Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in new home sales across major cities in 2025. The overall new home transaction area in 40 key cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a larger decline of 16% compared to second, third, and fourth-tier cities [1][3] - The second-hand housing market showed a mixed performance, with a year-on-year decline of 31% but a month-on-month increase of 13% in December 2025 [1][5] Key Points and Arguments New Home Market Performance - In December 2025, new home sales in 40 tracked cities increased by 34% month-on-month but decreased by 32% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 33% month-on-month increase but a 29% year-on-year decline [2] - The overall new home market for 2025 showed a 14% year-on-year decline, with Shenzhen experiencing a significant drop of 35% [3] Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home market performed better than the new home market, with an overall year-on-year decline of only 4%. First-tier cities recorded a 2% increase year-on-year, while second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw declines of 6% and 10% respectively [1][5] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - By the end of 2025, the narrow inventory area in 12 major cities decreased by 8% compared to the end of 2024, but the overall depletion cycle increased to 17.8 months, up by 3.5 months year-on-year [1][6] Land Market Trends - The land market in 2025 faced a decline in both volume and price, with total construction area down by 9% and total price down by 10%. The average floor price decreased by 2% year-on-year [1][7] Sales and Industry Concentration - The sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 20% to 2.46 trillion yuan. The market concentration continued to decline, with the CR5 market share dropping to 10% [1][8] Land Acquisition by Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies' land acquisition amount reached 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but still significantly below 2021 levels. The acquisition intensity was 33%, up by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] Financing Situation - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in the real estate industry grew by 6% to 596.7 billion yuan in 2025. The average issuance rate was 2.69%, down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [1][11] Policy Impacts - Recent policies emphasize high-quality urban renewal and risk mitigation in key areas. The personal housing sales tax rate will decrease from 5% to 3% starting in 2026, and there will be expansions in the scope of infrastructure REITs [1][12][13] Market Outlook - The real estate industry is expected to continue facing adjustment pressures, with both new and second-hand home transaction volumes showing negative year-on-year growth. Potential policy adjustments in early 2026 may help stabilize the market [1][15] Additional Important Insights - The absolute return of the real estate sector in December was negative 4%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 6.2 percentage points. For the entire year, the absolute return was 1.8%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 15.8 percentage points [1][14]

近期香港本地股和内房股轮番修复，以新鸿基等为代表的香港本地龙头创历史新高，内房股今天也有明显修复， 背后我们认为存在以下因素： 【华泰地产】港股地产股大涨背后 近期香港本地股和内房股轮番修复，以新鸿基等为代表的香港本地龙头创历史新高，内房股今天也有明显修复， 背后我们认为存在以下因素： 1、核心城市二手房市场量价边际改善 26年第二、三周，重点10城二手房带看量均达到18万组以上，较12月平均增长8%，同比分别增长18%、52%；中 介成交数量周均达到8000套，较12月平均增长17%，同比分别增长21%、53%。 【华泰地产】港股地产股大涨背后 同时市场也关注更多政策边际走向。 1、核心城市二手房市场量价边际改善 26年第二、三周，重点10城二手房带看量均达到18万组以上，较12月平均增长8%，同比分别增长18%、52%；中 介成交数量周均达到8000套，较12月平均增长17%，同比分别增长21%、53%。 备案角度，1月1-25日22城二手房备案面积同比-2%（上半月-19%）。 此外，一线城市房价在26年前三周环比分别为-0.07%、-0.04%、持平，较12月周均下跌0.15%有明显改善。 2、政策彰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in the San Dun North area is experiencing a stark contrast between the new project "Runqi Future City," which is attracting significant buyer interest, and the declining prices of second-hand homes in the same region [1][8]. Group 1: Project Overview - "Runqi Future City" is located above the Lianchi Road station of Metro Line 4 and features a temporary sales office and a model unit [2]. - The project is designed using the POD model, divided into two sections: the North area with 16 high-rise buildings and the South area with smaller buildings and commercial spaces [2]. - The North area includes main unit types of 125, 139, 175, and 235 square meters, while the South area primarily offers 110 square meter four-bedroom units [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The San Dun North area has not seen new housing supply for three years, while surrounding areas continue to launch new projects, creating competitive pressure [5][6]. - The price of high-rise units in nearby projects has been fluctuating, with recent prices around 35,945 yuan per square meter, indicating a downward trend in the market [5][6]. Group 3: Advantages and Disadvantages - Advantages of "Runqi Future City" include direct access to the metro, proximity to a park, and a planned commercial area, which are expected to enhance its appeal [3]. - Disadvantages include potential noise from nearby highways and railways, which may affect the residential experience [3]. Group 4: Product Features - The 110 square meter model unit features a practical layout with four bedrooms and upgraded finishes, including central air conditioning and high-end kitchen appliances [4]. - The design emphasizes storage space and includes various modern amenities, such as a smart toilet and a beauty refrigerator [4]. Group 5: Price Trends - The anticipated pricing for "Runqi Future City" is expected to be in the higher range, with reports suggesting that the price for the 235 square meter unit may reach the 40,000 yuan per square meter mark [7]. - The second-hand home prices in the area have seen a significant decline, with some properties dropping below their original opening prices, indicating a challenging market environment [8][9].

