. - From the perspective of China's exports, in June, the decline in exports to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [26]. - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume has shown certain fluctuations. In May, Asia's exports of containers to Europe reached 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [30][38]. 3.3 Price - On July 18, the SCFI European Line closed at $2,079/TEU, a week - on - week decrease of $20/TEU, reflecting the price cuts of MSC and Yangming in late July. On July 14, the SCFIS index closed at 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3% [11]. - In late July, MSC and Yangming had small price cuts, while other liner companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline freight rates remained unchanged, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce price increases. The expected time for the freight rate inflection point has been postponed to mid - August [13]. 3.4 Strategy - For unilateral trading, some long positions in the 2508 contract should be liquidated for profit, and the remaining positions can be dynamically liquidated for profit based on the implementation of the announced price increase in early August. - For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the container shipping industry are currently at a high level and are expected to remain volatile. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level oscillation and game - based delivery situation, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - position allocation, and the 12 - month contract is affected by the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [3][4]. - The strategies include the main contract oscillating, an arbitrage strategy of going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 31st week is 1855/3110, and HPL's 8 - month first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 2235/3535 [1]. - Geopolitically, there has been "significant progress" in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations. The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance. Maersk will add two additional ships in August [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is in high - level oscillation. The estimated average freight rate in the first half of August is about $3200/FEU. The final settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a off - season contract, mainly for short - position allocation. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's pricing strategy will change due to the addition of two ships in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: The regular pattern of peak and off - season still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 17, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures is 84,091 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 80,457 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1485.70 and EC2508 at 2164.50 [5]. - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $2099/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2194/TEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $4172/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1266.59 points [5][6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 5. Strategies and Risks - **Strategies**: The main contract oscillates. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risks**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected ship deliveries, insufficient ship idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain issues, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to ship detours [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the European line shipping market is increasing, especially with the addition of a large vessel on MSK's AE1 route in week 32, reaching a weekly capacity of 330,000 TEU. The downstream has stopped booking cargo space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30). Shipping companies' quotes for the second half of July have remained stable overall, but there has been a slight downward adjustment for the last week of July (week 30). With the support of shipping companies' base cargo, the spot price has remained stable, but it is expected that the cargo volume support will gradually weaken, and there will be pressure in week 32 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are 2153.0, 1598.1, 1759.0, 1463.4, 1280.8, and 1421.6 respectively. The price changes are 1.27%, -3.47%, -4.19%, -3.50%, -2.90%, and -2.42% respectively. The open interest changes are -2808, 3849, 218, -186, -247, and 4 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 are 554.9, -160.9, and 295.6 respectively, with daily changes of 84.5, 19.5, and -24.0 respectively, and weekly changes of -66.5, -5.6, and 104.9 respectively [2]. Spot (European Line) - **Price Indexes and Changes**: The SCHIS index on July 14, 2025, was 2421.94 points, with a 7.26% increase from the previous period. The SCEI was 2099 dollars/TEU on July 11, 2025, with a -0.10% change from the previous period. The CCFI was 1726.41 points on July 11, 2025, with a 1.90% increase from the previous period. The NCFI was 1435.21 points on July 11, 2025, with a -0.50% change from the previous period. The TCI was 1019.55 points on July 11, 2025, with no change from the previous period [2]. Shipping Capacity and Quotes - **Shipping Capacity Arrangement**: The average weekly shipping capacities in July and August 2025 are 295,000 and 321,500 TEU respectively. In week 32, the shipping capacity reaches 330,000 TEU [2]. - **Quotes**: Downstream has stopped booking cargo space for week 29 - 30 in July. Shipping companies' quotes for the second half of July have remained stable overall, with quotes around 3400 dollars in week 29. For week 30, HPL, CMA, OOCL, and MSC have slightly reduced their quotes by about 200 dollars, with an average of 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market). MSK's quote for week 31 remains flat at 2900 - 3000 dollars [2][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate of the container shipping index on the European line is hovering at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level shock and game for delivery, the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's freight rate is usually high, but it is affected by whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation [3][4]. - The container shipping industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, ship capacity supply, and market demand. The current situation shows fluctuations in freight rates and changes in shipping capacity [2][4]. - The trading strategies include the main contract oscillating, going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam in Week 31 is 1855/3110, and HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are different [1]. - Geopolitical events such as the military actions of the Yemeni Houthi rebels may impact shipping routes and freight rates [2]. - The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is in a high - level shock, and CMA still has a price - holding expectation in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index on the European line futures is 86,287.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 122,392.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary [5]. - On July 11th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, and on July 14th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points [6]. 4. Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU [6]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: The main contract oscillates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of the container shipping index has switched from 2508 to 2510. It is recommended to hold a light - short position in the 2510 contract and use low - long positions in the 2512 and 02 contracts for protection [10][13]. - The SCFIS index on July 14 was better than expected, which may drive the 2508 contract to have a subsidy - water space of 50 - 100 points [10]. - The spot freight rate is expected to decline gradually, with the decline rate accelerating in late August. Different scenarios are considered for the valuation of the 2508 contract, and the 2510 contract should be shorted in the long - term due to the traditional off - season [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2510 contract increased its positions by 3971 lots, closing at 1440.7 points with a 4% increase; the 2508 contract decreased its positions by 1009 lots, closing at 2027.2 points with a 0.53% increase [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 14, the SCFIS European route index was 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1266.59 points, a week - on - week decrease of 18.7%. The SCFI European route index was 2099 $/TEU, a bi - weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index was 2194 $/FEU, a bi - weekly increase of 5% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, the Gemini Alliance slightly increased prices, and the OA and PA Alliances (ONE and HMM) kept their rates unchanged. The market freight rate center was stable at around 3350 $/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 301,000 TEU/week, and it was revised down to 335,000 TEU in week 31. The weekly average shipping capacity in August was 315,000 TEU/week, and there were 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages in September. The loading of the Gemini and OA Alliances in late July was relatively optimistic, while MSC faced increased cargo - collecting pressure [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Trump plans to manufacture top - level weapons for NATO, and NATO may supply weapons to other countries. NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that European countries are "stepping up" in weapons supply [9]. - Israel submitted its third version of the plan for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 1, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value of 1862 [2] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1343, down 1.92% from the previous value of 1369 [2] - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2089, down 18.97% from the previous value of 2578 [2] - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1557, down 3.83% from the previous value of 1619 [2] - SCFI - US East has a current value of 4124, down 12.57% from the previous value of 4717 [2] - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2101, up 3.50% from the previous value of 2030 [2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2258, up 6.36% from the previous value of 2123 [2] - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2869, down 3.89% from the previous value of 2985 [2] Group 2: Shipping Contracts Data - For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding price changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1342.1, up 0.72% from the previous value of 1332.5 [2] - Regarding contract positions, such as EC2606 position, EC2508 position etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes in quantity are provided. For instance, EC2606 position has a current value of 471, up from the previous value of 430 [2] - For month - spreads like 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes are given. For example, the 10 - 12 month - spread has a current value of 621.4, down 1.1 from the previous value of 622.5 [2] Group 3: Industry News - A vessel was attacked off the Red Sea coast of Yemen on Sunday, with characteristics typical of Houthi militants. The vessel was hit by a maritime drone and also attacked by small boats [2] - Some EU car manufacturers and governments are seeking a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. If no deal is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US may face a 50% tariff increase [6] - Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks in Qatar ended without results [7] - CMA added an overtime ship on the 11th and still has available space [7] - MSK added a new overtime ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in wk31 [8] - There is congestion at East China ports, and MSC adjusted its port calls [9] - Loading rates on European routes were good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10] - The OA Alliance's CES route suspended two sailings, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [11] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The shipping market showed a strong - side oscillation. The recent strength was due to tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. Forwarding of goods from the Far East to the US will continue for some time, which is positive for August [12] - The central price in the second week of July was about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quotes increased slightly, and the 08 contract performed strongly [12] - The market is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations. The shipping volume during the previous peak season was mostly consumed during the tariff suspension period, and the effect of price increases in August may not be optimistic [12] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. The 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract due to less shipping capacity in wk28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in wk1 of July, and expected congestion in Europe [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate has likely reached its peak as Maersk and MSC have kept their freight rates unchanged in the second half of July. The EC2510 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [4][5]. - The supply of the US - bound routes has rapidly recovered, and the freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West coasts of the US have dropped from their highs. The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route are still uncertain as to when they will peak, and the settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of July 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 83,240 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 39,157 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1338.70, 1172.90, 1319.90, 1896.90, 1363.90, and 1538.70 respectively [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for the 29th week from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1785/2990. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27th was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1st was 2123.24 points [1][6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July was 261,900 TEU, and in August it was 269,900 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events in Israel may affect the shipping market. The supply and demand of the US - bound routes have both increased, and the capacity has been rapidly restored. The congestion situation of container ships globally and the passage of ships through major canals such as the Suez, Panama, and around the Cape of Good Hope are also factors affecting the supply chain [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly after the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The industrial production index, import and export data, consumer confidence index, and retail sales data of the EU 27 countries are important factors affecting the demand for shipping [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].