转自：经济日报 1月20日，海外市场迎来2026年第一场"巨震"——"抛售美国"交易卷土重来、日债收益率历史性迈入"4 时代"、全球债市遭遇"抛售潮"、权益等风险资产普跌…… 分析人士普遍认为，地缘紧张局势、关税忧虑及日债"抛售潮"的连锁反应共同构成了本次海外市场震荡 的核心逻辑，也暴露出发达经济体普遍的财政可持续性隐忧。展望后市，仍需关注政策演变等关键信 号。 美国市场"股债汇三杀" （来源：经济日报） 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰对上证报记者表示，本轮海外市场波动的"震源"来自日本。 日本国债遭遇历史性抛售，收益率提高导致全球套息交易的平仓，作为资产端的美债被抛售，实际上是 套息交易当中的逻辑联动。 "日美投资者之间存在较强的跨境联动效应。因此，当美债与日债同时出现抛售压力时，极易形成跨市 场的负面反馈循环，加剧波动。"林成炜称。 "美国信用"下滑加速了这一趋势。王昕杰表示，2026年的宏观核心议题在于，主要经济体在货币政策空 间受限的背景下，财政政策捉襟见肘，日本面临的是投资者对于日本财政的信任度下降，美国则需应对 在套息交易大规模平仓过程中的"美国信用"下滑问题。 这反映出美国、欧洲、日本等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market indices experienced a rebound, with the Hong Kong Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) rising by 1.55% and achieving a trading volume of 85.86 million yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment towards dividend stocks [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The valuation of dividend stocks, represented by the dividend sector, remains at historically low levels, reflecting the asset revaluation potential brought by the appreciation of the RMB and the defensive value of stable earnings during economic structural transformation [1] - The Hong Kong dividend sector is recommended as a long-term strategic base, enhancing defensiveness and providing continuous dividend returns [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - It is suggested to focus on undervalued central state-owned enterprises and non-bank financial institutions [1] - The combination of low long-term interest rates and continued overseas easing is expected to attract long-term capital, such as southbound funds and insurance capital, to increase allocation in Hong Kong dividend stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its offshore connections (022719/022720) provide investors with a convenient entry point to invest in Hong Kong dividend assets, allowing for stable returns and long-term value [1]

浙商证券研报指出，苏农银行25A营收和利润维持稳健增长，不良和拨备均环比改善。快报显示， 2025A苏农银行营业收入、归母净利润同比分别增长0.4%、5.0%，增速较25Q1-3提升0.3pc、持平。展 望2026年：①从营收端来看，苏农银行核心营收压力减弱，主要考虑息差拖累有望改善和中收增长预期 较好；②从利润端来看，预计苏农银行有望继续维持中小个位数的利润增速增长。维持目标价6.77元/ 股，对应目标估值2026年0.66xPB，现价空间37%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201), which has seen a 1.01% increase in intraday trading, with significant inflows of over 538 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, marking a new high in its scale at 10.191 billion yuan and 7.931 billion shares [1] - Zheshang Securities predicts that the Chinese economy is expected to achieve a "good start" in 2026, with macro policies returning to normal and focusing on new productive forces [1] - The A-share market has entered a phase of "systematic slow growth," with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to show an "N" shaped trend [1] Group 2 - Investment themes are focused on consumption, technology growth, and high-end manufacturing, while also recognizing the stabilizing role of dividend assets [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF and its linked funds closely track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, addressing the limitations of traditional dividend strategies by emphasizing financial health and sustainable growth [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading national chain enterprise in the Chinese casual dining sector, focusing on providing high-quality and standardized Chinese dining experiences [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 26.5 billion yuan in 2021 to 52.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 25% [1] - Gross margin is projected to increase from around 66% to approximately 68%, while net margin is expected to rise from about 9% to 11% during the same period, indicating steady improvement in profitability and capital returns [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The Chinese restaurant market is projected to reach approximately 55 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 9% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The structure of the Chinese and non-Chinese dining markets shows that non-Chinese dining is growing faster, with a CAGR of about 7% compared to 4% for Chinese dining from 2018 to 2023 [2] - The market for standardized Chinese dining, excluding hot pot, is expected to grow from approximately 36 trillion yuan in 2024 to 53 