地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. COMEX 黄金期货上涨 1.91%报 5179.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 2.73%报 112.34 美元/盎司。市场对美联储政策不确定性及降息阻力的担忧，叠加各国央 行持续增持黄金储备，支撑黄金需求，推动金价上涨。 2. 国际油价集 ...

国信证券发布研报称，维持安踏体育(02020)"优于大市"评级。该行维持盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为132.1/139.3/155.8亿元，可比口径的利润增长分别为+10.7%/5.5%/11.9%(2024年剔除 Amer上市和配售权益摊薄所得的可比口径利润为119.3亿元)。维持107-112港元目标价，对应2026年20- 21XPE。 国信证券主要观点如下： 此次安踏对PUMA的收购，是公司全球化战略的进一步深化，PUMA在全球运动鞋服市场份额领先，在 多个专业运动项目以及欧洲等重点市场具有领先地位和先进经验与安踏集团品牌矩阵有协同性和互补 性；PUMA虽然短期增长乏力、盈利承压，但现管理层正推动品牌复苏，致力于2027年恢复增长，安踏 加入后更有望焕发品牌新增长活力。 1月26日，公司公告与Pinault家族的投资公司Groupe Artémis达成购股协议，以每股35欧元的价格收购 PUMASE共计43,014,760股普通股(占其全部已发行股本约29.06%)，总对价15.05亿欧元(约合人民币 122.78亿元)。 风险提示 标的概况 关税政策不确定性;品牌形象受损 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Market Indices Performance**: - Hang Seng Index (HSI): +1.1% [1] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI): +0.9% [1] - Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH): +0.2% [1] - **Market Turnover**: HKD 135 billion, down 8.7% from the previous trading day [1] - **Southbound Capital Inflow**: - Leading sectors: Financials (FINS) +1.9%, Consumer Discretionary (CONS DISC) +0.9%, Materials (MATL) +0.9% [1] - Lagging sectors: Healthcare (HEALTHCARE) -0.1%, Real Estate & Consumer Staples (PROP & CONS) -0.3%, Energy (ENERGY) -0.3% [1] Key Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance with the HSI rising by 1.1% [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in market turnover, large-cap stocks drove market performance, particularly in the banking and insurance sectors [1] - The market is currently driven by capital rather than significant news, with large-cap stocks outperforming mid-cap stocks (Hang Seng Midcap Index +0.2% vs. Hang Seng Large Cap Index +1.4%) [1] - **Market Factors**: - Market factors such as market capitalization and earnings revisions performed well, while volatility and growth factors lagged [1] - Southbound capital inflow remained moderate despite the market's strength [1] Trading Strategy - **Trading Desk Activity**: - The trading desk adopted an overall selling bias, reducing positions across sectors and favoring low-beta assets over high-beta assets [1] - Defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Banks, and Real Estate were sold, while high-beta sectors like Media & Entertainment and Gold were also reduced [1] - However, purchases were made based on AI news and battery supply chain logic during the morning session [1] Notable Company Activities - **Zijin Mining**: Announced a cash acquisition of Allied Gold at a 27% premium to its 30-day average price, resulting in a 10.6% increase in Zijin's stock price [1] - **Anta Sports**: Announced the acquisition of 43 million shares of Puma at €35 per share, a 62% premium to Puma's previous closing price, leading to a 1.4% increase in Anta's stock price [1] - **Alibaba**: Launched a flagship inference model that set multiple global records in authoritative evaluations, resulting in a 2.2% increase in Alibaba's stock price [1] - **Baidu**: Experienced a slight decline of 0.2% in the same news context as Alibaba [1] Additional Insights - **AI Business Spin-offs**: Both Alibaba and Baidu have spun off their AI business segments and plan to conduct IPOs [2] - **Healthcare Sector**: The healthcare sector continues to show weak performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Anta Sports (02020) and keeps its profit forecast unchanged, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with comparable profit growth rates of +10.7%, +5.5%, and +11.9% respectively [1] - The target price is maintained at 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20-21X for 2026 [1] - On January 26, the company announced an agreement to acquire 43,014,760 shares of PUMA from the Pinault family's investment company Groupe Artémis at a price of 35 euros per share, totaling 1.505 billion euros (approximately 12.278 billion RMB), which represents about 29.06% of PUMA's total issued share capital [1] Group 2 - PUMA's current management is driving brand recovery, which may incur one-time costs, with a goal to restore growth by 2027; the acquisition price of 1.505 billion euros for a 29.06% stake corresponds to approximately 0.7x PUMA's projected price-to-sales ratio for 2027 [2] - Anta Group's globalization strategy is further deepening, and PUMA's future growth is promising; the acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance Anta's multi-brand global operations, leveraging PUMA's leading market share in the global sports footwear and apparel market [2] - Although PUMA is currently facing growth challenges and profitability pressures, the management's efforts to revitalize the brand are expected to bring new growth opportunities after Anta's involvement [2]

