Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity in the medium to long term, with a "positive" industry rating maintained [1] Market Performance - Last week, the steel sector rose by 1.01%, outperforming the broader market; the special steel sector increased by 1.80%, while long products fell by 3.15% and flat products rose by 1.24% [2] - Iron ore sector increased by 4.12%, while steel consumption materials and trade circulation sectors fell by 1.61% and 1.78% respectively [2] Supply Situation - As of February 13, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 86.4%, up by 0.72 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 21.0%, down by 27.11 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 6.96 million tons, a decrease of 248,600 tons or 3.45% week-on-week [2] Demand Situation - As of February 13, the consumption of five major steel products was 6.891 million tons, down by 715,800 tons or 9.41% week-on-week [2] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down by 48.24% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 13, social inventory of five major steel products was 10.267 million tons, up by 9.17% week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 4.161 million tons, also up by 4.71% week-on-week [3] Price and Profit Situation - As of February 13, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,409.5 yuan/ton, down by 0.14% week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,579.7 yuan/ton, down by 0.03% week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar was 80 yuan/ton, up by 23.08% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 14, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 754 yuan/ton, down by 1.44% week-on-week [4] - The price for primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] Overall Assessment - The current inventory pressure for the five major steel products is relatively limited, with overall inventory at a historically low level and accumulation speed slower than previous years [5] - The profit margins for ordinary steel are favorable, indicating significant improvement potential for ordinary steel companies, which may lead to value recovery in the steel sector [5]

CHINESE NEW YEAR 马年大吉 迎新纳福 01 江苏 新春期间，江苏将加大直达居民游客的普惠力度，推出文旅消费券、景区门票优惠券、酒店代金券等300余项文旅消费优惠措施，组织全省200多家星级饭 店推出"年夜饭＋住宿＋体验"等高性价比组合套餐，全省130家等级旅游景区推出门票优惠政策，近百个乡村旅游重点村镇开展"游购乡村"促消费活动。 日前，南京市规划和自然资源局发布规划编制批前公示，涉及地块原为南京克莉丝汀"甜蜜城堡"。根据公示，地块性质拟由科研用地调整为宅地、社区用 地、绿地等，其中3幅宅地总面积约13.77公顷。 为了满足春节期间返乡人员和各类企业的不动产登记办理需求，2月15日至2月23日（春节期间），江苏全省不动产登记全程"不打烊"，市民可以选择分布 在全省各地的87个线下服务窗口或"线上苏小登"办理，办事无忧安心过年。 02 国内 应急管理部召开除夕视频调度会，会议听取各地安全防范工作情况汇报，指出烟花爆竹运输、销售、存储、燃放进入高峰期，安全风险高，每一个环节， 每一个点位都不能有丝毫松懈，要认真吸取教训、引以为戒，坚决杜绝任何麻痹思想、侥幸心理，时刻绷紧安全生产这根弦，多下未雨绸缪 ...

2月13日下午5时，连云港徐圩新区石化产业基地的职工食堂张灯结彩，红灯笼、红"福"字、红窗花透着 浓浓的年味。这个春节假期，基地有80多名外地员工坚守一线。公司特意腾出食堂，摆上10桌"暖心团 圆宴"——连云港特色的红烧老鹅、清蒸海鲈鱼、糖醋黄板鲫陆续上桌，糖果、橘子、福袋点缀其间， 充满年味与温情。 "政府出台鼓励留连过年的好政策，我就把媳妇孩子从老家河北接过来了。公司还准备了这么丰盛的团 圆饭，大家围坐在一起唠家常，跟在家一样。"在徐圩新区石化产业基地的职工食堂里，员工田少良一 家三口和工友们一起吃着团圆饭。妻子周女士第一次来连云港过年，"以为就是一家三口团聚，没想到 有那么多人一起吃团圆饭，还给孩子们准备了零食大礼包，年味儿这么浓！" 江苏目前有外来务工人员超过800万人。这个春节假期，很多人因为各种原因选择留苏过年。记者从省 人社厅了解到，各地人社部门纷纷出台具有地方特色的稳岗留工政策措施，给留苏过年的外来务工人员 及其家属送去关怀和温暖——南京出台"暖心十条"稳岗留工政策，定向定点为重点缺工企业提供招工服 务保障，为春节假期连续生产的大型企业给予最高50万元稳岗补贴；苏州引导企业留工复工，对安排外 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.01%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The supply situation indicates a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.4%, with a slight increase of 0.72 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand has decreased, with a total consumption of 689.1 million tons of steel, down 9.41% week-on-week [36] - Social inventory of steel has increased by 9.17% week-on-week, totaling 1,026.7 million tons, while factory inventory has also risen by 4.71% [45] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the comprehensive index for ordinary steel at 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 0.14% week-on-week [51] - Profit margins for rebar steel have improved, with a profit of 80 CNY/ton, an increase of 23.08% week-on-week [59] Supply Summary - As of February 13, the average daily pig iron production was 2.3049 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.91% [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces has decreased significantly by 27.11 percentage points to 21.0% [27] - The total production of the five major steel products was 6.96 million tons, down 3.45% week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products was 6.891 million tons, a decrease of 71.58 million tons week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down 48.24% week-on-week [36] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.443 million square meters, down 21.2% week-on-week [36] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products reached 10.267 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 86.26 million tons [45] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 4.161 million tons, up 4.71% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 4.73 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,579.7 CNY/ton, down 2.29 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,343 CNY/ton, down 8.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [59] - The profit for electric furnace steel was -48 CNY/ton, while the profit for rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [59] Investment Recommendations - Focus on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Consider companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring plans like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [3] - Pay attention to special steel companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

