Core Viewpoint - Coal will continue to serve as the "ballast" of China's energy system in the long term, supported by ongoing energy security strategies and gradual energy structure transformation [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - In 2025, coal prices are expected to show a trend of decline followed by an increase, with high port inventories in the first four months putting downward pressure on prices, while demand recovery in May to August will support prices [2] - The price of coking coal has been rising since July, which has led to multiple price increases in coke [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal supply is expected to improve in 2025 due to a continuous decline in raw coal supply since July, with annual production projected at 4.8 billion tons [3] - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to recover in the second quarter, with a narrowing decline expected for the year, while non-electric demand remains robust [3] - The supply-demand balance for coking coal is tighter compared to thermal coal, with stable production and reduced imports due to tariffs on U.S. coking coal [3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The central price of thermal coal is expected to remain high in 2026, with limited growth potential due to constraints on capacity expansion and regulatory policies [4] - Demand for electricity coal is projected to see slight growth in 2026, while non-electric coal demand may slow down [4] - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with limited imports and stable production, benefiting leading companies through capacity replacement [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with high long-term contract ratios that ensure stable profits include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [4] - Companies with cyclical elasticity in thermal coal include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and Huayang Co., Ltd. [4] - Integrated coal and electricity companies include Xinji Energy, Huaihe Energy, and Shaanxi Energy [4] - Companies with sustainable growth potential include Electric Power Investment Energy [4]

安全费用与资源税影响：安全费用计提标准上调，从 2004 年每吨 8 元 （煤与瓦斯突出矿井）到 2022 年 50 元，增加企业刚性成本。资源税 从按量计征改为按销售金额计征，山西已上调税率，未来不排除进一步 上调，增加企业税负压力。 动力煤市场盈利波动：2024 年动力煤市场价格波动，6 月中旬河南坑口 价格亏损 75 元/吨，11 月中旬盈利 88 元/吨。山西、内蒙古、陕西和安 徽盈利情况各异，反映市场动态变化。 焦煤市场经营压力：焦煤市场各地区生产成本差异显著，山西、安徽、 河南、河北成本各异。2015 年至 2024 年样本焦煤企业平均成本增长 显著，企业经营压力大。 来整体行业盈利水平和分红能力超预期释放。长期来看，能源结构转型是一个 漫长且复杂的过程，因此短期内煤炭作为保供压舱石的战略地位无法替代。 摘要 煤炭企业完全成本显著上升：2015 年至 2024 年，动力煤样本企业完 全成本从 216 元增至 306 元，焦煤样本企业从 546 元大幅增至 1,051 元，年化增幅 7.6%，主要受原材料、人工和折旧摊销成本驱动，使得 煤价难以回落至 2015 年水平。 下游需求与库存：12 月下游 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the coal industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to remain a cornerstone of energy supply in China, with supply-demand dynamics improving and supporting higher coal prices [4]. - In 2025, coal prices are projected to show a trend of decline followed by recovery, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][12]. - The supply of raw coal has been contracting since July 2025, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance, with an annual production target of approximately 4.8 billion tons [2]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Price Review - Thermal coal prices rebounded to new highs in 2025 due to supply constraints and recovering demand [1][16]. - Coking coal prices saw strong increases in the second half of 2025, driven by supply tightening and increased demand from steel production [14]. 2. 2025 Supply and Demand Review - Domestic raw coal supply showed a "high before low" trend, with a total production of 3.57 billion tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [18]. - The total coal import volume for 2025 is expected to be below 500 million tons, significantly lower than in 2024, with thermal coal imports down by 12.5% [26][32]. - Electricity demand from thermal power is expected to see slight growth in 2026, while non-electric demand from coal chemical industries remains robust [3][48]. 3. 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook - The coal price center is expected to maintain a high level in 2026, with potential for upward movement due to ongoing supply constraints and gradual energy structure transformation [3][4]. - The supply of thermal coal is projected to improve, with a slight increase in demand expected, particularly from the chemical sector [3][70]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios for stable profits, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [4]. - It also highlights cyclical stocks like Yancoal Energy and Jinzhong Coal, as well as integrated coal-electricity companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which has seen a decline of 0.47% as of December 8, 2025, with Xiamen Bank leading the gains among constituent stocks [1] - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has a latest scale of 47.8753 million yuan and a total of 41.1866 million shares, indicating a significant interest from investors with a net inflow of 3.4908 million yuan over the last three days [1] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, selecting 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends from state-owned enterprises [2] Group 2 - According to Huachuang Securities, dividend assets show value across various sectors including transportation, finance, energy, food and beverage, home appliances, real estate, metals, and publishing [2] - In the transportation sector, long-duration assets such as highways, ports, and railways exhibit defensive stability, with a recommendation for high-quality highway assets with growth potential [2] - The coal industry is experiencing enhanced profitability stability due to unexpected anti-involution policies and supply constraints, indicating a positive outlook for dividend assets amid high-quality economic development [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for a total of 16.99%, with notable stocks including COSCO Shipping Holdings and Jizhong Energy [3] - The performance of the top ten stocks shows varied results, with COSCO Shipping Holdings declining by 0.47% and Jizhong Energy by 0.85%, while Lu'an Environmental Energy remained unchanged [3]