Summary of Key Points from Anta's Acquisition of Puma Stake Company Involved - Anta Sports Products Limited (安踏) - Puma SE (Puma) Core Points and Arguments - Anta has acquired a 29.06% stake in Puma for approximately €1.5 billion (RMB 12.3 billion), with the funding sourced entirely from the company's cash reserves [1] - The transaction is subject to review by national authorities, with an expected completion timeline of 6 to 10 months [1] - There are currently no plans for privatization; Anta will not take full operational control but will appoint representatives to collaborate with Puma's management team [1] - Puma's revenue in China is currently small, and Anta aims to leverage its channels, supply chain resources, and operational capabilities to help Puma expand in the Chinese market [1] Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - Risks associated with the acquisition include fluctuations in the consumer environment, potential delays in the acquisition process, and macro-political uncertainties [2]

Summary of Anta Sports' Acquisition of PUMA Company and Industry Overview - **Company Involved**: Anta Sports - **Target Company**: PUMA - **Industry**: Sportswear and Footwear Key Points and Arguments Transaction Details - Anta Sports acquired approximately 29.06% of PUMA's shares, becoming the largest single shareholder [1] - The transaction price is approximately €1.5055 billion (around ¥12.278 billion) [1] - The share price of €35 represents a 61.8% premium over the closing price prior to the announcement [1] Payment Method - The entire payment will be made using Anta's cash reserves, with no new debt incurred [2] PUMA's Financial Status - PUMA's projected net profits for 2022-2024 are €354 million, €305 million, and €282 million respectively, with a loss of €309 million expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] Strategic Rationale for Acquisition 1. **Long-term Brand Value**: - Anta values PUMA's nearly 80-year history and its established position in core sports areas like football and running, viewing it as a long-term investment opportunity [3] - Current stock price and valuation do not reflect PUMA's intrinsic brand value, indicating a window for long-term investment [3] 2. **Market Potential in China**: - PUMA's revenue in China currently accounts for only about 7% of its global income, suggesting significant growth potential compared to other international brands with higher market shares in China [4] - Anta plans to leverage its successful "brand + retail" model and consumer insights to support PUMA's growth in the Chinese market [4] 3. **Globalization and Multi-brand Strategy**: - The acquisition is a key step in Anta's "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy [4] - PUMA's strong influence in Europe, North America, and Africa will directly support Anta's global expansion efforts [4] Financial and Valuation Insights - The brand value cannot be accurately measured by current market capitalization [5] - The acquisition price is based on an enterprise value/2027 expected revenue ratio of approximately 0.8 times, which is considered reasonable [5] - The use of cash reserves for the transaction will not affect Anta's dividend policy for 2025, ensuring a healthy and stable dividend outlook [5] Synergy Plans and Path to Profitability 1. **Role Definition**: - As the largest shareholder, Anta aims to gain sufficient representation on PUMA's supervisory board, collaborating as an "advisor and supporter" rather than directly managing operations [6] 2. **Empowerment**: - Anta will share its successful experiences to help PUMA improve in areas such as branding, product development, and retail efficiency, with a primary focus on the Chinese market [6] 3. **Collaboration**: - Anta acknowledges PUMA's management's transformation plan and emphasizes that revitalization will require time [6] - Building trust is crucial for collaboration while maintaining PUMA's operational independence [7] Approval Risks and Next Steps - The transaction requires approval from regulatory authorities in China, Germany, the United States, and other regions, with an expected timeline of 6-10 months [7] - If the deal fails to complete, Anta will incur a €100 million exclusivity commitment fee [7] - The agreement includes an "additional payment mechanism," where Anta must compensate the sellers for any price difference if PUMA is acquired or delisted at a higher price within 15 months [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Anta Sports (02020) maintains its EPS forecast of 4.71 yuan for 2025, with projections of 4.76 and 5.04 yuan for 2026 and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14x and 13x for those years, and maintains an outperform rating for the industry [1] - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of a 29.06% stake in Puma SE for 35 euros per share, totaling approximately 1.506 billion euros (about 12.278 billion yuan), fully funded by its cash reserves, positioning Anta as the largest shareholder of Puma upon completion of the transaction [2] - The transaction price is considered reasonable based on Puma's long-term brand value, with the acquisition price representing 0.8 times the enterprise value to the expected revenue for 2027 [3] Group 2 - Puma is an internationally leading sports brand with over 70 years of history, excelling in football, running, racing, basketball, and cross-training, and has a strong global influence, particularly in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and India, while its revenue from the Chinese market remains relatively low [4] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Anta Sports' brand portfolio and improve its overall international competitiveness through complementary product offerings and regional strengths [4] - Anta Sports has successfully developed brands like FILA, Descente, and Kolon in China and aims to leverage its established global brand-building, retail, and supply chain systems to reactivate Puma's brand value post-acquisition [5]