当传统钢铁产业与人工智能相遇，会擦出怎样的火花？智能技术重塑传统制造，钢铁冶炼的"黑箱操 作"是如何变得透明可感？记者来到南京钢铁集团有限公司，实地感受数据与智能驱动下，传统钢铁行 业的生产变化。 数字赋能生产 走进南钢智慧运营中心，一块长42米、高6米的超高清管控屏映入眼帘。从料场到烧结，再到高炉、转 炉、轧钢，铁矿石变成成品钢的所有生产环节都清晰呈现，铁矿石运输皮带转速、转炉冶炼温度、钢材 轧制等关键参数一目了然。 "这张'数字工厂全景图'，主要依托数字孪生技术将实时生产数据注入三维模型，把实体工厂转化为数 字工厂。从无人化料场，到烧结、球团、焦化，再到高炉炼铁，轻点鼠标就能实现远程可视化操作，达 成一键炼铁炼钢。"南钢炼铁事业部技术处数字化应用室主任刘永辉介绍，通过虚拟仿真、人工智能等 先进技术，炼铁生产全流程得到优化重组，生产效率和产品质量显著提升。其中，铁水生产一级品率从 人工操作的80%，提高到99%。 在传统钢铁冶炼中，高炉内冶炼属于看不到的"黑箱操作"，产品质量把控依赖工人经验和间接数据。如 今，高炉周边布设了上千个传感器，实时采集炉内图像、温度、压力、煤气流成分等多维度数据，再通 过大模型融 ...

当传统钢铁产业与人工智能相遇，会擦出怎样的火花？智能技术重塑传统制造，钢铁冶炼的"黑箱操 作"是如何变得透明可感？记者来到南京钢铁集团有限公司，实地感受数据与智能驱动下，传统钢铁行 业的生产变化。 创新引领智造 南钢日常生产运营会产生海量数据，如何处理、利用好这些数据资源，成为企业高质量发展的关键。公 司数智转型的核心支撑，是企业自主打造的、以数据治理和人工智能为驱动的企业级"工业大脑"。 "我们自主研发了工业互联网平台，高效采集和整合各类数据。智慧能源管控一体化平台通过对能源管 理、生产调度、设备监控、操作执行等多个环节进行数据共享和协同，实现生产节能降耗。"南钢子公 司江苏金恒信息科技股份有限公司技术发展部副主任马超告诉记者，当前南钢的智能化改造、数字化转 型和网络化连接已迈入第二阶段，人工智能和数据资产化是数智化发展的两大着力点。 南钢正积极探索大语言模型和AI图像识别技术在生产运营、设备运维、客户服务等场景的应用，推动 数智化从"支撑业务"向"驱动创新、创造价值"升级。在数据治理方面，企业构建"云—边—端"三位一体 大数据平台，实现研发、管理和生产业务领域数据的汇聚与互通，对采集数据进行实时监控与校验 ...