12月3日，山西省国有资本运营有限公司（以下简称"山西省国运公司"）发布公告，根据山西省委、省 政府关于完善国资监管体制机制的战略部署，该公司将进行重大功能调整，涉及19家山西省属企业股权 的划转重组。 同日，北方铜业、蓝焰控股、晋控电力、山西焦煤、潞化科技、狮头股份、潞安环能、通宝能源、晋控 煤业、国新能源、山煤国际、广誉远、山西高速、ST太重、华阳股份、华阳新材、山西汾酒、山西焦 化等18家山西国资旗下上市公司也披露公告，宣布其公司控股股东与实际控制人之间产权层级减少。 多位受访人士对《证券日报》记者表示，此次改革力度空前，划转资产规模达3.63万亿元，涵盖了能 源、交通、金融、文化旅游等多个关键领域，标志着山西省国资监管体制改革进入深水区，将进一步优 化国有资本布局，提升国资监管效能。 山西省国运公司成立于2017年，由山西省政府授权山西省国资委履行出资人职责，山西省国资委再将出 资人管资本职责全部授权给该公司。该公司全面履行出资人管资本职责，开展专业化资本运营。 此次股权划转涉及19家山西省属企业，涵盖了山西省经济发展的多个关键领域。在能源领域，包括山西 焦煤集团、晋能控股集团、华阳新材料科技集团、潞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, but the overall upward trend is expected to continue due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly in the context of seasonal heating needs and industrial production ramping up towards year-end [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of December 5, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 785 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton week-on-week, while the Guangzhou port price is 825 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The main coking coal price at Jingtang port is 1630 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have increased significantly from 719 RMB in early June to 1140 RMB currently, representing a cumulative increase of 58.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply tightening due to regulatory actions and increased demand driven by seasonal factors [2][3]. - Supply constraints are a result of ongoing crackdowns on overproduction and safety inspections, limiting capacity release [2]. - Demand is rising as the energy sector enters a peak demand season, with early heating needs due to cold weather and increased industrial activity [2]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to recover through a four-step process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a balanced profit margin for coal and power companies [3]. - The ideal target price for coal is projected to be between 800-860 RMB/ton, with the breakeven point for power plants at 860 RMB [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced more by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for a rebound due to historical low prices and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4]. - Companies are expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with several listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans [4]. - Key investment lines include cyclical logic with companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal, dividend-focused firms like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, and growth-oriented companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rise, but it underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.77% against the CSI 300's 1.28% [2] - Inventory levels are increasing due to supply policies, while coal prices are declining rapidly. Despite increased production, supply constraints are expected to persist, leading to potential coal shortages in certain regions [6][32] - The report anticipates a rise in the coal price center in the fourth quarter, with current coal asset dividends being reasonable [6][32] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the coal sector's performance was 0.77% up, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points. A total of 21 stocks rose, while 14 fell, with New Dazhou A showing the highest increase of 14.98% [2] Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from November 28 to December 4, 2025, were 6.98 million tons, down 5% week-on-week and down 9.5% year-on-year. Total coal inventory was 24.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% week-on-week and 20.5% year-on-year [2][30] Price Trends in Coal Types - As of December 5, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 706 CNY/ton, up 1.15% week-on-week, while the price of imported thermal coal fell by 4.69% to 874 CNY/ton. Prices for coking coal and anthracite also showed declines [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others. For coking coal, companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended. Additionally, companies with improved profits in the coking sector are highlighted [6][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8] Core Insights - The rapid development of the AI industry in the U.S. has led to electricity shortages, which are expected to drive an increase in coal consumption. By 2025, domestic coal demand in the U.S. could rise to between 547 million and 640 million tons, representing an annual growth of 27% to 48% compared to 2025 levels. This shift may significantly reduce U.S. coal exports and disrupt the global coal trade balance, providing marginal support for coal prices globally and in China [2][6][21] Summary by Sections Coal Consumption and Production - In the first nine months of 2025, U.S. coal consumption reached 197.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Coal production during the same period was 236.29 million tons, up 5.0% year-on-year. Coal imports surged by 53.1% to 1.2 million tons, while exports fell by 11.4% to 42.45 million tons [6][16][26] Market Performance - The coal index in the Yangtze River region increased by 1.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 785 RMB per ton, down 31 RMB from the previous week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,630 RMB per ton, also down 40 RMB [5][28][51] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal market may remain robust due to strict safety regulations and low inventory levels at mines and ports. If cold weather increases daily consumption, coal prices could rise further. The report emphasizes the need to monitor extreme weather, procurement rhythms, and port inventory changes [5][29][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has upward momentum in December, driven by seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [4][7] - The coal mining industry is characterized by high asset quality and strong cash flow among leading companies, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for coal prices [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 5, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 785 RMB/ton, a decrease of 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production in the Sanxi region has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, down 0.61 percentage points [14][21] - Coastal and inland power plants have increased daily coal consumption by 7.3 and 35.3 thousand tons respectively [14][23] - The inventory of power plants in 25 provinces is 136.12 million tons, down 115 thousand tons year-on-year [14][34] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines has decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 84.5% [5][40] - The average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has increased, indicating stable import levels [5][44] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,630 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][41] 3. Coke - The production rate of independent coking plants has increased slightly to 72.66% [53][59] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to approximately 30 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week [57] - The price of coke at Rizhao port is 1,630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [54] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with the small block price at 930 RMB/ton [69] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [9]