Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to fully recover in 2025 after experiencing a significant downturn from 2021 to 2024, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 50% during that period. The market revival is driven by technological breakthroughs and a surge in IPO activities, establishing a solid foundation for a comprehensive rebound [1]. IPO Market Performance - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to lead the global IPO market with a total financing amount of 286.3 billion HKD from approximately 114 IPOs [2]. - The top five exchanges for global IPO financing in 2025 are: Hong Kong Stock Exchange (286.3 billion HKD, 114 IPOs), Nasdaq (205.2 billion HKD, 175 IPOs), National Stock Exchange of India (168.2 billion HKD, 222 IPOs), New York Stock Exchange (150.2 billion HKD, 56 IPOs), and Shanghai Stock Exchange (87.3 billion HKD, 42 IPOs) [2]. - Eight companies in the top ten IPOs of 2025 raised over 10 billion HKD each, with notable contributions from companies like CATL and Zijin Mining [11]. IPO Quality and Market Sentiment - The IPO breakage rate in 2025 is reported at 28.83%, the lowest in five years, indicating a positive market sentiment and improved quality of IPOs [12]. - The new pricing mechanism implemented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has strengthened institutional investors' pricing power, contributing to the lower breakage rate [12]. Record-Breaking Subscription Metrics - The IPO market in Hong Kong has seen record-breaking subscription metrics, with companies like Jinye International Group achieving a subscription multiple of 11,465 times, setting a historical record [13]. - The "frozen capital" for the IPO of Mixue Group reached 1.84 trillion HKD, marking it as the "frozen capital king" in Hong Kong IPO history [13]. Secondary Financing Market - The total refinancing amount in Hong Kong for 2025 exceeded 316.6 billion HKD, surpassing the IPO scale and reaching a new high in project numbers with 560 projects [14]. - Major companies like BYD and Xiaomi led the top refinancing projects, raising significant amounts for business expansion and development [15]. Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index recorded a year-to-date increase of 28.49%, ranking among the top global indices [16]. - Sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors have shown significant growth, with stocks like Aijie Ankang experiencing a staggering increase of 950.95% [17]. Capital Inflows and Market Dynamics - Southbound capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market reached a record high of approximately 1.41 trillion HKD in 2025, significantly enhancing market liquidity [18][19]. - The total buyback amount by listed companies in Hong Kong exceeded 175.9 billion HKD, indicating strong buyback enthusiasm amid market recovery [20][21]. Dividend Distribution - The total dividend distribution in the Hong Kong market for 2025 reached nearly 1.46 trillion HKD, surpassing the total for 2024 and reflecting a robust dividend environment [22]. Delisting Trends - The delisting process in Hong Kong accelerated in 2025, with 61 companies exiting the market, primarily due to privatization and forced delisting [23].

有色股小幅高开，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨3.18%，报15.27港元；五矿资源(01208)涨3.11%， 报8.94港元；中国白银集团(00815)涨2.82%，报0.73港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨1.68%，报 37.62港元；招金矿业(01818)涨1.45%，报33.66港元。 消息面上，近期，有色金属牛市持续演绎。贵金属方面，12月24日，现货黄金史上首次站上4500美元/ 盎司，今年累计上涨超70%；现货白银涨则突破70美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高；现货铂金、现货钯 金也涨势强劲。此外，LME铜盘中突破12000美元/吨，为该期货历史首次。 对于这一轮有色金属价格强势上行的原因，中信建投（601066）研报指出，主要是美国11月CPI超预期 降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等 工业金属亦表现强势。华龙证券指出，在地缘对抗升级、全球经济增长失速、资源民族主义抬头背景 下，有色金属景气度持续提升，主要金属品种价格持续走高。该行认为金属景气度有望维持。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a bullish trend in the non-ferrous metal market, with significant price increases in precious metals and industrial metals [1] Group 2 - As of the report, several non-ferrous stocks opened higher, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 3.18% at HKD 15.27, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.11% at HKD 8.94, China Silver Group (00815) up 2.82% at HKD 0.73, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 1.68% at HKD 37.62, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 1.45% at HKD 33.66 [1] - Precious metals have seen remarkable price increases, with spot gold reaching an all-time high of USD 4500 per ounce, a year-to-date increase of over 70%, and spot silver surpassing USD 70 per ounce [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price has also broken through USD 12000 per ton for the first time in history [1] Group 3 - The strong price surge in non-ferrous metals is attributed to the unexpected cooling of the US November CPI, leading to market adjustments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Both precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as industrial metals such as tin, copper, and aluminum, are showing strong performance [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdown, and rising resource nationalism are contributing to the sustained demand and price increases in non-ferrous metals [1]