走进南钢智慧运营中心，一块长42米、高6米的超高清管控屏映入眼帘。从料场到烧结，再到高炉、转 炉、轧钢，铁矿石变成成品钢的所有生产环节都清晰呈现，铁矿石运输皮带转速、转炉冶炼温度、钢材 轧制等关键参数一目了然。 "这张'数字工厂全景图'，主要依托数字孪生技术将实时生产数据注入三维模型，把实体工厂转化为数 字工厂。从无人化料场，到烧结、球团、焦化，再到高炉炼铁，轻点鼠标就能实现远程可视化操作，达 成一键炼铁炼钢。"南钢炼铁事业部技术处数字化应用室主任刘永辉介绍，通过虚拟仿真、人工智能等 先进技术，炼铁生产全流程得到优化重组，生产效率和产品质量显著提升。其中，铁水生产一级品率从 人工操作的80%，提高到99%。 在传统钢铁冶炼中，高炉内冶炼属于看不到的"黑箱操作"，产品质量把控依赖工人经验和间接数据。如 今，高炉周边布设了上千个传感器，实时采集炉内图像、温度、压力、煤气流成分等多维度数据，再通 过大模型融合工艺机理参数数据进行2小时趋势分析预测，炉温预测准确率超90%。 过去看不见的炉内冶炼过程，如今转化为直观的数字图谱，实现了透明管控。在炉温智能预测、操作炉 型识别及优化、炉况智能诊断等一系列智能化应用模型集群 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing cash dividend ratio of China Shenhua and identifies five key reasons for this trend, highlighting the overall potential for dividend increases in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors [4]. Group 1: China Shenhua's Dividend Increase - From 2008 to 2016, the average cash dividend ratio was 39%, which surged to 151% in 2017, followed by an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024 [4]. - The five reasons for the increase in cash dividend ratio include: 1) Low debt-to-asset ratio compared to the industry 2) Reduced capital expenditure in recent years 3) Profit recovery with high retained earnings and low asset impairment relative to profit 4) High ownership ratio by major shareholders with potential for mergers and acquisitions 5) Supportive dividend policies [4]. Group 2: High Dividend Yield in Steel and Aluminum Sectors - As of February 6, 2026, only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors have a dividend yield above 3%, with notable examples including Youfa Group (6.90%) and Baosteel (4.18%) [5]. - The article predicts that if the dividend ratio remains stable in 2025, the projected net profit for that year aligns with consensus estimates [5]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Potential in Steel and Aluminum - Three key factors are identified that may enhance the dividend potential for steel and electrolytic aluminum companies: 1) Inclusion of market value management in performance assessments for state-owned enterprises, encouraging higher cash dividends [6]. 2) Significant entry of insurance capital into the market, favoring high-dividend assets [6]. 3) Anticipated decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, which may lead to increased cash dividend ratios [6]. Group 4: Analysis of Dividend Capability - Companies with strong dividend potential are characterized by high retained earnings relative to market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt-to-asset ratio below 60% [7]. - As of February 6, 2026, only 14 companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, with top scoring companies identified [7].

Market Overview - Recent market trends show rotation across multiple sectors, with a focus on investment opportunities ahead of the holiday season. Minsheng Securities reports that the market is expected to experience a mild tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with regulatory bodies prioritizing stable operations. Historical data indicates that the week before the Spring Festival is an optimal time for A-share investments, likely shifting market focus towards small and medium-sized growth stocks [2][4]. Sector Performance - The steel sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Baodi Mining and Dazhong Mining hitting their daily price limits. Baodi Mining's stock price reached 8.71 yuan per share, with a closing increase of 9.97% [5][6][8]. - Analysts suggest that rare metals are entering a new cycle of prosperity, driven by global supply chain restructuring and the rise of emerging industries. This positions rare metals as critical resources for energy transition and high-end manufacturing [4]. Company Developments - Baodi Mining has completed the acquisition of an 82% stake in Congling Energy, enhancing its iron ore resource base by approximately 21.75%, bringing total resources to about 460 million tons. This acquisition is expected to improve the company's operational capabilities significantly [8]. - The steel industry is also benefiting from favorable news, with expectations for structural opportunities as the market evolves. Analysts predict that by 2026, the steel sector may see a reduction in internal competition, leading to improved profitability in the special steel segment [9]. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has shown signs of recovery, with several banks, including Qingdao Bank and Zijin Bank, experiencing stock price increases. Analysts from Zhongjin Company believe that the focus on bank performance will be a key theme for the year, with high-growth banks expected to see their valuations rise above 1 times book value [10][11].

Group 1 - The latest price of stainless steel plate is 12,725.00 yuan per ton as of February 10, with a 10.41% increase over the last 60 days [2][4] - Relevant manufacturers include Benxi Steel Plate (000761), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Jiuli Special Materials (002318), Yongxing Materials (002756), Xining Special Steel (600117), Nanjing Steel (600282), Jiuquan Iron & Steel (600307), Fushun Special Steel (600399), Wujin Stainless Steel (603878), and Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995) [2][4] Group 2 - Cyclical stocks refer to publicly listed companies in raw material production, whose profits are significantly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices [2][4] - Utilizing the price fluctuation data from the business community to identify buying signals for cyclical stocks before quarterly and annual reports is an important method for investing in cyclical stocks [2][4]