证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 本周全球多数市场回调，周内波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周全球多数市场出现明显的回调，周 内多个交易日波动加大。本周美股三大指数回调，由于是在周 五公布的非农数据不及预期之后，美股出现明显调整。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.5，市盈率处于高于 35 以上 的偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率仍有 50.4，仍然处于 50 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大的纳斯达克指数的 市盈率仍然有 41.2，处于高于 40 的偏高位阶段，由于美股科技 股估值较高存在进一步消化估值的趋势，以及美股大型科技巨 头的新一轮科技风口还需等待，叠加美国经济和贸易等方面政 策的不确定性影响，美股科技股仍然容易出现调整；纳斯达克 指数、费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然中期 维度仍然容易出现进一步回调。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍有 38，仍然大幅高于历史中位数和平均数。由于美国经济和贸易 政策的不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend shows an increasing interest from Hong Kong buyers in purchasing properties in the Greater Bay Area, particularly in cities like Huizhou and Zhongshan, due to lower property prices compared to Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Hong Kong buyers are expanding their property search to the entire Greater Bay Area, with a notable interest in Huizhou's coastal properties due to their lower total prices [1]. - Recent projects promoted by Cheung Kong Property include approximately 400 units across four developments in the Greater Bay Area, with Huizhou Longbo Garden offering 300 units [1][2]. - Property prices in Huizhou, Zhongshan, and Dongguan have significantly decreased, making them attractive options for Hong Kong buyers. For instance, the price per square meter for Huizhou Longbo Garden is around 8,554 yuan, down from previous prices of 10,400 to 14,000 yuan per square meter [1]. Group 2: Buyer Preferences - Many Hong Kong buyers are looking for properties priced under 4 million yuan, primarily for self-use, and are particularly interested in retirement living options that offer better value compared to Hong Kong [2]. - The trend of Hong Kong buyers seeking properties in the Greater Bay Area is seen as a new market opportunity for real estate companies to cater to the specific needs of these buyers [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong property market has shown signs of recovery, with a slight decrease in registration numbers but remaining above 7,000 for two consecutive months, indicating active market transactions [3]. - Factors contributing to the rebound in Hong Kong property prices include a "super rebound" effect, optimistic expectations regarding economic recovery, and a decrease in mortgage rates encouraging buyers to enter the market [3].

Market Overview - In July, Hong Kong's new property market remained active with over 2,000 transactions, representing a month-on-month increase of over 30% [2] - New World Development reported strong business momentum at the beginning of the new fiscal year, with excellent sales results from various projects in mainland China and Hong Kong, leading to steady cash flow [2] Mainland Business - The high-end residential project Tianhui Xi in Shanghai successfully delivered all 448 units, selling out after two rounds of sales [5] - In Guangzhou, the new landmark project Yaosheng New World Plaza is delivering residential, commercial, and Grade A office spaces, showcasing New World's strong delivery capabilities [5] - The K11 ECOAST in Shenzhen launched multiple summer activities and added nearly 20 new brands, enhancing tenant diversity and customer experience [5] Awards and Recognition - Shanghai K11 ELYSEA and Ningbo THEPARK by K11Select won multiple awards at the BETTER FUTURE Hong Kong Design Awards 2025 for their architectural excellence [6] - New World Development's sustainability efforts were recognized with awards for the Hangzhou New World City Art Center and the "2030+ Sustainable Development Vision" [6] Hong Kong Business - The luxury residential project DEEP WATER PAVILIA滶晨II in Hong Kong sold 82 out of 88 units in its first round, achieving a sales rate of 93% [8] - The new landmark luxury residential project 柏蔚森 in Kai Tak has sold over 600 units since its launch, generating over HKD 4.2 billion in sales [9] - The core cultural landmark luxury project STATE PAVILIA皇都 sold out all units in the "皇都维港珍藏大宅" series, with an average price of nearly HKD 40 million [9] Events and Promotions - New World Development hosted two major international events at K11 MUSEA during the summer, including the "CHIIKAWA DAYS" exhibition and the CR7® LIFE Museum, attracting significant visitor traffic [10]