trillion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of about 10% from 2025 to 2028 [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The standardization and digitalization of Chinese dining are ongoing, with the chain restaurant penetration rate at only 23.2%, significantly lower than the US (59.2%) and Japan (52.3%) [3] - The market for budget Chinese dining (under 100 yuan) accounts for over 60% of the total market, estimated at around 30 trillion yuan, with a projected CAGR of 9.4% from 2024 to 2028 [3] - The international Chinese dining market is expected to grow from 233 billion USD in 2020 to 445 billion USD by 2027, with Southeast Asia and Europe as primary expansion targets [3] Group 4: Operational Strategy - Xiaocaiyuan is entering a phase of efficiency realization, supported by a validated business model and a clear urban expansion strategy [4] - The company focuses on "stabilizing same-store sales, expanding network, and improving efficiency," with plans to increase the number of stores from 788 at the end of 2025 to approximately 1,000 by the end of 2026 [4] - Operational improvements include SKU simplification, investment in automation, and reduction of store size, which help maintain a downward trend in labor cost rates during expansion [4]

浙商证券主要观点如下： 全国领先的大众便民中式餐饮连锁企业，稳健扩张驱动增长 小菜园是一家全国领先的大众便民餐饮连锁企业，专注于为消费者提供高品质、标准化的中式餐饮体 验。小菜园凭借SKU精简、供应链体系完善、自动化设备投入及门店面积收缩，正进入效率兑现期，未 来全国扩张潜力巨大。2021-2024年，公司收入由26.5亿元增至52.1亿元，CAGR约25%;毛利率由约66% 提升至约68%，净利率由约9%提升至约11%，盈利能力和资本回报稳步提升。 万亿级市场+行业集中度提升，我国中餐市场增长空间广阔 2024年中国内地餐饮市场规模约55,000+亿元，2020-2024年CAGR约9%。其中中式/非中式餐饮市场结 构明显：增速维度，非中式>中式，2018-2023年非中式/中式餐饮CAGR约7%/4%;规模维度，中式>非中 式，2023年中式/非中式市场规模约40,000+/12,000+亿元。考虑到火锅品类标准化程度高、出餐结构差 异较大，本报告剔除火锅后的中餐市场2024年规模约36,000+亿元，预计至2028年增至53,000+亿元， 2019-2024年CAGR约3%，2025-2028年年均增 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 "New Year Goods Festival" e-commerce competition has intensified, with AI technology becoming a core variable, shifting the industry focus from scale expansion to efficiency improvement [1] - Major e-commerce platforms like Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin are leveraging AI to enhance their operations, while small and medium-sized businesses are utilizing lightweight tools to navigate the competitive landscape [1][2] - The integration of policy support and technological advancements is creating a unique environment for this year's festival, with the Ministry of Commerce leading the "Buy in China" initiative and additional financial incentives boosting consumer spending [1][7] Group 1: AI Integration in E-commerce - Major platforms are using AI to enhance supply chain efficiency and customer experience, with JD.com launching the "AI New Year Map" to predict regional demand variations [3] - AI tools are helping merchants identify commercial hotspots and match products with target users, significantly improving operational conversion rates [2][5] - The application of AI in e-commerce is shifting from traditional recommendation systems to generative models, enhancing user interaction and experience [7][8] Group 2: Consumer Experience and Market Trends - Consumer behavior is evolving with AI-driven instant retail, allowing for quick delivery and personalized recommendations, as evidenced by the sales of imported cherries and strawberries [4][5] - The AI-driven approach is leading to a significant increase in sales for certain product categories, with food sales expected to see double-digit growth this year [2][4] - The trend of "instant gratification" in consumer purchasing is becoming more pronounced, with AI facilitating a more seamless shopping experience [4][5] Group 3: Challenges for Small and Medium-sized Businesses - While AI presents opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency, small and medium-sized businesses face challenges in effectively utilizing these tools, including high understanding costs and the need for time to adapt [8] - Some small merchants have experienced difficulties due to over-reliance on AI for product selection, highlighting the need for a balance between AI insights and human judgment [3][8] - The current landscape indicates that while larger businesses benefit significantly from AI, smaller players must navigate various obstacles to fully leverage these technologies [8]