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 1月27日，安踏集团发布公告，拟出资约122.78亿元收购德国运动品牌彪马29.06%的股权，成为其最大 股东。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The profit cycle for industrial enterprises has entered an upward channel, with significant year-on-year profit growth in December despite high base pressure, indicating a recovery in volume, price, and profit margins [2] - Profit growth is primarily driven by upstream non-ferrous metals and midstream equipment manufacturing, linked to tightening global resource competition and effective domestic policies [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, a rebound in PPI readings and stabilization in investment are expected to support continued recovery in industrial profits, with profit distribution increasingly favoring midstream and upstream sectors [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The results of the mechanism electricity price bidding for new energy projects show significant differentiation, with some provinces still having downward space for future electricity prices [4] - Existing projects are seeing improved cash flow, and attention is drawn to the valuation recovery of leading companies in the sector [4] - The integration of wind, solar, hydrogen, and methanol is identified as a core path for new energy operators to explore a second growth curve [4] Group 3: Company Research - Anta Sports (2020.HK) plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for a total consideration of €1.5 billion, funded by its own resources, with a PE ratio of 15 times based on PUMA's 2024 net profit [6] - This acquisition marks a significant milestone in Anta's multi-brand and global strategy, positioning the company as a minority shareholder in a leading global sports brand [6] - The EPS estimates for Anta for 2025-2027 are maintained at 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB, with a PE ratio of 15, 13, and 12 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Sector Focus - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is focusing on a new industrial structure characterized by "one base, two wings, three chains, and four new" as part of its strategic development for 2026 [5] - The company benefits from an integrated full industrial chain advantage, with recommendations to focus on Sinopec, Sinopec Oilfield Service, and other related entities [5] - The report highlights the achievements of Sinopec in 2025 and outlines the goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure and price stability in oil and gas [5]

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the growth of "fixed income+" funds, with a total of 2,091 funds accounting for 15.4% of the entire fund market as of Q4 2025, with 85 new funds launched in Q4 alone, a significant increase from the previous year [7] - The total assets and net assets of these funds reached 32,023 billion and 28,442 billion respectively, showing a substantial increase from the previous quarter [7] - The average leverage ratio for these funds increased to 1.13, indicating a slight rise in risk appetite among investors [7] Chemical Industry - The report discusses the long-term supply contraction in the refining and chemical sector, driven by policies that restrict new refining capacity and promote the transformation of existing facilities [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has implemented a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, emphasizing the need for "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" to optimize the industry structure [9] - The report anticipates that the profitability of refining and chemical companies will improve due to a favorable cost environment and structural adjustments in supply and demand [11][12] Electronic Industry - The electronic industry is experiencing a shift from structural shortages to widespread price increases, driven by sustained high demand for AI computing and storage capabilities [16] - The report notes that the price of NAND Flash and DRAM has risen significantly, with recent increases of 18% and 33% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend in the storage market [19] - Companies involved in the semiconductor and storage sectors are expected to benefit from this trend, with specific recommendations for firms like 德明利 and 江波龙 [19] Media and Internet - The media sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase of 0.96% in the industry index, outperforming major indices like the沪深300 [26] - The report highlights significant cash distributions during the Spring Festival, indicating strong cash flow and potential for reinvestment in AI applications [27] - Companies like 阿里通义 and 字节跳动 are making strides in AI technology, which is expected to enhance their market positions and drive future growth [27] Sportswear Industry - The report details the performance of 特步国际, noting that its main brand's sales remained flat while the索康尼 brand saw over 30% growth, indicating a divergence in brand performance [34] - 安踏体育's acquisition of a 29.06% stake in PUMA is seen as a strategic move to enhance its global presence and leverage PUMA's market position [36] - The report projects steady growth for 特步国际's main brand, focusing on the running category, while also highlighting the potential for profitability improvements in the professional sports brand segment [35]