Core Viewpoint - New World Development has achieved remarkable sales results in various projects in mainland China and Hong Kong at the beginning of the new fiscal year, steadily accelerating cash flow and actively promoting residential project deliveries [1][2][3] Group 1: Mainland Business Performance - Several projects are leading the regional market, with two benchmark projects successfully delivered, including Shanghai Tianhui Xi and Guangzhou Yaosheng New World Plaza [1] - Guangzhou Yaosheng Zunfu has launched the second phase of distinctive units, with areas ranging from approximately 88 to 245 square meters, while Guangzhou New World Guanghui Zunfu has launched duplex units ranging from 92 to 125 square meters [1] - Shenzhen K11 ECOAST has attracted nearly 20 new brands through summer activities, enhancing its business offerings [1] - Shanghai K11 ELYSEA and Ningbo THE PARK by K11 Select have won gold awards at the BETTER FUTURE Hong Kong Design Awards 2025 in their respective categories [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Business Performance - The first round of sales for the South Island Phase 5 "DEEP WATER PAVILIA滶晨II" saw 82 out of 88 units sold, with total sales reaching nearly 8.8 billion HKD as of July 30 [2] - The new landmark luxury residence "THE PAVILIA FOREST柏蔚森" has sold over 600 units, generating sales exceeding 4.2 billion HKD, with the first delivery of units starting in September [2] - The luxury project "STATE PAVILIA皇都" has sold out all "皇都维港珍藏大宅" units, with an average price close to 40 million HKD [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - With ongoing business development and more new projects entering the market, New World is expected to see further performance progress in the new fiscal year [3] - The continuous launch of "滶晨II" and "THE PAVILIA FOREST柏蔚森" in the Hong Kong market is anticipated to maintain recent market momentum [3] - In the mainland market, projects in Guangzhou and Shenyang are continuing their strong sales momentum, with the first K11 Select project in Guangzhou set to debut [3] - The company will continue to adhere to a high-quality development strategy, focusing on its core business and pursuing stable growth in performance [3]

Group 1 - New World Development has achieved outstanding sales results in multiple projects in mainland China and Hong Kong, accelerating cash flow and actively promoting residential project deliveries [1] - In mainland China, several projects are leading the regional market, with key projects like Shanghai Tianhui Xi and Guangzhou Yaosheng New World Plaza successfully delivered [1] - The company has launched new units in Guangzhou, with sizes ranging from 88 to 245 square meters, and has introduced nearly 20 new brands at Shenzhen K11ECOAST [1] Group 2 - In Hong Kong, the first round of sales for the "DEEP WATER PAVILIA滶晨II" project saw 82 out of 88 units sold, totaling nearly 8.8 billion HKD, while the "柏蔚森" project has sold over 600 units with sales exceeding 4.2 billion HKD [2] - The luxury project "STATE PAVILIA皇都" has sold out all its units, with an average price close to 40 million HKD [2] - Cultural events at K11MUSEA, including the "CHIIKAWA DAYS" exhibition and the CR7LIFE museum, have attracted significant visitor interest [2] Group 3 - As business continues to progress and more new projects enter the market, New World is expected to see further performance improvements in the new fiscal year [3] - The ongoing sales momentum in Hong Kong with projects like "滶晨II" and "THE PAVILIA FOREST柏蔚森" is anticipated to sustain recent market enthusiasm [3] - The company will maintain its high-quality development strategy, focusing on core business and pursuing stable growth in performance [3]

Group 1 - The Guangzhou land auction market is becoming more cautious following rumors of tightened regulations, with several prime plots remaining unsold in the first half of the year [1] - In July, Guangzhou is promoting a new batch of land listings, including seven prime plots from Yuexiu, Tianhe, Liwan, and Huangpu districts, aiming to stimulate enthusiasm in the land auction market for the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - A specific plot has an area of 61,879 square meters and a planned construction area of 77,755 square meters, with a listing price of 1.137 billion yuan and a floor price of 14,268 yuan per square meter [2] - The plot is strategically located near key transportation routes and amenities, including proximity to the Guangzhou Railway Station and major highways, enhancing its attractiveness for development [5][17] Group 3 - The surrounding area of the plot boasts a well-developed living environment, with educational resources such as Guangzhou Zhujiang High School and other schools nearby, as well as commercial facilities like shopping centers [9][11] - The healthcare infrastructure includes Guangzhou Rentai Hospital, ensuring that residents have access to medical services [12] Group 4 - The Tianhe district is set to launch several