Market Overview - On December 23, Hong Kong stocks experienced a pullback, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.11% to 25,774.14 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.69% to 5,488.89 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.29% to 8,913.83 points [3][4] - The overall market turnover was HKD 157.1 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 600 million [3][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed significant volatility, with some gold stocks experiencing declines. Notable declines included China Nonferrous Mining (-3.77%), China Daye Nonferrous Metals (-3.12%), and China Silver Group (-2.74%) [5][6] - The electrical sector performed strongly, with Dongfang Electric rising over 8%, and other companies like Harbin Electric and China High-Speed Transmission also showing gains [7][8] - Most domestic bank stocks saw increases, with Huishang Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China Hong Kong, and Bohai Bank all rising by over 1% [9][10] Company Highlights - Dongfang Electric is in discussions with U.S. data center clients regarding potential sales of gas turbine generator sets, driven by strong demand and attractive pricing [7] - On December 23, Lighter Health Group was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closing up 158.82% on its first day of trading, following a 127.95% increase in pre-listing trading [11] - Lighter Health Group, founded in 2014, focuses on comprehensive health management services and health insurance solutions, having raised over USD 100 million through multiple funding rounds [11]

| 找钢集团－Ｗ(06676) | 1.640 | 1.600 | -4.76% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金地商置(00535) | 0.161 | 0.161 | -4.73% | | 旭辉控股集团(00884) | 0.159 | 0.156 | -4.29% | | 金叶国际集团(08549) | 0.340 | 0.335 | -4.29% | | 南华期货股份(02691) | 9.130 | 8.330 | -4.25% | | 中国奥园(03883) | 0.077 | 0.075 | -3.85% | | 中智药业(03737) | 0.530 | 0.500 | -3.85% | | 合富辉煌(00733) | 0.260 | 0.260 | -3.70% | | 泛海集团(00129) | 0.255 | 0.240 | -3.23% | | 彩虹新能源(00438) | 1.920 | 1.830 | -3.17% | | ＸＩ二南三星－Ｕ(09347) | 0.175 | 0.175 | -2.78% | | 金岩高岭新材(02693) | 5.02 ...

郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 23 日 人民币升值，"结汇潮"的助推——汇率双周报系列之六 10 月中旬以来，美元小幅贬值背景下、人民币大幅升值；这一非对称的涨 势引发了市场对"年终结汇"的热议。本轮升值是不是结汇推动、后续人 民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，供参考。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3917 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 1.28 | | 深证综指 | 2493 | 1.13 | 5.16 | 1.56 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 20.31 | | 中盘指数 | 1.42 | 6.66 | 29.76 | | 小盘指数 | 1.12 | 5.06 | 25.03 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | ...