专家表示，武汉老牌商业的焕新之路，还将向更深层次延伸，成为推动城市能级跃升、引领中部消费升 级的关键支撑。随着武汉国际化消费环境不断完善，老牌商业将进一步释放消费潜力，带动区域商业高 质量发展。 武汉的破局之道，不在于摒弃百年商脉，而在于以"守正创新"激活商业基因。近年来，武汉锚定国际消 费中心城市、国家商贸物流中心建设目标，为商业焕新筑牢政策支撑、搭建发展平台。商业体主动打破 路径依赖，从"经营商品"转向"经营场景与用户"，在业态创新中守住民生本质，在文化深挖中重塑核心 价值，实现了从"规模扩张"到"价值深耕"的质变，让老牌商业重获时代生命力。 作为城市商业"活化石"的汉正街，跳出低端批发的老路，以武汉国际时装周为纽带集聚500余位设计 师，推动"汉派制造"向"汉派品牌"升级，凭全国30%的女装裤裙、40%的男装市场份额，年销售服装超 20亿件，重拾"汉派商业"的行业话语权；3.29万平方米直播集聚区与跨境电商联动，让"汉派设计"从长 江之畔走向全球。与汉正街相隔不到2公里的江汉路步行街，摆脱"大而全"的同质化怪圈，引入华中首 家二次元主题商场，搭配裸眼3D大屏、非遗市集等多元场景，让百年老街在"文商旅"融 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment around home buying has shifted from urgency to concern about potential losses and resale value, indicating a significant change in market psychology [2] - The real estate market is expected to evolve along three clear trends by 2026, reflecting a new market logic [2] Group 2 - Price declines in the housing market are no longer uniform; a stark differentiation is emerging, with significant disparities between cities and property types [4] - A phenomenon of "structural decline" is becoming evident, where core areas in first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintain stable prices, while weaker areas face severe price drops [6][8] Group 3 - The traditional high-leverage, high-turnover model of real estate development has been fundamentally disrupted, leading to widespread debt defaults among numerous developers [10][12] - Stronger companies, such as Longfor and China Resources, have diversified their operations and established stable cash flows through commercial and long-term rental properties, allowing them to weather the downturn [12][14] Group 4 - The shift towards "current sales" instead of pre-sales is gaining momentum, aimed at reducing the risk of unfinished projects and enhancing buyer confidence [16][18] - Nearly 40 cities have begun piloting or implementing policies for current sales, with a significant increase in the proportion of new homes sold as current properties, rising from approximately 10% in 2019 to about 35% by early 2025 [19][21] Group 5 - The transition to current sales poses a significant challenge for developers, as they can no longer rely on pre-sale funds for project financing, leading to longer capital recovery cycles [23]

第一，参与房企非常有看头，足足有39家。 临近年底，空气中弥漫着浓浓的"年后再说"的味道。 但白云不一样！它是马上就做，而且是猛猛干！ 就在刚刚，白云土发中心召开土地年度推介会，房产君也有幸受邀参加，不得不说，这次的推介会规格很高。 以前是小会议室，今年到了设计之都设计殿堂的大型会议厅，这应该是这几年我参加的土地推介会，规模最大的。 这次推介会，看点十足： 不仅有保利、越秀、中海、城投、华润、国贸等国央企，也有绿城、贝好家、龙湖等民企熟面孔。 还有好几家很久没在广州土拍市场露面的房企，像是和记黄埔、时代等，还有东亚新华、远东宏信等新面孔。 | | | | | | 白云区2026年土地推介会一 | 一中建中轴"三生"融合主题分享用企否则表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 参会代表1 | | 色合代表2(姓名、电话) | | | 参会代表3(姓名。雕语) | | | 序号 | ग्रहरू | | 姓名 | | 电话 | 姓名 | 电话 | 姓名 | | 电话 | | l ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate Key Points on New and Second-hand Housing Market - New housing transaction area decreased by 9.7% month-on-month and 39.6% year-on-year across 40 cities [1] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 4.4% month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year in 18 cities [1] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year across 12 cities, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.7 months, which is an increase of 0.8 months month-on-month and 5.5 months year-on-year [1] Land Transaction Insights - Land transaction area across 100 cities decreased by 3.