证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-10 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20260208：1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险——海外 宏观与交易复盘 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大宗 商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流动性冲 击更多来自交易层面，而海外宏观基本面和广义流动性环境并未有显著 变化，这意味着部分资产存在被流动性冲击"错杀"的可能。关注下周公 布的 1 月美国非农就业和 CPI 数据，我们预期二者均存在上行风险，令 本周略有升温的美联储降息预期再度面临回调。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208：预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社 融小幅同比多增 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 [Table_Tag] 节前经济供需两端基本符合季节性特征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is shifting from "incremental competition" to "stock game," with a focus on technology, user experience, and value in the context of increasing penetration of electric vehicles [1] Industry Trends - The competition in the electric vehicle sector has evolved beyond price wars to include comprehensive assessments of technology, user operations, and brand strategies, particularly in the niche of "ice and snow travel" [1] - The implementation of a mandatory electric vehicle energy consumption limit standard starting January 1, 2026, will compel companies to upgrade their technologies and shift from a crude battery-stacking approach to refined cold-weather technology development [2] Company Initiatives - Great Wall Motors launched an "Ice and Snow Happy Week" in Harbin, addressing electric vehicle owners' concerns about winter driving through user engagement and the establishment of a rescue fund and warm service stations [1][3] - The company emphasizes a user-centered approach, with feedback from real-world experiences being crucial for product development and improvement [2][3] Technical Developments - The performance of electric vehicles in cold environments is a significant concern, with issues such as reduced battery activity and challenges in traction and stability on icy roads being highlighted [1] - Great Wall Motors is focusing on developing technologies tailored for cold weather, with its Hi4 technology system designed to enhance stability and safety on icy surfaces [3][4] Strategic Importance - The significance of the ice and snow travel sector has risen to a strategic level within the industry, driven by the vast market potential in northern regions and the technological advancements that can enhance the overall electric vehicle ecosystem [4] - Great Wall Motors has integrated its approach to ice and snow travel across research, production, and service, establishing a comprehensive framework for safety and performance standards [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. The focus is on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an estimated 40,000 units sold, a 40% increase year-on-year, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with a significant rise in large-displacement motorcycles [26][27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report emphasizes a recovery in the passenger vehicle market, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies that are less affected by policy changes. Key players include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [25][26]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market had a strong performance in 2025, with wholesale sales of 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year. The report forecasts a stable outlook for 2026, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][28]. Buses - The bus market is expected to grow in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase. This growth is attributed to the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to see significant growth [26][27].

Global Macro - The nomination of Kevin Warsh reflects a rebalancing of monetary policy under the constraints of the Trump 2.0 policy framework, aiming to enhance the alignment of monetary policy with growth and financing cost objectives [2] - Warsh's selection is seen as an optimal compromise, meeting Trump's criteria of being communicative, favoring low interest rates, and avoiding an immediate "independence crisis" narrative [2] - The significance of Warsh's nomination lies not in an immediate change in interest rates but in altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's "toolbox weight" and "intervention boundaries," potentially triggering repricing of term premiums and volatility [2] Asset Implications - The interest rate curve is likely to steepen, with the Federal Reserve expected to tolerate higher long-term rates and risk asset volatility, leading to a scenario where short-term rates decrease while long-term rates remain stable or even rise [3] - The dollar may strengthen in the medium term, provided the narrative of independence is not compromised, despite potential interest rate cuts [3] - A systemic elevation in volatility is anticipated as the Federal Reserve gradually withdraws from micro-management, allowing asset prices to be determined more by fundamentals rather than liquidity illusions [3] Company Focus: NIO Inc. - NIO reported a positive earnings surprise for Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan, marking the first quarter of positive operating profit for the company [6] - This turning point is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and cost reduction efforts, validating the operational leverage of its business model [6] - Looking ahead to 2026, while the first half may experience fluctuations in profit due to seasonal and cost pressures, the launch of new large SUV models in the second half is expected to boost gross margins, making the new vehicle cycle a key catalyst for valuation reassessment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Ice and Snow Carnival Week" organized by Great Wall Motors in Harbin emphasizes the integration of technology, culture, and user experience, showcasing the brand's commitment to safety and innovation in extreme winter conditions [1][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Ice and Snow Carnival Week was held in Harbin, featuring the theme "Enjoy Ice and Snow with Lao Wei, Safe Travel with Great Wall" [1]. - The event served as a platform for Great Wall Motors to connect with car enthusiasts nationwide, highlighting the brand's philosophy of "technology for good and user-centric" [1][11]. Group 2: Safety and Performance - The event showcased the safety features of Great Wall vehicles on the icy surface of the Songhua River, with a display of vehicles forming the "Guiyuan" formation, symbolizing industrial aesthetics [3]. - Chairman Wei Jianjun emphasized the importance of safe driving practices and professional support in winter conditions, reflecting the company's commitment to user safety [3][5]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - Great Wall Motors demonstrated its Hi4 technology system, which adapts well to extreme cold, ensuring safe travel across various winter terrains [8]. - The Hi4 system includes features for intelligent four-wheel drive and torque distribution, enhancing stability and performance in snowy conditions [8][10]. Group 4: Cultural Engagement - The event included interactions with artisans of intangible cultural heritage, fostering a dialogue about craftsmanship and dedication across different industries [8]. - Wei Jianjun highlighted the shared values of patience and respect in both automotive manufacturing and traditional crafts, reinforcing the brand's commitment to quality [8]. Group 5: Community and Social Responsibility - Great Wall Motors announced the establishment of a rescue fund to support car owners engaged in community service, enhancing the brand's social responsibility [10]. - The company also introduced warm service initiatives at over 20 transportation hubs, providing free supplies to enhance user comfort during winter travel [10]. Group 6: Future Commitment - The Ice and Snow Carnival Week exemplified Great Wall Motors' dedication to blending technology with cultural values and social responsibility, aiming to create a safer and more enriching travel experience for users [11]. - The company plans to continue refining its products and services while exploring new avenues in technology and social responsibility [11].