residential plots, with three located in Tianhe and two in Liwan, indicating a focus on residential development in these areas [12][13] - The land supply in the surrounding areas has been limited, leading to a scarcity of new housing options, which may drive demand and prices higher [17][29]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to a stable economic outlook in mainland China and a positive risk appetite in the Hong Kong market, despite limited improvement in corporate earnings [2][5] - The market remains active with capital rotating across different sectors, and new trade negotiations between China and the US are anticipated to ease trade tensions [2][7] Sector Focus - Key market focus includes Hong Kong's June import and export data and the performance of companies like WuXi AppTec (2359) [3] Macroeconomic Insights - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, with an adjusted core PCE forecast for 2025-2027, indicating a cautious approach towards future inflation uncertainties [5] - The trade negotiations between the US and various countries are ongoing, with potential impacts on oil demand growth and international oil prices [5] Corporate News - Alibaba (9988) launched its first self-developed AI smart glasses, Quark Glasses, while JD.com (9618) initiated a plan to introduce 1,000 overseas brands within three years [7][10] - China Duty Free Group (1880) reported a 21% decline in net profit for the first half of the year, while China Resources Beverage (2460) issued a profit warning, expecting a 30% drop in net profit [7] Economic Indicators - The first half of 2025 saw a 1.8% decline in profits for industrial enterprises in mainland China, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a 7.6% drop [8] - The logistics costs in mainland China decreased, with the ratio of total logistics costs to GDP falling to 14% [8] Investment Climate - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the market and enhancing regulatory measures to support economic recovery and growth [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is working on improving corporate governance standards for listed companies [9]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Urban Development - Hangzhou's GDP grew from over 1 trillion yuan in 2015 to over 2 trillion yuan in 2023, with a projected 21,860 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 117.4% increase over ten years [2][4] - The city has seen a significant expansion in its shopping center space, increasing from 338.18 million square meters in 2015 to 1,345.15 million square meters by 2024, nearly tripling in size [2][4] - The number of shopping centers in Hangzhou rose from 36 in 2015 to 149 in 2024, indicating a robust growth in commercial real estate [2][4] Group 2: Commercial Landscape Transformation - The commercial real estate sector in Hangzhou experienced explosive growth from 2015 to 2017, with a peak annual supply of 173.59 million square meters in 2017, a 44% year-on-year increase [4] - Post-2020, the market shifted towards light-asset operations and smaller commercial entities, with non-standard projects gaining traction [4][5] - By 2024, the per capita shopping center area in Hangzhou is expected to reach 1.08 square meters per person, ranking fifth nationally, indicating a saturation in commercial space [4] Group 3: Local Giants and Their Evolution - Local commercial giants like Hangzhou Tower Shopping City and in银泰商业 have adapted to market changes, with in银泰商业 achieving over 3 billion annual visitors and 35 billion yuan in sales by 2024 [5][8] - Hangzhou Tower has focused on luxury brands, becoming the first shopping center in Zhejiang to surpass 10 billion yuan in sales in 2021 [6][7] - in银泰商业 has expanded its footprint across multiple cities, with a focus on innovative product lines and maintaining high customer traffic [8][10] Group 4: Competition from National Chains - Major national players such as Longfor, China Resources, and Wanda have established a strong presence in Hangzhou, with Longfor planning to open multiple shopping centers in the coming years [16][19][24] - China Resources has developed a comprehensive product matrix in Hangzhou, including high-end malls and innovative commercial formats, with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [21][22] - Wanda has shifted towards a light-asset model, focusing on innovative designs and community engagement to maintain its competitive edge [24][26] Group 5: Emerging Trends and Innovations - The rise of non-standard commercial projects and urban renewal initiatives has led to a diversification of Hangzhou's commercial landscape, with new business models emerging [32][34] - The integration of live-streaming and digital commerce