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 铜：需求结构重塑 沪铜步入新纪元 有色金属/铜 内容提要： ◆ 2025 年铜市在"政策扰动+供应紧缩"双重驱动下走出历史级行情。年初 政策预期升温推升价格；二季度关税冲击与矿端收紧博弈，价格深跌反弹； 三季度高位震荡，事件与政策交织；四季度宏观压制缓和、供应焦虑加剧， 推动铜价强势突破，沪铜主力合约年末突破 9.4 万元/吨，伦铜触及 1.16 万 美元/吨，双双创历史新高。 ◆ 宏观层面，美联储全年降息三次，但进程分歧明显，年末定调"鹰派落 地"，2026 年降息节奏预计缓慢且反复。国内"十五五"规划开局，政策托 底明确，高质量发展主线为铜需求提供结构性支撑。中美贸易政策仍是重要 变量，关税预期间歇性扰动市场情绪与贸易流向。 ◆ 供给端进入紧平衡阶段。全球铜矿产量增速仅约 1%，新增项目贡献不 足，地缘与运营风险持续侵蚀供应弹性。铜精矿 TC/RC 深陷负值并进一步下 探，冶炼行业盈利模式崩塌，步入"负利润"生产常态。2026 年全球精炼铜 产量增速或转为负增长，标志产能扩张周期迎来强制性调整。 ◆ 需求端结构性分化延续。新兴领域仍是核心动能，新能源汽车渗透率突破 53 ...

Group 1 - The G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, in November 2025, highlights the deepening cooperation between China and Africa in the mining sector, emphasizing themes of unity, equality, and sustainability [1][2] - Chinese mining companies are increasingly localizing their operations in Africa, transforming from perceived outsiders to co-builders, as seen in the successful local management of previously abandoned mines [1][2] - The "Green Mineral International Trade Cooperation Initiative" announced by Premier Li Qiang at the G20 summit outlines seven key areas for cooperation, aimed at promoting sustainable development and a new type of partnership in mineral resource cooperation [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt are setting examples of successful local engagement and resource utilization in Africa, establishing mechanisms for shared benefits with local communities [2] - The shift from "resource-for-infrastructure" to a "mining symbiosis" model reflects a new chapter in China-Africa cooperation, fostering a more systematic and institutionalized framework for collaboration [2] - Beyond minerals like gold, copper, and lithium, Chinese mining enterprises are contributing to the development confidence of the Global South and the concept of a shared human destiny [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese mining companies are increasingly establishing a significant presence in Africa, transforming from outsiders to co-builders in the region's mining sector, driven by a new model of cooperation and local engagement [4][5]. Group 1: Overview of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa - Chinese mining enterprises are deeply rooted in Africa, with operations spanning from cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo to lithium mines in Mali and gold mines in South Africa [4]. - The approach of these companies has evolved, focusing on local operations and community engagement, as exemplified by the successful revitalization of previously abandoned gold mines through localized management [4][5]. Group 2: Case Studies of Successful Operations - In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Luoyang Molybdenum's KFM copper-cobalt mine transitioned from greenfield to production in just 806 days, establishing a "shared benefits" mechanism with local communities [5]. - In Zimbabwe, Huayou Cobalt adapted to a lithium export ban by shifting to local manufacturing, effectively converting resource advantages into industrial capabilities [5]. Group 3: New Cooperation Frameworks - The G20 summit in Johannesburg highlighted new initiatives for international cooperation in green mining, emphasizing seven key areas such as creating a safe policy environment and enhancing technological exchanges [6]. - The initiatives aim to foster sustainable development and establish a fair and open partnership in mineral resource cooperation, reflecting a broader commitment to global development and community well-being [6].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.87% and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (159751) gained 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159318) increased by 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - The aviation freight and logistics sector, along with the forestry and paper products sector, showed strong gains [1] - The construction products sector experienced significant declines [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Duty Free Group saw a notable increase of 15.77% - Mixue Group rose by 10.13% - Other significant gainers included: - Lao Pu Gold at 6.46% - Zhaojin Mining at 6.04% - SMIC at 5.92% - Shandong Gold at 5.48% - Zijin Mining at 5.3% - Huahong Semiconductor at 5.17% - Jiangxi Copper at 4.86% - Pop Mart at 4.61% - Ganfeng Lithium at 4.45% - Minmetals Resources at 4.16% [1] - On the downside, Tanwan fell by 5.16% and Zhouliufu dropped by 5.19% [1] - Brainstorm Aurora-B surged by 13.75% [1]