36氪获悉，近日，长城汽车研发中心开放新一轮对外参观活动。其中，智能交互实验室、环境风洞试验 室、整车环境风洞试验室、十米法EMC试验室等多个核心设施首次开放。可模拟高原低压、高温高 湿、强日照辐射等全球典型气候，对电池热管理、空调制冷、发动机散热等系统进行极限耐久测试。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of automotive manufacturing enterprises in China, which reached 20,572 in 2025, an increase of 803 enterprises compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.06% [1] - The automotive manufacturing sector accounts for 3.91% of the total industrial enterprises in China [1] - The data referenced is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating the reliability of the statistics presented [2] Group 2 - The report titled "2026-2032 China Automotive Manufacturing Industry Market Panorama Survey and Investment Prospects Analysis" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the automotive industry [1] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million to 20 million yuan since 2011, which reflects a significant change in the criteria for enterprise classification [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in deep industry research and providing comprehensive industry solutions [2]

Design Overview - The vehicle features a "boxy" design with a new grille at the front and enhanced side window trim for improved aesthetics and recognition [1] - Dimensions are 4912mm in length, 1950mm in width, and 1905mm in height, with a wheelbase of 2850mm [1] Powertrain and Performance - The model is equipped with Hi4 technology, utilizing a 1.5T engine with a maximum power output of 115 kW [3] - It offers three different battery capacities: 23.7 kWh, 33.7 kWh, and 44.7 kWh, with a maximum WLTC range of 191 km [3]

Group 1: Internet & Technology Sector Insights - The Hang Seng Technology sector has seen a valuation recovery since early 2025, with a PE-TTM of 20.05, below historical averages, indicating potential for value investment [3] - Southbound capital has accelerated inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with significant increases in holdings of major internet companies, suggesting a focus on profitability and technology business realization [4] - The internet industry is stabilizing in user traffic, with a shift towards high-quality growth driven by generative AI, which is expected to reshape valuations [5] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry Strategy - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cycle with strong demand driven by policy support and technological advancements, particularly in energy storage and electric vehicles [7] - The supply-demand relationship is improving, leading to price recovery across the lithium battery supply chain, with significant potential for material price increases in 2026 [9] - New technologies, such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, are expected to accelerate industrialization, enhancing the growth prospects of the lithium battery sector [10] Group 3: BYD Company Analysis - BYD's January 2026 sales reached 210,000 units, with a strong performance in overseas markets, indicating a robust growth engine for the company [15] - The company is launching new models aimed at high-end markets, which are expected to enhance market share and brand influence [18] - Revenue forecasts for BYD from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 854.9 billion, 995.9 billion, and 1,111.7 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 35.73 billion, 50.19 billion, and 62.65 billion yuan [18] Group 4: Leap Motor Company Insights - Leap Motor delivered 32,000 vehicles in January 2026, marking a 27.4% year-on-year increase, with plans to reach a sales target of 1 million units for the year [19] - The company is set to launch several new models, enhancing its product lineup and market presence [20] - Revenue projections for Leap Motor from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 66.27 billion, 104.12 billion, and 135.41 billion yuan, with significant growth anticipated [20] Group 5: Geely Automobile Performance - Geely's January 2026 sales reached 270,000 units, a 1.3% year-on-year increase, with strong performance in both fuel and electric vehicle segments [23] - The company is expanding its global strategy with new model introductions in overseas markets, which are expected to drive future growth [25] - Revenue forecasts for Geely from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 331.2 billion, 421.8 billion, and 485.8 billion yuan, with a focus on electric and high-end vehicle segments [25] Group 6: Long Wall Motor Company Overview - Long Wall Motor's January 2026 sales were 90,000 units, with a target of 1.8 million units for the year, indicating a positive sales trajectory [27] - The company is investing in new channels and models, which may impact short-term profitability but is expected to enhance long-term growth [28] - Revenue projections for Long Wall from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 222.8 billion, 275.5 billion, and 309.8 billion yuan, with a focus on international expansion [29] Group 7: SpaceX and Commercial Aerospace Developments - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI and the approval of a million-satellite application signify a strategic push towards space-based computing and energy solutions [31][32] - The integration of AI and satellite technology is expected to drive significant advancements in space energy demand, particularly solar energy [34] - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to grow rapidly, with a focus on solar energy solutions and satellite deployment [35]

Group 1 - The core index, the National Certificate Free Cash Flow Index (980092), has seen a strong increase of 1.2% as of February 9, 2026, with notable stock performances including Zhejiang Longsheng up 9.7%, Anfu Technology up 5.5%, and Weichai Power up 5.13% [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has also risen by 1%, with the latest price reported at 1.31 yuan, and has achieved a record high in both share count at 10.019 billion and total scale at 12.958 billion yuan [1] - Over the past four days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 931 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Certificate Free Cash Flow Index as of January 30, 2026, include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Gree Electric Appliances, SAIC Motor, and others, collectively accounting for 50.3% of the index [2] - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has demonstrated strong performance metrics, with a maximum monthly return of 9.25% since inception and a historical holding period profitability rate of 100% over six months [1]