has become a significant trend, with Hangzhou's digital economy generating 1.8737 trillion yuan in revenue in 2023 [32][33] - New commercial formats, such as the 24-hour live-streaming theme park, are being developed to enhance the shopping experience and attract younger consumers [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - After hoarding land for over 20 years, Li Ka-shing's family is now selling properties in the Greater Bay Area, targeting Hong Kong buyers with attractive pricing and living options [2][15][41]. Group 1: Property Launch and Pricing - Longfor Group has launched a property plan called "Greater Bay Area Dual Residence Life," offering four projects in mainland China, totaling 400 units for sale to Hong Kong citizens [3][4]. - The properties are located in Guangdong Province, close to Hong Kong, with prices ranging from 400,000 to 8 million yuan, catering to both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [5][6]. - The cheapest option is the Huizhou Longpu Garden, with a usable area of approximately 51 square meters priced around 400,000 yuan, while the most expensive is the Dongguan Haiyi Villa, with a usable area of about 307 square meters priced between 7 million and 8 million yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - A senior executive from Longfor Group encouraged Hong Kong citizens to buy properties in mainland China, highlighting that prices in the Greater Bay Area are only one-fifth to one-tenth of those in Hong Kong [9][12]. - The marketing emphasizes the benefits of owning a second home in the Greater Bay Area, promoting a new lifestyle that combines opportunities in Hong Kong with the advantages of living in the Bay Area [10][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Sales Strategy - Despite a sluggish mainland property market, the Li Ka-shing family appears to be accelerating their sales strategy, as evidenced by the discounted prices of properties like Dongguan Haiyi Villa, which had previously been marked down significantly [15][16][39]. - The Haiyi Villa project, which has been in development since 1999, has seen slow progress, with only half of the land developed after 15 years, leading to significant land idle fees imposed by local authorities [26][33]. Group 4: Financial Implications - Longfor Group's strategy of land hoarding has proven profitable, as even with price reductions, the cost of land acquisition remains low compared to current market prices [24][36]. - The company has maintained a low leverage ratio of 4%, indicating strong financial health and the ability to navigate the current market conditions without immediate financial strain [40].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones showing slight gains and the S&P 500 reaching a new historical high, indicating a robust market environment [9][11] - The report emphasizes the continuous development of artificial intelligence (AI), suggesting that the fundamental factors supporting the S&P 500 are stronger than during the dot-com bubble 25 years ago [9] - The report notes a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which may influence investment strategies, particularly in products linked to interest rates [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index stabilized above 25,000 points, reaching a 3-year and 8-month high, with significant inflows from northbound capital [13] - The report mentions that the advertising expenditure in Hong Kong continues to decline, with a 6% year-on-year drop in Q2 2025 [13] - The report indicates that global investors are diversifying away from U.S. dollar investments, with foreign capital increasing its holdings in domestic stocks and funds in China [13] Company-Specific Insights - The report discusses the performance of General Motors (GM), which reported a 35.39% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q2, attributing the drop to tariff costs [11] - Lockheed Martin's net profit fell by 79.2% year-on-year due to project provisions, indicating challenges in the defense sector [11] - Texas Instruments reported a 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2, with revenue rising by 16%, reflecting strong operational performance [11][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Dongfang Zhenxuan (1797), highlighting a 28% year-on-year growth in GMV for June 2025, marking a return to growth for its core business [22] - Zhongsheng Holdings (881) is identified as a leading automotive dealer in China, with over 400 dealerships and a strong customer base, making it a focus for upcoming financial reports [22] - Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB) is recommended for its strong user ecosystem and potential for cross-selling in Southeast Asia [24]