1月20日，美国市场遭遇"股债汇三杀"：标普500指数重挫2.1%，恐慌指数VIX飙升至去年11月以来新 高，长期美债收益率创9月初以来峰值，美元指数单日跌0.51%。 东方金诚白雪分析，主因是格陵兰岛关税政策及欧洲反制表态推升美欧地缘贸易风险溢价，叠加机构减 持美债、日债波动外溢，共同压低风险偏好，推高美债收益率并打压美元美股。浙商证券（601878）林 成炜指出，美国流动性已处紧平衡(商业银行准备金占GDP约9%)，市场脆弱性上升，外部冲击易引发负 向反馈。 摘要今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4755.57美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 4792.92美元/盎司，下跌0.78%，最高触及4832.94美元/盎司，最低下探4772.19美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4755.57美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4792.92 美元/盎司，下跌0.78%，最高触及4832.94美元/盎司，最低下探4772.19美元/盎司。目前来看，现货黄金 短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 全球市场连锁反应：多国国债遭抛售，欧亚主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务) shares rose over 5%, currently at 15.65 HKD, with a trading volume of 57.28 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's future performance [1] Company Summary - Zheshang Securities (浙商证券) released a report forecasting that China Shipbuilding Defense's 2025 annual performance will meet expectations, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 940 million to 1.12 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.61% to 196.88% [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 850 million to 1.02 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 153.27% to 203.93% [1] - The report suggests that the integration of assembly assets under China Shipbuilding Group is likely to enhance internal collaboration, improve scale effects, and strengthen lean management [1] Industry Summary - Current shipyard capacity is nearing saturation, but the number of active shipyards and delivery volumes have significantly decreased compared to the previous cycle, leading to a tight supply-demand situation that may drive ship prices higher [1] - Due to supply contraction and difficulties in expansion, combined with ship replacement cycles and environmental policies, the tight supply-demand dynamics are expected to push ship prices to new highs, indicating a potential upward trend in the shipbuilding cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Non-Fungible Holdings (00933) with a target price of HKD 0.98, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current market valuation of HKD 97 billion, driven by a turnaround in profits and strong management under the new CEO [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Non-Fungible Holdings is recognized as an excellent international brand operator, managing brands such as Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, and has established a joint venture to operate the Nordic outdoor brand Haglofs in Greater China [2]. - The company reported a revenue of HKD 48.1 billion for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.9% to HKD 1.8 billion [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Clarks, a globally recognized footwear brand, holds a 14.6% market share in the UK and 1.8% in the US, with over 500 direct stores and 3,000 wholesale customers across more than 80 countries [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Clarks generated revenue of HKD 41.5 billion, accounting for 85.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.7%, despite a 5.3% year-on-year decline in revenue due to weak demand from US tariff policies and strategic product optimization [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Clarks plans to open new concept stores globally, including three independent Cloudstepper stores in Malaysia and the US by 2025, and a larger Canvas retail concept store in London's Tottenham Court Road [3]. - The company is expanding its online sales network, launching its first self-operated UK e-commerce platform, clarks.com, in early 2026, and entering various online marketplaces in Europe and the Americas, resulting in a 9.7% year-on-year increase in online revenue to HKD 6.3 billion for the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 4: Management Changes - Victor Herrero has been appointed as the new co-CEO and CEO of Clarks, bringing extensive management experience from previous roles at Lovisa, Guess, and Inditex, and has successfully led the company to profitability with a 60.9% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [3][4]. Group 5: Outdoor Brand Expansion - The company has formed a joint venture with Ryan Capital to operate Haglofs in Greater China, planning to open over 20 direct stores by 2025, including the first global VASA flagship store in Shanghai [4].