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Average land price increased by 1.7% month-on-month but decreased by 15.8% year-on-year [1] - Premium rate for land transactions was 0.7%, down by 1.0 percentage points month-on-month and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Stability and Price Control - The core to stabilizing the real estate market lies in maintaining prices, with expectations for second-hand housing transaction volume to average between 500-600 million square meters in 2024 [2] - First-tier cities, particularly Shanghai, are experiencing unique price increases, indicating a divergence in market trends [2] - Supply-side measures are necessary to de-stock, with new project launch de-stocking rates significantly higher post-policy adjustments [2] - Demand-side policies such as effective use of housing provident funds, tax reductions, and mortgage interest deductions are suggested to boost housing consumption [2] Developer Financing and Investment Stability - Key to stabilizing real estate investment is addressing developers' financing needs [3] - Recommendations include supporting reasonable financing demands of non-state-owned enterprises and establishing a unified management system for developers' financing [3] - Emphasis on accelerating the implementation of special bond storage for affordable housing and urban renewal as a means to stabilize the market [3] - Investment suggestions highlight the importance of liquidity safety and focusing on high-capacity cities and strong product offerings among real estate companies [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include China Resources, Binjiang, and Poly Real Estate, among others [4] - Emphasis on commercial real estate companies that are adapting to new consumption trends and innovative business models [3]

■重点关注 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4705.69 | (0.03) | | 中小 100 | 8725.73 | (0.20) | | 创业板指 | 3342.60 | 0.71 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 电子 | 2.27 | 煤炭 | (2.27) | | 通信 | 2.15 | 农林牧渔 | (1.95) | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 钢铁 | (1.34) | | 机械设备 | 0.64 | 美容护理 | (1.22) | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 医药生物 | (1.11) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260128 重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年工企利润数据点评—期待 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月27日 华源晨会精粹 20260127 金融工程 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析：2025 年四季度公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金 规模发生明显切换：投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上 季度规模缩减 1823 亿元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出， 向中低风险的含权债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基 的新发热度升高，发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。主动权益基金：对港股的 配置热情明显下降，显著增配周期板块。行业维度上，电子、通信、电新为重仓前 三，有色金属、基础化工和非银主动加仓最多。股债混合型基金：同样呈现出减仓 港股、加仓创业板的特征，2025 年四季度重仓股中占比最高的三个行业分别为电子、 有色和通信，主动加仓最多的行业为电子、通信和非银。含权债基：是承接资金向 中低风险迁移的重要方向，权益配置上向周期和大金融倾斜，对医药板块的减仓幅 度较大；债券方面，持续降低可转债仓位，转向利率债和信用债。纯债基金：是 ...